Showing posts with label Money supply. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Money supply. Show all posts

Thursday, July 4, 2013

Gold’s undervaluation is extreme

Gold Buddha
The price of gold fell last week to the $1,200 level. The lemming sentiment in capital markets is uniformly bearish, yet every price-drop brings forth hungry buyers for physical gold from all over the world. Even hard-bitten gold bugs in the West are shaken and frightened to call a bottom, yet it is these conditions that accompany a selling climax. This article concludes there is a high possibility that gold will go sharply higher from here.

There are three loose ends to consider: valuation, economic and market fundamentals.

VALUATION

So far as I am aware nearly everyone is overlooking the obvious. You cannot consider the value of gold without taking account of the changes in the quantities of the currency and the above-ground stock of gold over time. The chart above shows the adjusted US dollar price of gold rebased to 100 in January 2005 when the gold price was $422. In 2005 dollars, using True Money Supply plus excess reserves as the currency adjustment, gold has risen only 13.9% to an equivalent price of $481.

TMS, or Austrian Money Supply, represents cash, checking accounts and savings deposits that can be redeemed for gold under a full convertibility regime. Excess reserves represent the funds deposited by banks at the Fed, which similarly can be redeemed for gold. The sum of TMS and excess reserves are therefore the comparable currency measure. Read more >>
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Friday, June 22, 2012

The Death of Banks and the Future of Money

Capitalism !
Banks are something between dinosaurs and vampires.

One thing is now clear to even the most casual observer: banks are not capitalist businesses. In their present incarnation they have little to do with the free market and no place in it. They are constantly oscillating between two positions:

One moment, they are a state protectorate, in desperate need of support from the state printing press or unlimited taxpayer funds, as, in the absence of such support, we are supposedly faced with the dreaded social fallout of complete financial collapse. The next moment they are a convenient tool for state policy, simply to be fed with ample bank reserves and enticed with low interest rates to create yet more cheap credit and help manufacture some artificial growth spurt.

Either the banks are the permanent welfare queens of the fiat money systems, or convenient policy levers for the macro-economic central planners. In any case, this is certainly not how a capitalist business should look.
Central banks and modern fiat money banks are quite simply a blot on the capitalist system. In order for capitalism to operate smoothly they will ultimately have to be removed. I believe that the underlying logic of capitalism will work in that direction. Trying to ‘reform’ the present system is a waste of time and energy. It is particularly unbecoming for libertarians as they run the risk of getting infected with the strains of statism that run through the system. Let’s replace this system with something better. With a market-based monetary system. Read more >>

20 Reasons Why America’s Next Bank Holiday Will Be a Nightmare

International Money Pile in Cash and Coins
James Wesley Rawles
Survival Blog via shtfplan

The world is on now on the brink of a global credit crisis that could be far worse than the tumultuous events of 2008. The ongoing sovereign debt crisis in the southern reaches of the Eurozone indicate that bank runs in the region will continue, and that more bank closure “holidays” will be declared. Under a bank holiday, virtually all deposits could be frozen and irredeemable for days, weeks, or even months.

The key question is: Will this crisis spread to the rest of Europe and then even to the United States? I urge SurvivalBlog readers–particularly those in Europe–to be proactive, to stay “ahead of the power curve.” While the Generally Dumb Public (GDP) wakes up some morning to hear news of a bank holiday, you will have long hence prepared yourself.

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Breaking Point, The End of the Cheap Energy Economy



Future Money Trends
Future Money Trends is expecting the U.S. to face the perfect storm of events that, when combined, will send gas prices past the breaking point for the average American.

 There are three major catalysts that will cause gas prices to reach this breaking point.

Number one, the dollar is in a state of collapse caused by a continuous increase of the money supply by America’s central bank.

Two, instability in the middle east and a potential war with Iran would great disrupt the supply of oil.

Three, the supply of cheap, recoverable oil is dwindling along with a major increase in demand.

America is built for $50 oil and $2 a gallon gasoline. The seriousness of our situation should not be overlooked. We have multiple forces that will drive gas prices past America’s $5 per gallon breaking point… Rising gas prices caused by these three catalysts will break the backs of the American consumer, spiking prices to the point where present day normalcy is no longer the reality.


