Gold, Silver In Asian Liquidation Mode

Spot Gold $1426 (from $1564 highs Friday)

As Asia opens to the bloodbath that occurred in precious metals on Friday in the US, it would appear that more than a few traders got the 'tap on the shoulder'. Shanghai futures are limit-down and spot gold and silver prices are plunging once again as we suspect forced margin-calls and the raising of cash (to cover extreme variation margin - or capital reserves) needed in JGB positions, as we explained here.

Liquidation is certainly the theme of the evening - investors are selling JGBs (6th day in a row of multiple-sigma moves in long-dated Japanese bonds 30Y +56bps off its post-BoJ lows at 1.60%!), selling Japanese stocks (Nikkei -128 pts, second biggest down day post-BoJ), selling US Treasuries (futures down), selling gold and silver (gold spot down over $100 from Friday's highs), and despite selling JPY early (retracing 30% of the weakness post-BoJ), JPY is practically unchanged (jerking lower only on the US futures open and Asian equity open) - it seems Mrs.Watanabe is struggling and unwinding some her excessively short JPY and long NKY positions. Read more >>

Fed Pushes Into Uncharted Territory as Assets Hit $3 Trillion

Ben Bernanke, Vampire Chairman (Photo credit: DonkeyHotey)

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s unprecedented bond buying pushed the Fed’s balance sheet to a record $3 trillion....

The Fed is purchasing $85 billion of securities every month, using the full force of its balance sheet to stoke the economic recovery. The central bank began $40 billion in monthly purchases of mortgage-backed securities in September and added $45 billion in Treasury securities to that pace this month.

“We’re in uncharted territory,” said Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas SA in New York, and a former Fed economist. Even as “the easy money will flow through financial markets and into the real economy at some point and lift us to a better growth trajectory,” the U.S. faces “a lot of risks,” she said. Read more >>

The Fed has created the largest Ponzi Scheme in history

The Federal Reserve: The Biggest Scam In History
(Photo credit: CityGypsy11)

Mitch Feierstein, Author, 'Planet Ponzi'
Loose money in the past, loose money guaranteed into the future ... but that's still not enough. The Fed has enlarged its balance sheet by $2 trillion since the crisis began to unfold. But that doesn't even say it. The unelected officials at the Fed handed out an extraordinary $16 trillion in secret loans to bail out banks and businesses in the 2008-10 period. Those loans were not known to, or authorized by, Congress and many of the recipients were firms owned and headquarter abroad. Sen. Bernie Sanders, who has much to call attention to these issues, comments, 'No agency of the United States government should be allowed to bailout a foreign bank or corporation without the direct approval of Congress and the president.' Well, duh! It's frankly extraordinary that there should be any question about this.

As Sanders also points out, the actual operation of the bailouts was largely outsourced in large part to investment banking firms on Wall Street who benefitted directly from the bailout. According to the Government Accountability Office, some two-thirds of such outsourcing contracts were awarded on a no-bid basis, an extraordinary failure. And meantime in a 'money-laundering' style operation, the Fed is acquiring $40 billion of low-quality mortgage backed securities - in many cases from the firms that created and missold them - thereby cleaning corrupt balance sheets at the risk of the US taxpayer.

The problems created by this unconstitutional misconduct go far beyond the mere trillions of dollars involved. The US Treasury market is being currently manipulated on a heroic scale. At times we've seen the Fed buying as much as 70% of US government bond issuance. Worse still, it's effectively told the market that it intends to continue supporting the market as much as necessary for as long as necessary. In effect, we have a tiny group of unelected officials pursuing a set of radical and experimental policies - QE infinity, money-printing, unlimited bond buying, call it what you will.

And the theory behind this activity is simply crazy. When have price controls and state intervention ever worked? I don't just mean for the US Treasuries market, but for any major market at any time? State intervention always fails. The Fed is simply setting up what looks set to be the largest Ponzi Scheme in history. Read more >>

The Trouble with Printing Money

For a while now, I have been expecting a coordinated, global central bank action that would seek to print more money out of thin air, or "QE" (quantitative easing), as it is now called.  Now we have two of the most important central banks, that of the U.S. (the Federal Reserve) and in Europe (the ECB) having committed to open-ended, limitless QE.

