Average price of new car hits record

The average transaction price for a new vehicle set a record of $31,252 in August, according to TrueCar.com, up 3.2% from a year ago.

The new high is up 0.5%, or $164, from July, the auto data research and shopping site reports.

The record was powered by five car companies that each had record prices in the month: Chrysler, Ford, Honda, Nissan and Volkswagen.

TrueCar's transaction price is meant to include everything – price of the vehicle, discounts, add-ons, taxes and license fees – all the amounts that total to the out-the-door price. Read more >>

Gold, Silver, and Hyperinflation

English: The Obverse of the 2009 Zimbabwe $100 trillion banknote. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Most commentators in the precious metals sector still are not treating hyperinflation as a likely scenario -- as “competitive devaluation” continues to relentlessly drive all of this paper to zero. I can prove this. How? Because these commentators continue to issue (long term) “price targets” for gold and silver.

Indeed, many articles discuss “revaluing” gold at some arbitrary number as some Final Solution to fix these broken markets. Revaluing? Clearly a reminder of the definition of hyperinflation is in order.

Paper goes to zero (near-zero). Prices for hard assets go to infinity (near-infinity). Not “5,000.” Not “10,000.” Not even “100,000.” We are no longer talking about “high prices.” We are talking about Zimbabwe prices.

(Western) money-printing is increasing exponentially. Sovereign debt amongst these Western Deadbeat Debtors is increasing exponentially. Exponential curves only have one, possible ending: things blow up. The explosion of sovereign debt will (must) result in debt-default – and Debt Jubilee. The explosion of money-printing will (must) result in full-fledged hyperinflation. Read more >>

No Food Inflation? Take a 2nd Look

One of the great mysteries of the whole easing era — the past five years of unprecedented intervention and activism orchestrated by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke — is that it hasn't led to rampant inflation...at least not yet.

While economists routinely strip out food and fuel when they look at pricing data to derive what they call a "core" figure, even the all-in figure has been eerily benign lately. The March consumer price index, or CPI, just released this morning, showed a 0.2% drop. But within the data, food prices remained flat, while the prior report showed a 1.6% increase in the food index over the past 12 months.

This "paltry" increase in food prices got Nick Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx Group, thinking. What if the items in the government's basket were different than what real consumers actually buy? As Colas explains in the attached video, so-called "shopping cart inflation" is anything but benign. "The things that people most commonly shop for are increasing in price much more quickly than that CPI basket inflation number we're used to seeing," says Colas, singling out the spike in staples such as lettuce (+24%) and apples (+11%) in a recent note to clients.

Part of the problem, he says, is due to the drought last summer. While that might seem like old news at this point, Colas says it will "have a very long shadow" on food prices this year, as the ripple effect from costlier corn and grains makes its way through animal feed and on to meat prices. All in, Colas sees the food component rising 3% to 4% this year, but warns that what people eat will have a big impact on how much they spend. Read more >>

World food price surge to spell disaster for poorest

Next year will prove to be a very difficult one for the hungry. World food stocks have fallen to dangerously low levels.

The UN estimates there will be 5.5% less wheat on the world market in 2013.
If the world experiences another shock, such as the droughts experienced in the US and Russia this year, 2013 could prove to be catastrophic for those who already struggle to feed themselves and their families.

The world's poorest people spend between 50% and 90% of their income on food, compared with just 10%-15% in developed countries.

Even a small price increase will mean families are forced to take their children out of school, sell possessions, or go without vital medicines in order to put food on the table.

Putting a stop to the pending food price crisis requires a radical new approach to the way we grow and manage food. Read more >>

With Farm Bill Stalled, Consumers May Face Soaring Milk Prices

Forget the fiscal crisis and the automatic budget cuts. Come Jan. 1, there is a threat that milk prices could rise to $6 to $8 a gallon if Congress does not pass a new farm bill that amends farm policy dating back to the Truman presidency.

Lost in the political standoff between the Obama administration and Congressional Republicans over the budget is a virtually forgotten impasse over a farm bill that covers billions of dollars in agriculture programs. Without last-minute Congressional action, the government would have to follow an antiquated 1949 farm law that would force Washington to buy milk at wildly inflated prices, creating higher prices in the dairy case. Milk now costs an average of $3.65 a gallon.

