Showing posts with label Government debt. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Government debt. Show all posts

Monday, July 29, 2013

Gold, Silver, and Hyperinflation

English: The Obverse of the 2009 Zimbabwe $100...
English: The Obverse of the 2009 Zimbabwe $100 trillion banknote. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Most commentators in the precious metals sector still are not treating hyperinflation as a likely scenario -- as “competitive devaluation” continues to relentlessly drive all of this paper to zero. I can prove this. How? Because these commentators continue to issue (long term) “price targets” for gold and silver.

Indeed, many articles discuss “revaluing” gold at some arbitrary number as some Final Solution to fix these broken markets. Revaluing? Clearly a reminder of the definition of hyperinflation is in order.

Paper goes to zero (near-zero). Prices for hard assets go to infinity (near-infinity). Not “5,000.” Not “10,000.” Not even “100,000.” We are no longer talking about “high prices.” We are talking about Zimbabwe prices.

(Western) money-printing is increasing exponentially. Sovereign debt amongst these Western Deadbeat Debtors is increasing exponentially. Exponential curves only have one, possible ending: things blow up. The explosion of sovereign debt will (must) result in debt-default – and Debt Jubilee. The explosion of money-printing will (must) result in full-fledged hyperinflation. Read more >>
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Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Fitch Cuts Japan Debt Rating, Outlook Negative

A series D 1000 yen note, featuring the portra...
Japan's sovereign rating was cut by one notch by Fitch on Tuesday as a political stalemate dims the chance that the country can curb its snowballing debt.

Fitch lowered Japan's long-term foreign currency rating to A plus from AA. It cut the local currency ratings to A plus from AA minus. Both were cut with a negative outlook. Fitch warned that further downgrades are possible unless the government takes new fiscal policy measures to stabilize public finances and its ratio of debt to gross domestic product.

The downgrade could serve as a chilling reminder to highly indebted countries in Europe that urgent action is needed to trim public debt and prevent concerns about sovereign debt from weighing further on the global economy. More...

Monday, April 5, 2010

Of Bonds and Bondage

VK @ The Automatic Earth
Certificates of confiscation: Of bonds and bondage
Recently I had a private conversation with Automatic Earth contributor El Gallinazo in which he proceeded to chide me for my shortcomings in viewing the stock markets only, clamoring I should focus my attention more on the debt markets, since, as he so graciously put it, "the stock market is but a pimple on the debt markets ass".

I went surfing for knowledge as it were and noted the value of the world's stock markets as of November 2009 was about $44.2 trillion (That's a pretty big pimple!) while global debt markets were valued at $82.3 trillion.

What does this mean? I got out my notes on the debt market from my days not so long ago in University. And came across many long forgotten concepts: par values, coupon rates, zero coupon bonds, basic bond pricing, duration, convexity, credit risks,inverted price yield relationships etc. Aaaarrgggh!! Enough to make my head spin. Too much jargon is bad for you.

Then I stumbled upon a little line: Indenture: Agreement containing the terms under which money is borrowed.

That's what they call bond contracts. Indenture. According to the dictionary, or in this case a convenient google search, Indenture refers to a type of contract in the past that forced a servant or apprentice to work for their employer for a particular period of time.

What struck me was how true this is, not referencing past shenanigans, but present day reality. Society as we know it is indentured, we are virtual debt slaves, servants of our corporate and political elites.

Every time a sovereign, municipal or corporate bond is sold somewhere, every time you hear the national debt going up, that's a piece of you being sold off. There's nothing more to the bond market, nothing less. Human beings are being lined up on the chopping block, sold to the highest bidder, for a price.The future of their children and their hopes and dreams sold at a price determined by a large market for human debt slaves. A modern day global debt gulag if you ask me.

If you work for a corporation, the private debt issued by them promises to extract everything from you while they can milk you for all that you are worth. If the debt is issued by your country or town, the promise is to extract everything necessary to pay up from your you and your children.

Hence, in today's world, there are multiple claims on you, your life, your children and your hopes, dreams and ambitions, as well as theirs. The elites through various frauds, machinations, complex algorithms and at its heart plain greed for unbridled power have bundled you into little packages and sold you off many times over to the point that there are claims on your life, your soul and its third derivative.

Which brings me to the monster $1000+ trillion derivatives market (Exchange Traded + Over The Counter), which has been to a large extent built (leveraged) on top of the $44.2 trillion stock markets and $82.3 trillion debt markets.

At least in the pre-derivatives era a human life had been reduced to the value of the cash flow it produced over its lifetime, conveniently called Net Present Value.

In today's world, a human life has been further reduced to and by bets being played on a global video game network much like Call of Duty/ World of Warcraft, except in this case, you can't opt out nor can you log off. The consequences are very real, the outcome of suffering is inevitable. There is no reset button.

I can understand cattle not having a complex enough awareness to be able to judge their own imminent demise at the slaughter house, but people? Why, they have no excuse at all, we are a real tragi-comic bunch. Not only do we elect our herders and executioners i.e. politicians, we elect them with cheer, pomp and adulation, we also commend their choice of weapon, in this case being debt to wave away whatever happens to ail us. Debt, the very thing that we are slowly but surely being slashed with. Death by a thousand cuts if you will.

What will you tell your children? What excuse have you prepared? The numbers were too big? Economics is really confusing? I didn't realize I was selling you off at an auction? You'd almost think we're all delusional Catholics, sending our children to schools where they can be molested by hordes of conniving predators who, when pressed, won't shy away from calling themselves the victims. The Vatican and Goldman Sachs have way more in common than just the fact that both swim in luxury.

