G20 Summit - Casino Capitalism as Usual

Image by International Monetary Fund via Flickr

With only piecemeal reforms to the financial system made at the G20 summit in Pittsburgh, the key tenets of market fundamentalist economic policies still prevail. Not until the global economic system is democratised will the world’s poor be given priority over the wealthy few, argues Mark Engler.

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1st October 2009 - Published by Foreign Policy in Focus

Last week's Group of 20 (G20) meeting in Pittsburgh brought together leaders from the most significant players in the global economy and charged them with renovating the financial system at the heart of the economic crisis. Change was on the agenda, and the heads of state claimed to deliver. As the summit concluded, The New York Times hailed the meeting's final statement as a momentous shift, reporting that "Leaders of G20 Vow to Reshape Global Economy."

Unfortunately, the changes left off the table at the summit were far more significant than the modest reforms actually debated, and the few alterations that did make it into the final agreement are likely to be further watered down in implementation. Even the most common-sense reforms are being met with determined corporate opposition. Indeed, given the depths of the collapse one year ago and the volume of public outcry for change, the real surprise is how little transformation has yet taken place.

Late and Little

Many of the items on the Pittsburgh agenda were not bad in themselves. They were merely limited in scope and under siege by lobbyists. The G20 moved in the right direction by announcing that it would require banks and other financial institutions to have greater capital reserves. Mandating that a bank keep more in reserve for every dollar it lends out makes it less likely that the institution will be caught short and need a bailout. While such a change may sound arcane, it could mark a significant break from the past if done right and made part of broader regulations. After all, leveraging assets in order to obtain greater profits — whereby overextended firms made high-risk wagers with ever-greater amounts other people's money — went far in provoking the crisis.

While higher capital ratios and greater oversight would limit this kind of wanton speculation, the G20 statement is short on specifics about the actual requirements that financial institutions would be made to respect. And, sadly, the determined opposition of European bankers will likely keep changes to minimal levels. The difficulty with implementing even this most minor and reasonable of reforms shows how entrenched corporate power remains in post-crisis policymaking.

This bodes ill for the prospects of other heralded changes. On Wall Street's behalf, the Obama administration worked to curtail a French and German push for caps on executive pay — specifically controls on the outrageous bonuses given to top bankers whose institutions have lost billions. As a result, the G20 agreement forgoes any hard limits on compensation. It instead promotes guidelines that would somewhat delay when bankers receive their multi-million dollar payouts. Ostensibly designed to focus executives on long-term performance, this substitute measure is a far weaker alternative.

Why is the Obama administration going to bat for Wall Street firms at international meetings? It's hard to say, especially since this has not produced any apparent goodwill at home. Despite the White House's efforts on their behalf, the financial industry is fervently opposing the president's proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency, which would protect Americans from predatory lending by credit card and mortgage companies. A representative of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's Center for Capital Markets recently explained to McClatchy that the Chamber is "spending about $2 million on ads, educational efforts, and a grassroots campaign to kill the agency."

Such backlash against reform suggests that the global economy is still being run like a gambling hall. The betting limits at some tables may be modestly reduced and payouts to the highest of high-rollers slightly reined in, but we have not strayed far from Harrah's or the MGM Grand.

The Muscle Behind Market Fundamentalism

The G20 is only one component of the global economy's management. As it turns out, the activities of other bodies compromise the G20's declarations of reform. While agreements at the G20 are notoriously lacking in enforcement, financial institutions that can discipline and punish — such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Trade Organization (WTO) — appear notably unreformed and unrepentant.

After a previous meeting of the G20 in London last April, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced, "the old Washington consensus is over." However, key tenets of market fundamentalist economic policy that defined this consensus — including fiscal austerity and pro-corporate deregulation — still prevail.

At the April G20 meeting, world leaders vowed to provide as much as $1.1 trillion in new resources to the developing world to blunt the impact of economic downturn. However, much of this funding has yet to materialize, and only a fraction of it is slated to go to low-income countries (rather than middle-income states). Moreover, the bulk of these resources are to be channeled through the IMF, which has typically demanded that recipients of its loans accept harsh neoliberal polices as a condition of receiving money. While Fund officials claim to have changed with the times by relaxing "conditionality" and easing their previously stern attitudes toward countries that dare to buck the neoliberal Washington Consensus, many of their recent loans suggest that, in practice, their conversion has been quite limited.

