Total Collapse is Near - All Paper Money Will Fail

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ZeroHedge makes a strong argument for the physical possession of precious metals:

Gold and Systemic Crisis
Presently many otherwise intelligent and capable individuals in America do not seem to understand the origins of the present financial crisis -- and the multiple aspects (or shall we say 'tentacles'?) of its origination. These tentacles stretch far back in history: from the present demoralization and fragmentation of American society, to the demonetization of gold in 1971, stretching to the forces behind World War I and World War II, and ultimately, in terms of the 20th century, to the creation the Federal Reserve in 1913.

Our topic here is gold, and unfortunately we will have to save the analysis of totalitarianism's final forms for another paper. But what must be understood is that ultimately we are witnessing a 'failure of imagination' on the part of the general public -- a similar failure to what always permits radical evil to spread. This moral failure was characterized by both Hannah Arendt in Eichmann in Jerusalem , and Alexander Solzhenitsyn in The Gulag Archipelago. Because in our society people do not understand history nor human nature, and are saturated with lies and propaganda 24/7 via the CNBS broadcast media, they cannot imagine the moral consequences of their actions or inactions -- let alone the consequences of systemic failure. So to remedy this situation, let us take a quick glance at history, but try to avoid the pitfalls of the gold bug crowd. As someone mentioned, here at ZeroHedge, we are 'truth bugs'.

"If only it were all so simple! If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them. But the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart?"
-Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

History is a great teacher. One thing it shows us is that all systems of paper money fail. And they usually fail very quickly, not outlasting a man's lifetime. Gold and silver have been used as money for over 6000 years, including for extended periods of time, such as during the 1000 years of the Eastern Roman Empire. There are mathematical reasons why humans historically use precious metals as money, but we will not go into them here. Our present system is curious and almost astonishing that it has managed to last so long, given the lessons of history. Dr. Antal Fekete wrote in his latest paper that the mean time to failure of a non-gold backed system is approximately 18 years. Our present system has lasted over twice as long -- 38 years at last count, measured since the U.S.'s surreptitious default on it's foreign gold obligations under the Nixon administration in 1971 and currencies began to 'float'.

We have a fractional-reserve credit based system, where our money is mostly hallucinated computer pixels. The system is highly leveraged, but is almost entirely electronic. We now have multiple generations which have grown up without using money in its historic forms. For example, even the new Monopoly game uses electronic cards rather than paper money. Let me summarize these changes -- for simplicity sake, here we use gold to mean gold and/or silver. The global monetary system has changed three times: first, from gold to gold IOUs, then from gold IOUs to debt IOUs, and finally from debt IOUs to electronic-debt IOUs. But are these IOU's really 'unbacked', as claimed by the gold bugs? Actually , they *are* backed. They are backed as long as the IOUs can be exchanged for oil and gold at some realistic price metric.

According to Dr. Fekete, the reason our unmoored system has continued so long, past the usual 18 year lifespan of fiat currency experiments, is that we have invented a system of gold futures clearing and gold derivatives trading -- an innovation that did not exist in the past. In other words, we have created a gold 'price horizon' in electronic-debt IOUs, with the tendency to converge to the gold spot price. (Is the tail wagging the dog?) Additionally we have gold leasing, forward hedging, and all sorts of other trickery that has been going on for quite some time now. The electronic debt-IOU remains linked to gold via various Ponzi-like paper innovations.

The author FOFOA adds that additionally, what has characterized our system since 1971 is gold/oil flows between the various Petro States of the Middle East and the New York and London banking centers. These implicit deals allowed the United States to continue to purchase oil directly in dollars -- despite having defaulted on its international obligations. This 'innovation' somewhat resembles a US military-led protection racket. Remember that the second oil crisis of 1979-1980 coincided with price explosions in both gold and oil, yet catastrophe was avoided. This will not be the case the second time around.

There are also of course the lesser but nonetheless important details such as hedging which was done via large gold producers, the gold price suppression by the central banks, the geometric growth of OTC interest rate swaps, and so on. For those interested in these technical details, we highly recommend reading all the posts at FOFOA and the work of Rob Kirby. But here, the goal is a summary 'big picture' overview regarding the main points. What we can surmise though, is that our present system is a historical anomaly despite its technological innovations. And that should make us cautious of issuing blanket proclamations about the U.S. dollar's future stability over the next 8 weeks -- let alone the next 80 years. Have the pure dollar deflationistas skipped the Taleb? Sometimes we wonder.