Next time you read that the National Debt has gone up by $1,600,000,000,000, that total debt owed by the US internally and externally is $54 trillion, that there are $65-100 trillion in unfunded liabilities, one thing I hope you take from this little rant is that you and your family are on the hook for all this debt owed to Kings and psychopaths, bankster mafia elites and drug lords with Caribbean accounts. I hope you also realize that they've decided to feast on your children with a sprinkling of shattered futures, dreams and hopes.

I'll sign off with The Automatic Earth's Ilargi's saying, "Tails you lose. Heads you die." Now that's a bet you never should have taken.

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

States Use Fraud and Thievery to Mask Debt and Plug Holes

State Debt Woes Grow Too Big to Camouflage

By MARY WILLIAMS WALSH
California, New York and other states are showing many of the same signs of debt overload that recently took Greece to the brink — budgets that will not balance, accounting that masks debt, the use of derivatives to plug holes, and armies of retired public workers who are counting on benefits that are proving harder and harder to pay.

And states are responding in sometimes desperate ways, raising concerns that they, too, could face a debt crisis.

New Hampshire was recently ordered by its State Supreme Court to put back $110 million that it took from a medical malpractice insurance pool to balance its budget. Colorado tried, so far unsuccessfully, to grab a $500 million surplus from Pinnacol Assurance, a state workers’ compensation insurer that was privatized in 2002. It wanted the money for its university system and seems likely to get a lesser amount, perhaps $200 million.

Connecticut has tried to issue its own accounting rules. Hawaii has inaugurated a four-day school week. California accelerated its corporate income tax this year, making companies pay 70 percent of their 2010 taxes by June 15. And many states have balanced their budgets with federal health care dollars that Congress has not yet appropriated.

Some economists fear the states have a potentially bigger problem than their recession-induced budget woes. If investors become reluctant to buy the states’ debt, the result could be a credit squeeze, not entirely different from the financial strains in Europe, where markets were reluctant to refinance billions in Greek debt.

“If we ran into a situation where one state got into trouble, they’d be bailed out six ways from Tuesday,” said Kenneth S. Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard and a former research director of the International Monetary Fund. “But if we have a situation where there’s slow growth, and a bunch of cities and states are on the edge, like in Europe, we will have trouble.”

California’s stated debt — the value of all its bonds outstanding — looks manageable, at just 8 percent of its total economy. But California has big unstated debts, too. If the fair value of the shortfall in California’s big pension fund is counted, for instance, the state’s debt burden more than quadruples, to 37 percent of its economic output, according to one calculation.

The state’s economy will also be weighed down by the ballooning federal debt, though California does not have to worry about those payments as much as its taxpaying citizens and businesses do.

Unstated debts pose a bigger problem to states with smaller economies. If Rhode Island were a country, the fair value of its pension debt would push it outside the maximum permitted by the euro zone, which tries to limit government debt to 60 percent of gross domestic product, according to Andrew Biggs, an economist with the American Enterprise Institute who has been analyzing state debt. Alaska would not qualify either.

State officials say a Greece-style financial crisis is a complete nonissue for them, and the bond markets so far seem to agree. All 50 states have investment-grade credit ratings, with California the lowest, and even California is still considered “average,” according to Moody’s Investors Service. The last state that defaulted on its bonds, Arkansas, did so during the Great Depression.

Goldman Sachs, in a research report last week, acknowledged the pension issue but concluded the states were very unlikely to default on their debt and noted the states had 30 years to close pension shortfalls.

Even though about $5 billion of municipal bonds are in default today, the vast majority were issued by small local authorities in boom-and-bust locations like Florida, said Matt Fabian, managing director of Municipal Market Advisors, an independent consulting firm. The issuers raised money to pay for projects like sewer connections and new roads in subdivisions that collapsed in the subprime mortgage disaster.

The states, he said, are different. They learned a lesson from New York City, which got into trouble in the 1970s by financing its operations with short-term debt that had to be rolled over again and again. When investors suddenly lost confidence, New York was left empty-handed. To keep that from happening again, Mr. Fabian said, most states require short-term debt to be fully repaid the same year it is issued.

Some states have taken even more forceful measures to build creditor confidence. New York State has a trustee that intercepts tax revenues and makes some bond payments before the state can get to the money. California has a “continuous appropriation” for debt payments, so bondholders know they will get their interest even when the budget is hamstrung.

The states can also take refuge in America’s federalist system. Thus, if California were to get into hot water, it could seek assistance in Washington, and probably come away with some funds. Already, the federal government is spending hundreds of millions helping the states issue their bonds.

Professor Rogoff, who has spent most of his career studying global debt crises, has combed through several centuries’ worth of records with a fellow economist, Carmen M. Reinhart of the University of Maryland, looking for signs that a country was about to default.

One finding was that countries “can default on stunningly small amounts of debt,” he said, perhaps just one-fourth of what stopped Greece in its tracks. “The fact that the states’ debts aren’t as big as Greece’s doesn’t mean it can’t happen.”

Also, officials and their lenders often refused to admit they had a debt problem until too late. More...

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Half of Europe Veering Towards Bankrputcy

TERENCE ROTH -WSJ
After two years of crashing banking systems and economic recession, the euro zone enters 2010 with a full-blown debt crisis.

The European Commission warns that public finances in half of the 16 euro-zone nations are at high risk of becoming unsustainable.

