Submitted by Project Mayhem
Deadly flu spreads across Ukraine
Deadly flu continues to spread across Ukraine, criminal World Health Organization lies to the public, MSM maintains radio silence.
There are many aspects to this story. It is impossible to know where to begin -- let alone cover all the pertinent facts in just one article. Those who have followed my Zerohedge columns in the past may be aware the subject of pandemic influenza has been a regular feature, precisely because there have been multiple signs indicating a global pandemic would be exploited (and perhaps even initiated) by governments and international banks for political purposes.
The signs have been building, including as I previously reported, forced quarantine orders inadvertently published by the CDC. What do these people know which the public does not?
SUMMARY
Over the past two weeks, what appears to be a particularly virulent form of the flu has been spreading in Ukraine and adjacent Eastern European countries. This new flu is, in my opinion, a lethal new strain which has mutated (or was released). I speak with a background in virology. This new mutated flu virus appears to have a remarkable affinity for the lungs and is causing deaths to a much higher extent than the previous swine flu. Something in the virus has changed. I have covered this incredibly important story for two weeks now in my weekly column This Week In Mayhem, which is generally published on Monday mornings.
Regardless, there has been almost zero (NOTHING. NADA. SILENCE.) mention of the Ukraine epidemic in the mainstream media, a fact which I find both astonishing and profoundly disturbing. There is apparently collusion at the highest levels of government and media to suppress this information. There are now 1.3 million infected in Ukraine, and over 75,000 hospitalized -- IN FOURTEEN DAYS. This is very serious! Based on previous clinical data we can expect over 8,000 to be dead or soon to be dead. Forward projection of the epidemic is difficult because the clinical attack rate is unknown -- but myself and my associates remain concerned it may be quite high. Deaths globally may be in the millions. Let's hope this is not the case.
The new flu strain, which I contend is spreading in Ukraine and Belarus, is characterized by a lightning form of viral pneumonia -- very similar to what happened in 1918. The new flu virus appears to have profound tissue affinity for sialic acid receptors deep in the lungs, replicating in the alveoli. To put it mildly, the lungs fill with blood. Quotes from Ukrainian officials included quotes such as "total destruction of the lungs." Ukrainian Doctor Viktor Bachinsky has stated, "The virus causing the deaths is extremely aggressive -- it doesn't first infect the throat (as is common in flu), but strikes the lungs directly." In Ukraine's western Chernovetsky region, an epicenter of the outbreak, doctors have said lab tests showed at least some of the fatalties appeared to be caused by a flu dissimilar to both common flu and swine flu. In other words, a mutant flu. This claim of a 'mutant flu' has been echoed by Ukrainian public health officials such as Dr. Vasyl Lazoryshynetz. Unfortunately, as noted in the above Russia Today video, pharmacies across the country are sold out of antivirals. To the hard of thinking -- yes, this is currently happening in Ukraine.
I have multiple sources confirming spot outbreaks of viral pneumonia in Eastern Europe, including official and non-official entities. In terms of the current situation, there appear to be a high number of pneumonia patients in Ukrainian and Belerusian hospitals. This epidemic has not shut down Ukrainian society yet, but it has caused many people to become concerned, and to buy up essential medicines. Reports from doctors in Belarus indicate they do not expect this deadly new flu epidemic to peak until Christmas or later. This is why it is important to analyze the situation and viral genetics now, and if necessary, contain the spread of the virus while it is still possible -- something the criminals at WHO do not appear interested in doing. These idiots at WHO have yet to release the viral gene sequences (even though they have had them for two weeks), and are now outright lying in their press releases, which I detail later. In terms of how dangerous this new flu strain could potentially be, I conducted a rough analysis of the Ukrainian government statistics, yielding a projected case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.61% -- over six times as lethal as seasonal flu.
Lastly, there are signs the virus is genetic engineered.
DATA FROM THE UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT
The Ukrainian government has been releasing daily data updates on the numbers of "acute respiratory infections" , the number of related hospitalizations , and the number of deaths since Oct 28, 2009. These reported numbers have increased substantially over the past two weeks, from near zero before Halloween to over a million as of today. It is important to remember that these statistics are not laboratory confirmed H1N1 cases (due to the state of the Ukrainian medical system), but we can cautiously assume at this point the vast majority of ARI (acute respiratory infection) in Ukraine with rapid progression to viral pneumonia are caused by influenza A virus. This is because a large subset of these samples are coming up positive of Influenza A, and a smaller subset tested by rt-rtPCR are coming up positive for influenza A/H1N1, or what is more commonly known as 'swine flu'. This suggests we are dealing with a viral epidemic of influenza.
This is not 'swine flu' as previously known. Statistically, the only way for this to be 'swine flu' is if it has mutated (or if the data is wrong). . . We will get to that in a minute.