In Part I of this report, we analyze the actions themselves, and then in Part II we discuss the implications to individuals and those with responsibilities to manage money.

The most recent announcement came from the Fed, and it had these features:

The creation of $40 billion a month out of thin air to purchase agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

The continuation of Operation Twist, which uses short-term Treasury bills and notes on its books to purchase long-term Treasury paper (that's 10- and 30- year bonds).

When MBS payments come in – the Fed holds over $840 billion dollars of those – they will buy still more MBS paper ('rolling' the payments into new MBS, as it were).

Taken together, the Fed will expand its balance sheet holdings of long-term assets (i.e., "debt") by ~$85 billion per month through the end of the year...but wait!  There's more...

This time, unlike the prior two QE efforts, the actions will be taken without any pre-defined limit.  
QE will continue until the labor market improves "substantially," whatever that means.  But wait...there's even more!

If deemed necessary, the Fed will "purchase additional assets" and "employ other policy tools."

As if all that weren't enough, for good measure, the Fed committed to a six-month extension of the 0.0% to 0.25% target range for the Fed Funds rate until at least mid 2015.

Read more >>

1.3 Million People Fall Off Extended Benefits In Past Year

One month of positive economic surprises since the last FOMC may be all we get, now that a "majority" of FOMC members suddenly need a rapid deterioration in economic data to usher in the NEWER, MORE OPEN-ENDED QE.

Initial claims was happy to comply: after posting several weeks in a row of "beats", claims has finally resumed "missing", as well as rising, posting an increase from last week's upward revised 368K print to 372K this week, worse than the expected improvement to 365K, and to a one month high. And with continuing claims missing too, the real story continues to be the steep fall off in those on extended benefits and EUC, which declined by a total of 48K in the past week, and down by about half a million in the last few months, and lower by 1.3 million in the past year.

This is 1.3 million fewer consumers who can recycle Uncle Sam's dole back into the economy and iGadgets. The question is whether this minimal miss is enough to justify the FOMC doves' fears the much more QE is needed. Read more >>

U.S. Debt Just Grew by $11 Trillion

Republicans and Democrats spent last summer battling how best to save $2.1 trillion over the next decade. They are spending this summer battling how best to not save $2.1 trillion over the next decade. In the course of that year, the U.S. government’s fiscal gap -- the true measure of the nation’s indebtedness -- rose by $11 trillion.

The fiscal gap is the present value difference between projected future spending and revenue. It captures all government liabilities, whether they are official obligations to service Treasury bonds or unofficial commitments, such as paying for food stamps or buying drones.

Some question whether “official” and “unofficial” spending commitments can be added together. But calling particular obligations “official” doesn’t make them economically more important. Indeed, the government would sooner renege on Chinese holding U.S. Treasuries than on Americans collecting Social Security, especially because the U.S. can print money and service its bonds with watered-down dollars.

For its part, economic theory sees through labels and views a country’s official debt for what it is -- a linguistic construct devoid of real economic content. In contrast, the fiscal gap is theoretically well-defined and invariant to the choice of labels. Each labeling choice changes the mix of obligations between official and unofficial, but leaves the total unchanged. Read more >>

Dow, Nasdaq: May Worst Month in Two Years

Click the chart for more stock market data.

"May is always a difficult month for the market, and this month has lived up to that reputation," said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson, noting that the market has suffered declines in May for three out of the last four years.

The Dow and S&P 500 dropped more than 6% in May. In fact, the Dow only booked five positive days this month. The last time this occurred was in January 1968. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq has declined more 7%.

