1918 RBD D225G in Lung Cases in Ukraine and Norway Recombinomics Commentary 11:29 November 21, 2009
For the two 1918 HA variants, the South Carolina (SC) HA (with Asp190, Asp225) bound exclusively alpha2-6 receptors, while the New York (NY) variant, which differed only by one residue (Gly225), had mixed alpha2-6/alpha2-3 specificity, especially for sulfated oligosaccharides.
The above description is from a paper analyzing receptor binding domain differences in sequences from the 1918 pandemic. The New York variant had D225G, the same change found in lung tissues from fatal swine H1N1 sequences in Brazil, Ukraine, and Norway. The above result clearly demonstrated a change in receptor specificity for D225G, which was present in A/New York/1/1918 and A/London/1/1919, demonstrating the same change I 1918 that has been described in 2009. Although WHO stated that this change was "not significant" in the Ukraine samples, it was associated with the fatal cases and is cause for concern. The concern was increased by the announcement from Norway indicating the same change was found in fatal H1N1 lung infections there also.
Although there have been comments that this change was "spontaneous" and did not spread, the finding of the same change in all four deceased patients in Ukraine from two distinct locations, indicates it did spread, as did the finding of the same change in multiple cases in Brazil and Norway. Although the concept of "random mutation" has been used to explain away the sudden appearance of the same polymorphism on multiple backgrounds, the appearance via recombination is a much stronger argument for the same change to appear at multiple locations at the same time.
The spontaneous mutation theory, which is the foundation of WHO policy and statements on significance of changes relies heavily on a "selection" component, arguing that the same change keeps appearing on different backgrounds because of string selection pressure. However, this same phenomenon was described for a silent mutation on H5N1, which offers no clear selection pressure. Similarly, a silent change was also found in seasonal H1N1 in sequences that had acquired the Tamiflu resistance marker, H274Y. Thus, these silent (synonymous) changes string argue against a coincidental spontaneous mutation, and instead argue that this acquisition is concurrently acquired because of a widespread common donor.
The concept of acquisition via recombination has serious implications for the current pandemic. It was used to predict the D225G change, in part because the change was "in play" and appearing in July/August sequences at increasing frequency, even though the H1N1 sequences represented different genetic backgrounds. Similarly the clusters of Tamiflu resistance in Wales and North Carolina are also driven by recombination, as happened when the identical change was acquired in H1N1 seasonal flu in patients who were not taking Tamiflu (oseltamivir).
Thus, the concept of recombination predicts that the D225G receptor binding domain change, and the H274Y Tamiflu resistance change, which continue to spread via recombination
russiatoday.com British scientists suspect that swine flu virus has mutated in Ukraine. Some doctors say that flu in the country has shown unprecedented symptoms, creating the effect of “burnt” lungs, the Daily Mail reports.
Sources said that while British scientists are running their tests of the virus samples from Ukraine, some doctors claim the strain is dangerously mutating.
These doctors even liken swine flu symptoms in Ukraine with those of the Spanish flu that hit the world in early 20th Century, the Daily Mail reports.
It has also quoted an unnamed doctor in western Ukraine as saying that lungs of Ukraine swine flu victims look strikingly unusual.
“We have carried out post mortems on two victims and found their lungs are as black as charcoal. They look like they have been burned. It's terrifying,” doctor said.
Meanwhile, according to the World Health Organization, no mutations have been registered in virus samples from Ukraine.
The organization was quoted by AP as saying that preliminary genetic sequencing in British and American laboratories showed the virus from Ukraine is similar to that used for production of the pandemic flu vaccine.
The WHO said that the infection rate in Ukraine is quite in line with that in neighboring countries like Russia and Ukraine.
Meanwhile, versions of an H1N1 virus nature keep multiplying.
“It should be called a Jurassic Flu – the DNA of a woman who died in 1918 Spanish flu was recovered from her corpse,” said investigative reporter Wayne Madsen to RT.
“The DNA was used to recreate this virus and some of the individuals, especially of the University of Wisconsin, Madison, are now involved in a process to develop the vaccine for H1N1. I don’t think it takes a detective very much time to figure out what could be a ‘cause and effect’ relationship there,” he added.
Russia is stepping into the campaign to help Ukraine tackle the virus. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has signed an order to provide humanitarian aid to the country.
The Ministry of Health and Social Development allocated about US$800,000 to buy medication for Ukraine which has been delivered to the country by air.
The Ukrainian Health Ministry has registered some 1.5 million flu and respiratory illnesses since the start of the outbreak.
22 countries have sent aid to Ukraine following an appeal by President Yushchenko.
There are fears that H1N1 has now mutated and resembles the Spanish flu virus that killed more than 50 million people at the beginning of the 20th century. Ukrainian doctors say the victims lungs are as black as charcoal. This prompts fresh concern that the swine flu virus has taken a deadly new form.
The Kyiv Post reports [in broken English]: Ukrainian authorities hide the true information about swine flu in the country. Number of registered flu and ARVI accidents grew up in 2.5 times – Tymoshenko said. But it is not the real situation. Real number of victims is much higher. Doctors say, that more than 1000 people has already died of flu in Ukraine. Some hours ago the Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko has informed, that the number of registered flu and ARVI cases in Ukraine in Nov. 8-10 has grown up again more than in 2.5 times. Experts suppose about more than 2 million flu diseased.
Deadly flu continues to spread across Ukraine, criminal World Health Organization lies to the public, MSM maintains radio silence.
There are many aspects to this story. It is impossible to know where to begin -- let alone cover all the pertinent facts in just one article. Those who have followed my Zerohedge columns in the past may be aware the subject of pandemic influenza has been a regular feature, precisely because there have been multiple signs indicating a global pandemic would be exploited (and perhaps even initiated) by governments and international banks for political purposes.
The signs have been building, including as I previously reported, forced quarantine orders inadvertently published by the CDC. What do these people know which the public does not?
SUMMARY
Over the past two weeks, what appears to be a particularly virulent form of the flu has been spreading in Ukraine and adjacent Eastern European countries. This new flu is, in my opinion, a lethal new strain which has mutated (or was released). I speak with a background in virology. This new mutated flu virus appears to have a remarkable affinity for the lungs and is causing deaths to a much higher extent than the previous swine flu. Something in the virus has changed. I have covered this incredibly important story for two weeks now in my weekly column This Week In Mayhem, which is generally published on Monday mornings.
Regardless, there has been almost zero (NOTHING. NADA. SILENCE.) mention of the Ukraine epidemic in the mainstream media, a fact which I find both astonishing and profoundly disturbing. There is apparently collusion at the highest levels of government and media to suppress this information. There are now 1.3 million infected in Ukraine, and over 75,000 hospitalized -- IN FOURTEEN DAYS. This is very serious! Based on previous clinical data we can expect over 8,000 to be dead or soon to be dead. Forward projection of the epidemic is difficult because the clinical attack rate is unknown -- but myself and my associates remain concerned it may be quite high. Deaths globally may be in the millions. Let's hope this is not the case.
The new flu strain, which I contend is spreading in Ukraine and Belarus, is characterized by a lightning form of viral pneumonia -- very similar to what happened in 1918. The new flu virus appears to have profound tissue affinity for sialic acid receptors deep in the lungs, replicating in the alveoli. To put it mildly, the lungs fill with blood. Quotes from Ukrainian officials included quotes such as "total destruction of the lungs." Ukrainian Doctor Viktor Bachinsky has stated, "The virus causing the deaths is extremely aggressive -- it doesn't first infect the throat (as is common in flu), but strikes the lungs directly." In Ukraine's western Chernovetsky region, an epicenter of the outbreak, doctors have said lab tests showed at least some of the fatalties appeared to be caused by a flu dissimilar to both common flu and swine flu. In other words, a mutant flu. This claim of a 'mutant flu' has been echoed by Ukrainian public health officials such as Dr. Vasyl Lazoryshynetz. Unfortunately, as noted in the above Russia Today video, pharmacies across the country are sold out of antivirals. To the hard of thinking -- yes, this is currently happening in Ukraine.