As I mentioned , this data comes directly from the Ukrainian government. In the past two weeks, ARI have gone from near zero before Halloween to affecting 1.3 million Ukrainians. Over a million people are currently sick with probable H1N1. More importantly, there are over 75,000 total hospitalized at the time of the writing of this article, Monday 11/16. Based on these two figures (75,000 / 1.3 million), approximately 5.6% of those infected with this new ARI end up at the hospital. This is the critical statistic which allows us to estimate how f*cked we actually might be.
Officially, there are 299 deaths, but a realistic estimate shows this is easily one order of magnitude too low. Realistically deaths are between 2,000 - 8,000 people from this probable new strain of the flu -- so far. The number of dead is sure to rise dramatically, as we are only two weeks into this new epidemic. Which brings us to our estimation of the case fatality rate (CFR). Again, I would love to be wrong about this. Let's hope I am.
ZH ESTIMATION OF THE CASE FATALITY RATE
The current American strain 'swine flu' has a case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.1% or less. Seasonal flu has a CFR of 0.1%. The 1957 pandemic had a case fatality rate of 0.5%. The deadly 1918 pandemic had a CFR of 2 - 5%. Based on the Ukrainian government statistics, the new mutated Ukrainian flu has a CFR of 0.61% or higher -- that is, 6.1x as lethal as seasonal flu , perhaps more. Perhaps less if our assumptions are wrong.
We arrive at the 0.61% CFR statistic based on the number of hospitalizations in Ukraine vs. the number of infections. This estimate is only as good as the underlying data, but I have confidence it is in the ball-park (order of magnitude). I consider the official reported number of deaths (299) to be unreliable for political reasons. No one wants to be the country with the lethal flu. Doctors, especially those in Belarus (which is a dictatorship) feel strong administrative pressure to label influenza viral pneumonia deaths as something else, for example cardiac failure. Thus , ARI hospitalizations are the more reliable indicator for what is happening on the ground. Deaths can be implied from hospitalization statistics, assuming we are dealing with a form of H1N1 influenza.
Last week, the medical journal the Lancet published a meta-analysis of the (old) swine flu confirming a JAMA report that approximately 11% of hospitalized patients who had contracted the (old) swine flu died. We will use this 11% figure as our "middle case". The official government reported deaths (299) are considered “best case”. For a "worst case" estimate, we can assume that 25% of hospitalized flu patients will eventually die. We can use these 11% and 25% statistics to estimate the case fatality rate of the Ukrainian flu. The method is as follows:
To calculate the "middle case" and infer fatalities, we take 0.11 (11%, the figure from the JAMA) and multiply it by the number of Ukrainian hospitalizations on a particular date, to yield the expected number of ultimate fatalities. This method assumes the vast majority of reported ARI are from H1N1 swine flu. Using the November 15th data, this gives us 8345 expected fatalities. We take the number of expected fatalities and divide this into the total number who are estimated to be infected on the same particular data point (Nov 15). So 8345 deaths / 1.36 million infections , which yields the case fatality rate, which in this case is 0.61%. Obviously this is a rough estimate, but it is probably within an order of magnitude of the real CFR.
Assumptions for this model:
1) The vast majority of reported Ukrainian ARI are some form of H1N1 flu.
2) The data from the Ukrainian government for infections and hospitalizations is reliable and is not 'massaged' for political purposes.
1) If A1 and A2 are true, then statistically speaking we must be dealing with mutated H1N1 influenza (mutated 'swine flu').
In any case, this estimated CFR for Ukrainian flu is over six times higher than seasonal flu. Not good. Let's hope this is wrong. Our "worst case" 25% estimate gives a CFR of 1.39%, enough to eventually shut down commerce and society across the planet -- but fortunately it is likely this "worst case" estimate is far off the mark. For our estimates here, including the CFR estimate of 0.61% using the data from the JAMA -- supposing this estimate was purely based on Ukrainian government statistics, we could consider such an arbitrarily high Case Fatality Rate unreliable , and the product of bad data. However, in the context of multiple reports from individuals as well as state health authorities of MANY cases of viral pneumonia and thousands of patients in intensive care in Belarus and Ukraine, we consider this CFR estimate to make much more sense. That is, it fits the data on the ground of a worsening flu pandemic with a tendency towards viral pneumonia.
The old swine flu did not cause viral pneumonia, generally speaking. The new apparently mutated swine flu does, to an extent orders of magnitude higher. Thus , there must have been changes to the receptor binding domain , among other genes (perhaps PA, PB2, and NS1).