Higher prices would be based on what dairy farm production costs were in 1949, when milk production was almost all done by hand. Because of adjustments for inflation and other technical formulas, the government would be forced by law to buy milk at roughly twice the current market prices to maintain a stable milk market. Read more >>

Corn inventory drops to eight-year low

The country's corn, soybean and wheat inventory fell steeply from last year, according to a report released Friday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. In its latest grain survey, the agency reported that as of Sept. 1, old corn stocks -- grain harvested last year -- totaled 988 million bushels, a decline of 12% from the same time last year. That is the lowest level since 2004.

Shortly after the survey was released, corn futures prices jumped by the 40-cent limit on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Friday, with delivery for December corn at $7.56 per bushel.

Prices were already high as the worst drought in decades has decimated the country's corn crop. In August, corn futures rose to a record high of $8.49 per bushel. But prices eased after the Midwest saw some rainfall. Read more >>

World on track for record food prices 'within a year' due to US drought

They are being driven upwards by the climb in grain and oilseed prices as US crops weather the country's worst drought since 1936, while the farming belts of Russia and South America suffer through similar water shortages. What we are seeing represents the third major rally in global grain and oilseed prices in just half a decade.

Worse is to come, new research warns. World food prices look set to hit an all-time high in the first quarter of next year – and then keep rising, according to the analysis from Rabobank, a specialist in agricultural commodities. By June 2013, the basket of food prices tracked by the United Nations could climb 15pc from current levels, according to the bank's analysts.

"The coming year will see the world economy re-enter a period of agflation as grain and oilseed stocks decline to critically low levels, pushing the FAO [Food and Agricultural Organisation] Food Price Index above record nominal highs set in February 2011," they say. Read more >>

Stagflation in Extremis & The Explosive Rise of Gold

Stagflation is where economic growth slows, unemployment is high and prices rise. Stagflation’s appearance in the 1970s was like an outbreak of three-headed children. It wasn’t supposed to happen. Prevailing wisdom - an oxymoron among economists - held that high employment and rising prices were economic handmaidens; and that, conversely, slowing economies and inflation were mutually exclusive.

In the 1970s, for the first time in capitalism’s history stagflation appeared, i.e. prices rose and economic growth stagnated; and, while economists would search for reasons to explain the apparently inexplicable, it was only because they avoided the obvious that they did not find the answer.

In August 1971, President Nixon upon the advice of Milton Friedman - the same Milton Friedman who erroneously taught Ben Bernanke economic contractions can be reversed by monetary expansion - ended the convertibility of the US dollar to gold.

The consequences of cutting ties between paper money and gold were not what Friedman expected. Friedman believed - belief is the operant word here - that ‘free-market forces’ would bring floating currencies into orderly market-driven valuations. Friedman was wrong - again. Read more >>

Mass slaughter of millions of farm animals worldwide set to push food prices up 14%

The mass slaughter of millions of farm animals across the world is expected to push food prices to their highest ever levels. As well as hitting consumers' pockets, the predicted 14% jump in food prices will also dash the Bank of England's hopes of pushing inflation down to 2% by next year.

Farmers across the world have begun a mass slaughter of their pig and cattle herds because they cannot afford the cost of feed, which has soared following the worst US drought in living memory, according to a report published on Wednesday. Experts at investment bank Rabobank warn that the mass "herd liquidation" will contribute to a 14% jump in the price of the average basket of food by next summer.

On Tuesday, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) said lower food prices had help bring inflation down to 2.5% in August. That brings it closer to the Bank's 2% target and should help consumers who have seen their spending power shrink as wages fail to match inflation. The Bank expects inflation to ease below the 2% target by early next year, but that could be scuppered by rising food, oil and commodity prices. Read more >>

How 'Everyday Low Prices' Are Costing Americans Their Jobs

As consumers, we welcome Walmart's (WMT) low prices. But here's the thing about these low prices -- they're doing the U.S. more harm than good. A new research report has found that low prices have actually caused unemployment to rise, and dealt a massive blow to the manufacturing sector.

Look no further than the 7 million manufacturing jobs the U.S. lost from 1980 to 2011, according to a recent research report from Demos. The report acknowledges this happened because of "a variety of complex factors." But Walmart had a bigger hand in this than most of us realize.

The problem starts with Walmart's selling point: low prices. These low prices are possible both because Walmart pays its employees low wages and because the bulk of Walmart's products are sourced from foreign factories, where raw materials and labor are cheaper.

What's more, Walmart can -- and does -- use its massive size to bully American companies whose products it sells to do the same. In fact, Levi's jeans and Master Lock "were pressured to shut their U.S. factories and moved manufacturing abroad to meet Walmart's demand for low prices," Demos said. Read more >>

Get ready to pay more for your steak

The drought that's spreading across the Midwest is already squeezing consumers, and it's only going to get worse, as the rising cost of soybeans and corn leads to higher prices for meat, peanut butter and other staples.