The U.S. has a unique and deep relationship with Saudi Arabia, historically the world's largest oil producer. This relationship that goes back almost a century, to the foundation of Saudi Aramco by Rockefeller oil interests (specifically Standard Oil of California) in 1933. From 1933 to 1971 the payment system was somewhat stable, characterized by gold clearing on the international level at a fixed price of dollars for gold. This continued until the French under de Gaulle began draining the US Treasury of its gold, due to the expense of America's involvment in the Vietnam war. The French gold redemptions ultimately lead to the unilateral default of the United States on its gold obligations and the death of Bretton Woods I, which had been created post World War II with the dollar as gold-backed world reserve currency.

What has characterized our international system since 1971, or "Bretton Woods II" as it is sometimes called, is this: 1) the gold futures clearing system, and related paper markets and 2) the ability to swap oil for gold via these markets using exclusively US Dollars. This has given implicit support to the U.S. dollar far beyond what could be reasonably imagined considering the U.S. fiscal situation -- in the sense that the dollar is supported as long as 1) oil is for sale in dollars and 2) gold is for sale in dollars. This does not always have to be the case, and this is the core of the issue. If gold goes into permanent backwardation it will no longer be for sale in dollars on COMEX. Period. This will implicitly cut off oil flows to a trickle until payment is re-linked to gold via the IMF SDR or another mechanism.

To many of us, it is obvious the US equity markets will soon crash, but the real crisis will come with the failure of our currency -- a currency which is IMPLICITLY and historically linked with trading of both dollars for oil, and dollars for gold. Thus, these spot markets are the ones to watch. Some may be aware Russia recently surpassed Saudi Arabia as the world's number 1 oil producer -- and last week , number 2 oil producer Saudi Arabia has signed a $2bn weapons deal with Moscow. The final strategic alignment of Saudia Arabia and the rest of the Middle East remains up for debate, but we have certainly witnessed the tentative steps of the BRIC nations and their affiliated satellites to build their own international clearing system, based in Hong Kong and Moscow, rather than New York and London. Ultimately this will probably involve some form of the IMF SDR -- rebalanced with new currencies and possibly a gold component. Remember Medvedev at the G8?

Minus the political shifts towards a 'multipolar' world (prior to the onset of the final bloody form of the Hegelian dielectic), the weakest point in the present system is certainly the U.S. Dollar. Indeed there are many angles for speculative currency attack. And there are many weak points at which this may simply happen by accident. Assuming we see such an external speculative attack, what can we expect?

1) A currency failure will happen rapidly (likely overnight to 8-12weeks). The dollar will devalue against gold and oil. We are talking 50% decline or more.
2) Gold will go into backwardation (aka Spot Price above Near-Futures Price). This is the single most important indicator.
3) The Gold price will vault upwards -- and ultimately trading will halt in USD.
4) Oil will likely vault upwards as well, but this analysis is difficult. The gold:oil ratio is a useful indicator.

Where will capital flow during a time of a systemic crisis? Since 1971, capital has moved up this chart. Now it is reversing. Capital will flow into government bonds, treasury bills, physical cash, and ultimately its final home, gold.

There are all sorts of other things that may occur under conditions of currency failure, but you can find these sorts of analysis elsewhere. Use your imagination, as Hannah Arendt might suggest. Or google teotwawki and crack open a beer. The point here is that our present system is very fragile and cannot last much longer in its present form. It is far too unstable. There will be a collapse , and out of this a new system will emerge. The only guarantee of your purchasing power is in physical gold coins which you have in your possession. This is why the Zerohedge Dog, Scooby, keeps 20% or more of his assets in physical gold coins, and at least another 10-20% in physical cash with which to pay his bills. The world is changing, and to cope with the new reality requires both discernment and imagination.

China Embarks on USTreasury Dumping

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Jim Willie

While all manner of attention remains transfixed inside the United States on a remedy and recovery of its bank sector, once again Americans make dangerous assumptions. They tend to assume that the US Federal Reserve near 0% interest rates, Quantitative Easing (aka exploding Printing Pre$$ output), endless liquidity facilities (e.g. TALF), TARP funds (aka Wall Street slush fund), Stress Tests (rigged), bank stock sales (aided by FASB accounting fraud), bank carry trades (exploiting low short-term & higher long-term rates), and the passage of time can revive the US banking industry. They tend domestically to overlook the gradually worsening insolvency condition. Banks are bracing for a new wave of commercial mortgage losses, of prime Option ARMortgage losses, and credit card losses. The delinquency rate of prime Option ARMs is now higher than subprime home loans!!

