Initial Jobless Claims Soar

And the economic (downside) hits keep on coming: PMI, ISM, Non-Mfg ISM, ADP and now Initial claims - five out of five misses as the US economy slowly but surely joins the rest of the world in resuming its downward trajectory. Moments ago initial claims printed a whopping 385K, far above expectations of 353K, and far above the upwardly revised 357K (was 353K before). This was the biggest miss to expectations since November. Also, excluding the Sandy aberrations  this was the biggest two week surge in claims since April 2011.

Continuing claims also missed, printing at 3063K, above expectations of 3050K. Sure enough, the excuses begin: sequester, Easter (two states estimated which means actual number is likely even worse), weather (unclear if warm or hot), Cyprus, and generally, stuff... Just not the economy. Never the actual economy. Because it is unpossible that with $85 billion inject per month into the market economy, that things would be just getting worse and worse. Read more >>

'Run for the Hills' Now, I'm Doing It: Jim Rogers

The EU/IMF raiding bank accounts in Cyprus to bail out the country's financial system sets a dangerous precedent and investors should "run for the hills" said investor Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, on "Squawk on the Street" Thursday.

Rogers said that with Cyprus, politicians are saying that this is a special case and urging people not to worry, but that is exactly why investors should be concerned.

"What more do you need to know? Please, you better hurry, you better run for the hills. I'm doing it anyway," Rogers said. "I want to make sure that I don't get trapped. Think of all the poor souls that just thought they had a simple bank account. Now they find out that they are making a 'contribution' to the stability of Cyprus. The gall of these politicians."

"If you're going to listen to government, you're going to go bankrupt very quickly," he added. Read more >>

After Cyprus Bailout Deal, Europe's Problems Worse Than Ever

Cyprus may have been saved from disaster, but don't be fooled: Europe is still a hot mess.

In the middle of the night on the continent, officials managed to hastily stitch together a plan to rescue Cyprus and keep it from leaving the eurozone. The deal came just hours before a European Central Bank deadline that could have left Cyprus cut off from short-term capital, beginning the potential unraveling of the entire currency union. It also came just about one week after another hastily stitched-together bailout deal sparked outrage in Cyprus and around the region and created the need for desperate last-minute talks in the first place.

To paraphrase Winston Churchill, European policymakers always do the right thing, but only after exhausting every available alternative. As Quartz's Simone Foxman points out, this is no way to run a currency union, which together makes up the world's second-largest economy. And there are reasons to suspect this won't be the last bungled bailout.

The Cyprus debacle came about in part because the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund weren't on the same page about what to do with Cyprus from the start, the Financial Times reports -- an echo of their disagreements over helping Greece last year. This incident has left their relationship more fraught than ever, and it means we could very well get a repeat of the botched Cyprus bailout soon -- in Slovenia, or Italy, or who knows where else. Read more >>

Rush to ATMs in Cyprus

A planned tax on Cyprus bank depositors as part of a European Union bailout is sending people rushing to ATMs to withdraw cash.

The EU has required a one-time tax of 9.9% tax on deposits of more than €100,000 starting Tuesday, as part of a bailout of the tiny nation. On Saturday, the EU unveiled a €10 billion plan to rescue Cyprus' outsized banking sector and avoid a default.

It was the first time that the EU has insisted on such terms for bank depositors as part of a bailout. The EU's bailouts other nations in the last three years, such as Greece and Portugal, have usually been accompanied with strict budget restrictions and led to big losses for bond holders.

The Cyprus Parliament is expected to vote on the plan Monday. If it goes through, people with less than €100,000 in deposits will have to pay a tax of 6.75%.
As Cypriots heard the news of the tax, they started lining up outside of ATMs to withdraw money. Banks have placed withdrawal limits of €400 and many ATMs were running out of cash over the weekend. Read more >>

European Union has confiscated 10% of private Cyprus Bank Accounts

While this kind of 'wealth tax' has been predicted, as we noted yesterday, this stunning move in Cyprus is likely only the beginning of this process (which seems only stoppable by social unrest now). To get a sense of both what just happened and what its implications are, RBS has put toegther an excellent summary of everything you need to know about what the Europeans did, why they did it, what the short- and medium-term market reaction is likely to be, and the big picture of this "toxic policy error."

As RBS summarizes, "the deal to effectively haircut Cypriot deposits is an unprecedented move in the Euro crisis and highlights the limits of solidarity and the raw economics that somebody has to pay. It is also the most dangerous gambit that EMU leaders have made to date." And so we await Europe's open and what to expect as the rest of the PIIGSy Banks get plundered. Read more >>