Chartbook: Euro Zone at Risk

Half of the 16 euro-zone countries are deemed to be at "high risk" in terms of the sustainability of their public finances. See an overview of each country's economic data.

Governments will spend the next year and beyond balancing the urgent need to fix public-sector debt and deficits -- without imperiling what appears to be a feeble economic recovery.

Even the staunchest optimists in Brussels and Frankfurt see a rocky process, with rating firms poised for more downgrades and bond markets meting out daily judgment over how governments are doing.

Greece and Spain saw their ratings downgraded. Ireland and Portugal have been warned they could be next. Even broader downgrades threaten if other European governments don't shape up.

Fitch warns in a December report that particularly the U.K. (which isn't in the euro zone) and Spain and France (which are) risk being downgraded if they don't articulate more-credible fiscal-consolidation programs during the coming year given the pace of fiscal deterioration.

With the young currency bloc facing the first major test of its fiscal reliability, financial markets are hedging their bets.

The euro ended 2009 slipping off its highs for the year and bank stocks were sliding on perceptions that their government-bond holdings could lose value. Economists worry the fiscal damage could take years to repair. The recession that has gripped the euro zone since mid-2008 collapsed tax revenues and sent welfare costs soaring.

Billions of euros dedicated to fiscal-stimulus plans and bank bailouts completed the devastation to government finances.

Investors also worry about the danger of a "double dip" European recession if governments get the timing and pace of budget consolidation wrong and choke off the recovery.

That prospect comes alongside concerns of more ratings downgrades and higher default risk if governments act too slowly.

Budget deficits for the region as whole in 2009 swelled to 6.4% of gross domestic product from 2% the year before. The EU forecast sees that gap widening to nearly 7% in 2010 before the worst is over.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet says he worries that runaway government borrowing could undermine his ability to hold down inflation, and wasted no opportunity to cajole governments back into line. But ECB officials also acknowledge that countries such as Greece and Spain may need to move earlier in reducing deficits and the amount of debt flooding European bond markets.

By contrast, Germany and France will increase spending to add fresh fiscal stimulus in 2010, in France's case swelling its budget gap to more than 8% of GDP next year, according to EU projections. The concern in Berlin and Paris is that rising unemployment, a lagging indicator that continues to rise in the early stages of recovery, will do enough to limit domestic demand without the governments also turning off the taps too early.

The fiscal juggling acts within a multinational currency union frame the test that worried skeptics before the euro's launch a decade ago.

They said a monetary union unsupplemented by a political union risked a fiscal free-for-all among governments, especially in a full-blown recession. The next year will be a good time to prove them wrong.

The focus in early 2010 will remain on Greece and its budget deficit at 12.7% of GDP, four times the EU limit. The Greek government is trying to hammer together a political consensus in parliament for a plan to bring down public spending without triggering more social unrest seen in the country's streets at the close of 2009.

Europe has told Athens that it has to get itself into shape without outside help. Not many Europe watchers believe the euro zone would allow one of its own to go into default, discrediting the euro currency and the philosophy of a monetary commonwealth behind it.

If things did get that far, euro-zone governments would be expected to rush in with a rescue plan to absorb some of Greece's debt, or issue guarantees.

As if to cover all possibilities, ECB legal counsel Phoebus Athanassiou in December discussed in a working paper how and under what conditions a euro-zone country might withdraw or be expelled from the currency union.

But Brussels is still taking a hard line. The European Commission, in its latest quarterly economic report issued in December, said the strong reaction in financial markets to signs of fiscal laxness highlights the priority of getting a handle on runaway government spending.

It called Greece "a source of serious concern," but urged other member states to bring public finances into sustainable parameters of borrowing and debt.

The ECB is equally unforgiving. "One has to be very clear: The ECB has no mandate or intention to take into account the situation of a specific country, especially not with regard to public finances," Ewald Nowotny, the Austrian member of the ECB's Governing Council, said in a December interview with The Wall Street Journal.

That leaves it up to national leaders to take the pain to the people with varying combinations of more taxes, deeper spending cuts and scaled-back social programs. The tale of what Europe's big fiscal crackdown will look like, and how it will be received, will unfold over the next two years. The first chapter in Europe's big fiscal crackdown comes in January, when Greece is due to submit what is expected to be a radical fiscal overhaul.

Write to Terence Roth at terence.roth@wsj.com

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Credit Rating Agency Scam and Latest Dollar Rally

AL MARTIN via conspiracyplanet.com
The deteriorated credit ratings of sovereign debt, especially as we see it in Dubai, Greece and Ukraine, etc., has rankled global equity markets.

This has also driven money into the US Dollar and is primarily responsible for the recent rally we've seen in the Dollar.

Sovereign debt is the debt of foreign nations, Second and Third World governments, denominated in a currency other than its own, to wit US Dollars, Yen, Pounds or Euros.

This sovereign debt has been sold and is payable in a currency other than that of the issuing country.

Usually the largest amount of sovereign debt outstanding is denominated in US Dollars and Japanese Yen.

So what does the credit rating downgrade of the government debt of Greece and Dubai debt really mean?

This is a problem which everyone knows about, but which has been, until recently, successfully hidden by what I call the Wanton Bullish Shills in the media.

Credit ratings agencies, like Standard & Poors, Moody's and Fitch's, are being disingenuous at best regarding their rating system.

They are independent for-profit corporations, yet they masquerade as allegedly objective credit ratings agencies in a monopolistic role deciding what is "credit-worthy” or not.