I have multiple sources confirming spot outbreaks of viral pneumonia in Eastern Europe, including official and non-official entities. In terms of the current situation, there appear to be a high number of pneumonia patients in Ukrainian and Belerusian hospitals. This epidemic has not shut down Ukrainian society yet, but it has caused many people to become concerned, and to buy up essential medicines. Reports from doctors in Belarus indicate they do not expect this deadly new flu epidemic to peak until Christmas or later. This is why it is important to analyze the situation and viral genetics now, and if necessary, contain the spread of the virus while it is still possible -- something the criminals at WHO do not appear interested in doing. These idiots at WHO have yet to release the viral gene sequences (even though they have had them for two weeks), and are now outright lying in their press releases, which I detail later. In terms of how dangerous this new flu strain could potentially be, I conducted a rough analysis of the Ukrainian government statistics, yielding a projected case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.61% -- over six times as lethal as seasonal flu.
The Ukrainian government has been releasing daily data updates on the numbers of "acute respiratory infections" , the number of related hospitalizations , and the number of deaths since Oct 28, 2009. These reported numbers have increased substantially over the past two weeks, from near zero before Halloween to over a million as of today. It is important to remember that these statistics are not laboratory confirmed H1N1 cases (due to the state of the Ukrainian medical system), but we can cautiously assume at this point the vast majority of ARI (acute respiratory infection) in Ukraine with rapid progression to viral pneumonia are caused by influenza A virus. This is because a large subset of these samples are coming up positive of Influenza A, and a smaller subset tested by rt-rtPCR are coming up positive for influenza A/H1N1, or what is more commonly known as 'swine flu'. This suggests we are dealing with a viral epidemic of influenza.
This is not 'swine flu' as previously known. Statistically, the only way for this to be 'swine flu' is if it has mutated (or if the data is wrong). . . We will get to that in a minute.
As I mentioned , this data comes directly from the Ukrainian government. In the past two weeks, ARI have gone from near zero before Halloween to affecting 1.3 million Ukrainians. Over a million people are currently sick with probable H1N1. More importantly, there are over 75,000 total hospitalized at the time of the writing of this article, Monday 11/16. Based on these two figures (75,000 / 1.3 million), approximately 5.6% of those infected with this new ARI end up at the hospital. This is the critical statistic which allows us to estimate how f*cked we actually might be.
Officially, there are 299 deaths, but a realistic estimate shows this is easily one order of magnitude too low. Realistically deaths are between 2,000 - 8,000 people from this probable new strain of the flu -- so far. The number of dead is sure to rise dramatically, as we are only two weeks into this new epidemic. Which brings us to our estimation of the case fatality rate (CFR). Again, I would love to be wrong about this. Let's hope I am.
ZH ESTIMATION OF THE CASE FATALITY RATE
The current American strain 'swine flu' has a case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.1% or less. Seasonal flu has a CFR of 0.1%. The 1957 pandemic had a case fatality rate of 0.5%. The deadly 1918 pandemic had a CFR of 2 - 5%. Based on the Ukrainian government statistics, the new mutated Ukrainian flu has a CFR of 0.61% or higher -- that is, 6.1x as lethal as seasonal flu , perhaps more. Perhaps less if our assumptions are wrong.
We arrive at the 0.61% CFR statistic based on the number of hospitalizations in Ukraine vs. the number of infections. This estimate is only as good as the underlying data, but I have confidence it is in the ball-park (order of magnitude). I consider the official reported number of deaths (299) to be unreliable for political reasons. No one wants to be the country with the lethal flu. Doctors, especially those in Belarus (which is a dictatorship) feel strong administrative pressure to label influenza viral pneumonia deaths as something else, for example cardiac failure. Thus , ARI hospitalizations are the more reliable indicator for what is happening on the ground. Deaths can be implied from hospitalization statistics, assuming we are dealing with a form of H1N1 influenza.
Last week, the medical journal the Lancet published a meta-analysis of the (old) swine flu confirming a JAMA report that approximately 11% of hospitalized patients who had contracted the (old) swine flu died. We will use this 11% figure as our "middle case". The official government reported deaths (299) are considered “best case”. For a "worst case" estimate, we can assume that 25% of hospitalized flu patients will eventually die. We can use these 11% and 25% statistics to estimate the case fatality rate of the Ukrainian flu. The method is as follows:
To calculate the "middle case" and infer fatalities, we take 0.11 (11%, the figure from the JAMA) and multiply it by the number of Ukrainian hospitalizations on a particular date, to yield the expected number of ultimate fatalities. This method assumes the vast majority of reported ARI are from H1N1 swine flu. Using the November 15th data, this gives us 8345 expected fatalities. We take the number of expected fatalities and divide this into the total number who are estimated to be infected on the same particular data point (Nov 15). So 8345 deaths / 1.36 million infections , which yields the case fatality rate, which in this case is 0.61%. Obviously this is a rough estimate, but it is probably within an order of magnitude of the real CFR.
Assumptions for this model: 1) The vast majority of reported Ukrainian ARI are some form of H1N1 flu. 2) The data from the Ukrainian government for infections and hospitalizations is reliable and is not 'massaged' for political purposes.
Implications of this model: 1) If A1 and A2 are true, then statistically speaking we must be dealing with mutated H1N1 influenza (mutated 'swine flu').
In any case, this estimated CFR for Ukrainian flu is over six times higher than seasonal flu. Not good. Let's hope this is wrong. Our "worst case" 25% estimate gives a CFR of 1.39%, enough to eventually shut down commerce and society across the planet -- but fortunately it is likely this "worst case" estimate is far off the mark. For our estimates here, including the CFR estimate of 0.61% using the data from the JAMA -- supposing this estimate was purely based on Ukrainian government statistics, we could consider such an arbitrarily high Case Fatality Rate unreliable , and the product of bad data. However, in the context of multiple reports from individuals as well as state health authorities of MANY cases of viral pneumonia and thousands of patients in intensive care in Belarus and Ukraine, we consider this CFR estimate to make much more sense. That is, it fits the data on the ground of a worsening flu pandemic with a tendency towards viral pneumonia.
The old swine flu did not cause viral pneumonia, generally speaking. The new apparently mutated swine flu does, to an extent orders of magnitude higher. Thus , there must have been changes to the receptor binding domain , among other genes (perhaps PA, PB2, and NS1).
CRIMINAL BEHAVIOUR OF THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION
I am not fond of the World Health Organization. In my opinion, it is a tool of corrupt billionaire international financiers with which to achieve their dark global geopolitical objectives in the area of public health. These objectives are rarely in the public interest. We could spend paragraphs discussing deep corruption at WHO. One important point to remember is their obvious complicity and criminal cover-up regarding MMR vaccine contamination with Avian Leukosis Virus (ALV) , which may induce cancer.