Friday, March 25, 2011

One need travel no further for answers after reading this intelligent summary of Japan's Nuclear Crises


Before we discuss "the markets" or whatever you want to call them now, let's briefly look at the situation in Japan, which has "officially" deteriorated. The breaking news over night that a "breach" in a reactor "may have occurred" and that the situation is now "very grave and serious" should be no surprise to keen investors watching world news events. For even laymen know that when radiation is detected thousands of miles away in Iceland, when radiation in drinking water 150 miles away is detected, when high levels of radiation in sea water miles away are discovered, when radiation levels 25 miles away from the epicenter in the air are so high one could get sick in hours if not minutes, when radiation is detected in milk and food and made unsafe -- we know at least one of those 6 reactors is leaking. Which is why it is particularly interesting the officials are just now saying "evacuations are encouraged" between the 12-19 mile "safe to stay indoors" zone when the US and all other nations had set the minimum limit at 50 miles. I wonder if money has anything to do with that?

Now that it's been admitted officially that the rods are exposed and likely have been since the March 14th explosions, we can now accept that this is beyond the Chernobyl accident. Of course, this has been known since almost 10 days ago that
"Uncovered Nuclear Fuel Rods In Japan Could Ignite A Chernobyl-Like Disaster" as the title of this article dated the 16th of March states. Also 10 days ago, Japanese officials talked about a "lag time" of information as to the reason why the entire world was saying the disaster was much worse than they were admitting to. It seems the "lag time" they were talking about applied to them. Who's kidding who?

Of course, they can always raise the "healthy" limit of radiation exposure... oh, scratch that - they already did. This leads nicely into two other topics: 1) Is this event a foretaste of the way other gov'ts handle these types of situations, which have a very high probability of occurring and 2) if the markets even care anymore about any bad news, here, here, here, here, here and here just to start. Notice too, the timing of an "upward revised" GDP could not have come at a better time (I say show me the money!).

All that matters is the endless flow of money being pumped into the markets to keep them up. Do you have your rally hats on? A quick look at the markets shows green everywhere with a 100 point rally today. Remember the mantra - bad news is good news for the stock markets in this upside down world. At least the wealthy will be saved, as they dole out $20 million for their underground bunkers which have seen sales rise 1000% since January.

As reported here yesterday, Portugal needs $100 Billion in funding and fast. Not only did the entire gov't disintegrate, Portugal has run out of money; not to mention the ECB is looking at even more funding for Greece as well. Soon, Spain will follow. Then comes Ireland looking to get more or simply leave the EU entirely. If a major earthquake struck at the heart of Europe, perhaps the markets would have yet another reason to rally. Absurd, or is it? Take a look at the M1 money supply being pumped into the economy. 

Thus, we will continue to see more inflation around the world in the things we need and use everyday, and deflation in things we want to keep as an investment such as housing. But who wants to hear about fundamentals? All that matters is the Fed's unofficial mandate to pump up the markets at any "cost" until the DOW reaches 54,000. Therefore, I leave you with the most important topic that means anything right now and for many months ahead - Japan.

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Friday, May 21, 2010

130 Point Move In Dow In 15 Minutes On No Volume

NEW YORK - OCTOBER 14:  Traders work on the fl...Image by Getty Images via @daylife

Zerohedge comment of the day
by John McCloy

What do you do when those who are meant to protect you simply no longer care? Who is left to make money from? Only themselves. There are not many short squeezes left in their pocket. Do you think retail wants any part of this? What is the point of marking up prices when there is nobody to sell to but one another?

They shot themselves in the foot with the flash crash. It was a blatant maneuver as we all know to move influence political legislation. There is a reason we have supposedly autonomous branches. When Central bankers are using the markets to influence legislation we have a coup d'etat ladies in gentleman. This is nothing short of a financial coup perpetrated against the American public.

