Redemptions In The GLD Are Bullish For Gold

Recent outflows from physical gold exchange traded products (we use the SPDR Gold Shares, GLD) have been interpreted by the financial press as a sign of weakness in the demand for gold as an investment vehicle.

However, a closer look at the evidence suggests otherwise: the largest outflows in the history of the GLD (see Figure 1) started well before the large drop in the price of gold we observed on April 15th, 2013 (-9%, which represents a 1 in 11 years event). In fact, the net redemption of shares of GLD started as early as the second week of January 2013 (on a 3-month cumulative rolling basis). In this note, we will explore the theory that it was the shortage of physical gold and the ensuing arbitrage opportunity that drove market participants to redeem shares of GLD.

So why are the bullion banks that act as Authorized Participants for GLD, a group that includes JP Morgan and HSBC and others (who by-the-way were mostly bearish on gold leading to the April Crash), redeeming so many shares of GLD? Read more >>

When The Derivatives Market Crashes U.S. Taxpayers Will Be On The Hook

Recently, JP Morgan made national headlines when it announced that it was going to take a 2 billion dollar loss from derivatives trades gone bad.  Well, it turns out that JP Morgan did not tell us the whole truth.  As you will see later in this article, most analysts are estimating that the losses will eventually be far larger than 2 billion dollars. 

But no matter how bad things get for JP Morgan, it will not be allowed to fail.  JP Morgan is the largest bank in the United States, so it is essentially the "granddaddy" of the too big to fail banks. If JP Morgan gets to the point where it is about to collapse, the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve will rush in to save it.  Because of this "security blanket", banks such as JP Morgan feel free to take outrageous risks. 

Today, JP Morgan has more exposure to derivatives than anyone else in the world.  If they win, they win big.  If they lose, U.S. taxpayers will be on the hook.  Not only that, but thanks to Dodd-Frank, U.S. taxpayers are on the hook for bailing out the major derivatives clearinghouses if there is ever a major derivatives crisis.  So when the derivatives market crashes (and it will) you and I will be left holding a gigantic bill. Read more >>

JPMorgan Securities Investigated In Japan SESC Probe

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. faces a new regulatory headache, as Japan's securities watchdog is probing the company for possibly leaking insider information, a person familiar with the matter said.

J.P. Morgan was a lead underwriter for Nippon Sheet Glass Co. in 2010 when the glass maker issued new shares, and the company's stock dropped sharply in the days leading up the announcement. Japan's Securities and Exchange Surveillance Commission Tuesday announced it was seeking to fine an asset management company called Asuka Asset Management Ltd. for short-selling shares based on illegally obtained information in advance of the offering from an underwriter.

While Asuka gained Y60.5 million, or about $760,000, from the insider trading, the watchdog only recommended a fine of Y130,000, or about $1,600, because of the small amount of fees earned from its clients on the trades. Read more >>

JP Morgan Derivatives Exposure: Systemic Risk Is Everywhere

The $2 billion loss of JP Morgan in derivatives trading is signaling, once again, the enormous risks big banks take with taxpayer backing.  All U.S. banks are covered by the FDIC, and if a loss is big enough, it could threaten the financial system just as it did in 2008.  JP Morgan has $70 trillion in total derivative exposure. 

The entire world has a little more than $700 trillion in derivative exposure, and one bank has 10% of all the derivative exposure on the planet!  If JP Morgan gets into trouble, it alone could cause systemic failure.  Today, the FBI announced an investigation into the surprise $2 billion (or more) trading loss that happened last week at the bank. 

Reuters reported, “The probe was seen in some quarters as necessary, given the ongoing debate in Washington about bank regulation and reform, and one expert said it raised the level of concern around what happened.  ‘The FBI looks for evidence of crimes and goes after people who it alleges are criminals. They want to send people to jail. The SEC pursues all sorts of wrongdoing, imposes fines and is half as scary as the FBI,’ said Erik Gordon, a professor in the law and business schools at the University of Michigan.” More...

JP Morgan's $2 Billion Loss Just A Preview of Coming Derivatives Collapse

When news broke of a 2 billion dollar trading loss by JP Morgan, much of the financial world was absolutely stunned.  But the truth is that this is just the beginning.  This is just a very small preview of what is going to happen when we see the collapse of the worldwide derivatives market.

Most Americans have no idea that we are rapidly approaching a horrific derivatives crisis that is going to make 2008 look like a Sunday picnic. According to the Comptroller of the Currency, the "too big to fail" banks have exposure to derivatives that is absolutely mind blowing.

Just check out the following numbers from an official U.S. government report:


JPMorgan Chase - $70.1 Trillion
Citibank - $52.1 Trillion
Bank of America - $50.1 Trillion
Goldman Sachs - $44.2 Trillion

So a 2 billion dollar loss for JP Morgan is nothing compared to their total exposure of over 70 trillion dollars. Overall, the 9 largest U.S. banks have a total of more than 200 trillion dollars of exposure to derivatives. That is approximately 3 times the size of the entire global economy. More...