The point here regarding WHO and the potential outbreak Ukraine is several:
-WHO has yet to release the gene sequences of the Ukrainian flu, despite possessing them for almost two weeks. They have also had a “team” on the ground in Lviv for a similar period of time. Where are the flipping gene sequences? The WHO has claimed there are no “big” mutations in the flu strain (apparently ruling out a viral reassortant), but has so far refused to release the Ukrainian flu gene sequences to the Internet community for analysis. This is reprehensible. What are these people doing? The world could know very quickly what we were dealing with if this genetic data was published, but instead it's being kept secret for whatever ulterior motives the WHO is operating under.
-WHO issued a press release on Friday which contained the following astonishing quote, bordering on deception.
“Because of a sharp rise in pandemic influenza cases one week ago in Ukraine, the Ministry of Health requested assistance from WHO European Regional Office to evaluate and respond. The initial analysis of information indicates that the numbers of severe cases do not appear to be excessive when compared to the experience of other countries and do not represent any change in the transmission or virulence of the virus.”
Okay, let's see: Ukraine asked WHO to respond. WHO sent a team to Lviv. So far so good, despite the missing gene sequences. Now wait, what? The WHO publishes their all-star analysis... “The number of severe cases do not appear to be excessive”? Are you kidding me? Please explain how 75,000 hospitalizations in two weeks is not 'excessive'? And how all the pharmacies sold out of antivirals? And how Ukraine is under de-facto martial law? And that Yushenko gave a prime-time speech more or less threatening political dissidents if they don't follow government orders? Or that school in Ukraine is canceled for three weeks? Half the country under quarantine? Hospitals seeing a surge of viral pneumonia patients? What gives? Are these people at WHO retarded or are they criminals?
Oh and of course the gem of this press release by WHO: That “[ the numbers of severe cases ] do not represent any change in the transmission or virulence of the virus.” Hahahaa! You are going to tell me that Ukraine went from two cases to 1.3 million cases in 14 days , and that doesn't represent any change in transmission? Is this supposed to be a joke? These pharmaceutical crooks damn well better explain themselves if you are going to make claims so obviously contrary to reality. Does the WHO contend the Ukrainian government just pulling these figures out of the air? What of the case reports of rapidly deteriorating viral pneumonia in Belarus, Ukraine, and Romania? What is causing this? What about the statements from Ukrainian health officials that we have a new flu strain? On what data are WHO basing these preposterous claims, which fly in the face of reality and common sense? Why not release the Ukrainian gene sequences? There is an obvious spike in mortality and pneumonia – why? Does WHO contend this is another pathogen besides influenza? If so, what? Honestly, this statement issued Friday November 13th from WHO is so obviously full of lies I really don't even have to comment; anyone with a brain can see they are not telling us the truth.
-WHO dodges questions from Bloomberg and Sun Media regarding a mutation in Ukrainian flu during last weeks press conference.
Phil Serafino, Bloomberg: Dr Shindo........I have a second question also which may not be your area of expertise but have you heard anything about the mutation of the virus or has it changed at all - are we looking at anything different than a few months ago?
Dr Shindo /WHO: Well, I can answer that question first. The virus is quite stable. It hasn't changed........
Joseph: This is Joseph from Kuala Lumpur - I am from the Sun Media......I just want to ask whether or not any slight mutation even a drift variant has been noticed so far?
Dr Shindo / WHO: Amazingly this virus is very stable and part of the reason, virologists (are saying) is because of the lack of pre-existing immunity in population so that virus doesn't have to mutate to escape from people's immunity. So it's quite stable.
What a joke! You'd think these fools at WHO were politicians , rather than doctors! Twice, the WHO official dodges questions from reporters (Bloomberg nonetheless!) on whether we are dealing with a critical new mutation in Ukraine sequences responsible for higher lethality and infectivity. Unbelievable. Again, I suggest these actions by WHO, taken in concert, are more akin to the actions of a criminal syndicate than to a global public health service. Lies and evasion. Stonewalling. Is this how we expect public servants to behave, especially on time-crucial issues upon which millions of lives depend? Unfortunately this is par for the course. Perhaps we should re-evaluate our conception of the world in which we live. hint: it is so incredibly corrupt, it defies man's imagination.
-Someone personally contacted WHO asking point-blanc , “Is there a critical mutation in this flu in Eastern Europe” and was met with silence.
The above speaks for itself. I was made aware of this contact through a phone conversation with a journalist from globalresearch.ca. More...
Time Chinese health officials reported on Friday the first deaths in people who received the H1N1 vaccine. The Ministry of Health announced that the two people, including one teacher from Hunan province, died hours after receiving their inoculations. Since September, when the Ministry began its H1N1 immunization program, 12 million Chinese have received the pandemic flu shot.
A preliminary autopsy revealed that the teacher died of an apparent heart attack while playing basketball, and a Ministry spokesperson told the China Daily newspaper that the death was "a coincidental medical incident" and not related to the vaccine. No details on the second victim have been released so far.
As they conduct an autopsy investigation into the second death, Chinese health officials have pulled all vaccines manufactured in the same batch used to inoculate the teacher. Although the H1N1 vaccine has been rigorously tested and vetted for safety, no inoculation can be considered 100% safe and may cause adverse events, including death, in some people.
Taking an aggressive approach to the pandemic flu, back in June the Chinese government asked 11 biotech companies to develop a pandemic H1N1 vaccine. Beijing-based Sinovac succeeded in developing the world's first approved swine flu shot. The company raced to conduct clinical trials, and was the first to report that a single dose of vaccine, instead of the two doses that most flu experts had believed would be necessary, was sufficient to protect against 2009 H1N1. In early September, China became the first country to begin swine flu inoculations.
But by the end of October, 54% of Chinese residents reported in a China Daily survey that they would not get the H1N1 vaccine because of concerns about the shot's safety. That prompted the director of the World Health Organization's Beijing office, Dr. Michael O'Leary, to tell the newspaper, "The H1N1 vaccine is one of the safest vaccines being used. When it's available to me, I would not hesitate to get the vaccine developed and produced by China."
Three vaccine manufacturers in China, including Sinovac, have received orders from the government for more than 34 million doses. Among the 12 million inoculated so far, 1,235 have complained of side effects, ranging from sore arms, rashes, and headaches, to anaphylactic shock and sudden drops in blood pressure.
While the Chinese government has been criticized for its draconian public health response to swine flu — using quarantines, canceling school and detaining entire planeloads of people when a single passenger appears to have flulike symptoms — the country's officials say the strict measures helped stem the spread of flu. So far, China reports about 36 deaths and 62,800 H1N1 cases — compared with U.S. government estimates of 4,000 American deaths and 22 million infections. China plans to immunize 65 million citizens, or 5% of the country's population, by the end of the year. As in the U.S., health officials are targeting high priority groups first, including the military, police, health-care workers, teachers, students and those with chronic diseases.
Ukraine Dead Increase to 239 - Still No Sequences Recombinomics Commentary 20:26 November 12, 2009 1,253,558 Influenza/ARI
65.615 Hospitalizations
239 Deaths
The above numbers are from the latest update from the Ukraine Ministry of Health. The number of deaths increased 26 to 239, so 50 new deaths have been reported in the past 2 days. Although the virus continues to spread (only 5 of the 27 reporting areas have not topped the epidemic threshold) many of the deaths are still being reported from the hard hit areas in western Ukraine(see map). However, the biggest jump in cases was 6.096 in Kiev to 89,339.
The steady increase in the high level of deaths continues to raise concerns about genetic changes in the H1N1. In this morning's press conference the WHO discussed the need for prompt treatment with Tamiflu, but did not address genetic changes in Ukraine. Only general statements on the stability of the H1N1 were made in response to questions on genetic changes in Ukraine. Today's conference is a week after the last comments on the Ukraine H1N1 sequences which indicated that there were no large changes, but an update would be forthcoming in a "few days". It has now been over a week and no updates on genetic changes have been forthcoming.