The problem with the credit rating agencies is the inherent conflict of interests and since there are only three of them, universally recognized by the central banks, the IMF, BIS, etc., they can get away with it.

The credibility of the credit rating agencies has obviously been hurt because they dragged their feet in downgrading Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and Collateralised Debt Obligations (CDOs) in 2007-2008.

The credit quality of that debt was obviously deteriorating, and it also pointed out the flaws in the credit rating agencies, namely that they are paid by the very same issuers of the debt they are rating.

The principal problem is that every effort that the Democrats have made to make the ratings agencies truly independent by either making them some sort of quasi-government entity, or by creating a so-called payment pool, or even a securities transaction tax that would be paid by the industry into a common pot that would then be managed by either the FDIC or SIPC, which in turn would pay the credit rating agency.

That would remove the direct connection between the issuers of securities and the credit rating agencies who are rating them. Every effort to make them more independent has been stifled by the Republicans.

And what about the weakness in the credit ratings of the sovereign debt of Greece and Ukraine? The agencies had been warning for the last half of 2009 that problems were coming in the Greek, Hungarian, Latvian, Ukrainian, etc. economies. They had acted to downgrade the sovereign debt of these nation-states.

In fact now Moodys, Standard and Poors and Fitch's have a total of 37 nation-states on their downgrade list. These are not Third World nation states, whose credit quality is perennially "junk" status anyway. What has become more troublesome is the sharp deterioration in the credit quality of so-called Second World nation state issuers as well. This would include Spain, Iceland, Greece Hungary etc.

At the same time, the credit rating agencies have also been warning First World nation-states like the United States and Britain that they can also lose their AAA credit ratings if they do not rein in their budget deficits.

Japan has also received similar warnings since the Japanese are now running a debt to GDP ratio of about 130%.

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Thursday, December 10, 2009

Greece Bankruptcy Could Doom Euro

Dan Weil
Greece’s debt has just been downgraded, and experts say that if the country goes belly up, the euro could be in big trouble.

"The Greek problem will be an acid test for the currency union," a senior German government official told German magazine Der Spiegel.

Fitch Ratings cut Greece’s credit rating to BBB+, the third-lowest investment grade.

Meanwhile, Standard & Poor's placed Greece's A- rating on watch for a possible downgrade, meaning it could be slashed within 60 days.

Greece is the lowest-rated country in the euro zone.

“Volatility is likely to continue for some time,” analysts at Barclays Capital wrote in a note to clients.

Greece is struggling with a weak economy and a massive debt burden.

The economy contracted 1.7 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, and the budget deficit totals 12.7 percent of GDP.

While the government has plans to cut the gap, many analysts are skeptical.

"The likely rise in public debt to more than 120 percent of GDP next year and further to 125 percent in 2011 would leave the public finances highly exposed to shocks," Fitch analysts wrote in their report.

Experts are concerned that a Greek bankruptcy could spread to other countries in Europe.

“Greece is a whole lot more important than Dubai,” Uri Landesman, a fund manager at ING Investment Management, told Bloomberg.

“There are a lot of banks, in Europe especially, that have exposure to Greece.”

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet has said the euro-zone economy faces a rough road to recovery.

"The real economy is back to growth but we don't declare it (crisis) over. It is a bumpy road ahead, we have the sentiment that growth remains modest and we have to remain alert," Trichet said in an interview with the Europarltv, a television channel of the European Parliament.

Friday, November 27, 2009

Dubai is just a harbinger of things to come for sovereign debt

Jeremy Warner
Telegraph
Watch out. This may be just the beginning. In the scale of things, the debt problems of Dubai are little more than a flea bite. Dubai’s sovereign debts total “just” $80bn, which counts for nothing against the trillions being raised by advanced economies to plug fiscal deficits.

Small wonder, though, that this minor tremor has sent such shock waves around the wider capital markets. The fear is that threatened default in this tiny desert kingdom is just a harginger of things to come for government debt markets as a whole. According to new estimates by Moody’s, the credit rating agency, the total stock of sovereign debt worldwide will have risen by nearly 50 per cent between 2007 and 2010 to $15.3 trillion. The great bulk of this increase comes not from irrelevant little states like Dubai, but from the big advanced economies – America, Europe, and Japan.

Perversely, they are for the time being beneficiaries of the “flight to safety” that trouble in Dubai has sparked. Government bond yields in the major advanced economies have fallen in response to the crisis in the Gulf. If experience of the banking crisis, when investors removed their money from one bank only to find that the one they had put it into looked just as dodgy, is anything to go by, this effect will not last.

Up until now, markets have assumed that the ruinous fiscal cost of addressing the financial and economic crisis was probably just about affordable to the major economies. That view may be about to be challenged.

I’m going to be writing more about the fallout for Dubai and its implications for the advanced economies in tomorrow’s paper.

Monday, November 23, 2009

Credit Default Swaps Linked to US, UK and Japan Double

David Oakley
Bets rise on rich country bond defaults
The mounting level of debt in the industrialised world is prompting a growing number of investors to use the derivatives market to bet on the chance of rich governments defaulting on bonds.

Public debt and CDS volumesThe volume of activity in sovereign credit default swaps – which measure the cost to insure against bond defaults – linked to the US, UK and Japan have doubled in the past year because of concerns about their public finances.

CDS volumes for Italy, which has one of the highest debt burdens of the developed economies, are now the highest for an individual country, according to the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation.

In contrast, the outstanding volume of CDS linked to emerging nations such as Russia, Brazil, Ukraine and Indonesia have been flat or fallen in the past 12 months as investors have become less interested in trading the risks of those countries.

