The S&P has rallied 19 percent in 2013, which is impressive by any measure. But the market did far better in 1987, when stocks added more than 30 percent from the beginning of the year to Aug. 8. The problem?
The market ended up tanking in the second half of that year—dropping 36 percent from the Aug. 25 peak to the October low, before closing out 1987 nearly exactly where it began.
And Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, predicts that the very same thing will happen in the back half of 2013.
"In 1987, we had a very powerful rally, but also earnings were no longer rising substantially, and the market became very overbought," Faber said on Thursday's "Futures Now." "The final rally into Aug. 25 occurred with a diminishing number of stocks hitting 52-week highs. In other words, the new-high list was contracting, and we have several breaks in different stocks."
Faber says that's exactly where we find ourselves this August.
"If you look at the last two days," Faber said, referring to Tuesday and Wednesday, "it's remarkable. We are close to the all-time high, at 1,709 on the S&P, and yet yesterday and the day before, there were 170 new 52-week lows. That's a very high figure." Read more >>
Showing posts with label Doom. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Doom. Show all posts
Friday, August 9, 2013
Friday, June 21, 2013
Marc Faber Sees Further Downside
There's plenty of room for the stock market to decline, noted bear Marc Faber said Thursday on CNBC. "Yes, I see further downside," said the editor of "The Gloom Boom & Doom Report."
However, Faber said that there were plenty of reasons for stocks to head lower other than what the Federal Reserve was doing in terms of quantitative easing. "I think the markets are worried about something else," he said on "Fast Money."
Faber noted that interest rates have been rising for a year, pointing to the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond and the 10-year U.S. Treasury note bottoming out in July. "So, we've been in an uptrend in interest rates," he added. But that wasn't the whole bear case. "The Chinese economy is much weaker than the official statistics suggest," Faber said.
"My view would be that at the present time, the Chinese economy is growing at something like 4 percent per annum, and without huge credit expansion there would probably be no growth at all."
Other emerging market economies were also poised for poor growth, he added. The outlook for gold and other metals were not great, either.
"Technically, commodities look horrible," Faber said, adding that for precious metals "some technical factiors would suggest that we're approaching at least an intermediate low." Read more >>
However, Faber said that there were plenty of reasons for stocks to head lower other than what the Federal Reserve was doing in terms of quantitative easing. "I think the markets are worried about something else," he said on "Fast Money."
Faber noted that interest rates have been rising for a year, pointing to the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond and the 10-year U.S. Treasury note bottoming out in July. "So, we've been in an uptrend in interest rates," he added. But that wasn't the whole bear case. "The Chinese economy is much weaker than the official statistics suggest," Faber said.
"My view would be that at the present time, the Chinese economy is growing at something like 4 percent per annum, and without huge credit expansion there would probably be no growth at all."
Other emerging market economies were also poised for poor growth, he added. The outlook for gold and other metals were not great, either.
"Technically, commodities look horrible," Faber said, adding that for precious metals "some technical factiors would suggest that we're approaching at least an intermediate low." Read more >>
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