Warren Buffett is one of America’s biggest bailout beneficiaries

Warren Buffett is one of America’s biggest bailout beneficiaries, having profited hugely from buying into firms whose assets were subsequently bailed out. Shortly after the crisis began in 2008, Warren Buffett loaned money to, and bought options from, Goldman Sachs, seemingly with the knowledge the bailout of AIG — a counterparty to which Goldman had massive, massive exposure — would take place.

Dimon as Treasury Secretary would intend more of the same. Dimon and Buffett and others like them believe in having their cake and eating it. They seem to believe that the U.S. taxpayer should provide a liquidity lifeline to their fragile and risky too-big-to-fail businesses, but without at the same time demanding any regulatory oversight to prevent too-big-to-fail banks from acting irresponsibly. Read more >>

Tarp Repayments a Farce - Banks Pay Back TARP Funds by Borrowing from Treasury

Image via WikipediaMost of the big banks have repaid the government funds they received under the Capital Purchase Program (CPP), the pillar of TARP under which Treasury bought preferred shares in the nation's banks. Enough so that, combined with dividends and sales of warrants, Treasury has declared that taxpayers have earned a profit on the CPP. Thus far, $245 billion has gone out, and $255 billion in repayments, interest and warrants has come back, yielding a profit to taxpayers of $10 billion. And there's several billion more where that came from.

Many of the small banks that took relatively small chunks of capital have been slower to exit. Last week, however, there was a mini stampede. The transactions are reported here. Eight banks paid back their funds on July 14. They were:

Eagle Bancorp of Bethesda, MD: $23.235 million
First California Financial, Westlake Village, CA: $25 million
Cache Valley Bank, Logan, UT: $4.77 million, plus $263,000 to buy back preferred shares granted to Treasury in lieu of warrants
Security Business Bancorp, San Diego, CA: $5.8 million, plus $290,000 to buy back preferred shares granted to Treasury in lieu of warrants
BOH Holdings of Houston, Houston, TX: $10 million, plus $500,000 to buy back preferred shares granted to Treasury in lieu of warrants
BancIndependent, Sheffield, AL: $21.1 million, plus $1.055 million to buy back preferred shares granted to Treasury in lieu of warrants
York Traditions Bank, York, PA: $4.871 million, plus $244,000 to buy back preferred shares granted to Treasury in lieu of warrants
Centric Financial, Harrisburg, PA: $6.056 million, plus $182,000 to buy back preferred shares granted to Treasury in lieu of warrants

That adds up to a total of $103.3 million.

But sometimes there's less than meets the eye. Generally, banks that repaid CPP funds did so with cash raised from earnings, or by raising new outside capital. In finance and banking you always have to read the fine print. And if you go back to the report, you'll notice that the fine print accompanying the entries for each of the above exits makes reference either to Footnote 49 or Footnote 50. Footnote 49 reads: "Repayment pursuant to Title VII, Section 7001(g) of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 using proceeds received in connection with the institution's participation in the Small Business Lending Fund." Footnote 50 reads: "Repayment pursuant to Title VII, Section 7001(g) of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 — part of the repayment amount obtained from proceeds received in connection with the institution's participation in the Small Business Lending Fund."

All of which is to say that these banks repaid cash owed to a program run by the Treasury Department by. . . borrowing from another program run by the Treasury Department. More...

The Fed bailed out Bear Stearns without authorization from Congress

Robert Reich
The Fed has finally came clean. It now admits it bailed out Bear Stearns – taking on tens of billions of dollars of the bank’s bad loans – in order to smooth Bear Stearns’ takeover by JPMorgan Chase. The secret Fed bailout came months before Congress authorized the government to spend up to $700 billion of taxpayer dollars bailing out the banks, even months before Lehman Brothers collapsed. The Fed also took on billions of dollars worth of AIG securities, also before the official government-sanctioned bailout.

The losses from those deals still total tens of billions, and taxpayers are ultimately on the hook. But the public never knew. There was no congressional oversight. It was all done behind closed doors. And the New York Fed – then run by Tim Geithner – was very much in the center of the action.

This raises three issues.

First, only Congress is supposed to risk taxpayer dollars. The Fed is not part of the legislative branch. Its secret deals, announced almost two years after they were done, violate the democratic process, if not the Constitution itself. Thomas Jefferson put a stop to Alexander Hamilton’s idea of a powerful central bank out of fear it would be unaccountable to the public. The Fed has just proven Jefferson’s point.

Second, if the Fed can secretly bail out big banks, the problem of “moral hazard” – bankers taking irresponsible risks because they know they’ll be rescued – is far greater than anyone assumed after Congress and the Bush and Obama administrations bailed out the banks. Big banks will always be too big to fail because they know the Fed will secretly back them up if they get into trouble, even if Congress won’t do it openly.

Third, the announcement throws a monkey wrench into the financial reform bill now on Capitol Hill, which gives the Fed additional authority by, for example, creating a consumer protection bureau inside it. Only yesterday, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) blasted the Dodd bill for expanding the Fed’s authority “even as it remains shrouded in secrecy.”

The Fed has a big problem. It acts in secret. That makes it an odd duck in a democracy. As long as it’s merely setting interest rates, its secrecy and political independence can be justified. But once it departs from that role and begins putting billions of dollars of taxpayer money at risk — choosing winners and losers in the capitalist system — its legitimacy is questionable.

That it chose to reveal the truth about its activities during a week when Congress is out of town, when much of official Washington and the Washington media have gone on vacation, and only after several federal courts have held that the Fed must release documents related to its bailout of Bear Stearns, suggests it would rather remain secret than become transparent.

Much of what Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner did (when Geithner was at the New York Fed) in 2008 was presumably necessary. But the public has no way of knowing. The public doesn’t even know who else the Fed has bailed out, or what entities it will bail out in the future. All we know is the Fed secretly bailed out Bear Stearns and AIG and thereby subjected taxpayers to risks that remain even today, without informing the public. That’s not a record on which to build public trust.