A recent report from the Center for Economic Policy Research indicates that the IMF "has tied pro-cyclical, contractionary economic conditions on Eastern European countries to sorely needed loans." While struggling economies are desperately in need of government social spending and monetary stimulus, IMF agreements with Latvia, Hungary, and Ukraine demand slashed budgets and policy restrictions that look a lot like the "structural adjustment" of old. In advance of the April G20 summit, Gordon Brown had admitted, "Too often our responses to past crises have been inadequate or misdirected, promoting economic orthodoxies that we ourselves have not followed and that have condemned the world's poorest to a deepening crisis of poverty." Sadly, the IMF has yet to demonstrate that it is truly breaking from this established pattern.

The WTO is not helping things either, especially when it comes to reviving financial regulation that can protect the public good. As Lori Wallach, director of Public Citizen's Global Trade Watch Division, observed last week, "the G20 leaders have announced a very perplexing plan of action that calls for reregulation of the financial sector to try to avoid the next economic crisis while simultaneously calling for completion of the WTO Doha Round, which would require additional financial deregulation, including new WTO limits on accounting standards through a text the disgraced Arthur Andersen firm had a hand in formulating." New "free trade" rules may prohibit countries from shielding themselves from exotic derivates such as credit default swaps or from capping the size of mega-banks that threaten to take down the entire system when they fail.

Left Off The Table

That the G20 is not undertaking a more serious transformation of global financial structures might reflect the power of continued corporate lobbying. It does not, however, reflect a lack of good ideas. A broad array of financial experts and civil society organizations — ranging from the Stiglitz Commission tasked with making recommendations to the UN, to grassroots coalitions such as Put People First, the Citizens' Trade Campaign, and the labor network Global Unions — have advocated for sensible and needed reforms that could be easily enacted if the political will existed.

One example is the "Tobin Tax" — a small tax on international financial transfers first advocated in the 1970s by Nobel economist James Tobin as a way of cooling speculation on foreign currencies. ATTAC (the Association for the Taxation of financial Transactions for the Aid of Citizens), a leading organization for globalization activism in many parts of Europe, takes its name from this proposal and has pushed for it for over a decade. A version of the tax recently gained an even higher profile in Europe owing to the support of Adair Turner, the head of the British Financial Services Authority, which regulates UK banking. Oxfam argues that, beyond discouraging short-term gambling on currencies, a tax as small as 0.005% could raise between $33 billion and $50 billion per year. This pool of money could support sustainable development in places where the majority of people are still living on less than $2 per day.

Reform proposals also include debt cancellation for countries in the global South. Many poorer nations must spend substantial portions of their budgets on interest payments to the North rather than serve populations hit hard by the crisis. Often, their debts were unjust to begin with, accumulated by dictators who have since been thrown out of power. In most cases the countries' citizens have already sent back payments that dwarf the original loans. Rather than having to submit to the IMF to receive new loans, poorer countries should be allowed to keep their own resources as part of a just stimulus program.

Reflecting the widespread agreement that no corporation should be "too big to fail," citizen advocates have pushed for a much more aggressive application of antitrust and anti-monopoly laws. In this vein, the Stiglitz Commission recommended the creation of a "Global Competition Authority" to provide "adequate oversight of these large institutions" and to "limit their size and the extent of their interactions." These suggestions have a strong grounding in the public interest but are of course anathema to corporate chiefs. Accordingly, they have thus far remained off the table at the G20.

A Democratic Economy

A final demand is that real steps be taken to make the global economic system more democratic. Although leaders at the Pittsburgh summit lauded themselves for moving key discussions from the G8 to the larger G20 — which includes regional powers such as China, India, and Brazil — the international financial institutions with real muscle remain woefully undemocratic. The IMF is a perfect example. The United States, with a 17% voting share, retains the ability to veto all key decisions, because these require an 85% majority. In recent years the IMF has made high-profile announcements of changes to its voting structure. These changes, however, amount to token shifts of a few percentage points from still-dominant wealthy nations to countries such as China.

Ultimately, the goal of economic reforms must not merely be to revive a system that, until its bubbles burst, produced extraordinary wealth for a fortunate few. Rather, it must be to create living wage jobs and slash inequality. Yet that end is unlikely to be achieved if control of economic decision-making remains forever in the hands of the privileged. While the G20 has invited some new members into the club, decisions about the global economy are still made in elite and exclusive venues, where bailed-out executives still matter far more than the world's poor. In changing this, democracy will have to be a means as well as an end. For as long as the bankers rule, we will have little chance of breaking from a dispiriting state of affairs: casino capitalism as usual.