Harken back to the summer 2007 when the hack USFed Chairman Bernanke called the bank crisis merely a subprime problem with upper limit potential for $200 billion in bank losses, and no risk of spilling over to the real USEconomy, and surely not the cause of any recession. Bernanke has understood next to nothing in advance, all forecasts hopelessly wrong, but is a great manager of the Printing Pre$$ Operation. So he is loved. This half blind man now is due for reappointment to USFed Chairman post, his past failure the qualifications for future service. The same is true of Treasury Secy Geithner, whose failure at the New York Fed was his qualification for current service. The approval of Bernanke is sure to cause a major rift with the Chinese credit masters. Their wishes and warnings have been ignored. Their vengeance is next.

The American perspective is almost always very limited in scope, due to chronic arrogance and delusions of grandeur. Their convenient parochial view tends to focus almost entirely within the United States, its bank leadership, its USFed monetary flexibility, its Wall Street syndicate influence, its federal tax latitude, its bank reserves management, and more. THE REAL THREAT TO US BANKS COMES FROM ENEMIES AT THE GATES, FOREIGN CREDITORS. The dangerous assumption made is that foreign creditors will remain firm and loyal. The arrogance extends from the continued belief that they have no choice, even if the trillion$ frauds on Wall Street occurred, even though such frauds were never prosecuted.

The real threat comes from foreign creditors who must contend with challenges greater than ever experienced, such as:

• Shrinking or vanished trade surpluses during global slowdown
• Their own financial systems in tatters (banks, stock & bonds, currencies)
• Vast regional construction booms gone bust (e.g. Dubai)
• Numerous nationwide housing bubbles gone bust
• Gathering storm from the need to liquidate insolvent banks
• Reserves erosion due to over-weight in US$-based bonds
• Systemic problems extended from a generation of USDollar reliance.

UAE & CHINA

Take just two important examples, the Persian Gulf and China. Other regions bloated with USTreasurys exist, like Europe and Russia, eager to unload them in what soon could become a torrent. The regional construction boom in the Arab world has an epicenter in Dubai. Unfortunately, it has gone bust, and loudly so. If not for the prompt aid by Abu Dhabi bankers, a vast liquidation of Dubai would have embarrassed them in front of the world. Instead, a new threat comes. The Abu Dhabi rescue next must contend with an indigestion problem, as USTreasurys and likely other US$-based bonds are flooding their banking system. They might own a considerable batch of US bank stocks, soon to be dumped. Ambition led to a whiff of hubris, as fantastic architectural design led to large scope, seen in the skyscrapers and bridges. Not shown are the spectacular communities designed as trees with branches and leaf petals, many empty, busted, and without investment income. But they overdid it, and now must deal with corporate failures and liquidation challenges. But the Persian Gulf bank failures represent the clear and present threat. The outsized projects have yielded to outsized rescues and next outsized indigestion to handle the funds in ways so as to avoid a string of national bank failures. Vast liquidations come, word comes from contacts.

A bank panic in the Persian Gulf could ensue very soon, a back door threat. It would clearly have origins in the United Arab Emirates, spread to the entire Persian Gulf like to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and elsewhere. From this global toehold, the bank panic could then spread to London, New York, and points in Europe. The UAE bankers must manage their situation. They are loaded to the gills with USTreasurys, the main currency used in the liquidations and rescues local to the UAE. They also have pet stock accounts in big US banks. As further liquidations occur, avoidance of bank failures seems a remote prospect. Watch the enemies at the gates, outside looking in, in urgent need of dumping USTreasury Bonds and other US$-denominated securities.

China must contend with some unique problems. From 2000 to 2005, they insisted on a rigid currency structure of the Yuan pegged firmly to the USDollar. In doing so, they became the 51st state, yoked firmly to the USEconomy and subject completely to the USFed monetary policy. Yet they had no voting rights on USDollar policy. Ironically, now they do as chief creditor nation. Nobody thought twice about accumulation of Chinese debt to replace US income. It was the insane movement known as the ‘Low Cost Solution’ at the time, a policy that the great majority accepted as the next chapter of progress in the Globalization movement, a policy based in corporate abandonment of US shores. Some, like the Jackass and other analysts on some of these gold journal websites, gave loud warning of a time bomb in construction certain to explode down the road. We are now down the road, reaping the bitter rotten harvest of the latest Economic Myth chapter.