The release of the sequences from Ukraine is long overdue.
Socio-Economics History Blog The entire 13 per cent of Norway’s population is now infected with the swine flu. The estimates of Public Health (FHI) for the latest updated situation report that was published late Wednesday night.
Both the incidence of influenza-like illness and the number of confirmed flu cases has increased sharply throughout the country in recent weeks. But last week was a steep upward curve.
Rekorduke According to the NIPH was all as many as 300,000 Norwegians infected with swine flu only last week.
- We estimate that just under 630,000 Norwegians are now infected and that nearly 300,000 were infected just last week. There are a large number and it tells us that we are in the middle of a new and powerful wave of infection which is significantly stronger than the one we had this summer, “said Hans Blystad, superintendent at the NIPH.
He will not mean anything if, or when, we can expect to reach a temporary peak of infection, but said a leveling off of the number of new infected first is probably when even more is vaccinated. Infection estimates of the NIPH is based on reported cases in the last week from 201 physician offices spread across the country, including laboratory tests and how many were diagnosed with “influenza-like illness”.
14 percent of those who went to the doctor last week had this diagnosis. Of the tests that were done in more detail in the laboratory showed all samples swine influenza virus.
Hospitals Svineinfluensavirset has now spread epidemic in the whole country, and is most extensive in the Southeast and West Coast. So far, 772 Norwegians hospitalized in connection with the swine flu pandemic. 94 received intensive treatment, and 16 are dead. 13 of them died in hospital. Yesterday was the 93 people hospitalized, and 20 in intensive care. Deputy Health Director Bjorn Guldvog believe that the number of infected in Norway will increase.
- We believe we are on a rising wave in the number of infected people. But soon, almost all the risk groups vaccinated, so we hope for a avflating in the number of critically ill and died, “said Guldvog.
AFP KIEV — Ukraine's epidemic of flu and acute respiratory disorders has now affected more than a million people, the country's deputy health minister said on Tuesday.
Vasyl Lazoryshynets said the death toll from the epidemic had risen to 174, as President Viktor Yushchenko warned the country must brace itself for a second wave of infections.
Nearly 53,000 Ukrainians have now been hospitalised, Lazoryshynets said, but the number in intensive care has fallen by nearly a quarter to around 330.
A total of 67 cases of swine flu have been reported in Ukraine, he said, 14 of which had been fatal.
"Ukraine must prepare properly for a second wave of respiratory infections and flu," including A(H1N1), Yushchenko said Tuesday, according to the Interfax news agency.
A World Health Organisation (WHO) team in Ukraine said on Monday the epidemic had slowed, but warned a second wave was likely.
On Monday the health ministry's previous bulletin on the epidemic, which began in mid-October, reported 969,000 infections, with 155 deaths and 65 cases of A(H1N1).
The plague or virus in the Ukraine has 10 times the mortality rate (attributed to) normal swine flu. It may signal what's soon heading everywhere.
On October 29, the Australian web site zik.com.ua reported that:
"Western Ukraine was hit by a severe epidemic of unidentified influenza, tentatively diagnosed by doctors as viral pneumonia. The number of dead has climbed dramatically. Doctors advise Western Ukrainians to stay home and use preventive medicine."
On October 30, Jane Burgermeister's theflu.com reported that:
"More than 30 people have died in the Ukraine as a result of a mysterious new virus that has an affinity for the lungs," according to Swiss reports. Ukraine's Health Ministry said the virus' origin is unknown and showed "no signs of mutating to become more virulent." So far, 40,000 people were reported sick and 951 hospitalized.
On October 30, healthfreedomalliance.org reported that Ukraine's Health Minister, Vasyl Knyazevych, said two laboratories diagnosed 11 of 33 samples tested as "highly influenza A/H1N1." As a result, he considered declaring a nationwide quarantine, even though western areas alone were affected.
Since October 19, 30 deaths, including one child, from "acute respiratory infections," were reported, at first called SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome, a serious form of pneumonia caused by a virus). Influenza A virus affects birds and some mammals like pigs.
WTO Fear Mongering
The WTO says Swine Flu is similar to seasonal strains. Most cases are mild, and many people recover unaided. Yet it called the virus "unstoppable" and, on June 11, declared its highest phase 6 alert, saying: "The world is now at the start of the 2009 influenza pandemic." On July 13, it stopped just short of mandating mass vaccinations to halt the pandemic's spread.
On its November 1 "Pandemic (H1N1) 2009" update, it said "more than 199 countries and overseas territories/communities have reported laboratory confirmed cases of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009, including over 6,000 deaths."
On November 3, it reported the outbreak in Ukraine, "confirmed (as) H1N1 (based on) samples taken from patients in two of the most affected regions," and concluded that "most (Ukraine influenza) cases are caused by the H1N1 virus.
Infectious disease expert, Dr. Donald Lau, disagrees, saying:
"The statistical probability of this being the same H1N1 virus (is) infinitesimally small." He believes a highly virulent new strain is to blame. Public health authority, Dr. Leonard G. Horowitz sees a deadly connection between governments and the drug cartel over dangerous, toxic vaccines. On You Tube, he recently warned that:
"These vaccinations contain highly unstable viruses that easily mutate, because they are 'live active' laboratory mutants that are being administered....People shed these 'live' viruses up to three weeks following vaccination. That means if you haven't been vaccinated, and you get near someone who has and then sneezes, you can get their H1N1 laboratory infection."
He explained that anyone contracting H1N1, from vaccinations or other Swine Flu-infected persons, risks combining it with other internal or environmental viruses, creating a lethal mix that can kill. He expressed great concern about vaccines used to transmit dangerous viruses, capable of mutating into deadly ones, believes this may be happening in Ukraine, and thinks America and other nations may be next.
Ukraine Reports of Overhead Aerosol Spraying
On October 31, Kiev newspaper editors got dozens of calls about light planes doing aerosol spraying during the day. In refuting the claims, the district's Emergency Response office said "no permission had been granted for small aviation aircraft to fly within the city limits." Yet eye-witness accounts from Lviv, Ternopil, and other Ukraine cities said the same thing.
On November 8, the South African web site fto.co.za reported that last June 26:
"Suspicious aircraft were forced to land. A US operated (Russian-made long-range heavy transport) AN-124 changed its call sign from civilian to military which then triggered a response from the IAF (Indian Air Force) upon entering Pakistani air space (forcing) the plane to land in Mumbai while (a) second one was forced down by Nigerian fighter jets that also arrested the crew."
"According to reports, China's People's Liberation Army Air Force contacted the Indian and Nigerian intelligence officials about the presence of these US operated Ukrainian aircraft amidst growing concern that the United States was spreading 'biological agents' in the Earth's atmosphere, which some Chinese officials believed to be an attempt to (commit) mass genocide via the spread of H1N1 swine flu."
These aircraft "were carrying 'waste disposal' systems that could spray up to 45,000kg (nearly 100,000 pounds) of aerial type mist from sophisticated....nano pipes" in the planes' wings - called chemtrails.
"Then last week, (aircraft) sprayed (an unknown) substance over Ukraine days before the (mysterious) plague outbreak."
Quarantine and Martial Law Declared
On October 30, president Viktor Yushchenko quarantined nine regions, ordered mobile military hospitals established throughout the country, and was expected to declare martial law. Reports from western Ukraine said a "severe outbreak of UNIDENTIFIED Influenza, (is) suspected by doctors to be a form of viral pneumonia."