The Dow and Nasdaq logged the worst monthly performance since May 2010, when investors were spooked by the Flash Crash, while the S&P 500 posted its biggest monthly loss since September 2011. As stocks have tumbled, investors have rushed toward the safety of U.S. Treasuries, pushing the 10-year yield to record lows. Read more >> 

Dealers See Fed Buying $545B Mortgage Bonds

Image via WikipediaAfter cutting its target interest rate for overnight loans between banks to a range of zero to 0.25 percent, the Fed bought about $1.7 trillion of government and mortgage debt during QE1 between December 2008 and March 2010, and purchased $600 billion of Treasuries between November 2010 and June through QE2.

Now the biggest bond dealers in the U.S. say the Federal Reserve is poised to start a new round of stimulus, injecting more money into the economy by purchasing mortgage securities instead of Treasuries.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his fellow policy makers, who bought $2.3 trillion of Treasury and mortgage-related bonds between 2008 and June, will start another program next quarter, 16 of the 21 primary dealers of U.S. government securities that trade with the central bank said in a Bloomberg News survey last week. The Fed may buy about $545 billion in home-loan debt, based on the median of the 10 firms that provided estimates. More...

US to Experience Stagflation Worse Than 1970s: Jim Rogers

Image via WikipediaThe U.S. economy is likely to experience a period of stagflation worse than the 1970s, which would cause bond yields to spike, commodity bull Jim Rogers told CNBC on Friday in Singapore. Rogers said governments were lying about the inflation problem and the recent rally in Treasurys was a bubble.

"As the inflation numbers get worse and as governments print more money and as governments have to issue many, many more bonds - somewhere along the line we get to the point when (bond prices) go down."

Between 1974 and 1978 average inflation in the U.S. was at 8 percent, while unemployment hit a peak of 9 percent in May 1975. Currently, unemployment is at 9.1 percent while CPI is at 3.8 percent.

Rogers believes inflation will get much worse this time because, he said, in the 1970s only the Fed was printing money, whereas now many global central banks have been easing monetary policy. More...

Long Shadows Cast Over US Economy

Image via WikipediaJim Willie
Numerous are the threats to the US Economy and US financial structures. Many are hidden threats, subtle challenges to undermine increasingly fragile support systems, planks, and cables that hold the system together.

The year 2011 will be when the system breaks in open visible fashion, when the explanations that justify it sound silly and baseless, when the entire bond world endures major crashes. All thing financial are inter-related.

Recall that in summer 2007, the professor occupying the US Federal Reserve claimed the subprime mortgage crisis was isolated. The Jackass countered with a claim that the bond market was suffering a crisis in absolute terms, where all bond markets were on the verge of fracture, perhaps globally.

In year 2008 the banking system in the Western world broke, fatally and irreparably in my view. In 2009, the solutions, the treatment, the official programs were all exaggerated for their effectiveness while banker welfare became a fixture. Neglect of the people on Main Street became policy.

In 2010, the system revealed it is still broken. The global monetary system after all rests atop the sovereign bond market. This year, it must fight off a collapse. Many are the hidden points of vulnerability. Gold & Silver will continue to be the great beneficiaries. Read more...

Hyperinflation Watch – Numbers Don’t Lie

Image by Getty Images via @daylifeFor several months I have been warning that hyperinflation of the US dollar is looming. The ominous signs of this impending currency train-wreck are becoming increasingly clear.

For example, crude oil is threatening to break above $90 per barrel. Copper has broken through $4 per pound to a record high price. The prices of many other commodities are also in uptrends. These commodities are not in short supply. There is no shortage of oil or copper. Rather, these high prices are the result of too much money printing, which if not quickly stopped by returning to a sound money policy will ultimately lead to hyperinflation.

Last week another important part of the hyperinflation puzzle fell into place. Long-term interest rates surged, continuing their sharp upward path that began two months ago. The 10-year T-note during this two month period has risen from 2.4% to end last week over 3.2%, a remarkable and therefore telling jump.

