Greek Town Dumps Euro For Bartering System

"As Greece wonders whether its debt crisis will eventually spell its exit from the euro, one town in the center of the country, Volos, has formed an alternative local currency. It works through a bartering system or exchange of goods."

Roubini: 4Q GDP a Joke

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Roubini Calls U.S. Growth ‘Dismal and Poor,’ Predicts Slowing
Simon Kennedy and Erik Schatzker
Bloomberg
New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who anticipated the financial crisis, called the fourth quarter surge in U.S. economic growth “very dismal and poor” because it relied on temporary factors.

Roubini said more than half of the 5.7 percent expansion reported yesterday by the government was related to a replenishing of inventories and that consumption depended on monetary and fiscal stimulus. As these forces ebb, growth will slow to just 1.5 percent in the second half of 2010, he said.

“The headline number will look large and big, but actually when you dissect it, it’s very dismal and poor,” Roubini told Bloomberg Television in an interview at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. “I think we are in trouble.”

Roubini said while the world’s largest economy won’t relapse into recession, unemployment will rise from the current 10 percent, posing social and political challenges.

“It’s going to feel like a recession even if technically we’re not going to be in a recession,” he said.

Gold is being hoarded as hedge against inevitable US default

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More Evidence Gold is Being Hoarded as Comex Fulfills Gold Contracts With Paper

Duncan Davidson
My bet that by 2020 we will return to some form of gold standard is looking better. Something is up when gold is being hoarded to such an extent that the futures exchanges cannot fulfill with metal but have to try to stiff the contract holder with paper. Now, they have done this in the past, and gotten away with it, but according to this story, never so aggressively.

Prof. Antal Fekete has been on this story for several months, and has set forth in some detail how the gold basis is being manipulated, perhaps because of hoarding. (The basis is the delta between the cash price and the next futures price.) Yves has had several posts on Gold Panic, and it is consistent with the good Professor’s analysis.

Another aspect of this story is the collapse of Barrick’s hedging strategy. Barrick Gold (ABX) is the largest gold mining company and had been following a really dumb hedging strategy which had been to take naked short positions (shorting gold they did not possess). In a world of gold hoarding, they may not be able to cover, even at a loss. The strategy was so risky that a conspiracy theory had evolved that Barrick was front-running the US government to keep the gold price down. Lending support to this is the question: why would a gold production firm try to cap the gold price? An answer which does not require the conspiracy is that Barrick had less gold in the ground than it wanted to reveal, and so was engaged in a confidence game of the first order. The weak Dollar (driving gold up) and the hoarding has called their bluff.

Gold-backed currencies, unlike fiat currencies, have the irreducible endpoint of debts being paid in gold, which has retained value throughout history. Fiat currencies have no such endpoint. You can make the argument that fiat currencies are backed by the productive capacity of the issuer, and that they have some irreducible value based on taxing that production. History has tested that case, and found it wanting. You see, fiat currencies tempt countries to over-extend.

What happens when the debts of the issuer are vastly beyond their productive capacity? Well, the country defaults, and the fiat currency is forcibly exchanged for scratch. A 2008 paper by Harvard Professor Rogoff and Prof. Reinhart, both members of the NBER (which calls recessions and recoveries) entitled This Time Is Different demonstrates that instead of fiat regimes making good, they have defaulted over and over throughout eight centuries of financial crises:

We find that serial default [repeated sovereign default] is nearly a universal phenomenon as countries struggle to transform themselves from emerging markets to advanced economies.

Before we take comfort in the US being already an advanced economy, the imperial power of its day has typically defaulted after over-extending. Rich European countries have defaulted, including Austria, France, Portugal Spain and Germany. The reunified German defaulted in 1873, bringing the whole world into a long depression, including the United States. In the last century, Germany defaulted twice: 1932 and 1939. Russia three times, beginning in 1918. England in effect defaulted in 1931.

So now the gold hoarding makes sense: other sovereign powers are preparing for - or at least hedging against - the inevitable sovereign default of the US. The more Obama buries the US in ever more present deficits and future commitments, the closer this becomes.

Niall Ferguson’s piece in Newsweek, which I discussed yesterday, fits into this context. He was talking about Imperial powers getting over-extended, and the first thing that falls is to pullback on excessive defense spending and foolish Imperial wars. Even as Obama pitches tonight a three-year vague commitment in Afghanistan, the hand writing is on the wall. Sadly, the US is so over-extended the wars are but a small pullback in the vast future deficits from social commitments. This won’t end well.