On November 4, in a nationwide address, Yushchenko cited:
an "emergency epidemic situation in the country," caused by "infections of viral origin, including A/H1N1 flu (that are) rapidly spreading across Ukraine;"
"People are dying; the epidemic is killing doctors;"
"three pathogens of viral infections came to Ukraine at the same time: two of them are seasonal flu and the third is the A/H1N1; according to virologists, such a combination of infections due to mutation may produce a new, even more aggressive virus;"
"It is generally known that the only way to prevent any infection is vaccination;" Dr. Viera Scheibner, the world's foremost vaccine expert, calls it the worst way as vaccines often cause the diseases they're designed to prevent;
"in early October," it was known that "viral infections in the west of the country" were spreading;
"The current Constitution after alterations in 2004 makes the Government solely responsible for conducting state healthcare policy....(by) my decree I put" the National Security and Defense Council (in charge) of decision-making;"
"Failure to comply with its orders will immediately result in application to the law enforcement authorities."
In other words, Yushchenko declared martial law. He also ordered a crackdown on political protests, the arrest of public health officials opposed to mass Swine Flu vaccinations and quarantines, arrests of anyone not complying, and a ban on all infection medicines except Swine Flu vaccines.
By November 6, Deputy Health Minister, Zinovy Mytnyk, said "633,877 people (were) suffering from flu and acute respiratory infections," and "95" had died.
On November 7, healthfreedomalliance.org updated the totals to "871,037 Influenza/ARI (acute respiratory infection) cases, 39,603 hospitalized, and 135 deaths, and asked if Baxter released a bioweapon in Ukraine, saying "Evidence appears to suggest" it. It cited a February 24 bloomberg.com report that "Baxter Sent Bird Flu Virus to European Labs by Error (containing) contaminated (virus) samples...."
The problem was discovered when inoculated ferrets in a Czech lab died. Austrian health minister, Sigrid Rosenberger, confirmed that Baxter supplied batches "infected with a bird flu virus." Company spokesperson, Christopher Bona, blamed "human error." Others were skeptical, including Austrian journalist Jane Burgermeister.
On June 10, she filed sweeping criminal charges with the FBI in addition to earlier April 8 ones with the Vienna State Prosecutor's Office against Baxter AG, Baxter International and Avir Green Hill Biotechnology AG, "for manufacturing, disseminating, and releasing a biological weapon of mass destruction on Austrian soil between December 2008 and February 2009 with the intention of causing a global bird flu pandemic virus and of intending to profit from that same pandemic in an act that violates laws on international organised crime and genocide."
Baxter operates Biosafety Level 3 (BLS-3) labs that take strict precautions to assure against accidental H3N2 (human influenza) and H5N1 (bird flu) co-mingling contamination. Letting it happen suggests something more nefarious than an accident.
BLS-3 personnel are trained in handling pathogenic and potentially lethal agents and are supervised by competent, experienced scientists. In addition, these labs have specially engineered design features for added safety.
By combining H3N2 and H5N1 viruses, "Baxter produced a highly dangerous biological weapon with a 63 per cent mortality rate. The H5N1 virus is restricted in its human-to-human transmissibility, especially because it is less airborne."
"However when....combined with seasonal flu viruses (easily transmitted by air), a new flu virus is created which is unknown to the human immune system and which will have a severe impact on an unprotected population. A deadly virus of this kind could spread around the world in a short time and (potentially) infect millions (or) even billions of people."
Baxter (via Avir) "distributed (72 kilos of) contaminated (live bird flu) vaccines using false concealment and false labels to 16 laboratories in Austria and....other countries at the end of January/beginning of February, potentially infecting at least 36-37 laboratory staff, who (were) treated preventively for bird flu and ordinary flu." On the same day, 18 Avir employees were as well at Vienna's Otto Wagner Hospital.
Burgermeister cited a Baxter-Avir 2006 contract with Austria's Health Ministry for 16 million vaccine doses in case a bird flu pandemic was declared. This "laboratory incident shows that national and international authorities are not able to fulfill their obligations to ensure the safety of the Austrian people," and indicates they engaged in a cover-up.
"If a pharmaceutical company can breach laws - and almost trigger a bird flu pandemic, which (potentially could spread worldwide) - without being made accountable for it....then there is, de facto, no rule of law on Austrian territory."
She also contends that Baxter's production system, "namely, the use of 1200 liter bioreactors and vero cell technology," meets "the technical criteria to be classified as a secret dual purpose large-scale bioweapon production facility (able to produce) a huge amount of contaminated vaccine material....rapidly."
"If (this) material were added to the 1200 liter bioreactors, it would replicate and infect the entire batch of vaccine material in (it). Contaminated material could (then) be distributed among sections of the population using false labels and secretly marked batches (able to) infect millions of people."
Burgermeister accused high-level Austrian Health and other Ministry officials of knowledge and support of this practice. Otherwise, controls would have prevented it. In June, she named drug producers Baxter, Novartis and Sanofi Aventis; world agencies, including the WHO, UN, and CDC; and high-level officials in Austria, other European countries, and America.
Did Baxter Release a Bioweapon in Ukraine?
Baxter has a facility in Ukraine. Given the above evidence, it may be behind the current outbreak. A November 1 David Rothscum infowars.com article headlined: "Has Baxter International released a biological weapon," in citing an earlier Huffington Post report on a man named Joseph Moshe, a Mossad biological warfare expert. True or not, he warned, on an August radio program, about "a biological weapon....being made by Baxter International('s Ukraine facility) that would be spread through vaccine and would cause a plague upon its release." Having reported this two months before the outbreak lends credence to his story.
In August, Ukraine was almost influenza free. On October 30, earthtimes.org said only two cases of Swine Flu had been reported. According to fto.co.za, on March 26, reports were that "thousands of Ukrainians refused" to be vaccinated, because of fears about "diphtheria, mumps, polio, hepatitis B, tuberculosis, (and) whooping cough among others. Health officials said (this) could lead to disease outbreaks...." Perhaps unleashing a "biological weapon" is how to convince them and millions elsewhere.
Rothscum confirmed Moshe's credentials, noting that "massive numbers of microbiologists have been dying bizarre deaths." Among them:
Stephen Lagakos, Professor of Biostatistics and AIDS researcher at Harvard's School of Public Health, died in an October auto collision;
Malcolm Casadaban, reknown molecular geneticist, died of plague in September;
Wallace Pannier, noted germ warfare scientist, died in August of respiratory failure;
August "Gus" Watanabe, former Eli Lilly and Company Executive Vice President of Science and Technology and former head of its Research Laboratories, died of apparent self-inflicted wounds from a .38-caliber handgun; a note left behind cited depression over his daughter's death;
Caroline Coffey, Cornell University post-doctoral biomedicine researcher, died in June from massive cuts to her throat; and
Nasser Talebzadeh Ordoubadi, a Mind-Body-Quantum medicine pioneer and discoverer of an antitoxin treatment for bioweapons, died in February of "suspicious" causes.
On November 7, theflucase.com asked:
Is the Ukraine outbreak "the plague? A mutated virus? Or is the plague the cover for introducing a mutated virus?" Citing the South African web site fto.co.za., it wondered if the Ukraine Swine Flu strain "might have mutated (to) pneumonic plague."
It reported Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Health saying his nation has a different H1N1 strain than the rest of the world because of how many were infected so fast. Other officials disagree and suggest this one may have mutated to something else because it "has a much bigger rate of filling the lungs with blood....The plague or virus in the Ukraine has 10 times the mortality rate (attributed to) normal swine flu."