China is experiencing a 40%+ decline in export trade. They have a mammoth $550+ billion stimulus plan that might have run its course. They have banks that are failing on a low level. Their stimulus might have found its way as much to their Shanghai stock market as to bank lending. Their industrial expansion is primarily linked to global trade and the export markets. As much as they would like to generate internal demand, it cannot prevent over 1000 industrial plants from shutdown, already done. More are to come. They respond with Yuan-based swap facilities in numerous foreign lands, but that can only accomplish so much in export markets. China is actively attempting to diversify its reserves. The reality (not a joke) is that they are trying to cobble together 2000 different $1 billion deals to secure hard assets in exchange for USTreasury Bonds, enough to dump their $2000 billion US$-based hoard at risk. They are acquiring stakes in foreign mining firms, stakes in mining projects, and entire properties. They are cutting fewer but larger energy deals, which include development of infrastructure and communities. The inescapable fact of life is that China has embarked on an USTreasury dumping initiative. They are even acquiring industrial property in Europe, unloading up to $10 billion per month in USTBonds. This aids the Euro Central Bank, stuck with too much bad debt from its southern member nations. They are dealing with the impaired debt from PIGS nations by means of vast commercial and industrial property sales. Discounts are being seen for both the USDollar and British Pound Sterling.

Obama's no leader, he's just another politician

Even democrats are loosing faith in Obama.

Gold rally met with ferocious resistance from bullion banks

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Ed Steer notes:
I said yesterday that Wednesday's gold o.i. numbers would be "u-g-l-y". In actual fact, they were beyond u-g-l-y. Gold o.i. rose by one of the largest amounts that I've ever seen in the ten years that I've been involved in the precious metals market...26,051 contracts. Total open interest is now 410,754 contracts, and yesterday's volume was a very large 165,302 contracts. Silver was better, with o.i. rising 'only' 1,629 contracts to 108,300 contracts of total open interest... on volume of 33,296... which is a lot.

It should be obvious to anyone that this price rally in gold is being met with ferocious resistance from the bullion banks, who are going short against every long placed. Without a doubt, they piled on the short positions again on Thursday... and I won't be going too far out on a limb to say that we are very near to having the largest net short position in gold in the history of the Comex. That's about 265,000 Comex contracts, or 26.5 million ounces of gold... more than one third of 2009 gold production held short by a handful of bullion banks. And two U.S. bullion banks are short about 18 million ounces of that total. Where the hell is the CFTC???

And, as I mentioned yesterday, because all this price action began on Wednesday, none of what's been happening since the Tuesday cut-off, will be in today's Commitment of Traders report. And, to add insult to injury, today is also the release date for the Bank Participation Report for positions held also as of the Tuesday cut-off... so none of this action will be in there either. Coincidence??? Not bloody likely.

As you can imagine, Ted Butler and I spent a fair amount of time yesterday talking about this whopping increase in open interest. Neither one of us were happy campers. But we both agreed on how it was going to end. Either the bullion banks get totally overrun and we have the much vaunted "Commercial Signal Failure" or, at some point down the road, the bullion banks [who will then be short even more obscene amounts of gold and silver] will engineer a sell-off and we all get our heads handed to us... again. There's just no other way out. It's only a matter of timing as to which way this all ends.

The Comex Delivery Report showed that three gold and 145 silver contracts were delivered yesterday. And, for the first time in a while, there was activity at both the GLD and SLV ETFs. The GLD took in 470,959 ounces... 14.65 tonnes. Over at SLV, they finally added some silver... 1,967,020 ounces... after taking out over 5 million ounces during the prior five business days. There was no report from the U.S. Mint yesterday, and a smallish 36,482 ounces of silver were removed from the Comex-approved warehouses.

The usual New York gold commentator did not put in an appearance at all yesterday, so I [regrettably] have no story from him. However, as a consolation prize of sorts, here's an interview I did with Al Korelin of Korelin Economics yesterday. In it, I elaborate on the current major escalation in the gold price, and the link is here.

Moments after I filed my commentary in the wee hours of Thursday morning, I ran into the following gold story filed at marketwatch.com, which is now widely disseminated on the Internet, but here it is again... "Hong Kong is pulling all its physical gold holdings from depositories in London, transferring them to a high-security depository newly built at the city's airport, in a move that won praise from local traders Thursday." The link is here.