In the past, the CDS market for developed countries was sluggish, because few investors saw the need to buy or sell protection against a risk of default that seemed exceedingly remote.

However, rising debt levels and growing political and economic uncertainty have created a more active market, with more investors now seeking insurance. Meanwhile, many banks are prepared to offer protection in exchange for a fee.

This fee has recently jumped, since the cost to insure the debt of developed countries has increased since the summer of last year, while the cost of insuring emerging market debt has fallen.

Gary Jenkins, head of fixed income research at Evolution, said: “The biggest single risk hanging over the bond markets is the rapid rise in public debt in the industrialised world.

“If we get to a point where the market thinks the levels of debt are unsustainable, then we will see an almighty sell-off in the government bond markets, with yields soaring. Governments need to take action to cut deficits and debt.”

Fitch Solutions, the data arm of the Fitch Group, said that there was almost as much uncertainty in the CDS market about the outlook for the developed economies and their bond markets as there was for emerging economies.

Comparisons between Italy and Brazil are often used by strategists as an example of the contrasting fortunes of the developed and emerging world.

Italy’s ratio of debt to gross domestic product is forecast to rise to 127.3 per cent in 2010.

On the other hand, Brazil’s debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to stabilise at 65.4 per cent in 2010.

Nigel Rendell, senior emerging markets strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said: “It is not surprising that investors are increasingly worried about debt in the industrialised world. Debt to GDP of more than 100 per cent is difficult to sustain.”

Thursday, November 19, 2009

French bank warns clients to prepare for global collapse

Société Générale has advised clients to be ready for a possible "global economic collapse" over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
In a report entitled "Worst-case debt scenario", the bank's asset team said state rescue packages over the last year have merely transferred private liabilities onto sagging sovereign shoulders, creating a fresh set of problems.

Overall debt is still far too high in almost all rich economies as a share of GDP (350pc in the US), whether public or private. It must be reduced by the hard slog of "deleveraging", for years.

"As yet, nobody can say with any certainty whether we have in fact escaped the prospect of a global economic collapse," said the 68-page report, headed by asset chief Daniel Fermon. It is an exploration of the dangers, not a forecast.

Under the French bank's "Bear Case" scenario, the dollar would slide further and global equities would retest the March lows. Property prices would tumble again. Oil would fall back to $50 in 2010.

Governments have already shot their fiscal bolts. Even without fresh spending, public debt would explode within two years to 105pc of GDP in the UK, 125pc in the US and the eurozone, and 270pc in Japan. Worldwide state debt would reach $45 trillion, up two-and-a-half times in a decade.

(UK figures look low because debt started from a low base. Mr Ferman said the UK would converge with Europe at 130pc of GDP by 2015 under the bear case).

The underlying debt burden is greater than it was after the Second World War, when nominal levels looked similar. Ageing populations will make it harder to erode debt through growth. "High public debt looks entirely unsustainable in the long run. We have almost reached a point of no return for government debt," it said.

Inflating debt away might be seen by some governments as a lesser of evils.

If so, gold would go "up, and up, and up" as the only safe haven from fiat paper money. Private debt is also crippling. Even if the US savings rate stabilises at 7pc, and all of it is used to pay down debt, it will still take nine years for households to reduce debt/income ratios to the safe levels of the 1980s.

The bank said the current crisis displays "compelling similarities" with Japan during its Lost Decade (or two), with a big difference: Japan was able to stay afloat by exporting into a robust global economy and by letting the yen fall. It is not possible for half the world to pursue this strategy at the same time.

SocGen advises bears to sell the dollar and to "short" cyclical equities such as technology, auto, and travel to avoid being caught in the "inherent deflationary spiral". Emerging markets would not be spared. Paradoxically, they are more leveraged to the US growth than Wall Street itself. Farm commodities would hold up well, led by sugar.

Mr Fermon said junk bonds would lose 31pc of their value in 2010 alone. However, sovereign bonds would "generate turbo-charged returns" mimicking the secular slide in yields seen in Japan as the slump ground on. At one point Japan's 10-year yield dropped to 0.40pc. The Fed would hold down yields by purchasing more bonds. The European Central Bank would do less, for political reasons.

SocGen's case for buying sovereign bonds is controversial. A number of funds doubt whether the Japan scenario will be repeated, not least because Tokyo itself may be on the cusp of a debt compound crisis.

Mr Fermon said his report had electrified clients on both sides of the Atlantic. "Everybody wants to know what the impact will be. A lot of hedge funds and bankers are worried," he said.

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Saturday, October 17, 2009

Thomas Greco’s “The End of Money and the Future of Civilization”: A Review by Richard C. Cook

Economy of American SamoaImage via Wikipedia

Richard C. Cook

It’s too late for anyone to pretend that the U.S. government, whether under President Barack Obama or anyone else, can divert our nation from long-term economic decline. The U.S. is increasingly in a state of political, economic, and moral paralysis, caught as it were between the “rock” of protracted recession and the “hard place” of terminal government debt.

Even if the stock market can be shored up by more government borrowing for “stimulus” spending, it’s a temporary reprieve, because nothing can bring back the consumer purchasing power that was lost when the banks stopped pumping money into the economy through out-of-control mortgage lending. We simply no longer have the job base for people to earn the income they need to live.