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Mark Engler, a writer based in New York City, is a senior analyst with Foreign Policy In Focus.

The Lies Exposed, All the Global Elite Have Left Is Pure Force

Chris Hedges

"The leaders of the G-20 are meeting to try and salvage their power and money after everything that has gone wrong," said Benedicto Martinez Orozco, co-president of the Mexican Frente Autentico del Trabajo (FAT), who is in Pittsburgh for the protests. "This is what this meeting is about."

The draconian security measures put in place to silence dissent in Pittsburgh are disproportionate to any actual security concern. They are a response not to a real threat, but to the fear gripping the established centers of power. The power elite grasps, even if we do not, the massive fraud and theft being undertaken to save a criminal class on Wall Street and international speculators of the kinds who were executed in other periods of human history. They know the awful cost this plundering of state treasuries will impose on workers, who will become a permanent underclass. And they also know that once this is clear to the rest of us, rebellion will no longer be a foreign concept.

The delegates to the G-20, the gathering of the world's wealthiest nations, will consequently be protected by a National Guard combat battalion, recently returned from Iraq. The battalion will shut down the area around the city center, man checkpoints and patrol the streets in combat gear. Pittsburgh has augmented the city's police force of 1,000 with an additional 3,000 officers. Helicopters have begun to buzz gatherings in city parks, buses driven to Pittsburgh to provide food to protesters have been impounded, activists have been detained, and permits to camp in the city parks have been denied. Web sites belonging to resistance groups have been hacked and trashed, and many groups suspect that they have been infiltrated and that their phones and e-mail accounts are being monitored.

Our global economy, like our political system, has been hijacked by a tiny oligarchy, composed mostly of wealthy white men who serve corporations. They have pledged or raised a staggering $18 trillion, looted largely from state treasuries, to prop up banks and other financial institutions that engaged in suicidal acts of speculation and ruined the world economy. They have formulated trade deals so corporations can speculate across borders with currency, food and natural resources even as, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, 1.02 billion people on the planet struggle with hunger. Globalization has obliterated the ability of many poor countries to protect food staples such as corn, rice, beans and wheat with subsidies or taxes on imported staples. The abolishment of these protections has permitted the giant mechanized farms to wipe out tens of millions of small farmers-2 million in Mexico alone-bankrupting many and driving them off their land. Those who could once feed themselves can no longer find enough food, and the wealthiest governments use institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the World Trade Organization like pit bulls to establish economic supremacy. There is little that most governments seem able to do to fight back.

But the game is up. The utopian dreams of globalization have been exposed as a sham. Force is all the elite have left. We are living through one of civilization's great seismic reversals. The ideology of globalization, like all utopias that are sold as inevitable and irreversible, has become a farce. The power elite, perplexed and confused, cling to the disastrous principles of globalization and its outdated language to mask the political and economic vacuum before us. The absurd idea that the marketplace alone should determine economic and political constructs caused the crisis. It led the G-20 to sacrifice other areas of human importance-from working conditions, to taxation, to child labor, to hunger, to health and pollution-on the altar of free trade. It left the world's poor worse off and the United States with the largest deficits in human history. Globalization has become an excuse to ignore the mess. It has left a mediocre elite desperately trying to save a system that cannot be saved and, more important, trying to save itself. "Speculation," then-President Jacques Chirac of France once warned, "is the AIDS of our economies." We have reached the terminal stage.

"Each of Globalization's strengths has somehow turned out to have an opposing meaning," John Ralston Saul wrote in "The Collapse of Globalism." "The lowering of national residency requirements for corporations has morphed into a tool for massive tax evasion. The idea of a global economic system mysteriously made local poverty seem unreal, even normal. The decline of the middle class-the very basis of democracy-seemed to be just one of those things that happen, unfortunate but inevitable. That the working class and the lower middle class, even parts of the middle class, could only survive with more than one job per person seemed to be expected punishment for not keeping up. The contrast between unprecedented bonuses for mere managers at the top and the four-job families below them seemed inevitable in a globalized world. For two decades an elite consensus insisted that unsustainable third-world debts could not be put aside in a sort of bad debt reserve without betraying Globalism's essential principles and moral obligations, which included an unwavering respect for the sanctity of international contracts. It took the same people about two weeks to abandon sanctity and propose bad debt banks for their own far larger debts in 2009."