Dick Fuld made almost half a billion dollars from fraud

Image via Wikipedia

The Automatic Earth
Lehman's CEO Dick Fuld made almost half a billion dollars off the fraud he oversaw, states Dylan Ratigan. Fuld has been walking around free, enjoying his loot, for 18 months, since Lehman collapsed. And that's not because nobody among the US market regulators knew. You know why it is? It's because they DID know. It’s because the SEC and the NY Fed under Geithner and the Treasury under Paulson and the Fed under Greenspan and Bernanke DID know, that Dick Fuld gets to spend his part of the loot. It’s because part of the loot went to all of the above, because they’re all guilty as sin. Oh wait, what does that say about Obama? That he's guilty too, or only that he's not all that savvy? And look in the mirror, what does it say about you?

Yves Smith says Tim Geithner needs to be fired for his involvement in the insane saga of the Lehman demise. Well, that's a nice first reaction, but when you dig a bit, he should maybe also have been fired for his part in the AIG scam. Or Bear Stearns for that matter, which he had the duty to oversee as head of the New York Fed. Tim Geithner will never be brought to justice precisely because Tim Geithner himself should be brought before a jury of his peers, and his peers are as guilty as he is.

Firing Geithner would be letting him off easy. He should be put on temporary leave pending an independent investigation. That's how politics works in other countries, so why not in the US? The investigation should be rapid and thorough, and led by someone who can prove they’re not associated with Wall Street in any given way. Say, Elizabeth Warren or Bill Black. And then there should be a temp replacement as Treasury Secretary, say, let's see, Elizabeth Warren or Bill Black. Or you could give either post to Harry Markopolos. Am I leaving out anyone? There's really only a few good "men", ain't there? It’s much easier to come up with a lost of names of people who should never ever be appointed to these posts than it is to name those who might.

But yeah, I know, I'm only dreaming. This present bag of Al Capones, except for a few carefully selected scapegoats (Dick Fuld: Tar and Feathers!), will never be brought to justice, because Eliott Ness wouldn't stand a chance in today's America, or London, Paris, or Tokyo. We just would like to believe he would, so much so that that very belief is actually aiding and abetting both the crimes and perpetrators. We don’t want real life, we want the hologram. We tell ourselves: "but there's nothing I can do about it", and we use that statement as an excuse to let people like Dick Fuld and Tim Geithner walk all over our children's graves.

There's times when I think that perhaps the best thing that could happen to us is for our lives and dreams to be thrown off a cliff and see what survives the landing, we can't seem to wake up in any other way. You know, the sort of thing that sounds good in theory. But I can clearly see the suffering that would come with it, and I don’t like it. Not one bit. Whatever we do, though, we must make sure of one thing. That we find back our moral fiber, and act on it. More...

Behind closed doors, AIG employees have contempt for taxpayers

Transcript reveals anger of AIG employees toward politicians, public
Brady Dennis
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, March 4, 2010; A16

During the national furor that erupted last year after American International Group paid more than $165 million in bonuses, the voices of those vilified for receiving the payments remained silent, at least in public.

But behind closed doors, employees at AIG's Financial Products division -- the very unit whose trading had hastened the insurance giant's collapse -- were defiant, saying they were merely getting what they were due, recoiling at public accusations that they were behind their capitalizing on the company's massive taxpayer bailout.

"I will stand behind every action I have taken in this company from Day One," one employee said, according to a newly obtained transcript of a conference call the division's head held last March with some of his staff.

But when another employee asked whether the staff would be getting a second round of bonuses promised for March 2010, his colleagues burst into laughter, apparently considering this a preposterous notion amid the public outrage.

Yet they did see that money, at least most of it. Last month, under a deal in which employees agreed to take a cut in their upcoming retention bonuses in return for an accelerated payment, AIG paid out about $100 million to employees at the firm. AIG is scheduled to pay the last of the bonuses this month.

Even so, neither time nor money has softened the employees' feelings of wrongful persecution and their anger over becoming the subjects of scorn and ridicule. Seldom was that sense of victimhood more clear or more visceral than in the conference call of March 23, 2009.

Gerry Pasciucco, who had been hired to wind down Financial Products after the AIG bailout, was in Wilton, Conn., broadcasting his image and his voice to shaken, frustrated and furious employees in London, Paris and Hong Kong. Pasciucco quickly encountered a buzz saw of complaints over demands that they forgo the bonuses they were due. Emotions were running especially high in the London boardroom, where scores of staffers had gathered around a large table.

"I think it violates everything I believe in, and it's un-American," one employee said that day, according to the transcript of the call.

"This country is supposed to stand on due process," said another. The names of the staff members were redacted from the transcript obtained by The Washington Post.
'Missing the point'

The employees said that the corporate leaders who had driven the firm into the ground were already gone from the company. Those who had remained behind to help clean up the mess and repay the taxpayer bailout were due their compensation, they told Pasciucco.

"You made a commitment to us, and we made a commitment to you. And for anybody to look beyond that, as the politics and the media are at the moment, is missing the point," said an employee. "You can't expect us to just roll over and ignore that commitment because there is a bunch of immoral bigots that intend us to do something different. It's not going to happen."

Another was even more irate, lashing out at the public for scapegoating AIG employees. "To be honest with you, I really hope it blows up. I think the U.S. taxpayer deserves to lose a trillion dollars over this thing for the way they have behaved."

And then he turned on politicians who had joined the anti-AIG posse. "They only care about the next election, just like we only care about the next bonus. Well, none of them cares about the country, none of us cares about the institution," he said, adding: "They really don't care, and I really don't care. And frankly, if a trillion dollars gets lost, fine."

