The BPC, whose initial analysis of the US default has become the staple "go-to" analysis for Treasury cash obligations and key events in the days surrounding and following the X-Date, has released a new update on when the US runs out of money.
The latest: October 22 - November 1. Which means that if it so desires, the GOP can and probably will delay a debt ceiling bargain until the last possible moment which may well be, appropriately enough,Halloween. In the meantime, the US Treasury now has about $40 billion in total cash on hand and available extraordinary measures and declining fast.
The latest complete note:
As BPC’s X Date Window Narrows, Economic Risks Grow
- BPC’s Updated X Date Range: October 22 – November 1
- Major Debt Rollovers: October 17 - $120 billion; October 24 - $93 billion
- Major Payments Due During X-Date Range: $12 billion in Social Security benefits on October 23; $6 billion in interest on the public debt on October 31; over $55 billion in major payments on November 1
- Likely Impact of Shutdown on X-Date Range: If resolved shortly – negligible; if prolonged – a couple days