10 things credit bureaus won’t say

1. “We track a lot more than just your credit.”

Credit bureaus are well known for tracking consumers’ credit history, including tabulating such details as whether they pay their bills on time and how much debt they carry. And as evidenced by the recent case of Julie Miller, who was awarded $18 million after she sued Equifax — one of the three main credit reporting bureaus — for failing to correct major mistakes in her credit report, the information they compile can sometimes be riddled with errors.

But the bureaus also maintain information that has nothing to do with credit, from consumers’ home addresses to their employment records. While that data isn’t used to calculate credit scores, lenders can access this personal information and use it to help evaluate borrowers who are applying for credit — even to justify denying them a loan altogether. Individuals who change addresses often, for instance, may be presumed less financially stable and harder to track down if unpaid debts ever need to be collected, says Louis Hyman, a consumer-credit historian and assistant professor at Cornell University. Similarly, those who change jobs every few months could be viewed as more likely to miss payments, he says. Read more >>

Delinquencies Rise as Consumers Load Up on Debt

Americans cranked up their use of credit cards in the third quarter, racking up more debt than a year ago, while also being less diligent about making payments on time, an analysis of consumer-credit data shows.

The average credit card debt per borrower in the U.S. grew 4.9 percent in the July-to-September period from a year earlier to $4,996, credit reporting agency TransUnion said Monday.

At the same time, the rate of credit card payments at least 90 days overdue hit 0.75 percent, up from 0.71 percent in the third quarter of last year, the firm said.

While higher, the late payment rate is rising from historically low levels. The lowest late payment rate on TransUnion records going back to the mid-1990s was 0.56 percent, set in the third quarter of 1994. More recently, it was at 0.60 percent in the second quarter of last year.

During the last recession, many Americans reined in spending in favor of paying off debt, particularly credit card balances. The housing downturn also prompted many homeowners to make paying their credit card accounts on time a priority at the expense of other financial obligations, such as their mortgage payments. Read more >>

Americans Are Carrying More Credit Card Debt

Americans are carrying more credit card debt than a year ago, yet the late-payment rate for card holders remains near an 18-year low, an analysis of consumer-credit data shows.

The average credit card debt per borrower in the U.S. grew about 6 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, credit reporting agency TransUnion said Tuesday. At the same time, the rate of payments at least 90 days overdue inched higher to 0.63 percent from 0.60 percent in the same period last year, when the rate hit the lowest level in 18 years. Card delinquencies sank to 0.56 percent in the third quarter of 1994, the firm said.

The April-to-June figures reflect how consumers have been managing their credit card use since the start of the last recession toward the end of 2007. Many borrowers have taken steps to save money and whittle down their debt. Among homeowners with a mortgage, many have made credit card bills a priority over their home loans and other financial obligations. Read more >>

True US GDP is 30% lower than official figures

The United States’ entry into the austerity phase actually started at least two years ago. In fact, the crisis and its consequences in terms of a collapse in earnings and capital, as well as the drastic restriction of consumer credit, are only one step in the process of the impoverishment of the US middle classes which started nearly thirty years ago. Throughout the whole of this period, the frenzy of easy credit had the aim of hiding this impoverishment by compensating for a shortage of income with unlimited debt.

The crisis having brought an abrupt end to this process, Washington (Government, Congress and the Fed together) has tried to make up for its disappearance by gigantic public debt. But, as we see on a daily basis, looking at the country’s economic and social development, this attempt has failed for the reasons discussed earlier in this issue of the GEAB. However, this attempt has a direct impact on US GDP that most economists and experts refuse to acknowledge because they would be a shock of such violence for global economic and financial stability that the so-called « Greek crisis » would look like a simple training exercise. Read More...

Sovereign Debt Default: No Time Like the Present

Bill Bonner
While the markets are hot, the economy is cool. Nearly 7,000 people go bankrupt every day – a record number. And in March, M3, the broadest measure of the money supply, recorded its biggest drop ever.

And get this. Peak to trough, December ’07 to February ’10, 8.3 million jobs were lost. As we reported yesterday, take away the statistical tricks and the number of people with real jobs actually fell last month – despite reports of an additional 163,000 new jobs in March.

Consumer credit fell again in February – down $11 billion. To put this number in perspective, the US government has run about $2.5 trillion in deficits since the correction began. So, in spite of pumping monthly deficits on the order of $120 billion…consumer credit still sank by $11 billion.

What can we say? It’s a Great Correction, after all.

Greece is going broke after all. Yields on Greek debt rose over 7% yesterday. So let’s look at how this works. Investors worry about a default. They push up yields (they need higher interest payments to justify the risk). This causes Greece to go further into debt (the cost of paying the extra interest), which causes even more worry among lenders.

Why doesn’t Greece just cut expenses?

Ah…glad you asked. This just goes to show what a dead-end debt can be. The government has already proposed substantial cuts. But it has to answer to the voters – who are on the verge of rioting in the street. And its own cabinet ministers are calling the Germans ‘racist’ because they refuse to give the Greeks money.