The price of ground beef could rise to about $2.88 per pound this year, a 4% jump from last year, when the average price per pound was $2.77, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Department of Agriculture. And if you want steak, get ready to pay 25 cents more per pound for sirloin, with the average price rising to $6.47.

Meat prices had already been moving higher, even before the drought took hold. The price of sirloin steak rose more than 15% between June 2011 and June 2012, while ground beef rose more than 8% and chicken prices increased more than 6%, according to the BLS. Beef prices may react a bit more slowly to the drought as ranchers work to manage their cattle inventory. Read more >>

Shanghai Homeowners Smash Showroom in Protest Over Falling Prices

Image by Getty Images via @daylifeA weekend scuffle in Shanghai over a drop in apartment prices adds to increasing evidence that China’s efforts to tame a surging property market are having an impact – even as it offers a hint of what could happen if the measures go too far.

A group of around 400 homeowners in Shanghai demonstrated publicly and damaged a showroom operated by their property developer after the company said it cut prices. Home buyers had wanted to speak with the developer to refund or cancel their contracts but were unsuccessful, according to local media. One report said the price cuts exceeded 25% per square meter.

The local media reports said an unspecified number of people were injured. The property developer, a unit of China Overseas Holdings Ltd., didn’t respond to requests for comment. Photos of the event showed broken glass in the sales office, homeowners marching with banners and a phalanx of police watching over. More...

Officials predict prolonged high food prices

High food prices are likely to rise even further over the next decade, putting the poor at an increasing risk of malnutrition and hunger, a world food report warned Friday.

The joint report of the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said the risk of price volatility that has hurt farmers across the globe remains high. The OECD leader came out to back France's demand for increased transparency and more regulation and public information in the farm commodities markets as a key measure to stabilize prices.

"Information is absolutely of the essence," OECD chief Angel Gurria said. "The one market that we don't know and where we have a lot of blind spots is precisely the agricultural market," where such critical information like the size of stocks remains largely hidden. More...

Food Price Increases Are Changing Global Diets

Image via WikipediaAlmost two-fifths of consumers surveyed in 17 countries said high food prices have changed their diets, with people in poorer nations hit hardest by increased costs.

More than half said they eat different food than two years ago, mainly for cost and health reasons, according to the survey of more than 16,000 people by Globescan Inc., a Toronto-based researcher, for Oxfam International. Global food prices have increased 37 percent in the past year, the United Nations says.

“Huge numbers of people, especially in the world’s poorest countries, are cutting back on the quantity or quality of the food they eat because of rising food prices,” Raymond Offenheiser, the president of the U.S. affiliate of Oxford, UK- based Oxfam, said in a news release. The results of the survey were released today.

The world’s population is forecast to jump to 9.3 billion in 2050 from an estimated 6.9 billion in 2010, requiring a 70 percent increase in food production, according to the UN. In February, when the rise in food prices peaked, the World Bank said the increased costs had pushed 44 people into “extreme poverty” in a little over half a year. More...

Wheat Fields Wilt in Drought as Parched Earth Spreads From China to Kansas

Image via WikipediaThe worst droughts in decades are wilting wheat fields from China to the U.S. to the U.K., overwhelming Russia’s return to grain markets and driving prices to the highest levels since 2008.

Parts of China, the biggest grower, had the least rain in a century, some European regions are the driest in 50 years and almost half the winter-wheat crop in the U.S., the largest exporter, is rated poor or worse. Inventory is dropping 8.8 percent, the most in five years, Rabobank International says. Prices will advance 20 percent to as high as $9.25 a bushel by Dec. 31, a Bloomberg survey of 14 analysts and traders shows.

Wheat as much as doubled in the past year as crops failed, spurring Ukraine and Russia to curb shipments and increasing the U.S. share of global sales by the most since 2004. Russia ending its export ban on July 1 and Ukraine lifting quotas may not be enough as crops wither elsewhere, fuelling gains in food prices which the United Nations says are already near a record.

“In 32 years, I’ve never seen so many problems in so many places,” said Dan Basse, the president of AgResource Co., a farm researcher in Chicago. “We’re concerned about the world story now,” said Basse, who has been studying agricultural markets since 1979 and expects prices as high as $10 this year. More...

Surging grocery prices by mid-summer

Image via WikipediaSurging wheat and corn prices could hit the items in your grocery basket by mid-summer if planting conditions across the country don't improve.