The AIG retention bonuses have rankled many in the public because the company has received a federal rescue package of about $180 billion in loans, stock investments and other commitments from the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department. Closing down AIG Financial Products' trading portfolio has been vital to stemming further losses and repaying the public money.

As the employees were confronting Pasciucco last spring, lawmakers in Washington were contemplating a 90 percent tax on the bonus payments. AIG's chief executive, Edward M. Liddy, had been berated on Capitol Hill. Employees had received anonymous threats, some violent.
'Is this blackmail?'

Pasciucco wanted to assuage their angst that day. But he also had another goal: persuading them to return 50 percent of the bonus money in hopes that New York Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo would not make their names public, as he was threatening. Employees fumed, accusing Cuomo of "blackmail" and "extortion." They complained that they were being forced to pay "protection money."

"Is this blackmail? To a certain extent, it is," Pasciucco told employees that morning. "If the only reason you would give money back is because you are afraid for your family and you are afraid for your safety, then it is."

He agreed that the manner in which some Washington officials had responded to the furor was despicable. "I think it's distasteful. It's unfair. It's unjust. I agree with you, it's not American. It is McCarthy-ite. . . . It will be viewed as a horribly dark period."

Still, he tried to offer a dose of realism. The retention payments might have been guaranteed by contract, he said, but Financial Products had made bad bets that cost taxpayers billions of dollars. Although the decision to return part of their money was voluntary, he said, such a pledge might help employees defuse some of the public anger.

"I am not laying this out that it's the right, moral thing to do, but I am telling you that you are naive if you think that you can ignore the political reality around this as you make your decision," he said, adding: "I am just going to caution you that if you are not lionized and . . . garlands of roses are not put around your shoulders, you shouldn't be surprised."

Major U.S. banks report gigantic profits for 2009

BRIAN WILLIAMS
Large U.S. banks reported huge profits for last year, the product of steps taken by Washington to bail them out of the worldwide financial crisis. Proposals by the Barack Obama administration for so-called bank reform and regulation don’t alter the capitalist government’s approach toward these giant financial institutions, which they consider “too big to fail.”

At the same time, millions of working people—considered by Washington not “too big to fail”—face rising long-term unemployment.

Goldman Sachs Group reported a record-high profit of $4.95 billion for the fourth quarter of 2009 and $13.4 billion for the entire year. JPMorgan Chase, the nation’s second-largest bank, said it more than quadrupled that quarter’s profit to $2.38 billion, making $11.7 billion in 2009. Wells Fargo made $2.8 billion in the fourth quarter, even while repaying $25 billion to the U.S. Treasury on its bailout loan.

The massive profits come as the Obama administration continues to serve these banks in numerous ways. Besides funds given to them through the Troubled Asset Relief Program beginning in late 2008, banks can borrow money at close to zero percent interest from the Federal Reserve. They then use these funds to buy Treasury securities yielding 3 percent interest instead of making what they consider uncertain loans to consumers and businesses.

To take advantage of these government policies, investment banks were allowed “to redefine themselves as ‘commercial banks,’ with special access” to Federal Reserve funds, noted the Weekly Standard.

Transferring ‘toxic assets’
“Toxic assets,” for the most part worthless mortgage-backed securities, are being transferred from the banks’ books to the government ledger. The Federal Reserve “holds more than $900 billion in mortgage-backed securities,” reported Crain’s New York Business, with plans to boost this to $1.25 trillion through the end of March.

With Paul Volcker, former chair of the Federal Reserve Board, at his side, Obama announced January 21 what he claimed would be “common-sense” reforms of the banking system. For months Volcker had been shuffled to the background by the White House in favor of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and others more closely identified with big investment houses. Volcker calls for prohibiting commercial banks from owning or investing in hedge funds and limiting the use of federally insured deposit funds for “speculative” and “risky” investments, such as mortgage-backed securities.

Commercial banks, however, could continue to engage in such trading as long as “they could show regulators that they are doing it for their clients, not their own proprietary accounts,” reported MarketWatch Web site.

Volcker has been calling for reinstating the Glass-Steagall Act, in hopes that legally separating commercial and investment banks will halt the debt-driven frenzy inherent to the workings of capitalism. The U.S. rulers were forced to impose Glass-Steagall in 1933 in response to the wave of bank failures in the early years of the Great Depression. It was repealed under the William Clinton administration in 1999.

In a reflection of how little confidence the capitalists have that they have solved the financial crisis, doubts are being raised in Congress about ratifying a second term for Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, one of the leading proponents of the government’s use of hundreds of billions of dollars to bail out giant banks and the American International Group insurance company. His term expires January 31. Many in capitalist circles, however, are signaling that changing the head of the Federal Reserve could trigger greater financial calamity. “A prolonged delay would unsettle markets; a rejection could be even worse,” noted the Wall Street Journal.

Meanwhile, the number of workers facing long-term unemployment continues to rise. In December 6.1 million people had been without a job for more than six months, according to the Labor Department. The official unemployment rate in December was 10 percent, 15.3 million workers. But this does not count the 2.5 million persons the government claims are “marginally attached” to the labor force.

BLS Non-Farm Payroll Survey: smoke, mirrors, bias and outright falsehoods

Ilargi at The Automatic Earth
Drowning by the numbers
No doubt there are people who see this week's BLS Non-Farm Payroll survey as "not good, but not all that bad either". They can point for instance to the fact that the 85,000 jobs lost according to the report is much better than the 800,000 jobs lost back in March 2009.

The Wall Street Journal puts it like this: ”Even though the payroll number was worse than expected, the data reflects an improvement in the jobs market.”.

But unfortunately, this is all smoke, mirrors, bias and outright falsehood. The Household part of the monthly BLS survey mentions 465,000 lost jobs. 647,000 full time jobs left the building. But that's not even remotely where the true problem lies.

