When the Whole World Has Drones

The precedents the U.S. has set for robotic warfare may have fearsome consequences as other countries catch up.

A slim aircraft glided through Israeli airspace, maintaining low altitude and taking a winding path to avoid detection. It flew over sensitive military installations and was beginning its approach to the Dimona nuclear reactor when it was blown from the sky by the Israel Defense Forces. The plane was pilotless, directed by agents elsewhere, and had been attempting to relay images back home. Whether they were successfully transmitted, Israelis won’t say, perhaps because they don’t know. But here’s what’s certain: It wasn’t American. It wasn’t Russian or Chinese. It was an Iranian drone, assembled in Lebanon and flown by Hezbollah.

The proliferation of drone technology has moved well beyond the control of the United States government and its closest allies. The aircraft are too easy to obtain, with barriers to entry on the production side crumbling too quickly to place limits on the spread of a technology that promises to transform warfare on a global scale. Already, more than 75 countries have remote piloted aircraft. More than 50 nations are building a total of nearly a thousand types. At its last display at a trade show in Beijing, China showed off 25 different unmanned aerial vehicles. Not toys or models, but real flying machines.

It’s a classic and common phase in the life cycle of a military innovation: An advanced country and its weapons developers create a tool, and then others learn how to make their own. But what makes this case rare, and dangerous, is the powerful combination of efficiency and lethality spreading in an environment lacking internationally accepted guidelines on legitimate use. This technology is snowballing through a global arena where the main precedent for its application is the one set by the United States; it’s a precedent Washington does not want anyone following. Read more >>

Israel Prepares for War

Israel’s IDF has called up six reserve battalions as the situation on the Syrian and Egyptian borders deteriorates. The Knesset, the Israeli parliament, has given permission to call up an additional 16 reserve battalions if necessary, the Times of Israel reported on May 2.

“This signifies that the IDF regards the Egyptian and Syrian borders as the potential source of a greater threat than in the past,” said former deputy chief of staff, Dan Harel. “The army needs a better ‘answer’ than in the past to the threat,” he added, mentioning Egypt’s loss of control over the Sinai.

The Egyptian daily al-Arabiya reports that since the end of January police located at Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula have been attacked approximately 50 times by armed Palestinian groups and what is described as a local branch of al-Qaeda.

In April, Obama, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton received intelligence that Egypt and Israel are close to war, according to DEBKAfile. More...

Anglo-Israeli "Doomsday" War Scheme Advances

February 21, 2010 (LPAC)—Sources close to the Israeli government have warned Executive Intelligence Review that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's inner cabinet is close to making a decision to launch a preventive strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. Such a decision, that would be a further step closer to a devastating regional confrontation, could come as early as Sunday, when the Israeli cabinet convenes. According to the source, a fierce debate is raging within the Israeli military, over whether Israel has the capacity to successfully strike Iran's nuclear facilities at Natanz or elsewhere. Recently former Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gen. Dan Halutz told Israeli media that the IDF does not have the ability to seriously damage the Iranian program. But, according to an Israeli source close to the inner cabinet, several options are being reviewed for just such an attack. According to the source, in recent visits to Russia, both Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman pressed Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin for permission to stage attacks against Iranian targets from sites inside Russia. Putin reportedly strongly shut the door on that option; however, similar approaches have been made to the government of Kazakhstan, according to the Israeli source. The source added that the preferred option, being promoted by factions in the IDF, is to launch attacks from Israeli submarines, equipped with Cruise missiles. The source noted that the accuracy of the Cruise missiles, launched from Israeli submarines is unreliable, and most of the Iranian sites on the Israeli target list are in urban areas.

The sources confirmed that the Obama Administration's national security team has delivered a series of strongly worded messages, warning Israel against any unilateral attacks on Iran. U.S. military leaders, as well as Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, JCS Chairman Adm. Michael Mullen, National Security Advisor Gen. Jim Jones, and Vice President Joe Biden, all recognize that a military strike against Iran is the worst-case, last option, and that we are not even close to the point of having to make that decision. It is widely believed, including among Israeli planners, that Iran has a retaliatory asymmetric capability that would involve crippling the entire Persian Gulf oil flow, blowing out the entire world economy, if attacked.