  • Pres. Obama announced Volcker Rule: Market shakedown and the newstream begins that Prop trading cannot be banned.
  • Llyod Blankfein goes on the stand: Market collapse into the close to assure he is not badgered.
  • Financial Regulation begins to make headway as Senators finally attempt to bring amendments to the floor and the day a Full Fed Audit is considered: The markets begin crashing and only reverse when Sanders is taken into a backroom. A deal is made to turn this into a false bill because they knew Senators could not vote against a Fed audit so they diluted it to solve the problem.
  • Greece & PIGS bondholders need cash as liquidity seizes, the Euro begins the walk to the river Styx and LIBOR skies: President Obama gets on the phone to Merkel to coerce a bailout (Look how well it worked for us), Bernanke begins making the rounds, and the IMF courageously volunteers 57 Billion in American taxpayer money for a bailout to buy FUCKING BONDS so that banks again take no haircut in restructuring.
  • Derivatives spin off/naked derivatives & Mccantwell/McCain (Glass-Steagall) are attempting to come to a vote: Markets are crashed, phone calls are made, Rahm & The President make phone calls to take the pressure off and a vote to cloture is rushed. The vote fails the first time..markets crash THE NEXT DAY they bring the vote to the floor again to prevent the amendments from being voted on and it passes. Banks sell off into the close to pretend they do not like the bill.

In the meantime Oil continues to hemorrhage in the Gulf, unemployment claims continue to rise, 99er's begin to fall off benefits, Credit cards & Foreclosures continue to climb, Mark to Market vanishes into the land of the Unicorns,Food stamps reach record levels (Modern day Soup Lines), Manufacturing jobs contract and are never to be seen again, Incumbents are being tossed, Savers see a continuous wealth transfer, small business ceases to exists, home prices continue to fall, QE ends, Fannie & Freddie is ignored and costing billions a month and our money supply has gone parabolic. How all this data equates to record bank bonuses, perfect trading quarters for all of the big banks, skying gold and a Dow at 10,000? This is 2010 America in name only. Close to 1500 people now have created a shared fascist government.

Monday, April 12, 2010

Sovereign Debt Default: No Time Like the Present

Bill Bonner
While the markets are hot, the economy is cool. Nearly 7,000 people go bankrupt every day – a record number. And in March, M3, the broadest measure of the money supply, recorded its biggest drop ever.

And get this. Peak to trough, December ’07 to February ’10, 8.3 million jobs were lost. As we reported yesterday, take away the statistical tricks and the number of people with real jobs actually fell last month – despite reports of an additional 163,000 new jobs in March.

Consumer credit fell again in February – down $11 billion. To put this number in perspective, the US government has run about $2.5 trillion in deficits since the correction began. So, in spite of pumping monthly deficits on the order of $120 billion…consumer credit still sank by $11 billion.

What can we say? It’s a Great Correction, after all.

Greece is going broke after all. Yields on Greek debt rose over 7% yesterday. So let’s look at how this works. Investors worry about a default. They push up yields (they need higher interest payments to justify the risk). This causes Greece to go further into debt (the cost of paying the extra interest), which causes even more worry among lenders.

Why doesn’t Greece just cut expenses?

Ah…glad you asked. This just goes to show what a dead-end debt can be. The government has already proposed substantial cuts. But it has to answer to the voters – who are on the verge of rioting in the street. And its own cabinet ministers are calling the Germans ‘racist’ because they refuse to give the Greeks money.

It’s hard for a popular democracy to cut spending. And then when it does, it discovers that it is in another trap. So much of the private sector depends on government spending that, take it away, and the whole economy shrinks. This causes tax revenues to fall by more than the budget cuts. In other words, a multiplier works in the other direction – causing the budget deficit to widen when cuts are made!

And guess what? Greece is not the only government that is falling into this hole. Latvia. Iceland. Maybe Ireland, England, California…and even the US…

Where, exactly, the point of no return lies, we don’t know. But it’s out there somewhere…

What’s the solution? Well, just to bite the bullet. Make the cuts. Default. Be happy.

Regards,

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning

Friday, March 19, 2010

Bernanke Wants To Eliminate Reserve Requirements

Official portrait of Federal Reserve Chairman ...Image via Wikipedia

theeconomiccollapseblog.com
Money Out Of Thin Air: Now Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Wants To Eliminate Reserve Requirements Completely?