The next story is another one I found shortly after I filed my Thursday commentary. It's a story posted over at mineweb.com and is introduced as follows... "Reports suggest that China's main sovereign wealth fund and other state entities are under pressure to invest in strategic Western assets as the country tries to offload its dollars for firmer-based wealth including gold and oil." The headline reads "Chinese sovereign wealth fund dumping dollars for strategic investments like gold"... and the link is here.

Here's a gold story that appeared over at cnbs.com yesterday. I remember three years ago when the first stories about gold began appearing in the main-stream press... and how ecstatic I was at the time. Now they're commonplace. This one is special in two ways: first of all, it's talking about a four-digit gold price; and secondly, the lead-off paragraph mentions that investors are now taking physical possession of the metal, as they are becoming wary of other investment choices... and rightly so. I thank Donna from Florida for sending this along, and the headline reads "Gold Rush by Many Investors Could Push Price Up to $1,200"... and the link is here.

The next piece contains only one paragraph and one chart, which should take about a minute of your time. It appears that the U.S. Treasury has just announced another Treasury auction for next week... where $70 billion will be created out of thin air. Click on the chart to get the 'big picture'. I thank Craig McCarty for sending it along, and the link to the zerohedge.com 'story' headlined "$128 Billion in Total Treasuries On Deck, $70 Billion in Bonds"... is here.

And lastly is this story from The Times in London. Apparently the $1.1 trillion global rescue package agreed by G20 leaders in London in April, is in serious danger of coming apart at the seams... and Prime Minister Gordon Brown is trying to save whatever's left of his crumbling legacy... as this was his baby. The headline reads "Gordon Brown's $1 trillion global rescue package unravels". Once again I thank Craig McCarty for the story, and the link is here.

So... where do we go from here? Silver is now entering oversold territory, with gold close behind. Can we go higher from here? Absolutely! Can 'da boyz' engineer a sell-off from this point? Absolutely! It's my opinion that this bull run in gold could still have a lot of legs left to the upside, but I must admit that the record net short position in gold just screams of 'Danger Ahead.'

If we do go higher from here, it will follow one of two scenarios... either the bullion banks stand back and let this market run... or they continue to go short against the spec longs that have been entering the market in droves in the last several days. Which will it be? So far, it's been the latter option.

As I put this Friday commentary to bed, I note that not much happened in gold in Far East trading... and a small spike in silver during early morning trading in Sydney got hammered flat. But with London now open, I see that both metals have come under a bit of selling pressure from the U.S. bullion banks. But, as we've seen over the last few days, all the action [and volume] is in New York trading on the Comex... as it will be again today.

With the long weekend upon us, it will be interesting to see what sort of day the bullion banks have planned for us. I'm sure they don't want a gold price over $1,000 for everyone to talk about over the Labour Day long weekend. But as I told Al Korelin in my interview yesterday, every gold analyst out there [including yours truly] is making this up as we go along... so we'll just have to wait and see.

Those shifting from U-6 to U-1 are shockingly increasing

According to ZeroHedge, this report has to be read by all to fathom the reality of what is going on out there. "One who should not read it is Phil Orlando, who earlier over on CNBC made the 9.7% unemployment number seem like the desperately good thing that Federated Investors has been looking for all these years. Also, Phil apparently missed that those shifting out of U-6 to fill U-1 are, shockingly, increasing on a net basis, which kinda kills his uber-simplistic green shoot argument, but the 'argument' being made on CNBC, we will let it slide."

Lunch With Dave 090409

A Record 35 Million on Food Stamps

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Record breaking numbers received food stamps in June, the Department of Agriculture said on Thursday, with more than 35 million Americans receiving assistance. The numbers are 22 percent higher than in June 2008. The number of Americans receiving food stamps rose by more than 700,000 people compared to May. The USDA administers the food stamp program, which was renamed in October as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, through its Food and Nutrition Service. The program helps to cover grocery costs for poor Americans.

The average recipient of food stamps in June received more than $133 in assistance. The average household received more than $293. Overall, the USDA distributed more than $4.6 billion in food stamps in June. They went to 35,122,123 recipients. June was the eighth straight month that the number of people on food stamps rose.