Lyndon LaRouche warned that circles in London, including former Prime Minister Tony Blair, are the real potential architects of this "doomsday" scheme. It is those in London, who are desperate over the collapse of the entire British System, who may be contemplating an Israeli breakaway ally attack on Iran, that would bring on a planetary dark age. Just recall Blair's testimony before the Chilcot Commission, in which he taunted the commissioners with the need to take military action against Iran today, just as he lied the U.S. and Britain into the 2003 invasion of Iraq. These people would have to be totally desperate, to be contemplating such a doomsday act, and I am afraid that they are, LaRouche warned.

New Mideast Alliances Forming

Wall Street Journal

TV Show Deepens Split Between Israel and Turkey

A war of words ignited by a new Turkish TV series depicting Israeli military atrocities escalated Friday, shaking what is probably Israel's strongest partnership in the Middle East.

The first episode of the series, "Separation," aired Wednesday on the public channel TRT, showed what appeared to be an Israeli soldier gunning down an unarmed Palestinian girl in a cul de sac. Shortly afterward, another soldier shoots a newborn baby.

The images sparked outrage in Israel. Labor unions said they would boycott Turkey as a vacation destination, and Israel summoned Turkey's ambassador Thursday to lodge a protest. Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said in a statement Thursday the series "would not be appropriate in an enemy country and certainly not in a state which maintains diplomatic relations with Israel."

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu responded Friday by criticizing Israel's treatment of Palestinians. He said a recent decision to exclude Israel from planned North Atlantic Treaty Organization exercises in central Turkey was made in response to public outrage in Turkey over Israel's treatment of Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip.

"While the tragedy in Gaza continues, nobody should expect us to put on military displays of this sort," Mr. Davutoglu said.

As for the TV series, Mr. Davutoglu said: "Turkey is not a country based on censorship."

Officials and analysts in both countries said the split reveals Ankara no longer needs or wants Israel the way it once did.

The two countries have long had strong diplomatic and trade relations, and Turkey has been a substantial buyer of Israeli military hardware. For years, Israeli pilots trained in Turkish airspace. As recently as August, Turkey took part in joint naval exercises with Israel.

But the ties were built in a period when Turkey felt hemmed in on all sides, analysts say. In the 1980s and 1990s, Turkey had poor relations with Iraq and shared with Israel a deep suspicion of Iran. It was also fighting a guerrilla war with Kurdish militants. In 1998, it came close to war with Syria. Turkey was also in conflict with Greece over Cyprus, while then communist Bulgaria and Armenia were historical and Cold War rivals. Ankara needed Israel's military hardware and intelligence sharing.

"In the 1990s, Turkish foreign policy was guided by security issues, and that pushed Turkey closer to Israel," says Kadri Gursel, a columnist for the centrist daily Milliyet.

But under Mr. Davutoglu and his boss, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey has worked hard to fix those problems and reintegrate into the region. This month, Turkey signed significant agreements with Armenia, Syria and Iraq.

"There is no need for this [partnership with Israel] anymore," said Huseyin Bagci, professor of International Relations at the Middle East Technical University in Ankara.

Mr. Bagci predicts that Turkey increasingly will look to Italy, France and other suppliers to buy arms, rather than Israel.

The breakdown in relations also appears personal. Mr. Erdogan walked off the stage at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January after clashing with President Shimon Peres of Israel over the conflict in Gaza. In a recent interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Erdogan was still simmering.

"If you look at Gaza, 1,500 people died, 5,000 people were wounded, infrastructure, the superstructures were all demolished. ... What happened afterwards? There was nothing," said Mr. Erdogan.

Israel and some Turkish analysts see an ideological component to the dispute, noting the Islamist roots of the ruling Justice and Development Party. "We've seen Turkey evolve and change since Erdogan's Islamic party took power," the senior Israeli official said.

Mr. Erdogan, in the interview, insisted his position wasn't driven by identification with Muslim Palestinians, but by the need for honesty and fairness.

Turkish officials insist the relationship is far from dead. "Let's make no mistake. We value a continuation of relations with Israel, but not at any cost," said ruling-party official Suat Kiniklioglu.

Write to Charles Levinson at charles.levinson@wsj.com and Marc Champion at marc.champion@wsj.com