China’s Growth Slows to Three-Year Low

China’s growth slowed for a sixth quarter to the weakest pace since the global financial crisis, putting pressure on Premier Wen Jiabao to boost stimulus to secure a second-half economic rebound. Gross domestic product expanded 7.6 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said today in Beijing. The pace, a three-year low, compares with an 8.1 percent gain in the previous period and the 7.7 percent median forecast of economists. Industrial production increased at a slower pace in June while retail sales growth decelerated.

Today’s data painted a mixed picture from a pickup in fixed-asset investment that could signal the economy is stabilizing to the warning sign that electricity output failed to increase in June from a year earlier. Singapore reported an unexpected economic contraction as China’s slowdown undermines a global recovery already threatened by Europe’s debt crisis and limited U.S. job growth.

“The fact that the data shows persistent weakness --rather than a precipitous plunge -- means policy makers are likely to continue incremental monetary accommodation but not embrace a more aggressive fiscal stimulus policy response in the immediate term,” said Ramin Toloui, Singapore-based global co-head of emerging-markets portfolio management at Pacific Investment Management Co., which manages the world’s largest bond fund. Read more >>

Gold May Top $6,000, Silver $600: Asset Manager

Image via WikipediaGold prices may reach $6,200 per ounce in a bull run which will “end all major bull markets,” Urs Gmuer, asset manager at Dolefin, a Swiss investment advice firm, told CNBC.

Gmuer’s prediction is based on analysis of the last major gold boom of the 1970s, during which gold prices rose from $35 per ounce to $850 per ounce. Gmuer said that in the current bull run, prices would be pushed upwards by a protracted period of global economic difficulty—potentially lasting years—during which investors would continue to search for so-called safe havens.

“Gold prices have risen over the last few years, as the macroeconomic picture has become worse. The deterioration of the fundamental situation has now gone even further.

“Purchases by investors of gold will be based on fears of systemic risk or banking crashes,” Gmuer said. More...