Is silver back in the bull market?

It is silver's time to shine after the precious metal climbed for seven straight sessions to notch gains not seen in nearly five years, and analysts say its winning streak is far from over.

Silver prices rallied to almost $23 a troy ounce on Thursday, after logging collective gains of 17 percent in over the past seven sessions, as a surge in gold prices and a more positive outlook for global industrial production boosted sentiment.

"It's something that you can't really ignore at the moment...There is plenty of talk about silver being in a bull market now, after the recent gains, it does look like it is in really good stead," said Stan Shamu, market strategist at trading firm IG.

Silver prices, which are closely correlated to gold, have followed steep falls in the yellow metal this year. Silver plunged 40 percent from the highs of at the start of the year to lows of $18.19 in June 28, while gold dropped 29 percent over the same period.

Demand for the precious metals, which are viewed as safe havens, waned as investors grew more confident over a more stable global economy. However, prices have recovered in recent weeks as Fed dialogue suggested tapering plans could be delayed and a flare up of violence in Egypt renewed appetite for the safe haven assets. Read more >>

Gold Shorts Cover At Fastest Pace In 13 Years

Gold shorts covered an enormous 23,518 futures contracts last week - the equivalent of 2,351,800 ounces of gold. With JPMorgan appearing to be calling everyone (here and here) to get their hands on gold to deliver, it seems our concerns over a short-squeeze are starting to solidify.

The last time shorts collapsed at this fast a rate was in the 1999/2000 period which saw a considerable 33% squeeze ramp in gold prices over the space of 3 weeks in the fall of 1999. Notably, the gold short position still remains huge compared to historical values - having fallen back only to the previous all-time record high levels (i.e. plenty of room for moar squeeze). In addition to this surge in covering, Gold ETFs saw their first inflows in 2 months. Read more >>

Gold, Silver, and Hyperinflation

English: The Obverse of the 2009 Zimbabwe $100 trillion banknote. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Most commentators in the precious metals sector still are not treating hyperinflation as a likely scenario -- as “competitive devaluation” continues to relentlessly drive all of this paper to zero. I can prove this. How? Because these commentators continue to issue (long term) “price targets” for gold and silver.

Indeed, many articles discuss “revaluing” gold at some arbitrary number as some Final Solution to fix these broken markets. Revaluing? Clearly a reminder of the definition of hyperinflation is in order.

Paper goes to zero (near-zero). Prices for hard assets go to infinity (near-infinity). Not “5,000.” Not “10,000.” Not even “100,000.” We are no longer talking about “high prices.” We are talking about Zimbabwe prices.

(Western) money-printing is increasing exponentially. Sovereign debt amongst these Western Deadbeat Debtors is increasing exponentially. Exponential curves only have one, possible ending: things blow up. The explosion of sovereign debt will (must) result in debt-default – and Debt Jubilee. The explosion of money-printing will (must) result in full-fledged hyperinflation. Read more >>

Peter Schiff on Gold and Silver: Load the Boat and Back Up the Truck

Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
For anyone who sold physical gold in the current precious metal downturn, money manager Peter Schiff says, “There’s going to be a big problem because the gold they sold on the way down isn’t going to be available on the way back up because the people who own it aren’t going to sell it at any price.

This is the time to load the boat, to back up the truck.”  Schiff is a longtime advocate of precious metals and has taken much criticism in this downturn.  Schiff answers his critics by saying, “The people who are always making fun of me every time there is a pullback are the ones that never bought gold in the first place.

Even though it’s pulled back, it’s still a lot higher than it was when they first started laughing at me for buying gold.”  Talk of a new Fed Chairman to replace Mr. Bernanke will only be bullish for the gold price.

Schiff predicts, “If it’s solely based on which Fed Chairman is the most bullish for gold and silver, I would say that would be Janet Yellen.  No matter who’s put in at the Fed, they are going to keep printing because that’s all they can do.”  Schiff warns, “They’re going to keep printing until we have a currency crisis . . . and that is the most bullish environment for gold. Read more >>

Gold Smuggling Soars In India

India, the world's largest gold consumer, meets almost all of its demand via imports, and purchases from abroad require buyers to sell the rupee to raise greenbacks. Government efforts to curb imports is meant to limit that downward pressure on the currency but has instead driven a surge in illegal imports (smuggling) of the precious metal.

The rupee has fallen more than 10% in the past couple of months and the country has sharply increased the import tax on gold to 8% (from 1% in Dec 2011) and last month India's central bank banned the use of credit to procure gold (requiring dealers to pay in advance for imports). As the WSJ reports, the measures are having an effect. Gold imports declined 11% to 859.7 tons in 2012 from 969 tons in 2011 and the total for June fell about 80% to 30 tons from 162 tons. Read more >>

Gold Surges To Its Best Day In 13 Months

With gold now up an impressive 13.1% from its post-Bernanke lows 3 weeks ago (notably more than the +8.8% in US equities), it appears the physical demand is quietly catching up to the paper supply. As we noted here, shorts covered around 11% of their positions in the last week and we suspect today's surge is yet more covering as the massively over-crowded paper-short gold position starts to unwind.