The reason why unemployment, as per the Household survey, stayed at 10% and "only" 85,000 jobs are reported MIA in the Payroll survey can be found in the labor force numbers. From November to December 2009, the "persons not in the labor force" category went up by 843,000 (over 1 million when not seasonally adjusted), and now stands at 83,865,000. The vast majority of those singing off, i.e. not actively looking for work, are people who can't see any jobs anywhere in their environment. The worse the economy gets, the fewer people are counted as unemployed. It’s a lovely invention, but it's also am awfully perverted one.

That is also true for seasonal adjustments in other categories. It’s estimated that that actual initial claims numbers may be double what's reported, simply because the models used are too rigid to take into account present economic conditions. A similar idea is true for continuing claims. Michael Widner at Stifel, Nicolaus says:

”We could conceivably have nearly 11 million people collecting unemployment and see the data reported as a 3.something million figure."

U6 unemployment is up. Average and median unemployment duration is up on all counts. The amount of people without a job for more than half a year is soaring, and these people now form 40% (6.1 million) of the total unemployed. The employment to population ratio fell to 58.2%, the lowest in at least 27 years. The national payroll level went from 130.8 million in 2000 to 130.9 million today. 100,000 jobs added for the 13 million people who were added to the "available" labor pool. In other words, 13 million unemployed were added.

Extended benefits and Emergency Unemployment Compensation, the two programs set up for the long-time jobless, are bursting through their seams. A slight decrease in initial and continuing jobless claims may seem to indicate something positive, but the reality is that people don't leave these programs because they find jobs, but because they've exhausted their benefits and are forced into extended and emergency programs. There are strong suggestions that the latter grew by some 43% in just the past month.

And though we've seen no mention of it this week, we haven't forgotten that the BLS "owes" us the 824,000 jobs they "forgot" to count till March 2009.

No matter where you stand, no matter what you see the economy doing in 2010, it should be clear to everyone who can read by now that reporting on unemployment in the US is a god-forsaken mess, strongly biased towards what pleases Washington, i.e. numbers much lower than the real ones. That said, while many citizens may still be fooled by the official data, you can bet that Washington knows perfectly well what the real numbers are, and many hours of backroom meetings are dedicated to the topic. How much of that reflects genuine care for constituencies, and how much mere worry about election numbers, we’ll leave up to you to ponder.

The same mentality that leads to the severely distorted jobs numbers speaks loudly from the AIG files, that increasingly question Tim Geithner role in the $100+ billion handed to Goldman Sachs et al as 100% compensation for lost credit default swaps wagers. And that, predictably, leads to calls for the resignation of Geithner.

But we've seen similar calls for Ben Bernanke and Larry Summers to resign. And they're still there. Moreover, what difference would it make to remove one of them and leave the others be where they are? If you don't clean up for real, why bother? It becomes just another silly game that way, doesn't it?

Reminds me of a man named Travis Bickle, who said some 35 years ago:

"All the animals come out at night - whores, skunk pussies, buggers, queens, fairies, dopers, junkies, sick, venal. Someday a real rain will come and wash all this scum off the streets."

Average life span of greatest civilizations is 200 years

Image by Argenberg via Flickr

Paul B. Farrell
MarketWatch
Like Diamond, Faber also sees the historical imperative: "Every successful society" grows "out of some kind of challenge." Today, the "life cycle" of capitalism is on the decline.

He asks himself: "How are you so sure about this final collapse?" The answer: "Of all the questions I have about the future, this is the easiest one to answer. Once a society becomes successful it becomes arrogant, righteous, overconfident, corrupt, and decadent ... overspends ... costly wars ... wealth inequity and social tensions increase; and society enters a secular decline." Success makes us our own worst enemy.

Quoting 18th century Scottish historian Alexander Fraser Tytler: "The average life span of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years" progressing from "bondage to spiritual faith ... to great courage ... to liberty ... to abundance ... to selfishness ... to complacency ... to apathy ... to dependence and ... back into bondage!"

Where is America in the cycle? "It is most unlikely that Western societies, and especially the U.S., will be an exception to this typical 'society cycle.' ... The U.S. is somewhere between the phase where it moves 'from complacency to apathy' and 'from apathy to dependence.'"

In short, America is a grumpy old man with hardening of the arteries. Our capitalism is near the tipping point, unprepared for a catastrophe, set up for collapse and rapid decline.

15 more clues capitalism lost its soul ... is a disaster waiting to happen

Much more evidence litters the battlefield:

1. Wall Street wealth now calls the shots in Congress, the White House

2. America's top 1% own more than 90% of America's wealth

3. The average worker's income has declined in three decades while CEO compensation exploded over ten times

4. The Fed is now the 'fourth branch of government' operating autonomously, secretly printing money at will

5. Since Goldman and Morgan became bank holding companies, all banks are back gambling with taxpayer bailout money plus retail customer deposits

6. Bill Gross warns of a "new normal" with slow growth, low earnings and stock prices

7. While the White House's chief economist retorts with hype of a recovery unimpeded by the "new normal"

8. Wall Street's high-frequency junkies make billions trading zombie stocks like AIG, FNMA, FMAC that have no fundamental value beyond a Treasury guarantee

9. 401(k)s have lost 26.7% of their value in the past decade

10. Oil and energy costs will skyrocket

11. Foreign nations and sovereign funds have started dumping dollars, signaling the end of the dollar as the world's reserve currency

12. In two years federal debt exploded from $11.2 to $23.7 trillion

13. New financial reforms will do little to prevent the next meltdown

14. The "forever war" between Western and Islamic fundamentalists will widen

15. As will environmental threats and unfunded entitlements

"America Capitalism" is a "Lost Soul" ... we've lost our moral compass ... the coming collapse is the end of an "inevitable" historical cycle stalking all great empires to their graves. Downsize your lifestyle expectations, trust no one, not even media.

