The United States is preparing for the possibility of nuclear war with North Korea and of a regime collapse in the isolated state, a Washington-based think tank said in a recent report.
In the analysis of an upcoming Defense Department review, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said a government team is examining several scenarios including "regime collapse in North Korea." It also said Washington may plan how to handle a confrontation with the North "that involves a nuclear strike."
The CSIS report, dated Aug. 27, offered a preview of the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review, the first to be released under the administration of Barack Obama. The paper is critical in setting defense policy.
Other contingencies for which the U.S. is preparing include a "loss of control over nuclear weapons in Pakistan" and a clash between China and Taiwan.
The possibility of regime collapse in North Korea has been a topic of discussion since rumors surfaced last year that leader Kim Jong-il suffered a stroke without a clear heir. In the months that followed, speculation has grown that Kim is grooming his third and youngest son, Jong-un, 26, to succeed him.
Adm. Timothy Keating, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, said in July that the U.S. has come up with scenarios to cope with any contingency in North Korea in the event of the senior Kim's death.
"We are prepared to execute a wide range of options in concert with allies in South Korea and in discussions through (the Department of) State, which would have the lead, with countries in the region, and internationally if necessary," he said.
"I don't think it is axiomatic that the departure of Kim Jong-il means a national security crisis. We'd hope it wouldn't. But we are going to be prepared if it does mean that."
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in February has also touched on the sensitive issue of North Korea's leadership change.
"There is an increasing amount of pressure because, if there is succession, even if it is a peaceful succession, that creates even more uncertainty and it also may encourage behaviors that are even more provocative as a way to consolidate power within the society," she said.
China has reportedly shunned proposals to discuss the possibility of a regime change or collapse in the North, apparently to avoid provoking its ally.
The CSIS draft analysis also said the U.S. faces "coordinated attacks on offshore energy production facilities, container ships and underwater communication lines that collectively are designed to upend the domestic and global economies."
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