California becoming less family-friendly

For all of human history, family has underpinned the rise, and decline, of nations. This may also prove true for the United States, as demographics, economics and policies divide the nation into what may be seen as child-friendly and increasingly child-free zones.

Where California falls in this division also may tell us much about our state's future. Indeed, in his semi-triumphalist budget statement, our 74-year-old governor acknowledged California's rapid aging as one of the more looming threats for our still fiscally challenged state.

Gov. Jerry Brown, unsurprisingly, did not acknowledge or address the many factors driving the aging trend that include his own favored policy prescriptions. Whatever their intent, the usual "progressive" basket of policies have had regressive results: a tougher time for both the poor and middle class, and a set of density-oriented policies that are likely to drive up housing prices, particularly for the single-family houses largely preferred by people with children.

These policies have helped turn California into a state that looks less Sunbelt and more like the long-aging centers of the Northeast and the Midwest. It also mirrors declines in fertility and marriage rates in the most-rapidly aging parts of Europe and east Asia. These regions are shifting toward what Chapman University's recent report, in cooperation with the Civil Service College of Singapore, characterized as post-familialism. Released this past fall in Singapore, the report will be presented in Orange County this week. Read more >>

China’s Growth Slows to Three-Year Low

China’s growth slowed for a sixth quarter to the weakest pace since the global financial crisis, putting pressure on Premier Wen Jiabao to boost stimulus to secure a second-half economic rebound. Gross domestic product expanded 7.6 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said today in Beijing. The pace, a three-year low, compares with an 8.1 percent gain in the previous period and the 7.7 percent median forecast of economists. Industrial production increased at a slower pace in June while retail sales growth decelerated.

Today’s data painted a mixed picture from a pickup in fixed-asset investment that could signal the economy is stabilizing to the warning sign that electricity output failed to increase in June from a year earlier. Singapore reported an unexpected economic contraction as China’s slowdown undermines a global recovery already threatened by Europe’s debt crisis and limited U.S. job growth.

“The fact that the data shows persistent weakness --rather than a precipitous plunge -- means policy makers are likely to continue incremental monetary accommodation but not embrace a more aggressive fiscal stimulus policy response in the immediate term,” said Ramin Toloui, Singapore-based global co-head of emerging-markets portfolio management at Pacific Investment Management Co., which manages the world’s largest bond fund. Read more >>

US to Experience Stagflation Worse Than 1970s: Jim Rogers

Image via WikipediaThe U.S. economy is likely to experience a period of stagflation worse than the 1970s, which would cause bond yields to spike, commodity bull Jim Rogers told CNBC on Friday in Singapore. Rogers said governments were lying about the inflation problem and the recent rally in Treasurys was a bubble.

"As the inflation numbers get worse and as governments print more money and as governments have to issue many, many more bonds - somewhere along the line we get to the point when (bond prices) go down."

Between 1974 and 1978 average inflation in the U.S. was at 8 percent, while unemployment hit a peak of 9 percent in May 1975. Currently, unemployment is at 9.1 percent while CPI is at 3.8 percent.

Rogers believes inflation will get much worse this time because, he said, in the 1970s only the Fed was printing money, whereas now many global central banks have been easing monetary policy. More...

India’s inflation accelerates; food costs increase

India’s inflation accelerated as food costs increased, adding pressure on the central bank to extend last year’s fastest round of monetary tightening in Asia.

The benchmark wholesale-price index rose 8.43 percent in December from a year earlier after a 7.48 percent gain in November, according to a commerce ministry statement in New Delhi today. The median forecast of 30 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for an 8.4 percent increase.

“Inflation is worrying and is a potential constraint on the economy’s growth potential,” Robert Prior-Wandesforde, the Singapore-based head of India and Southeast Asia economics at Credit Suisse Group AG, said before the release. “The central bank is likely to step in and hike rates.” Read more...

U.S. Economy Losing to Sweden & Singapore

The U.S. has slipped down the ranks of competitive economies, falling behind Sweden and Singapore due to huge deficits and pessimism about government, a global economic group said Thursday.

Switzerland retained the top spot for the second year in the annual ranking by the Geneva-based World Economic Forum. It combines economic data and a survey of more than 13,500 business executives.

Sweden moved up to second place while Singapore stayed at No. 3. The United States was in second place last year after falling from No. 1 in 2008.

The WEF praised the United States for its innovative companies, excellent universities and flexible labor market. But it also cited huge deficits, rising government debt and declining public faith in politicians and corporate ethics. More...

Signs of economic doom Govt can't hide

No matter how much effort the government and their media lap dogs invest in distorting, re- framing, and omitting crucial statistical data to conceal the truth, signs abound that reveal the stark truth about the present state of the global economy, signs that also reveal the grim forecast of what lies ahead. Ship after ship in the busiest port in the world are empty and idled; the following BBC excerpt explains why:

Idling ships clog up Singapore shores
By Pauline Mason

Singapore claims to be the busiest port in the world. About 130,000 ships arrive there each year. But these days, the problem is many of those vessels are not putting back out to sea. The usual stay for a cargo carrier is just ten days. That is enough time to offload one set of cargo and take on another load, re-fuel and re-stock supplies. But, of the 220 container ships arriving in Singapore this year, - excluding the tugs, yachts and bunkering vessels which are permanent port residents - more than half have stayed longer than that. Another 44 cargo ships have been in port for more than six months.

It costs about $1,000 (£614) per day to keep a ship at Singapore port. On top of that, most of these ships would have been bought with multi-million dollar loans that need to be serviced. They will have a crew that needs to be paid, fed and watered. Engines and machinery that need to be maintained. All of this is necessary for a ship to maintain its class - the equivalent of an MOT or bill of health. Being taken "out of class" means a ship cannot trade or earn money and cannot be insured for voyage on the open sea.

The sharp downturn in world trade is behind this enforced idleness. And, in the absence of global economic recovery, all firms can do is minimise their costs. A ship owner can save up to 80% of his or her running costs just by laying anchor 45 minutes south of Singapore, off the Indonesia islands of Batam-Rempang-Galang. Earlier this year, Rob Wilkins, general manager, Enviro Force, opened a new anchorage off Galang.

"In Singapore you have to maintain a full crew (25-30 people on average) on-board your vessel," he says. "In Batam you don't. You can save on insurance costs, maintenance costs and crew costs by laying up here instead."

Mr Wilkins and his partner Damian Chapman are serial entrepreneurs. For months, they have noticed more and more vessels idling in ports, running up huge costs. According to AXS Alphaliner, 511 container ships are laid up. That is a tenth of the global fleet.