"Farmers' Almanac" predicts a "bitterly cold" winter

The Farmers' Almanac is using words like "piercing cold," "bitterly cold" and "biting cold" to describe the upcoming winter. And if its predictions are right, the first outdoor Super Bowl in years will be a messy "Storm Bowl."

The 197-year-old publication that hits newsstands Monday predicts a winter storm will hit the Northeast around the time the Super Bowl is played at MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands in New Jersey. It also predicts a colder-than-normal winter for two-thirds of the country and heavy snowfall in the Midwest, Great Lakes and New England.

"We're using a very strong four-letter word to describe this winter, which is C-O-L-D. It's going to be very cold," said Sandi Duncan, managing editor.

Based on planetary positions, sunspots and lunar cycles, the almanac's secret formula is largely unchanged since founder David Young published the first almanac in 1818.

Modern scientists don't put much stock in sunspots or tidal action, but the almanac says its forecasts used by readers to plan weddings and plant gardens are correct about 80 percent of the time. Read more >>

Federal energy regulator accuses JPMorgan of manipulating electricity market

JPMorgan Chase Tower (Dallas) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The U.S. power market regulator took a step toward charging JPMorgan with gaming electricity prices on Monday, confirming months of media reports about "manipulative" trading schemes that have rattled the bank.

The "notice of alleged violations," which outlines bidding strategies used by traders in California and the Midwest, is an intermediate step by the regulator, but brings details of the investigation into public view.

The U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) staff has found "eight manipulative bidding strategies" used by a JPM affiliate in 2010 and 2011, the regulator said.

JPMorgan declined to comment. The notice comes as little surprise after weeks of reports that JPMorgan and FERC are in talks to settle the alleged trading infractions for as much as $400 million. It did not contain any mention of specific traders or commodities chief Blythe Masters, who had been mentioned in media reports as having been at risk of being singled out. Read more >>

California becoming less family-friendly

For all of human history, family has underpinned the rise, and decline, of nations. This may also prove true for the United States, as demographics, economics and policies divide the nation into what may be seen as child-friendly and increasingly child-free zones.

Where California falls in this division also may tell us much about our state's future. Indeed, in his semi-triumphalist budget statement, our 74-year-old governor acknowledged California's rapid aging as one of the more looming threats for our still fiscally challenged state.

Gov. Jerry Brown, unsurprisingly, did not acknowledge or address the many factors driving the aging trend that include his own favored policy prescriptions. Whatever their intent, the usual "progressive" basket of policies have had regressive results: a tougher time for both the poor and middle class, and a set of density-oriented policies that are likely to drive up housing prices, particularly for the single-family houses largely preferred by people with children.

These policies have helped turn California into a state that looks less Sunbelt and more like the long-aging centers of the Northeast and the Midwest. It also mirrors declines in fertility and marriage rates in the most-rapidly aging parts of Europe and east Asia. These regions are shifting toward what Chapman University's recent report, in cooperation with the Civil Service College of Singapore, characterized as post-familialism. Released this past fall in Singapore, the report will be presented in Orange County this week. Read more >>

Corn inventory drops to eight-year low

The country's corn, soybean and wheat inventory fell steeply from last year, according to a report released Friday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. In its latest grain survey, the agency reported that as of Sept. 1, old corn stocks -- grain harvested last year -- totaled 988 million bushels, a decline of 12% from the same time last year. That is the lowest level since 2004.

Shortly after the survey was released, corn futures prices jumped by the 40-cent limit on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Friday, with delivery for December corn at $7.56 per bushel.

Prices were already high as the worst drought in decades has decimated the country's corn crop. In August, corn futures rose to a record high of $8.49 per bushel. But prices eased after the Midwest saw some rainfall. Read more >>

Get ready to pay more for your steak

The drought that's spreading across the Midwest is already squeezing consumers, and it's only going to get worse, as the rising cost of soybeans and corn leads to higher prices for meat, peanut butter and other staples.

The price of ground beef could rise to about $2.88 per pound this year, a 4% jump from last year, when the average price per pound was $2.77, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Department of Agriculture. And if you want steak, get ready to pay 25 cents more per pound for sirloin, with the average price rising to $6.47.

Meat prices had already been moving higher, even before the drought took hold. The price of sirloin steak rose more than 15% between June 2011 and June 2012, while ground beef rose more than 8% and chicken prices increased more than 6%, according to the BLS. Beef prices may react a bit more slowly to the drought as ranchers work to manage their cattle inventory. Read more >>

Corn prices hit record as crops shrivel

Corn prices surged to a new record high Monday, as the worst drought in more than 50 years continues to plague more than half the country. Almost 90% of the United States' corn crops are in drought ravaged areas, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and nearly 40% are situated in the hardest hit spots.

Corn prices have soared more than 50% during the past six weeks as the crops continue to shrivel in relentless dry heat throughout the Midwest. They jumped another 3% Monday to a record high of $8.17 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.