Of course, this surge is disappointing to many (including China we suspect) as the 'transitory' end of the price beatdown means we can buy less physical (and take immediate possession) now than at the June lows of $1180. With gold testing its 50DMA for the first time since February, we suspect the momo crowd will be quick to jump ship should we push on through. Read more >>

Citi: Are Gold And Silver Finding A Bottom?

"Gold advice from a bankrupt bailed out institution. Priceless."

Gold and Silver appear to be in the process of finding a bottom; however, the price action could continue to be choppy in the coming weeks. Ultimately Citi's FX Technicals group, as the following charts suggest, expect both precious metals to move much higher in the long term with the potential for Silver to be the outperformer, as was the case from 2008 to 2011.

Gold and Silver appear to be in the process of finding a bottom; however, the price action could continue to be choppy in the coming weeks. Ultimately we expect both precious metals to move much higher in the long term with the potential for Silver to be the outperformer, as was the case from 2008 to 2011.

Our original target for this Gold correction was $1,260, which was the target of the double top. This would also have resulted in the same high to low move on a percentage basis as seen in March – October 2008.

Gold has overshot that target, though only slightly (the 2008 high to low correction was 34% while this one has been 36%). The bottoming process in 2008 can still serve as a template for what might still come for Gold:

After rallying through September-October 2008, Gold made one final push down to a low 7.4% lower than the previous one

After rallying through April, Gold has made a push lower and similar move to the last one in 2008 would suggest a bottom would be put in at $1,224. The low so far has been $1,221 and consolidation seems to be taking place. Read more >>

Gold prices slide to 34-month low

Gold prices are on track to lose nearly 25% this quarter after sliding to a 34-month low Wednesday. The August contract for gold fell more than 4% to $1,227.10 an ounce early Wednesday, taking the price down to the lowest level since August 2010. Prices had been nearly $1,600 at the start of the quarter and had topped $1,900 for the first time last August.

If the sell-off continues, the second quarter will go down as one of the worst in decades.
Fears that the Federal Reserve will pull back on stimulus has been particularly bad for gold, which had been driven higher by worries that the Fed's stimulus efforts would weaken the dollar and cause inflation.

"It has been a turbulent past few weeks for the yellow metal and there seems little to suggest any let-up in the months ahead," said Ishaq Siddiqi, market strategist with ETX Capital, in a note to clients. "We could see gold prices test the $1,000 mark in the run-up to Fed tapering of stimulus." Read more >>

India raises duty on gold imports as demand surges

India has increased the duty on gold imports for the second time in six months, in an attempt to rein in surging demand for the precious metal. The finance ministry said it had raised the duty to 8% from 6%. Gold is a preferred investment option among Indian consumers and the recent drop in its price has boosted demand.

But gold imports are also one of the biggest contributors to India's current account deficit, which has been rising, prompting concerns among policymakers. A current account deficit, which is the difference between inflow and outflow of foreign currency, occurs when a country's total imports are greater than its exports.

A rising deficit impacts the country's foreign exchange reserves as well as the value of its currency. India's current account deficit hit a record high of 6.7% of its gross domestic product (GDP) in the October to December quarter. The government has been trying to bring down the deficit and improve the country's finances amid threats of a downgrade in its ratings. Read more >>

Silver Gets Slammed

The metal fell victim to heavy selling on Monday, dragging gold down with it, on U.S. dollar strength and as investors turned more cautious on precious metals as an alternate investment, said experts.

"We feel silver weakness has been a liquidation trade as investors grow increasingly wary of precious metals and traders are forced to close positions to meet margin calls elsewhere," said Stan Shamu, strategist at trading firm IG Markets.

Silver slumped over 4 percent on Monday to $21.30 an ounce, leading gold down lower by 1 percent to $1,344 an ounce. At one point silver hit a low of $20.30, down 8.8 percent from the start of trade on Monday.

Shamu is not ruling out further downside for the precious metal, noting that he sees support at $20, a key psychological barrier for investors.

Warren Gilman, chairman & CEO of investment firm CEF Holdings, agrees that silver could face further downside pressure, even below $20.

"When we have short-term volatile trends, silver acts like gold, only it's more volatile, so it's not a surprise to see it come off," he said.

According to a Citi report, if silver makes a rebound back towards the $27-28 level it will present renewed selling opportunities. Read more >>

Arizona Becomes Second State to Approve Gold and Silver as Legal Tender

Last Monday Arizona lawmakers passed a bill that makes precious metals legal tender. Arizona is the second state after Utah to allow gold coins created by the Fed and private mints to be used as currency. More than a dozen states have legislature underway to pass similar measures.

