These days I can't seem to look at numbers anymore without asking myself what's behind them. Hey, who can? 90% of them are embellished crappahola, and we're still stuck trying to figure out what they mean if we want to know what lies ahead. Wouldn't a be nice to have a government that's transparent, and doesn't try to pull a fast one on you every chance it gets? Yeah, dream on; here goes another round of number rumbling:
The headline may claim that "initial unemployment claims dip", but in reality they have hardly moved at all through summer. As for continuing claims numbers, they are not only up, they're increasingly devoid of meaning, as increasing numbers of people fall off the far end, beyond the duration of unemployment benefits. The worst hit states, where unemployment is highest, and hence tax revenues drop most, will have to pony up the most in additional benefits, as an estimated 1.5 million people will have exhausted all resources by Christmas. For some states, this must cause nightmares already. Especially since it won't stop in 2009; not even the most rose colored forecasters see a significant improvement in jobless numbers any time soon.
If you look at the speed at which benefits are running out right now, going from almost zero to 1.5 million "clients" in just a few months, we could see millions of long-time, structurally unemployed soon. A true underclass.
Also, the discrepancy between initial claims and official job loss numbers begins to look ridiculous. A slight difference is fine, but 300% is crazy. Then again, that label applies to most US government data. Read More...
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