Congressman Pete Stark makes a total a$$ of himself

Watch Congressman Pete Stark blow up when Jan Helfeld asks him why Stark believes, "the more we owe, the wealthier we are." I'm assuming Stark reasons that if government borrows money to invest, and the investment return is higher than the loan interest, the government makes money. But the government never invests money, the government only spends money. This guy is just one of an assortment of elected officials that haven't got a clue what's going on.

“Chimerica Headed For Divorce” -- a hard rain is coming

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Never a disappointing read – Russell has never lost site of the big picture despite the rapid short-term gyrations in the market. If you’re not a subscriber of the Dow Theory Newsletters I highly recommend it:

Niall Ferguson, MA, D.Phil., is Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University and William Ziegler Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School. He is also a Senior Research Fellow at Jesus College, Oxford University, and a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University.

I want to include a few paragraphs from a most important article by the brilliant Niall Ferguson, author of “The Ascent of Money, A Financial History of the world.” Ferguson’s article is about the coming “divorce” between the US and China. I believe the future of the world will revolve around the relationship of US and China. The Ferguson article appeared in Newsweek magazine (Aug. 21) and is entitled, “Chimerica Is Headed For Divorce.”

And I quote –

“Let’s look at the numbers. China’s holding of US Treasuries rose to $801.5 billion in May, an increase of 5% from the $763.5 billion in April. Call it $40 billion a month. And let’s imagine the Chinese do that every month through this fiscal year. That would be a credit line to the US government of $480 billion. Given that the total US deficit is forecast to be about $2 trillion, that means the Chinese may finance less than a quarter of total Federal-government borrowing — whereas a few years ago they were financing virtually the whole deficit.

“The trouble is that the Chinese clearly feel they have enough US government bonds. Their great anxiety is that the Obama administration’s very lax fiscal policy, plus the Federal Reserve’s policy of quantitative easing (in laymen’s terms, printing money) are going to cause one of two things to happen: the price of US bonds could fall and/or the purchasing power of the dollar could fall. Either way, the Chinese lose. Their current strategy is to shift their purchases to the short end of the yield curve, buying Treasury bills instead of 10-year bonds. But that doesn’t address the currency risk. In a best-selling book titled Currency Wars, Chinese economist Song Hongbing warned that the US has a bad habit of stiffing its creditors by letting the dollar slide. This, he points out, is what happened to the Japanese in the 1980s. First their currency strengthened against the dollar. Then their economy tanked.

“What is China’s alternative if it seeks a divorce from America? Call it the empire option. Instead of continuing in this unhappy marriage, the Chinese can go it alone, counting on their growing economic might (according to Goldman Sachs, China’s GDP could equal that of the US by 2027) to buy them global power in their own right. In some ways, they’ve already begun doing this. Their naval strategy clearly implies a challenge to US hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region. Their investments in African minerals and infrastructure look distinctly imperial too. And now the official line from Prime Minister Wen Jiaobao is to hasten the implementation of our ‘going out’ strategy and combine the utilization of foreign-exchange reserves with the ‘going out’ of our enterprises. That sounds like a Chinese campaign to buy foreign assets — exchanging dodgy dollars for copper mines.”

Russell Comment — I believe the above is a brilliant look at our international future. No nation (the US) can be both the world’s leader and world’s biggest debtor. In his fight to thwart the bear market, Bernanke is sowing the seeds for the future demise of the United States. The law of unintended consequences is about to become operative.

A huge problem ahead is this — will the dollar decline slowly, as it has been doing, or will the dollar crash, setting off a world crisis?

Prediction – Where ever you are now will be your best situation for years to come. The trick ahead will be to hold on to what you have. I’ve been warning that a “hard rain is a’coming.” So far, we’ve only experienced a drizzle.

Source

Patients made to die prematurely under Britain's NHS scheme

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I think most people concede the "Death Panel" hype was politicized, but as Michelle Malkin points out, "The effects of socialized medicine in Britain — engineered by government-run cost-cutting panels on which Obamacare would be modeled — continue to wreak havoc on the elderly and infirm."

*Elderly left at risk by NHS bidding wars to find cheapest care with reverse auctions

*Patients forced to live in agony after NHS refuses to pay for painkilling injections

*Elderly suffer in care shambles

*Twisted priorities that let the elderly suffer

*NHS neglects elderly depression.

