CBO Doubles Estimate of How Many Will Pay Obamacare Penalty

Nearly 6 million Americans — significantly more than first estimated — will face a tax penalty under President Barack Obama's health overhaul for not getting insurance, congressional analysts said Wednesday. Most would be in the middle class. The new estimate amounts to an inconvenient fact for the administration, a reminder of what critics see as broken promises.

The numbers from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office are 50 percent higher than a previous projection by the same office in 2010, shortly after the law passed. The earlier estimate found 4 million people would be affected in 2016, when the penalty is fully in effect.

And the budget office analysis found that nearly 80 percent of those who'll face the penalty would be making up to or less than five times the federal poverty level. Currently that would work out to $55,850 or less for an individual and $115,250 or less for a family of four. Read more >>

Obamacare leaves many of the poorest Americans at risk of remaining uninsured

The Supreme Court may have upheld health care reform, but the ruling has left many of the poorest Americans at risk of remaining uninsured. The justices' decision Thursday kept in place nearly all of the Affordable Care Act's provisions, including the mandate that all consumers buy health insurance by 2014 or pay a tax. Also upheld was a provision that expands Medicaid coverage to include all adults with annual incomes at or below 133% of the federal poverty level, which is currently $14,404 for an individual.

The federal government will pick up the total cost of the expensive expansion for the first three years, after which the funding will phase down to 90%. The expansion could reduce the number of uninsured adults with incomes under 133% of poverty by more than 11 million by 2019, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation estimate.

But here's the catch: The states can opt out of the Medicaid expansion program, since the court said the federal government can't penalize them by withholding all Medicaid funding. Instead, these states wouldn't get the additional Medicaid money to cover newly eligible enrollees. And that could mean trouble for many poor adults who are not eligible for Medicaid under the current system but would have qualified under the expansion. Read more >>