However, unconfirmed reports are that "people are going on as normal....they also say this is fear mongering" to promote voluntary vaccinations. "Everyone is waiting for the gene sequences which will confirm whether this has been hyped up, a real mutated H1N1, or just bad (Ukraine) health services." Perhaps exaggerated illness and death reports to stoke fear and be a pretext for what followed.
Ukraine is now under martial law. Civil liberties are suspended. By government edict, anyone may be criminally prosecuted. Scheduled January elections may be delayed or cancelled. Public demonstrations are banned. Political opponents are prohibited from traveling in quarantined areas. Borders are partially closed. Mandated vaccinations are coming. WHO fear-mongering is hyping the danger. A month before the outbreak, it took part in a bioterrorism plague exercise. On November 7, Lake of the Hills, IL police conducted their own against pneumonic plague as part of the McHenry County Department of Health's emergency planning.
Burgermeister suggests that Baxter, the:
"WTO and the international corporate crime syndicate that funds them may have decided they could go ahead with their plan to trigger a pandemic in Europe and the USA because the public awareness of the dangers of the vaccine has become too great, not least as a result of WHO and Baxter being caught contaminating 72 kilos of vaccine material with the live bird flu virus in February."
Opposition to Vaccinations in Europe
Across the continent, opposition is widespread. Few are showing up to get it. On November 7 in Paris, a public demonstration against them was held. As of November 5, less than 0.1% of the French population was inoculated despite a mass vaccination campaign. 90% of Greek health workers oppose them. Reports from Portugal say vaccine centers are nearly empty, and doctors and nurses won't take them. Sources expect a "revolution" if they're mandated.
A mid-October Der Spiegel article reported an "open rebellion" among general medical professionals and child physicians across Germany over dangerous Swine Flu vaccines. Dieter Ludwig, drug commission chairman of the German medical profession, said health authorities colluded with drug companies to promote them.
In Denmark, most public officials and healthcare workers won't take them, citing the danger and saying H1N1 is no different from seasonal flu. Throughout Scandinavia, sentiment is the same with up to 75% opposition. In Sweden, as few as several thousand have gotten them. Across the continent also, in the Netherlands, Spain, Belgium and elsewhere. Also large segments of the US, Canadian and UK populations voice strong opposition. Open protests are occurring in Austria. In other countries as well. Millions know the toxicity and won't touch them. Ukraine's outbreak may be a counteroffensive to force them, first there, then globally.
Ukraine Outbreak Spreads
On November 6, innworldreport.net headlined, "Pneumonic Plague Outbreak in China Follows Outbreak in Ukraine." The town of Ziketan (population 10,000) reported two deaths and a dozen others infected. The "area inside a 17-mile radius" was quarantined to contain it. The "highly contagious disease, one of the most virulent and deadly diseases on earth, (is) usually fatal within 24 hours. It attacks the lungs and kills nearly everyone who catches it unless treated rapidly with antibiotics."
On the same day, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko called the panic over Swine Flu artificially created by drug companies. He urged people not to panic, and said authorities are monitoring the situation in neighboring Ukraine. Ten deaths were reported in the Minsk, "preceded by flu-like symptoms."
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty disseminates US propaganda in 20 countries, including Russia, Ukraine, Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan. On November 4, it headlined, "Swine Flu Fears Spread from Ukraine to Afghanistan," then reported, true or false, incidences showing up in Iran, Belarus, Turkmenistan, Serbia, and other Balkan countries. "Afghanistan has declared a nationwide public health emergency and closed all educational institutes for three weeks."
On November 2, the Chinese web site sina.com reported that authorities in a southeast Bulgarian district declared an A/H1N1 epidemic, according to local media accounts. The "sick rate" rose "to 200 per 10,000 people," and in some towns is approaching epidemic levels. A later report said 210 per 10,000. Two deaths were reported, and Bulgaria's chief health expert, Tencho Tenev, said "at least two million Bulgarians, or 30 percent of (the) population, could become infected with the flu virus over the coming months."
On November 9, thebirdflupandemic.com headlined, "Russia, Belarus and Bulgaria On The Verge Of A Flu Epidemic As Cases In Ukraine Near 1 Million."
Same day Ukraine reports said 1,031,597 people are sick with flu-like symptoms, 52,742 have been hospitalized, and 174 people have died. On November 6, Russia's Chief Health Official, Gennady Onishchenko, said most regions in the country "are on the verge of a flu epidemic."
"Disturbing reports are beginning to surface in western Europe. In Austria, special army units based in Korneuburg (where Baxter's facilities are located), have been conducting pandemic emergency exercises and quarantining patients in hospitals. Are they expecting something to happen?"
WHO "Whole-of-Society Pandemic Readiness Guidelines for Pandemic Preparedness and Response in the Non-Health Sectors"
Prepared in April 2009, the same month Swine Flu was reported in Mexico, it was revised in July and now easily accessed coincidently with the Ukraine outbreak. Its aim is:
"to prepare the whole of society, beyond the health sector, for pandemic influenza....including public and private sector organizations and essential services."
The flucase.com says it "outlines how WHO will take over a country's essential services, including water and sanitation; fuel and energy; food; health care; telecommunications; finance; law and order; education; and transportation under the pretext of a pandemic emergency."
The "guidelines" state:
"National inter-ministerial pandemic preparedness committees should map out the central government's roles, responsibilities, and chain of command and designate lead agencies," answerable to the WHO that's perhaps enforceable during a "health emergency." It may work like this.
Vaccine law attorney, Alan G. Phillips says:
"....underlying laws.... allow states to mandate vaccines in an emergency....throw out exemptions, (and) impose quarantines and isolation outside of our homes."
US laws are similar. They can mandate vaccinations and let states isolate and quarantine influenza victims if authorities call the disease infectious and life-threatening. Under the 2006 Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness (PREP) Act, the HHS Secretary may declare any disease an epidemic or national emergency requiring mandatory vaccinations, quarantine, or other protective measures. It's a short step to empowering WHO with authority over most nations in short order.
Its "guidelines" also want Defense Ministries to designate military assets to enforce vaccinations and quarantines under pandemic conditions. They also say:
"Ministries of Justice should consider what legal processes could be suspended during the pandemic and make alternate plans to operate courts" while it continues.
According to theflucase.com:
"leaked (French) documents show that the Minister of Justice has ordered the suspension of the most basic rights, and people can be incarcerated for up to six months without having to appear before a judge in a pandemic emergency."
Might America and other nations order similar measures under a "pandemic emergency," real or bogus.
Internal 2006 IBM Document Reveals Advance Knowledge of a Planned Pandemic
Titled, "Services & Global Procurement pan IOT Europe, Pandemic Plan Overview," it was distributed to upper-level management in France. It predicted a "100% chance (of a) planned (pandemic) occurring within the next 5 years," covering quarantines and operational procedures to be taken after an official WTO announcement. This document suggests what many believe - that governments and the drug cartel, in collusion with the WTO, orchestrated the current crisis, choosing Ukraine as the lead target. The situation there deserves close monitoring because of what may happen globally.
Advance Pandemic Warning and Early Preparations
Replikins, Ltd. is a small Boston-based biotech firm that "develops and markets....predictive products and vaccines....based upon the company's discovery of Replikins, a new group of peptides related to the rapid replication function in viral and other diseases (capable of) predicting the emergence of virulent strains of particular diseases."
