Showing posts with label Short (finance). Show all posts
Showing posts with label Short (finance). Show all posts

Friday, August 16, 2013

All the pieces are in place for a major uptrend in gold

Gold Key, weighing one kilogram is used to acc...
All the pieces are in place for a major uptrend in gold to begin right away, and it appears to be starting as this is being prepared. The Commercials have cleared out virtually all of their short positions, for a massive profit of course, meaning that the slate is wiped clean for the game to start over anew. Public opinion and sentiment towards gold remains rotten, which is exactly what you expect to see at a major low, with the investing public at large, having been duly “educated” by the mainstream media, harboring a negative attitude to gold and if anything inclined to short it. Lastly, seasonal factors couldn’t be better – August and September are traditionally the best months of the year for gold.

On its 1-year chart we can see that gold had already broken out of its steep downtrend in mid-July, since which time it has been held in check by its falling 50-day moving average, which is now starting to flatten out, so that a bull Flag appears to have formed as the price retreated back along the top of the trendline that it had earlier broken above.

This Flag implies another upleg, which appears to have started this morning, and this uptrend could really gain traction soon if the price breaks above the nearby resistance shown, given the huge speculative short positions that have built up and the consequent potential for massive short covering. The gap between the 50 and 200-day moving averages provides a measure of how oversold gold is. Of course, breaking above the strong resistance at the earlier major support in the $1550 area that failed back in the Spring will be a tough nut to crack, but we will have to see how gold shapes up approaching it, in order to assess the chances of an early breakout above this key level. Read more >>
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Monday, August 12, 2013

Gold Shorts Cover At Fastest Pace In 13 Years

Gold Feet
Gold shorts covered an enormous 23,518 futures contracts last week - the equivalent of 2,351,800 ounces of gold. With JPMorgan appearing to be calling everyone (here and here) to get their hands on gold to deliver, it seems our concerns over a short-squeeze are starting to solidify.

The last time shorts collapsed at this fast a rate was in the 1999/2000 period which saw a considerable 33% squeeze ramp in gold prices over the space of 3 weeks in the fall of 1999. Notably, the gold short position still remains huge compared to historical values - having fallen back only to the previous all-time record high levels (i.e. plenty of room for moar squeeze). In addition to this surge in covering, Gold ETFs saw their first inflows in 2 months. Read more >>
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Friday, June 1, 2012

26% of U.S. Home Sales in First Quarter Were Foreclosures

English: Foreclosure Sign, Mortgage Crisis
Homes in some stage of foreclosure accounted for more than one in four home sales during the first three months of the year, according to a report released Thursday. Distressed properties that were either in default, scheduled for auction or bank-owned accounted for 26% of all residential sales during the first quarter, up from 22% in the previous quarter and 25% a year earlier, RealtyTrac said.

Altogether, 233,299 distressed properties were purchased during the quarter, an 8% increase from the previous quarter. Those homes sold for an average of $161,214, 27% below the average price of a home not in foreclosure.

"Foreclosure-related sales picked up in the first quarter, particularly pre-foreclosure sales where a distressed homeowner is selling to avoid foreclosure -- typically via a short sale," Brandon Moore, chief executive of RealtyTrac said in a statement. Read more >>

Monday, May 7, 2012

Hedge Funds Betting Against the Eurozone: Why You Should Worry

Hedge Fund Managers - Lynching Party Needed
Some of the world's most prominent hedge fund managers are betting against the eurozone -- and not just the peripheral countries everyone knows are in trouble. They're taking positions against the core countries, economies that -- until now -- everyone has assumed were rock-solid.

In a nutshell, some of the world's best-paid, most-seasoned, and savviest investors are sufficiently convinced of the underlying sickness of even the most apparently stable eurozone countries that they're placing serious bets on their potential collapse.

John Paulson, the billionaire who made his name (and his money) by shorting the U.S. mortgage securities market in the run up to the 2008 financial meltdown, is one of the hedge fund managers reported to be shorting Germany. More...