This rise in long-term rates lays bare the flawed logic of the Federal Reserve’s newly announced $600 billion so-called “Quantitative Easing” program supposedly designed to help the economy. This new round of money printing is not going to help the economy, which has been hollowed out by years of debt financed consumption along with too little savings and production. This money printing is serving only one purpose. This central bank trickery is providing the federal government with all the dollars it wants to spend.

So despite the fact the Fed will be purchasing $600 billion of US government debt instruments, T-bond and T-note yields are climbing, a clear sign that investors are rushing to sell their US government paper. Why? Because they know the purchasing power of the dollar is being debased by QE, and more importantly, will continue being debased. More...

Interest among central banks to own Gold increases

IMF Oct gold sales down 40% to 628,000 ounces
commodityonline.com
International Monetary Fund said its gold sale in October dropped 40 percent to 628,000 ounces compared with September.

In a statement, IMF said it has cut down the sales under its pre announced open-market bullion sales plan as interest among central banks to own the metal increased as a hedge against economic uncertainty.

The IMF last year announced planned to sell 403.3 tonnes of gold to boost its lending resources. cumulative on-market sales of IMF gold to the end of October was 4.8 million ounces (148.6 tonnes).

Gold previously sold directly to central banks were 222 tonnes to India, 200 tonnes to Mauritius, 10 tonnes to Sri Lanka and 10 tonnes to Bangladesh.

October's gold sales were sharply below the 1.04 million ounces sold in September, when nearly a third of the sale was going to Bangladesh.

Many analysts expect world central banks as a group could become net buyers this year despite IMF's gold sales, reversing a trend in the last several decades.

Gold prices hit an all-time high of $1,424.10 early this month before retreating. The rally was driven in part by expectations that the Federal Reserve would buy back U.S. Treasuries to stimulate economic growth.

However, gold's rally appeared to stall despite concerns about the fiscal health of euro zone economies after a bailout on debt-stricken Ireland and rising tensions on the Korean peninsula.

A Quick Glance At Real World Inflation

The Casey Report provides a useful glance at the real inflation currently ravaging items that are actually purchased by Americans, not those captured by the Fed's BLS statistics: "On average, our basic food costs have increased by an incredible 48% over the last year (measured by wheat, corn, oats, and canola prices). From the price at the pump to heating your stove, energy costs are up 23% on average (heating oil, gasoline, natural gas). A little protein at dinner is now 39% higher (beef and pork), and your morning cup of coffee with a little sugar has risen by 36% since last October." Of course, the ongoing deflation in items purchases requiring leverage will continue to skew the CPI so far south to make all those who bought 5 Year TIPS yesterday at negative yields end up losing money on the transaction. More...

Robert Prechter - Get out of stocks; Dow to fall below 1,000

Image via Wikipedia

Jeff Sommer
With the stock market lurching again, plenty of investors are nervous, and some are downright bearish. Then there’s Robert Prechter, the market forecaster and social theorist, who is in another league entirely.

Mr. Prechter is convinced we have entered a market decline of staggering proportions - perhaps the biggest of the last 300 years.

In a series of phone conversations and e-mail exchanges last week, he said that no other forecaster was likely to accept his reasoning, which is based on his version of the Elliott Wave theory - a technical approach to market analysis that he embraces with evangelical fervour.

Originating in the writings of Ralph Nelson Elliott, an obscure accountant who found repetitive patterns, or “fractals,” in the stock market of the 1930s and ‘40s, the theory suggests that an epic downswing is under way, Mr. Prechter said. But he argued that even skeptical investors should take his advice seriously.

“I’m saying: ‘Winter is coming. Buy a coat,”’ he said. “Other people are advising people to stay naked. If I’m wrong, you’re not hurt. If they’re wrong, you’re dead. It’s pretty benign advice to opt for safety for a while.”

His advice: Individual investors should move completely out of the market and hold cash and cash equivalents, like Treasury bills, for years to come. (For traders with a fair amount of skill and willingness to embrace risk, he suggests other alternatives, like shorting the market or making bets on volatility.) But ultimately, “the decline will lead to one of the best investment opportunities ever,” he said.