Up until now, the United States has operated under a "fractional reserve" banking system. Banks have always been required to keep a small fraction of the money deposited with them for a reserve, but were allowed to loan out the rest. But now it turns out that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke wants to completely eliminate minimum reserve requirements, which he says "impose costs and distortions on the banking system". At least that is what a footnote to his testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services on February 10th says. So is Bernanke actually proposing that banks should be allowed to have no reserves at all?

That simply does not make any sense. But it is right there in black and white on the Federal Reserve's own website....

The Federal Reserve believes it is possible that, ultimately, its operating framework will allow the elimination of minimum reserve requirements, which impose costs and distortions on the banking system.

If there were no minimum reserve requirements, what kind of chaos would that lead to in our financial system? Not that we are operating with sound money now, but is the solution to have no restrictions at all? Of course not.

What in the world is Bernanke thinking?

But of course he is Time Magazine's "Person Of The Year", so shouldn't we all just shut up and trust his expertise?

Hardly.

The truth is that Bernanke is making a mess of the U.S. financial system.

Fortunately there are a few members of Congress that realize this. One of them is Republican Congressman Ron Paul from Texas. He has created a firestorm by introducing legislation that would subject the Federal Reserve to a comprehensive audit for the first time since it was created. Ron Paul understands that creating money out of thin air is only going to create massive problems. The following is an excerpt from Ron Paul's remarks to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at a recent Congressional hearing....

"The Federal Reserve in collaboration with the giant banks has created the greatest financial crisis the world has ever seen. The foolish notion that unlimited amounts of money and credit created out of thin air can provide sustainable economic growth has delivered this crisis to us. Instead of economic growth and stable prices, (The Fed) has given us a system of government and finance that now threatens the world financial and political institutions. Pursuing the same policy of excessive spending, debt expansion and monetary inflation can only compound the problems that prevent the required corrections. Doubling the money supply didn’t work, quadrupling it won’t work either. Buying up the bad debt of privileged institutions and dumping worthless assets on the American people is morally wrong and economically futile."

The truth is that the financial system that we have created makes inflation inevitable. The U.S. dollar has lost more than 95 percent of the value that it had when the Federal Reserve was created. During this decade the value of the dollar will decline a whole lot more.

That doesn't sound like a very good investment.

But that is what happens when you give bankers power to make money up out of thin air.

And things are only going to get worse.

Especially if Bernanke gets his way and reserve requirements are eliminated entirely.

The U.S. economy is a giant mess already, and we have got a guy at the controls who simply does not have a clue.

It's going to be a rough ride.


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Monday, January 4, 2010

China's 2010 Gold Rush

Adrian Ash, Editor, Bullion Vault

Owning gold is more often an end-in-itself than as an investment vehicle...the aim of accumulation, not the means...


THE COLLAPSE in India's gold demand during 2007-09 might seem good reason to question the fundamental strength of gold buying worldwide.

After all, if the world's No.1 gold buyers can't keep up with record-high gold prices, who can...?

But the plain fact, as BullionVault first forecast in spring 2009, is that China has overtaken India as the number one private gold buyer this year. The typical Chinese New Year gold rush has already begun (thanks in part to 3% discounts at major retailers), and robust demand looks likely to continue through 2010 if not beyond.

Full-year 2009 private demand in mainland China could outstrip India, the former No.1 buyer, by one quarter if not one third. Short of a (very unlikely) collapse in Q4 demand, full-year private gold buying – including jewelry and retail investment – is set to have grown 10% from 2008's record in volume terms, rising 26% by value to equal $13.5 billion or more.

On recent trends, that would equate to more than 2.0% of China's famously massive household savings (up from 1.0% ten years ago) and account for almost one ounce in every eight sold worldwide.


1

Basis the GFMS consultancy's data (published by the World Gold Council), physical gold purchases by mainland Chinese households in 2009 was already running 19% ahead of India's private demand for Q1-Q3.

Given China's continued economic growth (certain to hit Beijing's 8% target according to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences) – let alone the surge in money-supply and credit growth over and above GDP (put at 23 and 27 percentage points respectively by Deutsche Bank) – private gold consumption in Q4 most likely remained very robust. Whereas India's private gold off-take during Oct-Dec. continued to shrink in the face of record-high prices. Indian bank and wholesale dealers have reported below-market bids from their clients throughout the autumn. Comments from the Bombay Bullion Association put Q4 imports 54% lower from 2008's already disastrous finish.