The bill comes hot off the heels of one of the largest drops in the price of gold. The metal fell 9% yesterday -- its biggest one-day drop in 30 years. Gold’s volatility may make it hard to go to a grocery store and pay for milk and eggs with bullion coins.
Related: Gold Tumbles Again: Is the Era of Gold Over?

“Yeah, I know gold is down right now,” Arizona State Senator Chester Crandell and sponsor of Senate bill 1439, tells The Daily Ticker. “People are still buying gold and using it as a commodity and I think they want to use it as actual legal tender instead of the dollar."
Senator Crandell says that the differences between gold as a commodity and gold as legal tender are pronounced. Read more >>

Gold, Silver In Asian Liquidation Mode

Spot Gold $1426 (from $1564 highs Friday)

As Asia opens to the bloodbath that occurred in precious metals on Friday in the US, it would appear that more than a few traders got the 'tap on the shoulder'. Shanghai futures are limit-down and spot gold and silver prices are plunging once again as we suspect forced margin-calls and the raising of cash (to cover extreme variation margin - or capital reserves) needed in JGB positions, as we explained here.

Liquidation is certainly the theme of the evening - investors are selling JGBs (6th day in a row of multiple-sigma moves in long-dated Japanese bonds 30Y +56bps off its post-BoJ lows at 1.60%!), selling Japanese stocks (Nikkei -128 pts, second biggest down day post-BoJ), selling US Treasuries (futures down), selling gold and silver (gold spot down over $100 from Friday's highs), and despite selling JPY early (retracing 30% of the weakness post-BoJ), JPY is practically unchanged (jerking lower only on the US futures open and Asian equity open) - it seems Mrs.Watanabe is struggling and unwinding some her excessively short JPY and long NKY positions. Read more >>

All Alterantive Currencies Must Be Crushed

Gold prices just entered a bear market. Down 21% from their mid-2011 highs. Today's drop is the largest since 2/29/12 - LTRO2 and takes the price of the barbarous relic back to July 2011 lows. Silver is also seeing its biggest down-day since LTRO2 as it tests 2012 lows. Must. Destroy. All alternative currencies. Read more >>

Silver Buying at 5 Year High

The U.S. Mint sold out of 2013 American Eagle silver coins at a time when investors bought the most metal in five years through the biggest exchange-traded product.

The mint’s sales are “temporarily” suspended and will resume on or about the week of Jan. 28 when inventory is replenished, it said yesterday in an e-mailed statement. Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust jumped 571.6 metric tons on Jan. 16, an increase now valued at $584 million. Prices may rise as much as 27 percent to $40.25 an ounce this year, a Bloomberg survey of 49 analysts, traders and investors last month showed.

Global assets in silver ETPs climbed to a record valued at $20.1 billion as central banks from the U.S. to China pledged more steps to boost economic growth. The stimulus is raising demand for precious metals as a hedge against faster inflation and currency debasement. Strengthening economies may also benefit silver, because 53 percent of it is used in everything from televisions to batteries, the Silver Institute says.The U.S. Mint sold out of 2013 American Eagle silver coins at a time when investors bought the most metal in five years through the biggest exchange-traded product. Read more >>

Tiny gold bars latest rage for jittery investors

Private investors in Switzerland, Austria and Germany are lining up to buy gold bars the size of a credit card that can easily be broken into one gram pieces and used as payment in an emergency.
Now Swiss refinery Valcambi, a unit of U.S. mining giant Newmont, wants to bring its "CombiBar" to market in the United States and build up its sales presence India - the world's largest consumer of gold where the precious metal has long served as a parallel currency.

Investors worried that inflation and financial market turmoil will wipe out the value of their cash have poured money into gold over the past decade. Prices have gained almost 500 percent since 2001 compared to a 12 percent increase in MSCI's world equity index.

Sales of gold bars and coins were worth almost $77 billion in 2011, up from just $3.5 billion in 2002, according to data from the World Gold Council.

"The rich are buying standard bars or have deposits of phsyical gold. People that have less money are buying up to 100 grams," said Michael Mesaric, CEO of Valcambi "But for many people a pure investment product is no longer enough. They want to be able to do something with the precious metal."

Mesaric said the advantage of the "CombiBar" - which has been dubbed a "chocolate bar" because pieces can be easily broken off by hand into one gram squares - is that it can be easily transported and costs less than buying 50 one gram bars. Read more >>

Germans hoarding mountains of gold

Germans are gathering vast quantities of gold - a study showed that the average German owns close to €6,000 worth of the shiny metal.