On April 7, 2008, a year before the reported Mexican H1N1 outbreak, it published a "FluForecast" stating the following:
"Replikins, Ltd. has found that the Replikin Count of the H1N1 strain of influenza virus has recently increased to 7.6 (plus/minus 1.4), its highest level since the 1918 H1N1 pandemic....A rising Replikin Count of a particular influenza strain, indicating the rapid replication of the virus, is an early warning which has been followed consistently by an outbreak of a specific strain. The current increase appears to be specific to H1N1; there was a concurrent 80% decline in the Replikin Count of (seasonal) H3N2, for instance."
"The current H1N1 appears to be rapidly replicating simultaneously in the US and Austria....However, the same virus replikin structures detected by FluForecast software in all three previous pandemics, namely 1918 H1N1, 1957 H2N2, and 1968 H3N2, as well as in H5N1 (Avian Flu), have not yet been detected in the currently evolving H1N1."
In an October 24, 2007 press release, the US Treasury Department discussed the "preliminary results of the industry-wide pandemic flu exercise....More than 2,700 organizations registered to participate anonymously (which) began in September and ran for three weeks." Involved were banks, insurance companies, securities firms and exchanges, and state and federal regulators.
"The exercise simulated a pandemic wave with a peak absenteeism rate of 49 percent....President Bush directed Treasury in May 2006 to coordinate with the banking and finance sector to better prepare its response to a pandemic crisis."
On December 12, 2007, FEMA Region I (for New England) hosted a joint federal-state exercise "to strengthen contingency plans for an influenza pandemic. Operation PANEX 07 is the first functional exercise of its type in this country designed to determine best practices for a coordinated multi-agency response to an outbreak."
Participating agencies included the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Health and Human Services (HHS), and Defense (DOD) "in partnership with their counterparts in the six New England states."
On July 28, 2009, CNN reported that the Pentagon will "establish regional teams of military personnel to assist civilian authorities in the event of a significant outbreak of the H1N1 virus this fall, according to Defense Department officials....The plan calls for military task forces to work in conjunction with (FEMA)."
Consider the implications. On October 23, Obama declared a H1N1 national emergency. The Pentagon will be in charge if conditions warrant it. Civil liberties may be suspended. Martial law may be declared. Mandatory toxic, dangerous vaccinations may be ordered, known to cause auto immune diseases ranging from annoying to debilitating to life-theatening. The situation in Ukraine bears watching. It may signal what's soon heading everywhere.
Today the borders that link Slovakia to Ukraine will be closing down to stop the spread of the h1n1 epidemic, it is still not clear whether this is the h1n1 or pneumonic plague.
All border posts linking the two countries will be closed except one where Doctors and health officials will monitor people that pass and will ban them from entering the country if they display symptoms.
The death toll of the flu outbreak / pneumonic plague has risen to 144 cases according to Ukraine Health officials. It is still unclear whether this is the number of fatalities from h1n1 or the pneumonic plague or both.
The Health ministry of the Ukraine mentioned 14 confirmed deaths of h1n1 but the rest of the fatalities remain unclear.
Additional reports from Buitenland indicate Slowakia has closed all but one border to Ukraine because of the flu outbreak. In Ukraine now more than 900.000 people are infected, 135 died so far.
At the only open border at Vysne Nemecke, doctors are stationed to check EVERY PERSON for flu symptoms. Who ever has flu symptoms will not be allowed in the country.
Withheld Ukraine Sequences Raise Pandemic Concerns Recombinomics Commentary 02:30 November 7, 2009 Right now we know that many clinical specimens and viruses have been sent to one of the WHO collaborating centres for further study. We don't know the results of those studies, and it will probably take a couple of days for the full analysis of those viruses to be available. But in the meantime, what we do not have is any evidence of viruses there or anywhere else as showing any big mutations. I raise this point because I have seen in some media reports that there are reports that WHO or other groups are saying that there are mutations and I want to point out that these are rumours and factually, untrue.
The above comments from Keiji Kukuda offer some general comments on the Ukrainian H1N1 sequences at Mill Hill in London. He specifically says WHO doesn't see any "big" mutations in the samples being sequenced, which would refer to reassortment or Tamiflu resistance. However, the changes seen in Ukraine do not require "big" mutations. Small mutations, such as SNP can have profound effects for a virus like pandemic H1N1.
That virus normally circulates in swine, and has recently jumped to humans. It already has many characteristics with the 1918 pandemic strain. Both are swine H1N1 that jumped to humans. Such species jumpers can increase efficiencies with small changes. One good example is position 627 in the PB2 gene. That position comes in two forms. When there is glutamic acid (E) at that position, the PB2 enzyme copies the viral genetic material most efficiently at 41 C, the body temperature of a bird. However, if that position has a lysine (K), the enzyme is most active at 33 C, the temperature of a human nose in the winter. The swine H1N1 has an E, which may be why it goes well in lung, which is 37 C and closer to the optimal replication temperature of 41C. However, a single change that produced the most efficient replication at 37C would lead to even higher levels in the lungs, which could lead to frequent cytokine storms, like those in 1918, instead of the less frequent level seen in Ukraine.
However, the rapid spread of H1N1 in Ukraine (see map), coupled with the high frequency of hemorrhagic pneumonia raise concerns that a small change is leading to a more virulent virus. Similarly, the rapid spread of the virus could also be affected by a small change in another gene, such as HA, which controls entry of the virus to cells and influences tissue tropism.
Mill Hill has acknowledged that they have at least 15 H1N1 positive samples from Ukraine, which would identify a Ukranian specific change. The delay in the announcement of sequence results raises concerns that such changes have been detected, and such changes are undergoing further analysis.
The number of cases in Ukraine continues to expand. The number of patients with H1N1 symptoms is now approaching 1 million. Cases have been increasing at almost 200,000 per day, so it is likely that tomorrow's report will have over 1 million cases. This rapid spread increases concern that the 15 sequences at Mill Hill contain one or more of these small changes, which has led to a delay in the announcement of sequence results.
More detail on the sequences at Mill Hill is overdue. The rapid spread of H1N1 in Ukraine demands rapid sequence results. Continued delay will only increase concerns.
Fox President Obama signed a proclamation declaring the H1N1 influenza a national emergency, giving doctors and medical facilities greater leeway in responding to the flu pandemic.
Obama signed the declaration late Friday, which the White House said allows medical treatment facilities to better handle a surge in flu patients by waiving federal requirements on a case-by-case basis.
"The foundation of our national approach to the H1N1 flu has been preparedness at all levels -- personal, business, and government -- and this proclamation helps that effort by advancing our overall response capability," the White House said in a statement.
In the proclamation, Obama said the pandemic keeps evolving, the rates of illness are rising rapidly in many areas and there's a potential "to overburden health care resources."
Because of vaccine production delays, the government has backed off initial, optimistic estimates that as many as 120 million doses would be available by mid-October. As of Wednesday, only 11 million doses had been shipped to health departments, doctor's offices and other providers, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The government now hopes to have about 50 million doses of vaccine for the so-called swine flu out by mid-November and 150 million in December.
The flu virus has to be grown in chicken eggs, and the yield hasn't been as high as was initially hoped, officials explained.
H1N1 is more widespread now than it's ever been. Health authorities say almost 100 children have died from the flu, and 46 states now have widespread flu activity.
Worldwide, more than 5,000 people have reportedly died from swine flu since it emerged this year and developed into a global epidemic, the World Health Organization said Friday. Since most countries have stopped counting individual swine flu cases, the figure is considered an underestimate.
The flu has infected millions of Americans and killed nearly 100 children in the U.S. The chief of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday that over a thousand people have died as a result, with 46 states reporting widespread H1N1 activity.
"Since the beginning of the pandemic, we've seen more than 1,000 deaths and 20,000 hospitalizations," said Dr. Thomas Frieden, head of the CDC. "We expect it to occur in waves, but we can't predict when those waves will happen."