Buy-and-hold stock investors will be devastated in a crash much worse than the declines of 2008 and early 2009 or the worst years of the Great Depression or the Panic of 1873, he predicted.

For a rough parallel, he said, go all the way back to England and the collapse of the South Sea Bubble in 1720, a crash that deterred people “from buying stocks for 100 years,” he said. This time, he said, “If I’m right, it will be such a shock that people will be telling their grandkids many years from now, ‘Don’t touch stocks.”’

The Dow, which now stands at 9,686.48, is likely to fall well below 1,000 over perhaps five or six years as a grand market cycle comes to an end, he said. That unraveling, combined with a depression and deflation, will make anyone holding cash “extremely grateful for their prudence.” More...

Social Security to start cashing Uncle Sam's IOUs

Image via Wikipedia

The retirement nest egg of an entire generation is stashed away in this small town along the Ohio River: $2.5 trillion in IOUs from the federal government, payable to the Social Security Administration.

It's time to start cashing them in.

For more than two decades, Social Security collected more money in payroll taxes than it paid out in benefits — billions more each year.

Not anymore. This year, for the first time since the 1980s, when Congress last overhauled Social Security, the retirement program is projected to pay out more in benefits than it collects in taxes — nearly $29 billion more.

Sounds like a good time to start tapping the nest egg. Too bad the federal government already spent that money over the years on other programs, preferring to borrow from Social Security rather than foreign creditors. In return, the Treasury Department issued a stack of IOUs — in the form of Treasury bonds — which are kept in a nondescript office building just down the street from Parkersburg's municipal offices.

Now the government will have to borrow even more money, much of it abroad, to start paying back the IOUs, and the timing couldn't be worse. The government is projected to post a record $1.5 trillion budget deficit this year, followed by trillion dollar deficits for years to come. More...

Obama Wants Your Retirement Account

Obama to meddle with your retirement account?
Administration considers forcing investors into Treasury debt
Jerome R. Corsi
The Obama administration appears to have come up with a novel way of financing trillion-dollar budget deficits – demanding IRA and 401(k) holders buy trillions of dollars in Treasury bonds.

With the Treasury needing this year to see another $1 trillion in debt to finance the anticipated federal budget deficit, and the Federal Reserve about to discontinue its 2009 program of buying Treasury bonds for the Fed's asset portfolio, the Obama administration is scrambling to find ways to sell government debt without having to raise interest rates.

Bloomberg reported Friday that Assistant Labor Secretary Phyllis C. Borzi and Deputy Assistant Treasury Mark Iwry are planning to stage a public comment period before implementing regulations that would require private investors to structure IRA and 401(k) accounts into what could amount to a U.S. Treasury debt-backed government annuity.

CNBC's Rick Santelli broadcast the rumor the same day from the trading floor during CNBC's "Power Lunch" show.

Spokesmen from both the U.S. Treasury and Department of Labor confirmed to WND that the federal agencies about to enter a pre-regulation public comment phase on the proposed rule change.

But the agencies are getting serious pushback from the mutual fund industry, objecting to what some financial planners see as a government attempt to divert hundreds of billions of dollars of private retirement accounts
into federal government debt, regardless whether the investment in Treasury bonds is in the best interest of the retirement-oriented investor.

On the Department of Labor website, the transcript of a Dec. 9 webchat with Borzi confirms the Employee Benefits Security Administration is about to issue a Request for Information on how annuity lifetime options should be structured into a wide range of defined contribution retirement plans, including 401(k)s.

Under ERISA, the Department of Labor regulates approximately 700,000 private pension plans, with approximately $4.7 trillion in assets.

"Lifetime Income Options," code words for annuities, are also listed in the Department of Labor's regulatory agenda for the Employee Benefits Security Administration, issued Dec. 7 and filed in the Federal Register.

The government's argument is that IRA and 401(k) investors lost principle in the stock market when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted from a closing of 14,164.53 on Oct. 9, 2007, to 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009.