Even though Europe's largest economy has weathered the world economic crisis relatively well, Germans have still been extra jittery about their savings, a study by the Steinbeis Research Center for Financial Services in Berlin revealed.

Around 32 percent of the gold owned in Germany in the form of bars and coins was accumulated since the financial and economic crises began, the study concluded.

Commissioned by precious metal trading group Heraeus, the study also found that people with surplus cash are becoming gold-greedier. The number of Germans with a net monthly income over €4,000 who say they intend to invest in gold has doubled in the current year.

On average, every German owns around 117 grammes of gold, comprising 55 grammes of jewellery and 62 grammes of bars and coins, the study, which surveyed 2,000 people, found. Taken together with gold securities, the average German owns some €5,750 of gold. Read more >>

Sales of American Eagle gold coins soar

Demand for gold coins in the US has soared since the presidential election, as small investors fret about the lack of action to address America’s ballooning debt. The US Mint’s sales of American Eagles, one of the most popular gold coins, leapt 131 per cent in November, hitting their highest level in more than two years. The Royal Canadian Mint also had its strongest month of sales this year.

Terry Hanlon, president of metals at Dillon Gage, one of the largest bullion dealers in the country, said sales had risen sharply “within a day or two” of the election.

“You’ve got a lot of people who are very worried about the economy. With the election they saw that nothing was going to change,” he said.

While coins are a small part of the overall gold market, the jump in sales highlights gold’s role as the favoured investment of disenchanted Americans. The political gridlock in Washington and the prospect of further quantitative easing when the Federal Reserve’s “operation twist” expires at the end of this year have fuelled demand for precious metals among small investors. “They don’t believe in Uncle Sam any more,” said the head of precious metals at a large bank. Read more >>

Paris hit by wave of street muggings and grave robberies

Last week, police in the French capital arrested three people as part of a widening grave robbery investigation. There was further public outrage after two masked intruders shot dead a 52-year old precious metal worker when he tried to stop them stealing gold from his foundry in the chic central Parisian district of Le Marais.

Police said sky-high market prices for precious metals are acting as a magnet for thieves with scant regard for the living or the dead. In Pantin cemetery, in the north of Paris, dozens of bodies have recently been dug up, with gold teeth and jewellery stolen from them. Police sources said the three men seized last week were gravediggers employed by the city's cemeteries.

Last month, four other men – three from the same Pantin cemetery – were arrested and placed under investigation for aggravated theft, grave robbery and violating the integrity of a corpse.

According to a source close to the investigation, the men removed personal belongings from corpses in the freshest graves, opening them in the dead of night. Two of the men were caught wearing miner's helmets and gloves. Their boots were covered in fresh earth. One of the suspects was found to be carrying 10 gold teeth. Read more >>

Some Considerations on Precious Metals

http://readynutrition.com
If you want to expand your portfolio to include precious metals, here are some considerations: a single ounce of gold stores more value than silver. If you need portability for a large amount of wealth gold coins and bars will be your primary precious metals investment. Currently an ounce of gold is about $1550. With less than a pound of coins in your purse or backpack you can conveniently move $25,000 in value.
   
What gold offers in portability it lacks in divisibility. This is where silver comes in. You may not be able to move $25,000 of silver conveniently (weighing around 50 pounds!). But because of it’s lower value per ounce silver is an excellent mechanism of exchange for things like food, gas, clean water, or tools if the dollar hyper-inflates or crashes.

You can purchase silver in bars (100 oz, 10 oz) or coins (1 ounce, or U.S. government issued pre-1965 halves, quarters and dimes). With the smaller denomination coins like US quarters you will have portability for a small amount of cash (40 quarters is about $150 dollars worth) and you’ll have coinage that should allow you the ability to purchase just about any item someone is willing to sell.
   
Silver allows you to make modest, weekly investments of anywhere from $5 to $50 dollars and still build a store of wealth.
   
If you are investing a large sum of money into precious metals, gather details about the types of coins you are buying, especially if you’re buying gold. Acquire a coin caliper and/or testing kit to ensure you’re getting what is being advertised. More...

Gold May Top $6,000, Silver $600: Asset Manager

Image via WikipediaGold prices may reach $6,200 per ounce in a bull run which will “end all major bull markets,” Urs Gmuer, asset manager at Dolefin, a Swiss investment advice firm, told CNBC.

Gmuer’s prediction is based on analysis of the last major gold boom of the 1970s, during which gold prices rose from $35 per ounce to $850 per ounce. Gmuer said that in the current bull run, prices would be pushed upwards by a protracted period of global economic difficulty—potentially lasting years—during which investors would continue to search for so-called safe havens.

“Gold prices have risen over the last few years, as the macroeconomic picture has become worse. The deterioration of the fundamental situation has now gone even further.

“Purchases by investors of gold will be based on fears of systemic risk or banking crashes,” Gmuer said. More...