Tuesday, August 6, 2013

BLS Misrepresenting 2013 Job Gains By Over 40%

Jolt caps
Jolt caps (Photo credit: John Baichtal)
Many were surprised when last month we exposed the divergent lies at the Bureau of Labor Statistics when comparing two otherwise convergent data sets: the monthly all-important Non-Farm Payroll report and the (one month-delayed) JOLTS survey.

Specifically, what we showed is that the Net Turnover from JOLTS (Hires less Separations) is now 40% below the trendline of cumulative job additions implied by the Non-Farm Payroll report's Establishment survey which has become the holy grail for both the stock market and the Federal Reserve's tapering ambitions.

Following the release of the June JOLTS update, we can report that the divergence within BLS data series continues, and that the average monthly US job gain for the first 6 months of 2013 is either 198K if one uses the non-farm payroll data, or 30% lower, 140K to be specific, if one uses the JOLTS net turnover number. Read more >>
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