The underlying cause of the crisis is in fact the debt-based monetary system, whereby the U.S. ruling class long ago sold out our nation and its people to the international banking cartel of which the Rockefeller and Morgan interests have been the chief representatives for over a century. It was lending on a previously unheard of scale for overpriced assets to people and businesses unable to repay that created the bubbles that burst in 2008, not only in the housing market but also in such areas as commercial real estate, equities, commodities, and derivatives. It was an explosion that reverberated throughout the world.

The Obama administration’s response to the crisis has been to print Treasury bonds both for the financial system bailouts and the sputtering Keynesian stimulus that so far has gone substantially into military infrastructure. This bond bubble is what I have referred to as “Obama’s Last Picture Show.” http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=12512

Government debt is fundamentally inflationary. For a generation, the U.S. dollar has been inflating at an increasing rate, with the economy being kept in a growth posture by selling our debt instruments abroad or allowing foreigners holding dollars to purchase property and other assets on our own soil. The website EconomyinCrisis.org reports that in 2007, the most recent year for which data are available, “foreign entities spent $267.8 billion to acquire or establish U.S. businesses.” http://www.economyincrisis.org/articles/show/2801

Foreigners are spending their dollars as fast as possible, because they are now plummeting in value. It’s increasingly clear that sooner rather than later, the dollar will be dumped by foreign purchasers of bonds, particularly China, and possibly even the oil-producing nations.

These nations know full well that bonds denominated in dollars can never be completely repaid, even if the bonds can be rolled over into fresh debt. It’s this dynamic that is dragging the U.S. economy to the cliff, because real economic growth stopped long ago when our manufacturing jobs were exported. This is because most of the growth since Ronald Reagan was elected president in 1980 has been only on paper through financial bubbles. This included the dot.com bubble of the Clinton years that blew up in 2000-2001.

Now, after the Treasury bond bubble of 2009, there is nothing left in America to inflate. With so many jobs gone, the American family home was the last thing of value we owned.

So the air is going out of the tires. Americans who are struggling to work for a living are passive spectators as their jobs, savings, health insurance, pensions, and homes continue to erode in value or even disappear. Last Sunday the Washington Post reported a massive crisis in state and local government pensions. Reporter David Cho wrote, “The financial crisis has blown a hole in the rosy forecasts of pension funds that cover teachers, police officers and other government employees, casting into doubt as never before whether these public systems will be able to keep their promises to future generations of retirees.”

So what, if anything, can be done about it?

Well, the first thing an intelligent physician does is diagnose the disease. Thomas Greco, in his new book The End of Money and the Future of Civilization (Chelsea Green: 2009) , outlines the increasingly familiar story of how things got so bad, and he tells it as well as anyone has ever done. His style is precise and sometimes academic. Behind it, though, is a passion for truth and the type of rock-solid integrity that refuses to sugar-coat a very bitter pill.

More than that, Greco writes about how to change what has gone wrong. His credentials as an engineer, college professor, author, and consultant are impeccable. His book is among the most important written in this decade. It is truly a book that can alter the world and, if taken seriously, give large numbers of people a practical way to survive the gathering catastrophe.

But unlike most commentators, what Greco offers is not another phony prescription for what the financiers and government should do for us, whether through “restarting” lending or another round of stimulus spending. Rather it’s what we should do for ourselves, and could do much better, if we understood what to do and if big banking and big government just got out of the way.

As I said, at the root is the monetary system, whose failure cannot be understood without a history lesson. So Greco writes about the struggle between banking and democracy that took place in the 1790s when the ink on our new national constitution was barely dry.

It was Alexander Hamilton, the first secretary of the treasury, who compromised the new nation, through what he admitted was “corruption,” by giving the wealthy speculators in Revolutionary War bonds the benefit of federally-sponsored redemption and then by establishing the First Bank of the United States. This early drift toward elitist rule was opposed by Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and others who figured in the creation of what later became the Democratic Party.

Greco writes: “While Jefferson favored a stronger union than that which emerged under the Articles of Confederation, he was vehemently opposed to the reconstruction of monarchic government on the American continent.” Hamilton had said frankly that the British monarchy was the best system of government known to man. Part of the monarchic system was the Bank of England, which Hamilton copied when setting up the First Bank.

But Jefferson, who repudiated Hamilton’s elitist platform, was elected president in what was then called “The Revolution of 1800.” Congress refused to renew the Bank’s charter by a single vote when it was up for renewal in 1811.

But the Second Bank of the United States was chartered in 1816 due to the government debt left behind from the War of 1812 against Great Britain. Thus was set up what became known as the “Bank War.”

It was President Andrew Jackson who dethroned the bankers from power by pulling government funds out of the Second Bank in 1833. Greco writes that in Jackson’s view: “The ‘Bank War’ was a contest for rulership—would the United States be governed by the people through their elected president and representatives, or by an unelected financial elite through their central bank instrument?”

The modern takeover began in earnest during the Civil War when Congress passed the National Banking Acts in 1863-64 which mandated use of government bonds as bank lending reserves, thereby creating a direct linkage between bank profits and the debt the government was starting to load on the shoulders of taxpayers.

The nation’s fate was sealed with the passage of the Federal Reserve Act in 1913. The deal was that the bankers would control the currency, and thereby the nation’s economy, while the government would be provided with an unlimited amount of inflated dollars to fight its wars.

The bookkeeper’s trick of creating money out of thin air, charging interest for its use, then forcing it down the throats of weaker nations by threat of violence, is what has allowed the Anglo-American empire, since the founding of the Bank of England in 1696, gradually to conquer the world. Though President Woodrow Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act into law, he saw what that action meant. Greco cites Wilson as writing: “There has come about an extraordinary and very sinister concentration in the control of business in the country….The great monopoly in this country is the monopoly of big credits.”