The Teucrium Corn ETF, which tracks a basket corn futures contracts, gained 2.5%. Soybean prices, which are up more than 20% in recent weeks, also advanced. Prices rose 1% Monday to touch $16.17 per bushel, the highest since July 23. The Teucrium Soybean ETF (SOYB) gained more than 2%. Soybean prices will likely continue to rise as the heat lingers in the area where soybeans are the major crop.

"Soybeans are second only to corn as the biggest agricultural product in the Midwest," said Alex Sosnowski, expert senior Meteorologist at AccuWeather.com. "While episodes of rain will continue over some agricultural areas in the Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley and East in the coming weeks, part of primary soybean growing areas will continue to be slammed by heat and drought." Read more >>

USDA Slashes Corn Outlook - "Food Price Spike Dead Ahead"

A scorching drought across the Midwest will slash corn yields by much more than most analysts had expected, the government said in a report that reignited a record rally in grain prices. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said the crop will average just 146.0 bushels an acre, down 20 bushels from its June estimate.

As a result, the agency reduced its forecast for ending stocks by 37 percent from last month, partly offset by lower exports and less ethanol usage. The surprisingly deep cut to the yield outlook shocked traders, who had expected the USDA to take a more conservative approach to adjusting its outlook. The reduction in ending stocks was deeper than the forecast for a 32 percent cut. Read more >>

This from Zero Hedge:

Who knew the next black swan would be deep fried? The biggest piece of imminent food inflation news over the past months, coupled with what is shaping up to be another record hot summer (for the best tracking of real-time electricity consumption primarily for cooling news we recommend the following PJM RT tracker of power load), has been the collapse in the corn harvest due to the worst drought since 1988 as 56% of America is in drought conditions.

Today, the US just added some burning oil to the popcorn by cutting the corn-crop forecast by 12% to 13 billion bushels on expectations of a 13.5 billion harvest. Then again, who needs corn, when you can have cake? Read more >>

Drought hits 56 percent of continental US; 'significant toll' on crops

The prolonged heat across the Midwest has not only set temperature records, it is also expanding and intensifying drought conditions -- and relief isn't on the horizon for most areas, the National Weather Service reported Thursday.

Drought conditions are present in 56 percent of the continental U.S., according to the weekly Drought Monitor. That's the most in the 12 years that the data have been compiled, topping the previous record of 55 percent set on Aug. 26, 2003. It's also up five percentage points from the previous week.

The drought hasn't been long enough to rank up there with the 1930s Dust Bowl or a bad stretch in the 1950s, David Miskus, a meteorologist at the weather service's Climate Prediction Center, told msnbc.com. "We don't have that here yet," he said. "This has really only started this year." But for a single year it's still pretty significant, not far behind an extremely dry 1988. Read more >>

Potential Disaster For U.S. Corn Supply

Corn supplies in the U.S., the world’s biggest exporter, are declining at the fastest pace since 1996 just as a Midwest heat wave damages the world’s largest harvest for a third consecutive year. Stockpiles were probably 3.168 billion bushels (80.47 million metric tons) on June 1, 47 percent less than on March 1, the average of 22 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg shows.

The worst Midwest drought in more than a decade is wilting a harvest that the U.S. Department of Agriculture says will be the biggest ever. The agency updates its inventory estimate June 29 and its production forecast two weeks later. Futures surged 28 percent since reaching a 20-month low June 15, and Morgan Stanley expects prices to advance an additional 7.9 percent to $7 a bushel in two months if the drought persists.

The rally is boosting global food costs that the United Nations estimates dropped 14 percent from a record in February 2011 and widening losses for ethanol producers including Decatur, Illinois-based Archer Daniels Midland Co. “We have a potential disaster developing for the U.S. corn supply,” said Peter Meyer, the senior director for agricultural commodities at PIRA Energy Group in New York who cut his corn- crop forecast after surveying fields in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio last week. “This year may be the worst yet.” Read more >>

Existing home sales drop 3.8%; sales more than 15% lower than in May 2010

Sales of existing homes fell in May, as severe weather and high gas prices weighed on the shaky housing market.

Home sales fell 3.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.81 million, down from a revised rate of 5 million in April, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.

Sales were more than 15% lower than in May 2010.

Economists had expected a May sales rate of 4.79 million existing homes, according to consensus estimates from Briefing.com.

"Spiking gasoline prices along with widespread severe weather hurt house shopping in April, leading to soft figures for actual closings in May," said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun.

Gas prices surged earlier this year, pinching household budgets and putting a damper on consumer spending. In addition, sales were hurt by tornados and flooding in May that devastated parts of the South and Midwest. More...

Builders of new homes see no signs of recovery

Image via WikipediaSales of new single-family homes in February were down more than 80 percent from the 2005 peak, far exceeding the 28 percent drop in existing home sales. New single-family sales are now lower than at any point since the data was first collected in 1963, when the nation had 120 million fewer residents.
Story: Sales of new homes plunge to record low

Builders and analysts say a long-term shift in behavior seems to be under way. Instead of wanting the biggest and the newest, even if it requires a long commute, buyers now demand something smaller, cheaper and, thanks to $4-a-gallon gas, as close to their jobs as possible. That often means buying a home out of foreclosure from a bank. More...