Fourth-quarter Chinese consumption should be in the range of 116 tonnes (if it adds 37% to Q1-Q3 volume, as per the 5-year average) to 128 tonnes or more (if Q4 tops Q3 by volume, as it has each year since 2004). Running total to end-Sept. was 315 tonnes. Likely to finish full-year at 431-443 tonnes.

India's private demand, in contrast, ran 45% below 2008 levels during the first 9 months of the year, most notably depressed during Q1 (down 83% from Q1 08, with Indian investors becoming physical dis-hoarders on GFMS's data; overall, India was a net exporter of gold for the first time since the Depression according to market historian Timothy Green). Applying the 5-year average ratio of Q4 demand to Q1-Q3 figures (27% added to 264 tonnes), full-year private off-take would come in at 336 tonnes, the lowest total since at least 1991 on GFMS's data.

India's full-year imports (it has virtually no domestic mining output) are forecast at 370-380 tonnes says the Bombay Bullion Association. They have not been below 400 tonnes per year since at least 1997 according to the Indian Bullion Market Association.

It is impossible to predict the outlook for gold-buying in mainland China next year, but this decade's drivers for Western gold investment – credit excess and miserable returns to cash – also apply in China, with bells on.

The People's Bank cut its benchmark rate from 7.5% to 5.3% in Dec. 2008, and has left it there since. Inflation in the cost of living was officially reported at minus 1.1% across the first 3 quarters, but real rates were negative in H2 2004 and again in at the turn of 2007-8. Some analysts are forecasting 4.0% inflation for 2010, and either way, commercial rates have been so attractive this year that new credit growth was CNY295 billion in Nov., equal to $43 billion. That was down from 2009's monthly average of $130bn, but took full-year credit growth to the equivalent of $1.35 trillion, equal to 27% of GDP.

Pitched against this rampant credit excess, gold's quasi-religious and auspicious appeal in Chinese culture – as a solid, tangible, intrinsically valuable store of wealth – will only have grown. Most significantly, and in sharp contrast to Indian demand, private Chinese buying has grown as the price has risen (gold has than tripled against the Yuan since retail price controls were lifted in 2001).

That might suggest gold is just another bull-market asset for China's increasingly wealthy and capital-rich middle classes. But owning the metal is most often viewed more as an end-in-itself than as an investment vehicle; it's the aim of accumulation, not the means.

Given this last decade's average 15% annual gains for US-Dollar investors – plus the outlook for sub-zero real interest rates, struggling equity dividends, and the danger of sharply higher bond yields (i.e. falling bond prices) as the Treasury attempts to finance a new record deficit – might the Chinese approach to gold investment start to take hold in the West...?

Monday, September 28, 2009

Marc Faber - "Total Collapse Will Come" - Economic Armageddon - Dollar Crash



Marc Faber predicts with certainty that the United States will go through high inflation and a lower standard of living. Expect wars and currency re-evaluation.

Saturday, September 26, 2009

The CIA and "Masters of Gold"

This from ZeroHedge:

The CIA Chimes In On Gold Control; Highlights Historical Gold-To-Foreign Holdings Shortfunding

After yesterday we highlighted a declassified document by the Department of State, in which it was made clear just how critical it is for the US to remain "Masters of Gold", today we present a comparable memorandum from the same time period (December 1968) this time by the CIA, which presents comparable key high-level gold-related deliberations by the then-administration.

Some of the key points:

We lose influence in world affairs whenever:

  • The dollar is weak in exchange markets
  • There is a major outflow of gold; and/or
  • We are obliged to pressure countries into holding dollars or giving us payments assistance

Our position can also be improved by action on the international monetary system itself to:

  • Decrease vulnerability to confidence crises
  • Increase world monetary reserves (liquidity); and
  • Improve tools for adjusting payments surpluses and deficits

With $33 billion of foreign dollar holdings ($16 billion in official hands) and only $10.7 billion of gold in the U.S. reserve, the risk is clear. To contain these pressures our strategy is:

  • To isolate official from private gold markets by obtaining a pledge from central banks that they will neither buy nor sell gold except to each other;
  • To bring South Africa to sell its current production of gold in the private market, and thus keep the private price down.

