Tuesday, July 14, 2009

10 More Reasons Not To Trust The Government

Although I changed the title, I found this little tidbit of useful information from Yahoo's Tech-Ticker, who in turn condensed it from Mortimer Zuckerman's WSJ piece. Zuckerman says, "The recent unemployment numbers have undermined confidence that we might be nearing the bottom of the recession." I would add that it's the government's willful subterfuge in masking the recent unemployment numbers that undermines confidence not just in the economy, but it in the government itself.

"The Bureau of Labor Statistics preliminary estimate for job losses for June is 467,000," writes Zuckerman, "which means 7.2 million people have lost their jobs since the start of the recession. The cumulative job losses over the last six months have been greater than for any other half year period since World War II, including the military demobilization after the war. The job losses are also now equal to the net job gains over the previous nine years, making this the only recession since the Great Depression to wipe out all job growth from the previous expansion.

"Here are 10 reasons we are in even more trouble than the 9.5% unemployment rate indicates" [condensed]:

  • 185,000 workers in the June number were the product of statistical sampling, but could not be verified by the government.
  • Companies are asking employees to take unpaid leave.
  • 1.4 million unemployed workers weren't counted because they're not searching for work.
  • Part-time employment has doubled to 9 million.
  • The work week is 48 minutes shorter than when the recession began.
  • The number of long-term unemployed (4.4 million) is at an all-time high.
  • There were no wage gains in June.
  • The goods-producing sector lost over 223,000 jobs just in June.
  • When business picks up, businesses will just add hours to existing workers, rather than create new jobs.
  • Old business lines are being eliminated entirely, not shrunk down, decreasing the odds that the unemployed will be able to find work.
Now read this from Ilargi:

Whitney...provides the worst unemployment prediction emanating to date from a "serious" finance source: 15%. U3, that is. Which would, if you allow me the back on the envelope, take U6 to around 30%, and Shadowstats' alternate U6 likely between 35% and 40%. If Whitney's right, the US economy would fall into what can only be called a pitch black hole.

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