Among other ill effects, the system has ruined the value of the currency. The inflation caused by large issues of bank-created loans is seized upon by the government which goes along because inflation reduces the cost of its deficits. Investors buy Treasury bonds denominated in Federal Reserve Notes then watch their value evaporate over time. In fact Federal Reserve Notes have lost over 95 percent of their value since they were first introduced.

Moreover, it’s additional inflation caused by bank-generated interest that drives up the costs of goods and services, forcing everyone in the economy to try to defend themselves by raising their prices to the max. Greco spells this out too, which almost every economist in the world, with the exception perhaps of Australia’s James Cumes, overlooks.

Bank interest has other tragic effects. It was high interest rates, for instance, that destroyed the Idaho potato industry. A farmer from that region told me at a conference a few years ago that when interest rates skyrocketed in the early 1980s, he asked the president of one of the Federal Reserve Banks why they did it. The answer was they were “ordered” to raise interest rates by the international banking system.

Make no mistake, it’s the banking system, facilitated by the Fed, not unwary borrowers, who brought on the collapse of 2008.

Now, in 2009, the bankers, mainly those in the U.S., have so shattered the world economy by debt mounted on debt that there may be no reprieve except the creation of a slave society based on rule by the rich over the masses of whatever peons should happen to survive the downturn and its tragic effects on employment, health, the food and water supply, and even our ability to cope with climate change.

The political establishment, expressing itself in pronouncements by organizations like the Council on Foreign Relations, see a future, not of economic democracy or increased financial pluralism, but consolidation of world currencies into a small number overseen at the top by the world’s financial oligarchy. Citing the writings of Benn Steil, the CFR’s Director of International Economics, Greco writes: “The ostensible plan is to reduce global exchange media to three—one each for Europe, the Americas, and Asia. One might reasonably suppose that at a later stage, those three would be combined into one currency also under the control of the global banking elite.”

Greco concludes: “The New World Order is upon us.”

But is it really the end, or is there a new world waiting to be born? Greco thinks so. He speaks of the end of an era when unlimited economic growth fed by massive influxes of debt-based money is no longer sustainable. He writes: “That our global civilization cannot continue on its current path seems evident….But I think our collective consciousness is beginning to change. We are becoming aware of limits and are reaching that part of our evolutionary program that says, ‘Stop!’” More...

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Government Reports Point to Fiscal Doomsday

Martin D Weiss
When our leaders have no awareness of the disastrous consequences of their actions, they can claim ignorance and take no action.

Or when our leaders have no hard evidence as to what might happen in the future, they can at least claim uncertainty.

But when they have full knowledge of an impending disaster ... they have proof of its inevitability in ANY scenario ... and they so declare in their official reports ... but STILL don’t lift a finger to change course ... then they have only one remaining claim:

INSANITY!

And, unfortunately, that’s precisely the situation we’re in today: Three recently released government reports now point to fiscal doomsday for America; and one of the reports, issued by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), says so explicitly:

  • The CBO paints two future scenarios for the U.S. budget deficit and the national debt. But it plainly declares that fiscal disaster will strike in EITHER scenario. Furthermore ...
  • The CBO states that its fiscal disaster scenarios could cause severe economic declines for decades to come, including hyperinflation and destruction of retirement savings.
  • The CBO then proceeds to admit that even its worse-case scenario could be understated by a wide margin due to panic in the financial markets or vicious cycles that are beyond control.
  • Separately, in its Flow of Funds Report for the second quarter, the Federal Reserve provides irrefutable data that we are already beginning to witness the first of these consequences in the United States: an unprecedented cut-off of credit to businesses and consumers.
  • Meanwhile, the Treasury Department shows that America’s fate remains, as before, in the hands of foreigners, with the U.S. still owing them $7.9 trillion!
  • And despite all this, neither Congress nor the Obama Administration have proposed a plan or a timetable for averting these doomsday scenarios. Their sole solution is to issue more bonds, borrow more, and print more without restraint.

That is the epitome of insanity.

Yes, the great government bailouts of 2008 and 2009 have bought us some time ... but they have promptly proceeded to sell us into bondage.

Yes, they have given us safe passage over tough seas ... but only to throw our assets onto the global auction block for the highest bidders.

The one bright spot: Unlike some governments, ours does not conceal the evidence of its folly. Quite the contrary, the proof pours forth from these three government reports in relatively blunt language and unmistakably blatant numbers ...

Report #1 Congressional Budget Office (CBO): The Long-Term Budget Outlook

CBO Reort

The CBO opens with a chart predicting the most dramatic surge in government debt of all time.

It shows that even in proportion to the larger size of the U.S. economy today, the government debt has ALREADY surpassed the massive debt loads accumulated during World War I and the Great Depression ... and will soon surpass even the massive debt load of World War II.

“Large budget deficits,” write the authors of the CBO report, would ...

  • Reduce national saving,” leading to ...
  • More borrowing from abroad” and ...
  • Less domestic investment,” which in turn would ...
  • Depress income growth in the United States,” and ...
  • Seriously harm the economy.”

Worse, on page 14, the CBO warns that:

  • “Lenders may become concerned about the financial solvency of the government and ...
  • Demand higher interest rates to compensate for the increasing riskiness of holding government debt.” Plus ...
  • “Both foreign and domestic lenders may not provide enough funds for the government to meet its obligations.”