CRIMINAL BEHAVIOUR OF THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION
I am not fond of the World Health Organization. In my opinion, it is a tool of corrupt billionaire international financiers with which to achieve their dark global geopolitical objectives in the area of public health. These objectives are rarely in the public interest. We could spend paragraphs discussing deep corruption at WHO. One important point to remember is their obvious complicity and criminal cover-up regarding MMR vaccine contamination with Avian Leukosis Virus (ALV) , which may induce cancer.
The point here regarding WHO and the potential outbreak Ukraine is several:
-WHO has yet to release the gene sequences of the Ukrainian flu, despite possessing them for almost two weeks. They have also had a “team” on the ground in Lviv for a similar period of time. Where are the flipping gene sequences? The WHO has claimed there are no “big” mutations in the flu strain (apparently ruling out a viral reassortant), but has so far refused to release the Ukrainian flu gene sequences to the Internet community for analysis. This is reprehensible. What are these people doing? The world could know very quickly what we were dealing with if this genetic data was published, but instead it's being kept secret for whatever ulterior motives the WHO is operating under.
-WHO issued a press release on Friday which contained the following astonishing quote, bordering on deception.
“Because of a sharp rise in pandemic influenza cases one week ago in Ukraine, the Ministry of Health requested assistance from WHO European Regional Office to evaluate and respond. The initial analysis of information indicates that the numbers of severe cases do not appear to be excessive when compared to the experience of other countries and do not represent any change in the transmission or virulence of the virus.”
Okay, let's see: Ukraine asked WHO to respond. WHO sent a team to Lviv. So far so good, despite the missing gene sequences. Now wait, what? The WHO publishes their all-star analysis... “The number of severe cases do not appear to be excessive”? Are you kidding me? Please explain how 75,000 hospitalizations in two weeks is not 'excessive'? And how all the pharmacies sold out of antivirals? And how Ukraine is under de-facto martial law? And that Yushenko gave a prime-time speech more or less threatening political dissidents if they don't follow government orders? Or that school in Ukraine is canceled for three weeks? Half the country under quarantine? Hospitals seeing a surge of viral pneumonia patients? What gives? Are these people at WHO retarded or are they criminals?
Oh and of course the gem of this press release by WHO: That “[ the numbers of severe cases ] do not represent any change in the transmission or virulence of the virus.” Hahahaa! You are going to tell me that Ukraine went from two cases to 1.3 million cases in 14 days , and that doesn't represent any change in transmission? Is this supposed to be a joke? These pharmaceutical crooks damn well better explain themselves if you are going to make claims so obviously contrary to reality. Does the WHO contend the Ukrainian government just pulling these figures out of the air? What of the case reports of rapidly deteriorating viral pneumonia in Belarus, Ukraine, and Romania? What is causing this? What about the statements from Ukrainian health officials that we have a new flu strain? On what data are WHO basing these preposterous claims, which fly in the face of reality and common sense? Why not release the Ukrainian gene sequences? There is an obvious spike in mortality and pneumonia – why? Does WHO contend this is another pathogen besides influenza? If so, what? Honestly, this statement issued Friday November 13th from WHO is so obviously full of lies I really don't even have to comment; anyone with a brain can see they are not telling us the truth.
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_11_13/en/index.html
-WHO dodges questions from Bloomberg and Sun Media regarding a mutation in Ukrainian flu during last weeks press conference.
Phil Serafino, Bloomberg: Dr Shindo........I have a second question also which may not be your area of expertise but have you heard anything about the mutation of the virus or has it changed at all - are we looking at anything different than a few months ago?
Dr Shindo /WHO: Well, I can answer that question first. The virus is quite stable. It hasn't changed........
Joseph: This is Joseph from Kuala Lumpur - I am from the Sun Media......I just want to ask whether or not any slight mutation even a drift variant has been noticed so far?
Dr Shindo / WHO: Amazingly this virus is very stable and part of the reason, virologists (are saying) is because of the lack of pre-existing immunity in population so that virus doesn't have to mutate to escape from people's immunity. So it's quite stable.
What a joke! You'd think these fools at WHO were politicians , rather than doctors! Twice, the WHO official dodges questions from reporters (Bloomberg nonetheless!) on whether we are dealing with a critical new mutation in Ukraine sequences responsible for higher lethality and infectivity. Unbelievable. Again, I suggest these actions by WHO, taken in concert, are more akin to the actions of a criminal syndicate than to a global public health service. Lies and evasion. Stonewalling. Is this how we expect public servants to behave, especially on time-crucial issues upon which millions of lives depend? Unfortunately this is par for the course. Perhaps we should re-evaluate our conception of the world in which we live. hint: it is so incredibly corrupt, it defies man's imagination.
-Someone personally contacted WHO asking point-blanc , “Is there a critical mutation in this flu in Eastern Europe” and was met with silence.
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