Faber is uncertain about timing, we are not. There is a high probability of a crisis and collapse by 2012. The "Great Depression 2" is dead ahead. Unfortunately, there's absolutely nothing you can do to hide from this unfolding reality or prevent the rush of the historical imperative.

"American peasants have got to be the stupidest people in the world today"

Max: "It's not froth, it's fraud. This is an incredible case of accounting fraud and the American peasants have got to be the stupidest people in the world today: they don't mind becoming peasants, they don't mind living like peasants, and if that's the case, we should do nothing to stop them from sliding into a peasant class."

Barney Frank has proposed legislation on financial derivatives that essentially exempts what are called over-the-counter derivatives from most regulation, and it is over-the-counter derivatives that have been a major cause of this crisis. So that’s utterly insane. There’s no conceivable justification for it. And he stacked the hearing. There were nine witnesses; eight of them were from the industry and, of course, testified that they were vital to the world. The ninth witness was the only person who was in the least bit skeptical, and he was promptly gaveled down, unlike the others, by the chair. So it’s not only a farce; they’re willing to have us see that it’s a farce. They are so little afraid of public opinion and outrage that they’re not even taking steps to cover up the cover-up. - William Black, Former bank regulator at the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation.

Systemic Failure Dead Ahead

Image via Wikipedia

Jim Willie
Debate stirs on whether the financial structure of the USEconomy is broken irreparably. Debate stirs on whether actions taken in the last year or two have put the nation on a path that can even achieve stability, let alone recovery. Debate stirs on whether a pernicious and not so secret syndicate has taken control of the USGovt financial ministries, let alone be removed. Debate stirs on whether lack of US Federal Reserve audits and disclosure of their accounting is integral to sustaining the syndicate control as well as its probable egregious fraud. Debate stirs whether the nationalizations have actually enabled adoption of wrecked assets, have concealed executive ransacking, and have buried massive counterfeit of bonds. Debate stirs whether the mountainous federal deficits, the nationalizations of essentially Black Holes, and the endless war spending make deficit reduction a distant dream. Debate stirs on whether the gargantuan accumulation of USFed reserves will spill over to produce widespread price inflation. Debate stirs on why after causing the foundation failure of the US financial structure from Wall Street and the USFed offices, these institutions not only remain in power but demand greater power.

It is my contention that the US financial structures broke without any remote potential for repair and revival in the summer of 2007. The symptoms became obvious in the summer of 2008 to the slower observers with visible shock waves bathed in crisis. The reactions from shock waves have come since the autumn months of 2008. The system has broken, but the syndicate in control wishes to keep the music going, keep the machinery turning, keep the money flowing, so that they can continue the massive rackets, bury the frauds & counterfeit, cover their tracks, process the bad paper into USGovt coffers, continue to corner the printing press operations, continue to con the USCongress into granting more funds for Goldman Sachs to dictate dispensation secretly, and to continue the endless war whose rivers of blood are matched only by rivers of redirected private contractor fraudulent payments. Nobody seeks justice and prosecution for over $1 trillion in mortgage bond fraud. Nobody seeks to remove Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan from control posts at the USDept Treasury and USFed respectively. Nobody seeks even to locate the missing $50 billion from the Iraq Reconstruction Fund, or to announce the known location of the stolen $100 billion from the Madoff Ponzi Scheme (it aint $50B and they know its exact hiding place). Foreigners have been very busy since the autumn 2008, as they dismantle the levers, knock down the pillars, block the escape routes, yank the collateral from the paper marketplaces, and otherwise thwart the US-UK schemes.

To claim that the system can be put on proper stable footing is lunatic. To expect that the nation can be recalibrated so as to return to the Good Ole Days of US global dominance and leadership is lunatic. To urge that the economic signposts, megaphones, and billboards be once again guided by policies best described as Bubbly Economic Mythology is lunatic. Yet delusional Americans actually believe the dominant ship at sea can lead as flagship, when it has taken on more water than the Titanic. Since the autumn months of 2008, marred by the Lehman Brothers failure, marred by the Fannie Mae adoption, marred by the AIG adoption, punctuated by a shameful 0% interest rate policy (ZIRP) and a green light for limitless money creation (QE), the United States has lost any semblance of leadership. Instead, its leadership has earned scorn, criticism, and disrespect. The last people on the globe to comprehend the American condition of failure, corruption, and military aggression seem to be the Americans themselves, who live within the USDome of Perception. They suffer from perhaps the worst education levels in the industrialized world, coupled with a co-opted national news media network, clouded by the grandest drugstore medication in history. Debate stirs on whether the US actually controls its own news media. The US does not cover the global Paradigm Shift underway that will change its landscape radically.

The clearest conclusions center on almost nothing put on a sustainable viable course for the nation. Amplification and widened breadth of all that failed cannot serve as the core for revival or recovery, let alone stability. Yet such policies seem the only ones our hapless bank leaders are able to execute. It is a dog returning to gobble his vomit. It is akin to managers urging their worst workers to intensify their efforts, and to join the ranks of management. These Keynesians cannot admit that the central bank franchise model has failed, not to be resurrected. In my view, the debates, the foundations, and the reactions scream two major messages. 1) The system is out of control, with the drivers ramming down the accelerator for even more of everything that failed, for a locomotive within a monetary system based upon illegitimate money. 2) The USGovt finances are heading toward a recognized failure, identified by both a banking system bankrupt seizure and a USTreasury default. The nation cannot come to grips with the bold stark notion that foreigners control our fate, from their revolt against the USDollar as a global reserve currency, from their revolt in supplying additional credit to the USGovt and USEconomy. The reaction so far to crisis has been to rely more heavily upon the Printing Pre$, to monetize the debts, and to conceal such operations, all while permitting syndicates to operate with impunity. The revolving doors spin freely that fill job posts at the USDept Treasury, Wall Street firms, USGovt regulatory bodies, and key foundations, warranting charges of incest at best and corruption at worst. Things are out of control!