The institutions that once provided alternative sources of power, including the press, government, agencies of religion, universities and labor unions, have proved morally bankrupt. They no longer provide a space for voices of moral autonomy. No one will save us now but ourselves.

Does anyone really believe this can continue indefinitely?

Image by Mike Licht, NotionsCapital.com via Flickr

I wonder almost daily how long this dog and pony show can go on.

by Bob Chapman

The Fed’s Wall Street bubble, as we forecast in January, will need at least $2 trillion more in 2010, if the economy is to just stay on an even keel. The massive debt liquidation particularly in banking, Wall Street and in insurance demands many more trillions of dollars. $23.4 trillion is not going to be enough. Presently the Fed is in the process of monetizing $2 trillion in Treasuries, Agency paper, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and collateralized debt obligations held by lenders. It is a secret what the Fed is paying for this almost worthless paper. Is it any wonder the public has lost trust and confidence in these players and our government?

In order to escape from this global expansion of debt from government, corporations, banking, Wall Street and even state indebtedness, the bubble has to be maintained. The longer it lasts the worse will be the collapse when it bursts. Does anyone really believe that this can continue indefinitely?

People talk about robust inflationary environments in China, Asia and emerging markets In America the Fed’s game of lowering interest rates and increasing money and credit and monetizing paper will end over the next two years, maybe three. What is already in the system guarantees inflation.

Many believe American re-flation boosts real estate values. Not a chance. The recovery is not going anywhere. Americans are starting to save and pay down debt, and that means eventually consumption, as a percentage of GDP will fall to the long-term mean of 64.5%.

The stock market and major market players are again highly leveraged even after 50% gains. They do not seem to understand that the sustained injection of trillions of dollars in money and credit is not going to work. It is not creating anything. Wild speculation is fine; it’s the leverage that kills. As a broker I never had a margin account. The market is not discounting a rosy future, but the players do not understand that. Prices are simply disconnected from reality. Short covering and the reversal of derivative positions cannot go on indefinitely. Market performance is led by second and third tier companies that are in serious positions, some on the edge of bankruptcy. This is a very frustrating but temporary phenomenon. You are short failing companies, and good companies languish. This is one of the unpredictable parts of the market. All we can say is that current stock market action is a reflection of the current dysfunctional financial chaos that we are trapped in. Mis-pricing is legion. All we can say is it is not going to work. Your only alternative is to back in the safety of gold and silver related assets.

The same elements that were responsible for the collapse of the market in 2000 are at work today. Incidentally we recommended selling in the second week of April, two weeks after the top. Only 2% of analysts accompanied us. Then again, we called the top at 14,100. That element was interest rate carry trades. The players are taking advantage of the ability to borrow cheap dollars, yen and euros to buy other higher yielding currencies, which in turn strengthens their currencies, making their exports uncompetitive. South Africa and Turkey are such examples. Thus, currency appreciation caused by differing interest rates is reigniting third world countries. Free trade and globalization are having some unintended consequences. The dollar is headed down and at the G-20 meeting in London on September 4-5; the US will ask China and others to cut it more slack, because they cannot now reverse the reversal of fortune.

When we called the top on the dollar at 89.5 on the USDX a few months ago we never expected its decent to be as sharp as it has been. As we write it is 79, up from 77.60 in a normal bear market rally assisted by a temporary manipulation by the US government that will be of no lasting consequences. You might call this a normalization process, as a result of the unwinding of dollar gains in the de-leveraging process. The speculators got out and the banks are still upside down. The unwinding process is only half complete and that means the dollar will test 71.18 on the USDX by yearend and probably by the end of October. The banks have to reduce leverage and that makes it a lock. They are still leveraged 40 to 50 times deposits. You talk about stupid. Even Mr. Bernanke tells us tightening by raising interest rates is a long way off. In addition, world central banks are dollar sellers, even if only in a minor way. As long as the US Congress refuses to enact tariffs on goods and services the dollar will remain chronically and perpetually weak. As an aside, the further the dollar weakens the more expensive it will be for the US to purchase foreign goods, which will lead to higher inflation. That will force further dollar selling. Thus, you can more clearly see how this combination of events, accompanied by others, will continue to suppress the dollars value.