For instance, Fidelity Investments reported the average fund balance on the approximately 11 million accounts Fidelity manages dropped 31 percent to $47,500 at the end of March, from $69,200 at the end of 2007.

With the stock market rally since March, Fidelity further reports 401(k) account balances increased 128 percent by the end of the third quarter 2009, to an average of $60,700, from the low at the end of the first quarter 2009 of $47,500.

While U.S. Treasury bonds have had historically lower yields than equity returns, government proponents of the idea argue Treasury bonds are safer, guaranteed by the federal government to pay principal and interest regardless of market conditions.

Furthermore, annuities as life insurance contracts have a unique investment advantage of being able to pay a specified lifetime income, regardless how long the annuitant lives.

The Investment Company Institute, a national trade organization representing the mutual fund industry, argues that the distinction of the Obama administration proposal would be to require annuities funded with Treasuries to be embedded within IRAs and 401(k) programs, using the fear of loss as a reason to demand retirement investors own Treasuries.

Right now, IRA holders and investors in 401(k) plans are free to invest in Treasury bonds, if they choose.

Also, annuities are a popular settlement option for IRAs and 401(k) plans that transition from the accumulation phase to the payout phase.

Annuities are an attractive payout instrument, because annuities offer the part of lifetime income and only a portion of each payout installment is considered taxable as return of investment principle.

Interest or investment earnings in annuities accumulate income tax-deferred until the annuitant takes out money, either in an unscheduled withdrawal, or in a payout option extending over a specified number of years in retirement, or for the lifetime of the annuitant.

The unusual nature of the Obama administration's proposal would be to place as an investment a tax-deferred instrument like an annuity within a tax-deferred retirement program. Investment advisers typically use annuities as an investment option for after-tax dollars, not as a required investment option within a retirement program like an IRA or 401(k) that is already income-tax deferred.

A survey conducted by the Investment Company Institute showed more than 70 percent of all households disagreed with the idea of requiring retirees to buy annuities with a portion of their assets, whether the annuity is offered by an insurance company or by the government.

Moreover, 96 percent of households in the survey responded that retirees rejected the idea that the government should mandate turning IRA or 401(k) assets into annuities, asserting instead that retirees should make their own decisions about managing retirement assets and income.

The Investment Company Institute member companies manage some $11.62 trillion in mutual fund assets for some 90 million mutual fund shareholders, including retirement-oriented investors participating in defined contribution plans such as employer-sponsored 401(k) accounts.

The Coming Confiscation of 401(k)'s

expectedreturns.blogspot.com
Our government is in the middle of a funding crisis that will be resolved as it always has: through the confiscation of citizens' hard-earned wealth. Judging by the way Americans are being conditioned to accept criminal behavior at the highest levels of government, this confiscation will probably be pretty explicit. I'm guessing we'll eventually see a FDR-style confiscation of gold and retirement accounts (401(k)'s). From the following article in Businessweek, Americans Oppose Initiatives Limiting 401(k) Choices, ICI Says, it seems that day is quickly approaching.

U.S. investors oppose federal initiatives that would force them to give up control over their 401(k) accounts, the Investment Company Institute said.

Seven in 10 U.S. households object to the idea of the government requiring retirees to convert part of their savings into annuities guaranteeing a steady payment for life, according to an institute-funded report today.

7 out of 10 Americans against government control of 401(k)'s? This probably means legislation is going to be shoved down our throats anyway. I mean, isn't this the new trend in our new "government-knows-best" style of government?

Annuity Conversion, aka Theft

The U.S. Treasury and Labor Departments will ask for public comment as soon as next week on ways to promote the conversion of 401(k) savings and Individual Retirement Accounts into annuities or other steady payment streams, according to Assistant Labor Secretary Phyllis C. Borzi and Deputy Assistant Treasury Secretary Mark Iwry, who are spearheading the effort.