In fact, my forecast is for systemic failure. Its primary elements will be a failed US banking system (as in seizure) and a USTreasury Bond default (as in coerced restructure). Again, martial law and declaration of economic emergency will be the final solution. The prison camps will become debtor prisons and warehouses for illegals, maybe a processing plant for those who refuse virus vaccination. They are already constructed with over 200 ready for occupancy. Those in denial might become residents. They could also feature some dissidents, along with some writer analysts. Two years ago, my analysis regularly mentioned martial law and imposed order to handle the chaos from a disintegrated economy and insolvent dysfunctional banking system. Here we are in the present, when such forecasts do not sound so outrageous anymore. The Jackass has featured a string of seemingly outrageous forecasts that have come true. The US system is credit dependent, and credit will soon be cut off, in the next chapter of isolation. The Printing Pre$ is a temporary solution, en route to a failed state. The US leaders and citizens do not learn from history. They defy history amidst delusions of omnipotent power. See the Weimar Republic, which has gone global! Even Gore Vidal expects recognition of the Untied States having adopted communism. Even the World Bank led by yet another Goldman Sachs pupil warns the Untied States not to assume the USDollar will remain the unchallenged global reserve currency.

ABSENT A STRONG FOUNDATION

Widespread Insolvency is a major theme of the broken condition. The banks have assets and income grossly below their debts and liabilities. They must rely upon phony FASB accounting, which was the basis of the stock recovery beginning in April. They must bring fresh capital, lost as fast as it arrives. They now tell the public what their assets are worth, backwards to any market concept. The households are suffering from mortgage obligations even as housing prices continue to slide lower. With almost one third of American homeowners who hold mortgages operating with an underwater status, whereby their home loans exceed the home value, the army of consumers is more than hampered. Unlike the bankers, the households of America cannot just pound the table, engineer an absurd Stress Test, and declare they are solvent enough for equity extensions. The households line up for defaults and foreclosures instead. The smart ones demand that the bankers prove clear certified title of their property. See the Kansas MERS case that might serve as precedent to jam the gears of the bankers intending to seize homes in foreclosure. The bankers cannot prove they hold clear title. Such is the vagary of mortgage bond fraud, as it seeps to the surface.

The USGovt finances are in shambles, with $1800 billion in fiscal 2009 deficits, and easily $1300 billion to come in the next year. Take away the Printing Pre$ from the desperate delinquent devils running the USGovt finance ministries, and national debt default would take place within 60 days. The nation does not even contemplate budget surplus, but rather justifies yawning deficits and lies using lunatic forecasts. The industrial base is also largely depleted. The Chinese Most Favored Nation granted in 1999 set the stage for shipment of much of the US factories to China. In the process, the USEconomy replaced income with debt, all in the name of ‘Low Cost Solutions’ moronically. Corporate leaders in America reacted to heavy burdens of government regulations and higher taxes, even to rugged labor unions. Maybe their relocation decisions constituted betrayal, or maybe just reaction to onerous conditions that evolved over decades.

The Albatross of falling property prices, both residential and commercial, continues to hang around the neck of the USEconomy. The full impact of the commercial property decline has yet to be felt, more in delayed reaction. A queer factor comes into play with commercial mortgages and loans. Even if the majority of payments are current, even if most tenants pay rent on time, the loans tend not to be viable for refinance and rollover. The Loan-to-Value ratios are all horrible after a broad 30% to 40% property price decline. Banks require more equity. On the residential side, the Prime Option ARMortgages are lined up for the kill. It seems that payment of less than the required interest was not a good idea after all. It seems that leaving homeowners the option to build their loan balance when property prices fell was not a good idea after all. Now they face 100% to 200% monthly loan payment increases, all in the fine print unread years back. So liquidations and foreclosures will continue to come, complete with outsized bank losses. The Perpetuation of Loss is ensured by continued property foreclosures and liquidation. Despite all talk, the process continues. Despite the pain, the statistics continue to be mangled with a purposeful motive.

The Accounting Fraud for bank balance sheets and stock valuation runs like a cancerous streak throughout the financial sector. The best way to cover up fraud is with more fraud. The best way to cover up accounting chicanery is to have the USCongress bless it as legal, vital, and essential. Once the stock market rose for consecutive months, talk of phony accounting rules is forgotten, SINCE IT SUCCEEDED, even served as proof of recovery. What nonsense! A moral depravity has permeated not just the financial sector, but the public as well. They cry out from the corners laden with pain, but without specific targets. The end of the FASB relaxed rules is scheduled for January 1st. Let’s see if a compromised USCongress and corrupt Wall Street demand its extension. They obviously will. Furthermore, both Basel 2 and Basel 3 guidelines are ignored, since from outsiders. Ignore them at one’s own peril, as they gather as Enemies at the Gate among the USGovt creditors. Theirs might turn into an angry lynch mob. Foreign creditors are the #1 adversary to all things American right here, right now.

SUSTAINING FORCES

Numerous hidden forces sustain the current breakdown and hamper anything remotely resembling a recovery. The only thing in recovery is the banter, billboards, and propaganda. In fact, most praise of success comes from people who praise their own efforts, like USFed Chairman Bernhacky. His predecessor was also very accomplished at praising his own craft and alchemy. Sir Alan Greenspasm left the national banking system hanging over the precipice, from where it fell in a short time after passage of the mantle at his retirement. He believed his housing bubble saved America from disaster. He believed that credit derivatives offloaded risk. Little did he realize that the next disaster is always much greater than the saved previous one, when amplified credit and monetary ease are the solutions relied upon, all pure heresy. He lives now in London, and spends much time in Switzerland. These nations paid his secretive other paychecks. These nations are where his loyalty and all directives came from in my opinion. Many hidden forces will work to undermine the current efforts to instill a recovery to the USEconomy and a resuscitation of the US banking system. Bernhacky will soon realize that reliance upon the same toxin and formaldehyde to course through the increasingly cancerous bodies will produce even worse problems during the next crisis phase. It comes.