And so it's not difficult to understand the fears U.S. senior citizens may harbor regarding a healthcare system that is even remotely modeled after Britain's form of socialized medicine, especially after reading items like the following in the Telegraph:

Sentenced to death on the NHS
Patients with terminal illnesses are being made to die prematurely under an NHS scheme to help end their lives, leading doctors have warned.

By Kate Devlin, Medical Correspondent

In a letter to The Daily Telegraph, a group of experts who care for the terminally ill claim that some patients are being wrongly judged as close to death. Under NHS guidance introduced across England to help doctors and medical staff deal with dying patients, they can then have fluid and drugs withdrawn and many are put on continuous sedation until they pass away. But this approach can also mask the signs that their condition is improving, the experts warn.

As a result the scheme is causing a “national crisis” in patient care, the letter states. It has been signed palliative care experts including Professor Peter Millard, Emeritus Professor of Geriatrics, University of London, Dr Peter Hargreaves, a consultant in Palliative Medicine at St Luke’s cancer centre in Guildford, and four others.

“Forecasting death is an inexact science,”they say. Patients are being diagnosed as being close to death “without regard to the fact that the diagnosis could be wrong.

“As a result a national wave of discontent is building up, as family and friends witness the denial of fluids and food to patients."

The warning comes just a week after a report by the Patients Association estimated that up to one million patients had received poor or cruel care on the NHS. The scheme, called the Liverpool Care Pathway (LCP), was designed to reduce patient suffering in their final hours. Developed by Marie Curie, the cancer charity, in a Liverpool hospice it was initially developed for cancer patients but now includes other life threatening conditions.

It was recommended as a model by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (Nice), the Government’s health scrutiny body, in 2004. It has been gradually adopted nationwide and more than 300 hospitals, 130 hospices and 560 care homes in England currently use the system. Under the guidelines the decision to diagnose that a patient is close to death is made by the entire medical team treating them, including a senior doctor.

They look for signs that a patient is approaching their final hours, which can include if patients have lost consciousness or whether they are having difficulty swallowing medication. However, doctors warn that these signs can point to other medical problems. Patients can become semi-conscious and confused as a side effect of pain-killing drugs such as morphine if they are also dehydrated, for instance.

When a decision has been made to place a patient on the pathway doctors are then recommended to consider removing medication or invasive procedures, such as intravenous drips, which are no longer of benefit. If a patient is judged to still be able to eat or drink food and water will still be offered to them, as this is considered nursing care rather than medical intervention.

Dr Hargreaves said that this depended, however, on constant assessment of a patient’s condition. He added that some patients were being “wrongly” put on the pathway, which created a “self-fulfilling prophecy” that they would die.

He said: “I have been practising palliative medicine for more than 20 years and I am getting more concerned about this “death pathway” that is coming in. “It is supposed to let people die with dignity but it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. “Patients who are allowed to become dehydrated and then become confused can be wrongly put on this pathway.” He added: “What they are trying to do is stop people being overtreated as they are dying. “It is a very laudable idea. But the concern is that it is tick box medicine that stops people thinking.”

He said that he had personally taken patients off the pathway who went on to live for “significant” amounts of time and warned that many doctors were not checking the progress of patients enough to notice improvement in their condition.

Prof Millard said that it was “worrying” that patients were being “terminally” sedated, using syringe drivers, which continually empty their contents into a patient over the course of 24 hours. In 2007-08 16.5 per cent of deaths in Britain came about after continuous deep sedation, according to researchers at the Barts and the London School of Medicine and Dentistry, twice as many as in Belgium and the Netherlands.

“If they are sedated it is much harder to see that a patient is getting better,” Prof Millard said. Katherine Murphy, director of the Patients Association, said: “Even the tiniest things that happen towards the end of a patient’s life can have a huge and lasting affect on patients and their families feelings about their care. “Guidelines like the LCP can be very helpful but healthcare professionals always need to keep in mind the individual needs of patients.

“There is no one size fits all approach.” A spokesman for Marie Curie said: “The letter highlights some complex issues related to care of the dying. “The Liverpool Care Pathway for the Dying Patient was developed in response to a societal need to transfer best practice of care of the dying from the hospice to other care settings. “The LCP is not the answer to all the complex elements of this area of health care but we believe it is a step in the right direction.”

The pathway also includes advice on the spiritual care of the patient and their family both before and after the death. It has also been used in 800 instances outside care homes, hospices and hospitals, including for people who have died in their own homes. The letter has also been signed by Dr Anthony Cole, the chairman of the Medical Ethics Alliance, Dr David Hill, an anaesthetist, Dowager Lady Salisbury, chairman of the Choose Life campaign and Dr Elizabeth Negus a lecturer in English at Barking University.