The coming theft of retirement accounts is one of the most obvious trends for the next 20 years. I mean seriously, the American public stood shell-shocked like 5 year olds while getting looted to the tune of trillions of dollars- what makes you think the government isn't going to steal your retirement accounts?

The government is going to try to sell the move into annuities as a "safe" way to protect the public from the vagaries of the stock market. The truth is, the government is damn broke, which means they will have their hand in every person's pocket. The confiscation will function like this. American citizens will be forced to buy a worthless asset (in this case U.S. Treasuries) and receive a paltry return on capital. Factoring in inflation, returns are likely to be negative.

That the government has to resort to such measures indicates the severity of the current funding crisis. First, the insane monetization of debt. Now, Americans will be compelled to prop up the Treasury market. 5 years ago you couldn't make this stuff up; today, it is a reality.

Stock Market Collapse + Retirement Hopes Destroyed

Ok. So the government is basically telling us they are going to confiscate 401(k)'s. Now think for a second what happens when massive forced inflows of capital into stocks turn into massive forced outflows. It doesn't take a genius to figure out stocks are going to crater, and with it, the retirement hopes of millions of Americans.

When a critical mass of the population realizes this, then you will really know what a panic is. 401(k)’s were always structurally deficient products. The standard line is that with tax benefits and company matches, nothing can possibly go wrong! 401(k)'s are for the "wise" investor who is in it for the mythical "long-term". Whenever I hear this ridiculous line from someone, I know the person hasn't looked at a single "long-term" chart in his life. Sorry to ruin the party, but in the "long-term" (at least for Baby Boomers) stocks are going to go down in real terms and taxes are going to rise. And oh yea, you're getting taxed on income, which means if your 401(k) is actually worth something, the only person who will be celebrating is Uncle Sam. This is a disaster in the making for the disappearing middle class in America.

2010-2020: Major Paradigm Shifts Coming

These are interesting times. I can tell you this much: a lot of paradigms are about to change in the next 10 years. Most people are already skeptical of our government, which is clearly evidenced by the plunging approval ratings of both Congress and President Obama. However, most people are ignorant about the lengths governments always go to in order to prevent insolvency.

The current forced bond purchase scheme by our government reminds me a lot of what happened in France during the French Revolution, when church property was confiscated in return for assignats- which functioned as bonds. It didn't take long for those assignats to be worthless in value. I expect the same thing to happen eventually with U.S. Treasuries.

There will be a crisis of sorts in the near future. This is just one of the many reasons I am extremely bullish on gold.

Bank Runs May Now Become Illegal

In addition to the current administration proposal to authorize "Federal Reserve banks to provide as much as $4 trillion in emergency funding the next time Wall Street crashes", note the more chilling reaction to Huffington's Move Your Money campaign:

New regulations proposed by the administration, and specifically by the ever-incompetent Securities and Exchange Commission, seek to...[change] the primary assumptions of the key Money Market Rule 2a-7. A key proposal in the overhaul of money market regulation suggests that money market fund managers will have the option to "suspend redemptions to allow for the orderly liquidation of fund assets."

The next time there is a market crash, and you try to withdraw what you thought was "absolutely" safe money, a back office person will get back to you saying, "Sorry - your money is now frozen.

Bank runs have become illegal.

"This is precisely the regulation now proposed by the administration. In essence, the entire US capital market is now a hedge fund, where even presumably the safest investment tranche can be locked out from within your control when the ubiquitous "extraordinary circumstances" arise. The second the game of constant offer-lifting ends, and money markets are exposed for the ponzi investment proxies they are, courtesy of their massive holdings of Treasury Bills, Reverse Repos, Commercial Paper, Agency Paper, CD, finance company MTNs and, of course, other money markets, and you decide to take your money out, well - sorry, you are out of luck. It's the law."

Read more...

People's Bank of China: dollar will continue to fall

shanghaidaily.com
Harder to buy US Treasuries
Zhou Xin and Jason Subler

IT is getting harder for governments to buy United States Treasuries because the US's shrinking current-account gap is reducing supply of dollars overseas, a Chinese central bank official said yesterday.