Dubai is just a harbinger of things to come for sovereign debt

Jeremy Warner
Telegraph
Watch out. This may be just the beginning. In the scale of things, the debt problems of Dubai are little more than a flea bite. Dubai’s sovereign debts total “just” $80bn, which counts for nothing against the trillions being raised by advanced economies to plug fiscal deficits.

Small wonder, though, that this minor tremor has sent such shock waves around the wider capital markets. The fear is that threatened default in this tiny desert kingdom is just a harginger of things to come for government debt markets as a whole. According to new estimates by Moody’s, the credit rating agency, the total stock of sovereign debt worldwide will have risen by nearly 50 per cent between 2007 and 2010 to $15.3 trillion. The great bulk of this increase comes not from irrelevant little states like Dubai, but from the big advanced economies – America, Europe, and Japan.

Perversely, they are for the time being beneficiaries of the “flight to safety” that trouble in Dubai has sparked. Government bond yields in the major advanced economies have fallen in response to the crisis in the Gulf. If experience of the banking crisis, when investors removed their money from one bank only to find that the one they had put it into looked just as dodgy, is anything to go by, this effect will not last.

Up until now, markets have assumed that the ruinous fiscal cost of addressing the financial and economic crisis was probably just about affordable to the major economies. That view may be about to be challenged.

I’m going to be writing more about the fallout for Dubai and its implications for the advanced economies in tomorrow’s paper.

Every family in Britain is now facing a tax liability of £4,350 to prop up Britain’s banking system

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Robert Winnett

The Chancellor confirmed that the Government would pump an extra £25.5 billion into Royal Bank of Scotland, and declared that it was the only way to keep the business alive.

Taxpayers have poured a total of £53.5 billion into RBS, including the £20 billion part-nationalisation last year and another £8 billion that was set aside as insurance against further trouble in the future.

In total, the Government has put £74 billion of taxpayers’ money into the banks, including RBS, Lloyds and HBOS, since the start of the financial crisis last year.

The Conservatives claimed the latest bail-out equated to an extra tax liability of £2,000 for every one of the 17 million families in the country. This comes on top of the £2,350 to which every household is already exposed as a result of previous attempts to prop up the financial system.

It is likely that the new bail-out will have to be funded by government borrowing, which could only be repaid through swingeing cuts to public services or substantial tax rises over the coming years. However, despite consumers picking up the bill for yet more billions for the banks, experts said that the money would still not be enough to get them to increase lending to struggling home owners and businesses.

The bail-out of RBS, which was driven to the brink of collapse in 2008 after a series of reckless investments, now ranks as the biggest in the world.

It means the Government owns 84 per cent of what was, at the peak of the finance bubble, the largest bank in the world.

In total, the British Government’s exposure to RBS now stands at more than £250 billion, because in addition to supplying funds to keep it afloat, the Government has also underwritten many of its so-called toxic assets.

The Chancellor announced the move on Tuesday as part of a package that included a further investment of £5.7 billion for Lloyds Banking Group. More...

Massive Bank Protest in Chicago

Rebecca Kelley
If you want bank reform, this protest in Chicago over the next two days, Monday, Oct. 26 and Tuesday, Oct. 27, might be the place where you will want to be. Rally organizers including, Public Citizen, the AFL-CIO, and Change to Win, will be in Chicago tomorrow outside the American Bank Association annual meeting at 11:30 a.m., Oct. 26 at 301 North Water Street.

Organizers say it will be a massive rally to blow the whistle on financial institutions that they say, caused the economic crisis by taking billions in taxpayer bailouts. Protesters say Americans are facing shrinking pensions, risk foreclosures and unemployment, state budget cuts, predatory lending, outrageous overdraft fees, and sky-high credit card interest rates.

Reining in the banks is what protestors are demanding along with oversight, accountability and reforms. The organizers of the rally say they organized the protest now because Congress is taking up regulatory legislation this month that includes the idea of a Consumer Financial Protection Agency.

“Federal Reserve doesn’t know where $1.5 trillion went” - analyst

The US media’s attempts to use the Freedom of Information Act to find out which banks received financial bailouts were blocked, said legal analyst Nicole Kardell, and the Federal Reserve doesn’t know the answer itself.

At a time of financial crisis in the United States – after a nearly $800 billion stimulus package was passed this year and after nearly $700 billion in bailout money was passed in 2008 by the Bush administration – Americans are wondering where all the money has gone.

Lawmakers are trying to pass a bill which would ask for an audit of the Federal Reserve. But there are some media outlets that are taking a different route. They are filing lawsuits under the Freedom of Information Act through which they try to find out which banks received bailouts and how much money they got. Just recently one such lawsuit was rejected. The problem might be that the Federal Reserve itself doesn’t know where half a trillion dollars went, says Kardell.

Source: Russia Today