And here are the seeds for the need for a fiat currency: growing an economy when monetary supply (and, by implication, currency devaluation) is limited, can only pad the growth rate for the core economic entities so much.

Increasing liquidity

Trade won't be able to grow, and the system will remain vulnerable to speculation unless there is regular growth in the international money supply.

Gold can't provide the needed increase: industrial and speculative demand is too high. U.S. payment deficits can't either: foreigners are unwilling to hold more dollars when we run large deficits and unable to increase net reserves by accumulating dollars when our deficits are small.

Our strategy is to supplement gold and dollars with a new international asset, Special Drawing Rights (SDR).

And, of course, if the SDR does not work, the fall back reserve currency can always just be printed in limitless amounts, thus allowing massive liquidity-based expansion in the trade system, which will further allow the U.S. to grow its trade deficit to record amounts. Just fast forward 41 years.

Indeed, this document was presented before the gold standard was officially abolished. However, in the very near future Zero Hedge will disclose documents that highlight how even in the post-1971 world, gold was still perceived with the same liquidity management and "strategic control" interest as ever before.

CIA 1968 Financial Crisis

Thursday, July 16, 2009

Destroy The Federal Reserve - BARTER

The U.S. currently boasts some 500 barter exchanges, up from about 40 in 1980, and that's the official count; many businesses barter informally to avoid the IRS.

The depth and length of Depression 2.0 will be the most severe depression in history. When the unemployment benefits run out for great swaths across America, who will they turn to when bankrupt states slash welfare and food stamp programs? As our global economy comes to a full stop, trade will begin to flourish in local communities out of necessity.

But there's another even more important reason to barter -- to destroy the Federal Reserve. Congress will never reform the banking system. Congress, bankers, Wall Street, The Federal Reserve, are all fleecing the system of taxpayer wealth. Government officials, economists, and financial pundits would like all of us to believe the nature of our current financial crises results from a complex series of events, but it's really very simple: the elite (Wall Street bankers and their whore political system) have robbed taxpayers blind in the largest transfer of wealth in history.

Read what the author of The End of Money and the Future of Civilization, Thomas H. Greco, has to say about banking, bartering, and the Federal Reserve:

Historically, every financial and economic crisis has been used to further centralize power and concentrate wealth. This one is no different, and in fact the moves being promoted by the Obama administration and the central banks of the Western powers will take the whole world to the pinnacle of financial despotism -- unless enough people wake up and claim their own "money power.”

In recent months, the Fed has expanded its "assets" from about $800 billion to more than $2,000 billion. Those so-called assets are securities it bought from financial institutions and loans made to central banks in other countries. But the Fed refuses to name the specific recipients of those funds, while admitting that by doing so they are manipulating the value of the US dollar on foreign exchange markets. (Congressman Alan Grayson Grills Fed Vice Chair Donald Kohn.)

Where does the Fed get the money to buy those "assets" or to make those loans? Quite simply, it creates the money. Unlike you or me or any other economic entity, the Fed has the power to create Federal Reserve dollars by effectively writing a check against no funds. This is the function known as "Open Market Operations."

What is the economy experiencing now, and what is in prospect for the future? Despite unprecedented inflation of the money supply, we are now (mid-July, 2009) in a period of depression. How can we have simultaneous inflation of the currency and still have economic depression?

It is a matter of where the money is going. While the public sector (federal government) is being lavishly funded to maintain a global empire, and the banks are being bailed out to try to keep a dysfunctional and destructive financial system from collapsing, the private productive sector is being starved for credit. As a result, businesses are bankrupting, people are losing their jobs and their incomes, and lower levels of government are being squeezed because their tax revenues are shrinking.

There is also the matter of the real estate bubble that was created by the financial institutions as they loaded up the private sector with a debt burden that was way beyond its ability to bear. Now that burden is being shifted to the public sector as the government assumes those "toxic" loans. Unfortunately, it is not the poor suckers who were lured into the debt trap that are being relieved, but the predatory lenders who laid the traps. So mortgages are being foreclosed at an unprecedented scale, people are losing their equity as housing values plunge, and more Americans are being made homeless.