The result has been that second and third world currencies are strengthening against G-20 currencies, a result of unintended consequences in the elitists grab for profits and power. What they have done via free trade and globalization, offshoring and outsourcing is to allow China, Brazil, India and Russia to take their places at the head of the table. The developed economies have dug their own graves as they experience staggering unemployment and dollar depreciation simultaneously. It may not be evident now but it is every man for himself sooner than you think. Already officially manipulating their currencies are Sweden, New Zealand, Australia and the Swiss. This does not create a fair playing field and it pulls the underpinnings out from under the WTO, the World Trade Organization, which is the major element in the destruction of the industrial power of Japan, Canada, the US and Europe. All it really was created for was a redistribution of wealth from the first to the second and third worlds in the early 1960s. We wrote about this in the American Mercury in 1967, but, of course, no one was listening. A massive socialization process, a leveling if you may, so that the inhabitants of the world, and particularly the citizens of the more powerful nations, would accept world government. This did not just happen. It was done deliberately by design. As a result of this plan currently these second and third tier nations are growing 50% faster than the G-20, or more specifically Canada, the US and Europe.

We are going to see strong resistance to currency appreciation in the future and increases in subsidies in many nations – first, second and third tier currencies. Perhaps even currency wars. The damage done via free trade and globalization is vastly underestimated when related to the first world, which brings us back to the dollar and other carry trades that are a result of this. It is not only the dollar that will be destroyed, but also all major currencies. That accomplished, the elitists will then attempt to implant world government. That is what this is all about and few have the foresight to listen. Most do not even recognize the enemy at the Council on Foreign relations or at the Bilderberger meetings, because he or she wears a $3,000 suit and they look like nice people. When are people going to wake up and stop allowing themselves to be propagandized? Is the fog so thick that they cannot see what is being done to them? Do they not understand why they are unemployed; have to take mandatory swine flu shots; why socialized medicine will destroy our medical system; why Cap and Trade is a scam by Goldman Sachs to increase their taxes 20% or that our privately owned Federal Reserve is totally corrupt? This is part of a major plan to destroy the major nations, as we now know them. The carry trade, derivatives and massive injections of money created out of thin air are but nails in our coffins and if we do not stop these evil people it will mean destruction.

Last March net wealth declined from a peak of $22 trillion to $12 trillion and due to a bear market rally it has moved back to about $15 trillion. During the past two years consumer debt is about the same, but the market has gotten hit hard. Household equity is off about 90%, and had it not been for the personal stimulus package it would have fallen much more.

What is surprising to most but not to us was that the money in money market funds increased as the market fell. That means that leverage via borrowed money was what has driven the market rally, along with short covering and government manipulation. The Fed was the biggest factor in rigging this bear rally. We have probably seen all the public investor buying we are going to see. The US and European banks were probably given the funds by the Fed with strict instructions to push the equity market higher and use as much leverage as possible. This rally has not enticed the public to spend more and in fact, retail sales are off 6% and still falling, thus, no recovery except in the minds of Wall Street and Washington.

Further to the unemployment figures, the birth/death ratio should have been 113,000 job losses higher or about 350,000. This year the B/D model has added 879,000 jobs and that figure should be 992,000, during the worst employment environment since the ‘Great Depression”, which is simply beyond belief. Then to have short-term unemployment fall from 9.5% to 9.4% is incredulous. You ask how did they do that? It was due to the fact 637,000 people were dropped from the labor force, not from an increase in employment, but they did end up on the U6, which officially is 16.8% unemployment, but if you extract the B/D ratio you end up with unemployment of 20.8%. What we have witnessed is more lies and propaganda, as the administration tries to use smoke and mirrors to regain public confidence to get them to increase spending. Barry and advisors, it isn’t going to work. They are not that dumb.

Home prices continue to fall nationwide. Portland, OR is a good example. It reported a record decline in home values for the 17th straight month in May and month-on-month saw a 16.3% fall, the biggest decline in the index’s 22-year history. Since the July 2007 peak prices have fallen 21% and that is the lowest level since May 2005.

We see the summer pause as natural and as unemployment rises, now by U6 at 20.8%, they’ll be more foreclosures and lower prices. The depression is only pausing to catch its breath.