Latest flu vaccine curveball comes from Canada JO CIAVAGLIA
Bucks County Courier TimesLocal doctors are taking a wait-and-see attitude regarding an unpublished - but already controversial - Canadian study that reportedly finds a seasonal flu shot may make people two times more likely to contract the 2009 H1N1 swine flu virus.
But some also worry such medical studies could only confuse the public more, resulting in panic and distrust in vaccine programs, thereby risking lives.
"It's a concern because we don't want to send mixed messages. We need to be unified in our approach to protect people's health," said Dr. Rob Danoff, head of family practice residency programs at Aria Health Systems, which has a Bucks County campus in Falls.
"It's very confusing. We need to await the official statement of the CDC."
The Canadian study is under peer review, a process also used in the United States to ensure that data is unbiased and properly interpreted before publication in a scientific journal. ut its early findings prompted most Canadian provincial governments to suspend or limit their annual winter vaccine programs, according to Canadian news reports.
The study is co-authored by researchers from the British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, the Ontario Agency for Health Protection and Promotion and Laval University in Quebec, according to reports.
Few people have seen the data, and some health experts are skeptical.
The World Health Organization and U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention aren't recommending that annual flu vaccinations be postponed. Public health officials in the United States, Australia and other European countries say their data doesn't show such a link between the two flu vaccines.
Canadian government officials say the new study was only one factor in their decision to suspend seasonal flu shots for people under age 65; another reason is the belief H1N1 will be the dominate flu strain in the country this winter as it was in most Southern hemisphere during their winter.
Both Canada and the United States launched seasonal flu vaccine programs earlier than usual this year to prevent overwhelming health care providers with simultaneous demands for both H1N1 and annual flu vaccines.
For every study that finds a medical intervention works, there is likely one that will contradict it, said Dr. David Damsker, director of the Bucks County Health Department.
Damsker pointed to another study recently published in the British Medical Journal that found the seasonal flu vaccine may offer some protection against H1N1 flu, though it shouldn't replace the new vaccine.
"This is why general medicine is difficult at times," he added. "You read one day that coffee causes Parkinson's disease and the next day a study says it prevents Parkinson's disease."
People should not make decisions based on a single study without thoroughly investigating other available research and speaking with medical professionals, Damsker warned.
"In Bucks County we've been preaching the same thing for the last five months. We're not trying to be led astray by one study here and there," he added. "It concerns me that every time a story comes out, people don't get all the information and make a quick decision based on the CNN ticker."
Aria's Danoff also says he will continue to recommend patients get the seasonal flu vaccine for now.
People who have already gotten their annual flu shot shouldn't worry about swine flu, he added. "For most it's a mild virus," he added. "I would not be alarmed."
The 2009 H1N1 virus is circulating and experts anticipate that 40 percent to 50 percent of the U.S. population will be infected, he noted.
What Danoff does worry about, though, is that conflicting data involving the flu vaccines could result in falling public confidence in the medical community.
CBS news reports new government guidelines designed to help keep passengers healthy will permit airport staff across the nation to screen passengers who just look like they may have the H1N1 virus. The government warns that some passengers may be asked to pass through a screening device, have their temperatures taken, answer questions about their health, and even be quarantined if someone on the flight shows symptoms of H1N1.
The following draft of an “isolation order” was discovered on the CDC’s website. It is a template for state and local officials to impose quarantines and what would effectively be martial law.
“Your illness [as determined by state and local officials] requires that you be isolated and requires further public health investigation and monitoring.”
Failure to obey will result in imprisonment without bail prior to trial and the possiblity of a two year prison term.
In other words, according to this document, officials can impose quarantine without evidence that somebody is actually infected with a virus that is now negligible at best. It may also be used to quarantine potentially millions of people suffering from any number of illnesses — or not suffering from any disease at the discretion of the state — that have nothing to do with H1N1. It is basically a carte blanche for martial law under the cover of protecting the public from a communicable disease that is demonstrably a manufactured and weaponized threat.
The C.S. Mott Children’s Hospital National Poll on Children’s Health surveyed a national sample of parents in August 2009 in order to measure their attitudes regarding H1N1 flu and intentions to vaccinate their children against H1N1 flu.
Despite national recommendations issued in July emphasizing the importance for kids of vaccination against H1N1 flu, 60 percent of parents polled refuse to have their children vaccinated. More than half of the parents who reported they will not have their children receive the H1N1 vaccine cited their number one reason to be concern over vaccine side effects.
And now Washington health officials have temporarily suspended limits on the amount of mercury allowed in the upcoming H1N1 influenza vaccine for pregnant women and children younger than 3 years old.
The move comes after Health Secretary Mary Selecky was informed that the initial batches of vaccines against the swine flu may not include enough doses that were specially packaged without thimerosal, a mercury-containing preservative.
The preservative is controversial among some people who believe that it may be linked to autism and other childhood disorders.
Selecky said the suspension is designed to ensure that pregnant women and children have access to the vaccines, even though they may contain thimerosal.
The swine flu vaccines will be available in early October, while the seasonal flu vaccines are available now.
The stuffed toy has been designed to represent a "cuddlier" version of an H1N1 microbe, complete with a pig-like nose and eyes. The 7inch novelty is the latest creation of US-based doll company GIANTmicrobes, which specialises in producing huggable viruses and pests.
The firm's catalogue include soft toy interpretations of a range of sexually-transmitted infections including gonorrhea, syphilis and chlamydia. It also sells furry representations of bed bugs, mad cow disease, E.Coli, Ebola and MRSA. The company describes its toys as "great learning tools, as well as amusing gifts for anyone with a sense of humour". Each purchase comes with an information leaflet with details of the relevant infection.
The fuzzy, stuffed toy that resembles a microbe of the H1N1 virus, commonly know as "swine flu" is sold in the CDC's gift shop, along with several other toy versions of microbes.
The toy is marketed and sold by a company called GIANTmicrobes. "Each of our GIANTmicrobes comes with an image and information about the real microbe it represents. They make great learning tools, as well as amusing gifts for anyone with a sense of humor," the company says on its website.
Top leaders and key decision-makers of major companies representing a broad range of industries will meet with distinguished scientists, public health officials, law enforcers, first responders, and other experts to discuss pandemic prevention, preparedness, response and recovery at the 1st International Swine Flu Summit.
At the summit, attendees will be able to draw on first-hand best practices to create the solid business continuity plans that their companies and organizations need in order to prepare for, respond to, and survive a pandemic. The summit draws on the success of the seven previous Bird Flu summits which featured as speakers several distinguished personalities such as Dr. David Nabarro, the United Nations Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza, Alex Thiermann of the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) and Dr. Wenqing Zhang of the WHO Epidemic and Pandemic Alert and Response. Well-known emergency responders, heads of hospitals from around the world, and hog/swine industry leaders will speak in this summit.
The conference consists of 15 "Concurrent Breakout Sessions". Of interest are sessions number 2 and 6.
Concurrent Breakout Session #2 Psychological Issues Public’s distress of exposure and safety Breakdown of public services, utilities Medical supplies shortage Unwillingness to follow government orders
Concurrent Breakout Session #6 Law Enforcement Agencies Protect police forces from falling ill & from being hurt in civil disturbances Protect the delivery of vaccines & essential goods & services. Manage a surge in crime & meet routine requests at the same time Control & diffuse social unrest & public disorder Isolate prisons & other facilities
Recommended reading: ========== A Cruel Wind: Pandemic Flu in America 1918-1920 (Paperback)
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