The magnitude of the problem cannot be underestimated. The CBO declares on page 15 that:

  • “The systematic widening of budget shortfalls projected under CBO’s long-term scenarios has never been observed in U.S. history” and ...
  • It will also be larger than the debt accumulations of any other industrialized nation in the post-World War II period, including Belgium and Italy, the two worst cases of all.

But the CBO admits that even these frightening projections may be grossly understated because:

  • “The analysis omitted the pressures that a rising ratio of debt to GDP would have on real interest rates and economic growth.”
  • “The growth of debt would lead to a vicious cycle in which the government had to issue ever-larger amounts of debt in order to pay ever-higher interest charges.”
  • “More government borrowing would drain the nation’s pool of savings, reducing investment” and ...
  • “Capital would probably flee the United States, further reducing investment.”

But none of these are factored into the analysis. On page 17 of its report, the CBO writes ...

“The analysis ... does not incorporate the financial markets’ reactions to a fiscal crisis and the actions that the government would adopt to resolve such a crisis. Because [our] textbook growth model is not forward-looking, the analysis assumes that people will not anticipate the sustainability issues facing the federal budget; as a result, the model predicts only a gradual change in the economy as federal debt rises.

“In actuality, the economic effects of rapidly growing debt would probably be much more disorderly as investors’ confidence in the nation’s fiscal solvency began to erode. If foreign investors anticipated an economic crisis, they might significantly reduce their purchases of U.S. securities, causing the exchange value of the dollar to plunge, interest rates to climb, and consumer prices to shoot up.(Bolding is mine.)

Report #2 U.S. Federal Reserve: Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States

Flow of Funds

The Fed’s data on page 12 tells it all: The impact on the U.S. credit markets is not just a future scenario. It’s happening right now.

Yes, the government is getting its money to finance its exploding deficits (for now). But it’s hogging all the available supplies, while American businesses and average consumers are getting shut out or even shoved out.

Specifically ...

  • In the first half of last year, the U.S. Treasury raised funds at the annual pace of $411 billion in the first quarter and $310 billion in the second quarter.
  • But if you think that was a lot, consider this: THIS year, the Treasury has stepped up its pace of borrowing to annual rates of $1.443 TRILLION in the first quarter and $1.896 TRILLION in the second quarter. That’s 3.5 times and over SIX TIMES MORE than last year’s, respectively.

Meanwhile, the private sector is getting killed ...

  • Last year, banks provided new credit at the annual pace of $472.4 billion in the first quarter and $86.7 billion in the second. This year, they’re not providing ANY new credit — they’re actually LIQUIDATING loans at the rate of $857.2 billion in the first quarter and $931.3 billion in the second. So if you’re running a business, you may want to think twice before asking your bank for more money. Instead, they may decide to TAKE BACK the money they’ve already loaned you!
  • Ditto for mortgages. Last year, mortgages were being created at the annual clip of $522.5 billion and $124 billion in the first and second quarters, respectively. This year, on a net basis, mortgages haven’t been created at all. Quite the contrary, the Fed reports that, on a net basis, they’ve been liquidated at an annual pace of $39.3 billion in the first quarter and $239.5 billion in the second.
  • Getting cash out of credit cards and other consumer credit is even tougher. Last year, folks were able to add to their consumer credit at annual rates of $115 billion and $105 billion in the first two quarters. This year, in contrast, they’ve been forced to CUT back on their credit at annual rates of $95.3 billion in the first quarter ... and at an even faster pace in the second quarter — $166.8 billion.

Never before in my lifetime have I witnessed a more severe case of crowding out in the credit markets!

And never before has the CBO been so right in its forecasts of fiscal doomsday: One of its dire forecasts was already coming true even before it issued its report.

Report #3 U.S. Treasury Department: Treasury Bulletin

Treasury Bulletin

Each and every month, the Treasury reminds us of the single fact that no one in the Treasury wants to face:

The U.S. is deep in debt to the rest of the world, and on page 48, it provides the evidence: total liabilities to foreigners of $7,898,435 million (nearly $7.9 trillion)!

This isn’t a new record. It was actually slightly more last year. But the fact is NOTHING has been done to reduce our debt to foreigners. Quite the contrary, it is the deliberate policy of our government to pile up more — to sell foreign investors and central banks on the idea that they must continue to lend us money.

The fact that this could potentially put our nation into deeper jeopardy is overlooked. And the dire forecast by the CBO that foreign investors might pull the plug is pooh-poohed.

Sunday, September 6, 2009

China Slashes US Bond Holdings by $25 Billion

BEIJING, CHINA - JUNE 02: U.S. Treasury Secret...Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Mike Larson notes:
The U.S. Treasury Department revealed that China actually REDUCED its note and bond holdings by $25 billion in June. Although China did NOT sell shorter-term Treasury bills — and isn’t expected to — it’s still the largest amount of Treasuries China has ever sold in a single month.

This is a huge development:

  • In 2006, China and Hong Kong accounted for more than 50 percent of the increase in the amount of Treasury debt sold to the public …

  • In 2008, their share had fallen to 22 percent as the U.S. government increased its public debt by a record $1.2 trillion …

  • In the first half of THIS year, China and Hong Kong acquired only 9 percent of the more than $800 billion worth of Treasury bonds that were sold — and now …

  • In June, China became a net SELLER of U.S. Treasury notes and bond


One of Washington’s most dependable sources of loans to finance our out-of-control deficits is drying up. Demand for longer-term Treasuries is softening.