It's a case of two extremes: dry weather conditions in parts of the southern United States and in Europe have sparked fears of a supply crunch of wheat, while supplies of corn are being threatened by flooding and heavy rain in the Midwest.

Wheat futures rose for a fourth consecutive session on Thursday, and prices are up more than 10% from a week ago. Corn futures were mixed Thursday after rising for five days, and are up nearly 12% over the past week.

While it typically takes time for increases in the futures markets to translate into price hikes at grocery stores, consumers could be in serious trouble if supplies continue to dwindle and prices keep going up. More...

Investment Banks Caused, and Are Profiting From, Rising Food Prices

Image via WikipediaForeign Policy has a must-read story about the role that Goldman Sachs has played in driving up food prices globally. The story starts back in 1991, when Goldman planted the seeds of a trend that other institutions would follow, to the detriment of anyone who relies on eating food.
Or at least, anyone who eats who doesn't also have endless supplies of money.
The World Development Movement (a British organization) recently launched a campaign targeting Barclay's for its role in also profiting from higher food prices, as one of the three biggest players in the commodities markets (alongside Goldman and Morgan Stanley).
The Ecologist explains the World Development Movement's analysis of Barclays' involvement in food speculation:

Barclays could be generating as much as £340 million a year through gambling on the price of key commodity crops like coffee, sugar and wheat, the Ecologist has learnt. By creating funds to allow investors to speculate on the price of food, in the same way they would invest in the shares of a company, Barclays and others are able to bet on the price of food. However, food commodity trading is leading to higher and more volatile prices, say campaigners, which affect poor families in the less industrialised world the hardest as they can't afford basic foods and also make it more difficult for farmers to plan and invest. More...

Inflation major reason Chinese citizens losing faith in government

Image by Getty Images via @daylifeInflation in China is on track to rise. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.2% in the first 11 months of this year. In November alone, the CPI rose 5.1% year-on-year and 2% month-on-month. And the CPI increase was mainly propelled by price hikes for foodstuffs. In November, food prices rose 11.7% year-on-year. The Blue Paper says food price hikes seriously affect living standards, especially for low-income families.

A December 15 survey by the research arm of the People's Bank of China (PBoC), the country's central bank, also reached a similar conclusion.

A questionnaire given to 20,000 bank depositors in 50 cities found their satisfaction with consumer goods-prices in the last quarter of this year had dropped to the lowest level since the last quarter of 1999. About 74% of the respondents thought prices were "unbearably high". This is 16 percentage points higher than in the third quarter. Only 25% of the respondents said the current price level was "acceptable", and most respondents expected inflation to intensify.

While the Blue Paper and the PBoC survey fail to mention it explicitly, it is apparent that dissatisfaction with inflation is a major reason for people's waning confidence in their government. At the annual session of the National People's Congress (NPC) in early March, Premier Wen Jiabao set this year's target of keeping inflation under 3%. It seems certain this will be "mission impossible", as CPI was expected to go up even more for December. More...

Food prices rise sharply - and there's more to come

For the first time since 2008, inflation is hitting consumers in the stomach.

Grocery prices grew by more than 1 1/2 times the overall rate of inflation this year, outpaced only by costs of transportation and medical care, according to numbers released Wednesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Economists predict that this is only the beginning. Fueled by the higher costs of wheat, sugar, corn, soybeans and energy, shoppers could see as much as a 4 percent increase at the supermarket checkout next year.

"I noticed just this month that my grocery bill for the same old stuff - cereal, eggs, milk, orange juice, peanut butter, bread - spiked $25," said Sue Perry, deputy editor of ShopSmart magazine, a nonprofit publication from Consumer Reports. "It was a bit of sticker shock." More...

Food prices may rise by up to 20%, warns UN

The UN today warned that food prices could rise by 10%-20% next year after poor harvests and an expected rundown of global reserves. More than 70 African and Asian countries will be the worst hit, said the Food and Agricultural Organisation in its monthly report.

In its gloomiest forecast since the 2007/08 food crisis, which saw food riots in more than 25 countries and 100 million extra hungry people, the report's authors urged states to prepare for hardship.

"Countries must remain vigilant against supply shocks," the report warned. "Consumers may have little choice but to pay higher prices for their food. The size of next year's harvest becomes increasingly critical. For stocks to be replenished and prices to return to more normal levels, large production expansions are needed in 2011."

Prices of wheat, maize and many other foods traded internationally have risen by up to 40% in just a few months. Sugar, butter and cassava prices are at 30-year highs, and meat and fish are both significantly more expensive than last year. More...