The comments by Zhu Min, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, referred to the overall situation globally, not specifically to China, the biggest foreign holder of US government bonds.

Chinese officials generally are very careful about commenting on the dollar and Treasuries, given that so much of its US$2.3 trillion reserves are tied to their value, and markets always watch any such comments closely for signs of any shift in how it manages its assets.

China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange reaffirmed this month that the dollar stands secure as the anchor of the currency reserves it manages, even as the country seeks to diversify its investments.

In a discussion on the global role of the dollar, Zhu told an academic audience that it was inevitable that the dollar would continue to fall in value because Washington continued to issue more Treasuries to finance its deficit spending.

He then addressed where demand for that debt would come from.

"The United States cannot force foreign governments to increase their holdings of Treasuries," Zhu said, according to an audio recording of his remarks. "Double the holdings? It is definitely impossible."

"The US current account deficit is falling as residents' savings increase, so its trade turnover is falling, which means the US is supplying fewer dollars to the rest of the world," he added. "The world does not have so much money to buy more US Treasuries."

China continues to see its foreign exchange reserves grow, albeit at a slower pace than in past years, due to a large trade surplus and inflows of foreign investment. They stood at US$2.3 trillion at the end of September.

Bob Chapman: This may be the most important info we have ever published

Image via Wikipedia

Bob Chapman
The following information may be the most important we have ever published. One of our Intel sources, highly placed in banking circles, tells us that on 1/1/10 all banks that have received TARP funds have been informed by the Federal Reserve that they must further restrict any commercial lending. Loans have to be 75% collateralized, 50% of which has to be in cash, which is a compensating balance.

The Fed has to do one of two things: They either have to pull $1.5 trillion out of the system by June, which would collapse the economy, or face hyperinflation. This is why the Fed has instructed banks to inform them when and how much of the TARP funds they can return. At best they can expect $300 to $400 billion plus the $200 billion the Fed already has in hand.

We believe the Fed will opt for letting the system run into hyperinflation. All signs tell us they cannot risk allowing the undertow of deflation to take over the economy. The system cannot stand such a withdrawal of funds. They also must depend on assistance from Congress in supplying a second stimulus plan. That would probably be $400 to $800 billion. A lack of such funding would send the economy and the stock market into a tailspin. Even with such funding the economy cannot expect any growth to speak of and at best a sideways movement for perhaps a year.

We have been told that the FDIC not only is $8.2 billion in the hole, but they have secretly borrowed an additional $80 billion from the Treasury. We have also been told that the FDIC is lying about the banks in trouble. The number in eminent danger are not 552, but a massive 2,035. The cost of bailing these banks out would be $800 billion to $1 trillion. That means 2,500 could be closed in 2010. Now get this, the FDIC is going to be collapsed before the end of 2010, which means no more deposit insurance. This follows the 9/18/09 end of government guarantees on money market funds. Both will force deposits into US government bonds and agency bonds in an attempt to save the system.

This will strip small and medium-sized banks and force them into shutting down or being absorbed. This means you have to get your money out of banks, especially CDs. We repeat get your cash values out of life insurance policies and annuities. They are invested 80% in stocks and 20% in bonds. Keep only enough money in banks for three months of operating expenses, six months for businesses.

Major and semi-major banks are being told to obtain secure storage for new currency-dollars. They expect official devaluation by the end of the year.

We do not know what the exchange rate will be, but as we have stated previously we expect three old dollars to be traded for one new dollar. The alternative is gold and silver coins and shares. For those with substantial sums that do not want to be in gold and silver related assets completely you can use Canadian and Swiss Treasuries. If you need brokers for these investments we can supply them.

The Fed also expects a meltdown in the bond market, especially in municipals. Public services will be cut drastically leading to increased crime and social problems, not to mention the psychological trauma that our country will experience. Already 50% of homes in hard hit urban areas are under water, nationwide more than 25%. That means you have to be out of bonds as well, especially municipals. More...