These are the factors that have so far kept the effects of monetary inflation from becoming extreme. Ultimately, however, such abusive issuance of political money shows up as rising prices.

When will the price effects of hyper-inflation begin to kick in? How will the government respond to it? What will be the social and political fallout? What can ordinary people do to protect themselves from monetary and legislative abuses? These are the questions that beg for answers.

Already there are rumblings and signs that the U.S. dollar is about to lose its status as the global reserve currency. When that happens, imports of energy and other necessities will become more expensive. The U.S.’s massive trade deficits will not be sustained into the future. China, the OPEC countries, and others that have been buying massive amounts of U.S. government bonds with their dollar earnings, are indicating that their appetite has been sated. Bilateral and multilateral trade agreements are being made that bypass the use of the dollar for international trade.

One thing is clear -- we cannot rely upon the government to act in the best interests of the people. Already, President Obama has moved to give the Federal Reserve even more power to control the people's credit and financial resources. According to a June 18 article in the Wall Street Journal, "The central bank would win power to monitor risks across the financial system, and sweeping authority to examine any firm that could threaten financial stability, even if the Fed wouldn't normally supervise the institution." This is not a new plan; it was floated as a trial balloon during the Bush administration. As early as March 2008, then Treasury Secretary Paulson was proposing to "give the Federal Reserve broad new authority to oversee financial market stability, in effect allowing it to send SWAT teams into any corner of the industry or any institution that might pose a risk to the overall system."

Ostensibly that would be done to prevent the errant financial institutions from repeating their sins of the recent past, but more likely it will have the effect of suppressing any private initiative that might compete with the financial cartel. The Fed is, after all, a private company run by the bankers for the bankers. A recent Reuters article is critical of Obama's move because of the Fed's lack of accountability. It is a plan that seeks to preserve at all costs the credit monopoly that exists under the central banking regime and to perpetuate the looting of the economy by monetization of federal government debts and other ultimately worthless "assets."

During the Great Depression, President Franking Roosevelt, upon taking office in 1933, declared a "bank holiday." He ordered all banks to close. Many of those banks never reopened and many people lost their savings. He also demanded that all Americans turn in their gold holdings in return for paper currency, which was one of the biggest robberies in history up to that time. Some pundits are predicting that another such bank holiday is being planned to put the brakes on price increases, once they begin in earnest, by depriving people of access to their savings, as was done in Argentina in 2002.

Governments that mismanage money invariably use the force of law to prevent the sheep from escaping from the shearing pen (or the slaughter house). So long as people are completely dependent upon political money and banks, they will docilely (or grudgingly) accept whatever "solutions” the political leadership puts forth, and do whatever the government demands of them.

Fortunately there is a way out. The primary purpose of money is to facilitate the exchange of goods and services in the markets. But it is possible to mediate the exchange process without using political money as the payment medium, and without borrowing from banks.

There is plenty of precedent for this sort of cashless trading. It involves a process of direct credit clearing among associated buyers and sellers. During the Great Depression the entrepreneurial middle class in Switzerland organized themselves into the WIR Economic Circle Cooperative. After 75 years, the WIR clearing circle continues to thrive with more than 60,000 member businesses trading the equivalent of about US$1.3 billion per year.

The past four decades have seen the emergence of a new industry comprised of commercial trade exchanges, sometimes called "barter" exchanges, that act as "third part record keepers" enabling the same sort of direct credit clearing for thousands of businesses in cities around the world. Efforts at the grassroots by social entrepreneurs to localize exchange and finance have been similarly widespread in many communities over the past twenty-five years.

Measures to properly reform the money and banking system by political means have about as much chance as the proverbial snowball in hell. However, what is possible, and what seems to be gaining traction to transcend the dominant system, is the materialization of voluntary, private initiatives that enable the cashless exchange of goods and services. As these systems continue to improve, proliferate, and scale up, they will provide a pathway toward a sustainable economy, greater local control, and a better quality of life for all.

Thomas H. Greco, Jr. is the director of the Community Information Resource Center, which he founded in 1992. CIRC is a nonprofit consulting organization and networking hub dedicated to economic equity, social justice, and community improvement, specializing in community currency and mutual credit design, development, and implementation. His newest book is The End of Money and the Future of Civilization.
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