Numerous sustaining forces will contribute toward the inexorable path to systemic failure. It will begin with the relapse failure of the US banking system. Citigroup is facing real bankruptcy, whose numerous segments are underwater and growing worse. Bank of America is in a death spiral, whose CEO Ken Lewis departs amidst political and shareholder legal pressures. Wells Fargo is so dead that its true balance sheet makes a skeleton come to life, whose prime Option ARM and second mortgage exposure is monumental. Maybe Citigroup, BOA, and Wells will use USFed funds to acquire the entire US banking system and subject it to their brilliant acumen, leadership, and access to the corrupt money pits. Lock in those executive bonuses!

The hidden housing inventory will ensure that housing prices continue down for a couple more years. At best they will stabilize somewhat, but only if a monumental hidden housing inventory is permitted to accumulate. The big banks, the very same that abused mortgage bonds with leveraged instruments, own an outsized supply of foreclosed homes. What a fitting reward! They tend to release only a portion of this home supply, so as to permit some price stability as demand catches up. Lenders are reluctant to lend though, even while the foreclosure process continues. Job loss is the main driving factor, amidst household insolvency.

The Zero Interest Rate Policy is worn as a badge of shame to reflect central bank failure. It rewards savings not at all. It encourages the same speculation that produced bubbles to kill the banks and households. It encourages a Dollar Carry Trade, which ensures a pressured decline in the USDollar itself. The October Hat Trick Letter will discuss additional risks and dangerous consequences from the Dollar Carry Trade. Remember, Bernhacky assured the USCongress, the US conferences of economists, and the US people that the USFed would not resort to 0% rates. He did just that. In addition to powering with leverage the US$ exchange rate downward, this carry trade takes away a viable Exit Strategy for the USFed. Imagine Wall Street leveraged speculative machinery interrupting any potential lift in the official US interest rate! Recall that the USFed does take orders from the Wall Street syndicate. They selected him. They hired him. His job is to run the Printing Pre$ day and night, to invent new liquidity facilities, to preach solutions to the USCongress, to shut up, and to follow orders. In the last year, the USFed has acted like it is the entire banking system. What exactly is the exit doorway to take from that strategy?

Without hesitation, one can claim that No Meaningful Reform or Restructure has occurred. The US financial and economic structures continue to suffer from precisely the same problems that resulted in systemic breakdown in the autumn months of 2008. The difference now is that the previous high volume of acidic money is exceeded with higher volumes now. USGovt debts are now much higher. Lending institutions are less prone to lend now than one or two years ago. Commercial paper used not to flow at all, and now flows but with less volume and from fewer channels and with more USFed assistance than ever before. Innovative thought is totally suppressed, if not crushed. Advocates for a reformed system without paper fiat money are dismissed. The syndicate continues to ply its trade and to control the levers. But their work is frenzied, and they are sure to lose control.

No meaningful reform comes even to the hundreds of thousands of mortgage loans that undergo Home Loan Modification. They cannot alter the loan balances, since that would require alteration of the associated mortgage loans that rely upon income stream from loan payments. This is not acceptable, since it would reveal the pervasive bond fraud, the counterfeit bonds, and the duplicate usage of home loans in multiple mortgage bonds. So solutions come to toss billion$ at the big banks, without solution, an assuredly failed Top-Down approach that appeals to Wall Street. The extort the money and hide the paths of funds. Also, on the small business front, the restructure of the Small Business lender & insurer CIT failed to produce any meaningful revitalization. Its June debt restructure agreement with bond holders failed to stick. It now seeks a $5 billion loan as debtor in possession. A million businesses would be affected if CIT folded and was liquidated. We are told of a recovery in progress. Its roots are in propaganda, crowd control, and shaping of public opinion. George Orwell would smile and smirk from his 1984 address on Cemetery Lane.

No national initiative has come to bring back US industry to the US shores. No national initiative has come to retain businesses by means of reduced taxation and reduced regulatory burdens. No national initiative has come to remove from power those responsible for Wall Street bond fraud. No national initiative has come to even force a proper accounting to Wall Street firms or Fannie Mae or AIG. No national initiative has come to conduct a true autopsy of Lehman Brothers, like to see what assets they held, what hedge funds they sponsored, what counterfeit Fannie Mae bonds they were soon to toss onto the table, and whether JPMorgan did indeed pay off private Lehman accounts with the $138 billion in slush funds. The booty was handed to them at a bankruptcy court meeting held before dawn on an September Saturday morning. No national initiative has come to force disclosure of the TARP fund distribution, or to reveal what the USFed does with its trillion$ of created money. They destroyed the USDollar, and the victims enduring the crisis from inside the USDome need to know. Without hesitation, one can claim that all attempts to shine light on the financial sector and its ivory towers have been obstructed.

Two further factors ensure the sustained crisis in the USGovt finances, with certain continued contagion to the financial sector and the tangible economy. The Endless War with its increasingly less credible banter against terrorism drains the United States of funds, saps its national spirit, cripples its soldiers, and extends risk in countless ways. The USDollar and USTreasury Bond suffer from lost foreign confidence and faith. The real threat to national security lies in the finance sector rooted in Wall Street. Almost all talk about foreign threat is a grand distraction from the internal threat, even as incredibly grand fraud is committed in the name of patriotism. The Entrenched Financial Syndicate remains in power, controls all financial policy, directs funds from the Printing Pre$, influences the USCongress with slush contributions, controls regulatory body heads, engineers nationalizations of fraud-ridden financial firms, interferes with FBI investigations (see the GSax trading software), integrates with foreign policy, and provides segments to the US press networks. Fully 70% of US press network content comes from the USGovt and its myriad agencies with spokesmen and public relations offices.