Sunday, April 24, 2011

Builders of new homes see no signs of recovery

Small Single-family homeImage via WikipediaSales of new single-family homes in February were down more than 80 percent from the 2005 peak, far exceeding the 28 percent drop in existing home sales. New single-family sales are now lower than at any point since the data was first collected in 1963, when the nation had 120 million fewer residents.
Story: Sales of new homes plunge to record low

Builders and analysts say a long-term shift in behavior seems to be under way. Instead of wanting the biggest and the newest, even if it requires a long commute, buyers now demand something smaller, cheaper and, thanks to $4-a-gallon gas, as close to their jobs as possible. That often means buying a home out of foreclosure from a bank. More...
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Monday, April 18, 2011

U.S. homebuilder sentiment down as home prices continue falling

Half million dollar house in Salinas, Californ...Image via WikipediaU.S. homebuilder sentiment slipped a notch in April as home prices continued to fall in most areas of the country amid widespread foreclosures, a survey released on Monday showed.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market index fell to 16 from 17, leaving the index in the pessimist range for a full five years.

A reading above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. The index has not been above 50 since April 2006.

“The spring home buying season is getting off to a slow start due to persistent concerns about home values as more foreclosures seem to be hitting the market, increasingly restrictive lending requirements for home buyers and builders, and the slow pace of economic recovery," said David Crowe, the NAHB's chief economist. More...
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Thursday, November 4, 2010

Silver Breaks Out From Price Manipulation, The Gains Will be Breath Taking

Jim_Willie_CB

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA love affair with silver is so natural. The fundamentals are astoundingly positive and bullish in price prospects. My basic argument has been repeated many times. Industry has countless uses for silver, significant demand. But industry has only miniscule isolated uses for gold, in trivial demand. So silver wins on the Demand side of the equation. Central banks own a huge amount of gold. They frequently sell it, even through their slippery surrogate the Intl Monetary Fund. Central banks own zero silver. So silver wins on the Supply side of the equation.

My motto is that gold fights the major political and financial war, but silver will ride in on a shiny white horse and take much larger spoils. That effect has already begun. Since the significant game changing FOMC meeting on September 21st, where the telegraph message delivered to the world financial markets was made by megaphone, the impact has been clear and stark. Compared to closing prices on September 21st versus October 29th, just five weeks, the silver price had risen from $20.64 to $24.56, up 19.0%. During the same timespan, the gold price had risen from $1274.30 to $1357.60, up 6.5%. My claim, a loose forecast often repeated, has been that the silver breakout gains would be at least double and possible triple the gold gains. We have seen exactly that in recent weeks.

An extremely fuzzy factor is the CFTC attention. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is supposedly investigating the Big Four Banks for gigantic concentrated short positions in the silver market, for naked shorting of silver, and for collusion with other banks. Commissioner Bart Chilton has made a lot of noise, but has done next to nothing. Some find encouragement, an absurd notion in my view. Let me know when court injunctions are slapped at JPMorgan. Several class action lawsuits against JPMorgan have begun, also encouraging, but unclear on substance. They crop up every couple weeks, the latest citing a RICO aspect. Let me know when the full force of the USGovt regulatory bodies order JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Bank of America to liquidate even 10-20% of their short positions. Unless and until such action occurs, the CFTC chirping is just that, noise from the managerie of obedient pets who work on short leashes at the behest of bankers. Mail room clerks do not give orders or make demands to the executive suites, not now, not ever. The regulatory chiefs are mere squires to the bankers, and will follow orders, not give them. By the way, the Big Four positions are naked short positions in all likelihood.

They are immune from posting collateral, as required by the metals exchanges. So they routinely sell a stack of silver whenever the price moves have been made, like in the wee hours this Wednesday and very early at the New York open. Good Morning New York resulted in almost a full $1.00 drop in the silver price, undoubtedly another naked short raid before the QE decision by the US Federal Reserve and its statement. The full impact of the ambush decline was reversed by afternoon. Right before important events deemed negative nasty to the USDollar, the Big Four go wild with naked shorts, called ambushes. The evidence, the trails, the fingerprints are easily seen except by blind men, official gold industry wonks, and USGovt regulators. More...
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Monday, November 1, 2010

Source Says Asians to Squeeze Silver Shorts

A King World News contact out of London has confirmed that, “Massive Asian buying is going to squeeze the shorts in the silver market. Any reactions in the price of silver will be heavily purchased, and these buyers will take delivery of physical silver.” The source who wishes to remain anonymous agreed with Eric Sprott that this squeeze could take the price of silver to $50 in a matter of months.

I have recently been discussing a coming commercial signal failure with John Embry, James Turk and Eric Sprott. As previously mentioned, this is an extremely rare event but when it occurs it is a sight to behold. More...
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