It’s hard for a popular democracy to cut spending. And then when it does, it discovers that it is in another trap. So much of the private sector depends on government spending that, take it away, and the whole economy shrinks. This causes tax revenues to fall by more than the budget cuts. In other words, a multiplier works in the other direction – causing the budget deficit to widen when cuts are made!

And guess what? Greece is not the only government that is falling into this hole. Latvia. Iceland. Maybe Ireland, England, California…and even the US…

Where, exactly, the point of no return lies, we don’t know. But it’s out there somewhere…

What’s the solution? Well, just to bite the bullet. Make the cuts. Default. Be happy.

Regards,

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning

Consumer Credit in U.S. Drops Record $17.5 Billion

Vincent Del Giudice
Consumer credit in the U.S. dropped a record $17.5 billion in November as unemployment close to a 26- year high discouraged borrowing and banks limited access to loans.

A labor market that’s shed 7.2 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007 is restraining consumer spending that accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. Fed policy makers have said tighter bank lending standards and reductions in credit lines are hampering the recovery.

“Double-digit unemployment is eroding consumer confidence and the uncertainty is prompting consumers to pay down their credit card debts,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “We have not seen such a wholesale reduction in consumer credit since the last time we had double-digit unemployment rate following the early ‘80s recessions.”

The series of 10 straight declines in consumer credit was the longest since record-keeping began in 1943.

Treasury two-year notes gained the most in three weeks after the Labor Department said today that companies reduced payrolls in December by 85,000 workers after adding 4,000 a month earlier. The unemployment rate held at 10 percent.

Stocks, Yields

Two-year Treasury yields dropped below 1 percent, to 0.97 percent at 4:52 p.m. in New York, from 1.02 percent late yesterday.

Revolving debt, such as credit cards, plunged by a record $13.7 billion in November, the Fed’s statistics showed. Non- revolving debt, including loans for autos and mobile homes, declined by $3.8 billion. The Fed’s report doesn’t cover borrowing secured by real estate.

Auto sales in the U.S. climbed in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 10.92 million, up from 10.45 million in October. The pace increased to 11.23 million in December, the strongest since 14.09 million in August, when Americans took advantage of government incentives.

Consumer Spending

Consumer spending increased in November for the sixth time in seven months as Americans took advantage of discounts during the holidays, Commerce Department figures showed Dec. 23. Faster growth in sales and improvement in households’ balance sheets depends on job creation.

“U.S. consumer credit quality remains under considerable stress due to persistently weak labor market conditions,” said Michael Dean, managing director at Fitch Ratings. A report from Fitch on Jan. 5 showed delinquent balances on credit cards at a record level.

At American Express Co., defaults and delinquencies fell to 2009 lows. AmEx was the only one of the “Big 6” credit-card issuers to post November declines in write-offs and delinquencies, the New York-based lender said in a Dec. 15 regulatory filing.

Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Officer Brian T. Moynihan has said the largest U.S. lender needs to reduce the loss rate on credit cards, which ranked highest among the nation’s six biggest card companies in November. Bank of America’s card defaults are “still very high,” Moynihan, 50, said.

‘Significant Bubble’

“As an industry, we over-lent and customers over-borrowed, and that led to a fairly significant bubble,” Moynihan said Jan. 4 in an interview on Bloomberg Television in Raleigh, North Carolina. “We have to help lead the economic recovery. At the same time, we have to be responsible lenders.”

Banks have responded by tightening credit standards, for consumers and companies. Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke said in a Jan. 4 speech that total loans on banks’ books fell at an annual rate of more than 11 percent in the third quarter. While banks are reducing lines of credit and tightening lending standards, small businesses are also losing their business relationships with banks as firms fail, merge or reduce their loan portfolios, Duke said.

Broken Relationships

“When existing lending relationships are broken, time may be required for other banks to establish and build such relationships, allowing lending to resume,” Duke said.

Britt Beemer, chairman of consumer polling firm America’s Research Group, said in a Dec. 21 interview that if lenders weren’t cutting customer spending limits and rejecting more credit-card applications, holiday sales would have been stronger.

December same-store sales climbed 3 percent, the biggest gain since April 2008, Retail Metrics Inc. said yesterday in an e-mailed statement.

Don't Buy Stuff - Sure-fire Way to Escape Debt

Man Shuns Recession - Lives in Cave

Christopher Ketcham; Photograph by Mark Heithoff

DANIEL SUELO LIVES IN A CAVE. UNLIKE THE average American—wallowing in credit-card debt, clinging to a mortgage, terrified of the next downsizing at the office—he isn't worried about the economic crisis. That's because he figured out that the best way to stay solvent is to never be solvent in the first place. Nine years ago, in the autumn of 2000, Suelo decided to stop using money. He just quit it, like a bad drug habit.

His dwelling, hidden high in a canyon lined with waterfalls, is an hour by foot from the desert town of Moab, Utah, where people who know him are of two minds: He's either a latter-day prophet or an irredeemable hobo. Suelo's blog, which he maintains free at the Moab Public Library, suggests that he's both. "When I lived with money, I was always lacking," he writes. "Money represents lack. Money represents things in the past (debt) and things in the future (credit), but money never represents what is present." More...