FAILURE & DEFAULT ON THE HORIZON

Going hand in hand with the destructive 0% policy is the Hidden Monetization of USGovt Debt, clearly. The zero rate encourages new asset bubbles, like the historically unprecedented spectacular USTreasury bubble. USTBONDS MAKE THE FINAL BUBBLE. The zero rate enables new carry trades with no cost. The zero rate permits a private banker party to engage in their own corner carry trade, buying long-dated USTreasurys with free money while shorting the short-term USTBills. This acts like a money machine for bankers to restore their balance sheets. The only trouble is their balance sheets have a hemorrhage at work, with additional ongoing relentless credit portfolio losses. The accounting fraud can only mask the problem, which happens to grow worse with each passing month. With lost integrity from the 0% rate comes disdain for the monetary system generally and for the USDollar specifically, along with other major currencies locked near 0% also.

While the 0% official rate creates problems much like those that erupted in a crisis, the monetization of debt issuance signals to the entire world to abandon the USDollar. The monetization assures the death of the USDollar. It is Weimar revisited, but with more military might and far more arrogance. Megalomania gone awry results in catastrophe. Monetization represents back-door devious measures to stave off the disaster of bond auction failures. Monetization is a broken promise made to creditors, who must feel betrayed. Monetization is a vast undermine to the validity, value, and very authenticity of a currency. The government debt for the custodian to the global reserve currency is being monetized, thereby creating gigantic air pockets, and funding a carry trade. The most dangerous asset bubble on the planet right now is the USTreasury. It pays 0% on short maturities. What is next? The forced USGovt worker pension contribution to USTreasurys? How about all state workers too, in their pensions? Maybe eventually all 401k and IRA and Keough pension plans as well, in their pensions? Every citizen maybe support the USTreasurys in pensions, out of patriotism, for national security? With lost integrity from the monetization patterned schemes, comes fear of a repeated Weimar hyper-inflation episode.

What comes is the US bank system failure. The endless rounds of bank credit portfolio losses dictate it. The Stress Tests are soon to be discredited, less than one year after their farcical production. The leading losers will be commercial mortgages, prime Option ARMortgages, and credit card losses. Banks are not prepared, having inadequate Loan Loss Reserves, guarding their profits, denying their reserves, managing their stock prices. They deceive their share holders on continued portfolio risk. They try to shove all their garbage assets on the USFed and to Fannie Mae under the USGovt roof, amidst the shrill cries of ‘Too Big To Fail’ nonsense. A US bank system failure is coming. With lost integrity from the banking system, insolvent in its own core, supplanted in function by the USFed itself, lending so little as to force declines in the consumer credit funds, comes distrust of financial institutions generally.

Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a Ph.D. in Statistics. His career has stretched over 25 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials.

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FOIA request reveals Cap and Trade a national energy tax that will devastate American families

Excellent post from ZeroHedge:

Congressman Upton Demands Declassification Of Censured Cap-And-Trade Cost Estimates

One of the most ambitious projects undertaken by the Administration and Goldman Sachs, that seeks to entrench the Wall Street oligarchy, is cap-and-trade. Yet, just like all the other initiatives percolating in Obama's docket, there are still many open question marks surrounding this mega-project. And specifically its costs.

Recently congressman Fred Upton, a vocal opponent of cap-and-trade, submitted the following letter to Tim Geithner demanding increasing disclosure in a FOIA response, which had had key figures censored, whose disclosure would have provided much needed cost-side information.

In response to a FOIA request, Administration officials deliberately censored figures that specify the annual costs cap-and-tax will impose. The Treasury documents appear to confirm what Upton has been saying all along, that cap-and-trade is a national energy tax that will devastate American families.

As Upton points out, the Treasury blatantly removed the one most critical figure:

I am particularly interested in the one-page document entitled Domestic Climate Policy that was prepared by Judson Jaffe. The Jaffe document omits important figures, most glaringly, on the annual costs under a cap-and-trade regime, stating, “It will raise energy prices and impose annual costs on the order of XXXXXXXX dollars.”

And the Congressman further goes to point out just what the incremental tax to fund a program that will asymmetrically benefit certain Wall Street enterprises:

Study after study has predicted cap-and-trade will result in skyrocketing energy bills and massive job losses. The Congressional Budget Office conservatively estimated that meeting the mandated reductions would cost $864 billion, while some anticipate closer to $1.5 trillion. CBO also predicted gasoline costs would increase by 77 cents per gallon and diesel by 88 cents. And now Treasury documents suggest families will see an annual increase of $1,700, at a minimum.

But when it comes to the squid, you have to pay in order to play. And as for the fabled transparency that Obama promised, which alas ends up with white out (or in this case black out) being generously applied to critical items that should be made known to the entire US population:

The censorship of these documents does not correlate with the Administration’s efforts for greater transparency, and raises many serious questions regarding one of the Administration’s leading initiatives that stands to eliminate millions of jobs and affect every single American citizen at a time when the national unemployment rate hovers just below ten percent.

One could go further and say that the cloud of opacity under which not just this but all administrations have been operating for decades, in direct complicity with such institutions as the Fed, the Treasury, and various regulators, also has to be done away with. Yet that would mean a complete change of a multi century status quo, and a direct threat to the ruling financial-political-kleptocratic oligarchy. And the last thing that anyone in control (of either power or money, or both) would like the average American to know is how deep the stream of prevarication flows. In retrospect, if last year's near-catastrophic events did not cause anything to change, now that the Lehamn and AIG implosion are merely a repressed memory, one can be sure that absent another systemic collapse, it will be more and more difficult to get the well-entrenched organizations to open up. Alas, by the time the next bubble pops, it will be too late as there will be nothing left to salvage.

Geithner Cap and Trade