A spokesman for the Department of Health said: “People coming to the end of their lives should have a right to high quality, compassionate and dignified care. "The Liverpool Care Pathway (LCP) is an established and recommended tool that provides clinicians with an evidence-based framework to help delivery of high quality care for people at the end of their lives.

"Many people receive excellent care at the end of their lives. We are investing £286 million over the two years to 2011 to support implementation of the End of Life Care Strategy to help improve end of life care for all adults, regardless of where they live.”

Gold on the verge of breaking out big time!

Image via Wikipedia

What about you? Sold your gold lately? Sold your gold due to an inevitable correction coming due? Sold your gold because of a tremendous short position build up with the bullion banks? Sold your gold because the bullion banks are so smart and always right? Sold your gold because of an imminent deflationary collapse which would bring down gold prices to absurd lows of $300 or less?

Well, the list of bearish arguments goes on and on but the reality is that nothing fundamentally has ever changed. In other words, those very same fundamentals which took gold up from $250 in 2001 to almost $1000 today are still in place.

With the end of the US dollar as world’s sole reserve currency in sight gold is poised for a monster rally towards $5000 or more. Yes, ultra bearish reports for gold are surfacing almost on daily basis now and yes, 12 reasons to short gold seems to be the tune of the day these days and yes, conspiracy theories to suppress the gold price are being ridiculed by western media as never before so yes, for newcomers to the gold market it’s difficult what and who to believe. Should they believe GATA which maintains the view that gold has been suppressed for more than a decade in order to maintain the illusion of a strong dollar? Or should they believe the mainstream gold organizations like GFMS who refer to the GATA crowd as a bunch nuts or even worse terrorists?

The simple truth is that GATA has done such tremendous research and has come up with so much evidence that even some major banks like Credit Agricole and CITI Group have published bullish reports on gold projecting $2000+ gold based on GATA’s findings. As John Embry of Sprott Asset Management once said, everyone with a IQ higher than a grapefruit should admit GATA has a point. Obviously GFMS Chairman Philip Klapwijk fails to meet Embry’s IQ criteria since he refuses to debate GATA on grounds you shouldn’t deal with terrorists.

To the newcomers in the gold market I would say please read the fictitious conversation between a staunch gold bull and GATA supporter (GB) and a mainstream investor (MI) who isn’t so sure what to believe these days. The conversation features discussions on traditional bearish arguments for gold, gold’s monetary role, the gold suppression scheme, GATA’s birth, the blatant lies from US government regarding its gold policies, Brown/Blair’s blatant lies after announcing the sale of half of Brittain’s gold in 1999, future for the US dollar, new world reserve currency, Chinese gold hoarding, etc.

I hope you agree with John Embry after reading this piece that GATA has a point indeed. It’s important to know what GATA knows since once you understand what western central banks have done to gold last decade you’ll understand why gold is heading to $5000 or more. Read More...

Gold Screaming On The 1-3-6 Rule

John Galt says,

Years ago a trader explained to me that if the 1 month, 3 month and 6 month Treasury yields dove towards zero and out of their “normal” range during a bull or bear market that there was a fear of a huge risk to the markets or other financial event occurring and that meant the big money as it is called, wanted to be in the safest of short term instruments that could be cashed out at maturity or sold on short notice to raise cash or return to the markets should it prove to be a non-event. Well, let us look at the history of this over the last three years and since the crisis began in February of 2007 when the first of the mid-sized mortgage finance companies started to collapse and a lot of us went “oh crap” and knew what was coming with this credit market implosion and eventual financial system collapse. Here is a 3 year chart of the 1 month Treasury continuous yield with notations.

Chinese Wealth Fund Dumping Dollars for Gold

Reports suggest that China's main sovereign wealth fund and other state entities are under pressure to invest in strategic Western assets as the country tries to offload its dollars for firmer-based wealth including gold and oil.

Lawrence Williams
LONDON -
Several reports are coming out of China that there is pressure on state-controlled organisations - notably the country's main sovereign wealth fund, China Investment Corporation (CIC) to rapidly build investment in non-Chinese enterprises. While the CIC itself, with apparent access to some $300 billion in funds - and the possibility of more from the government - may be concentrating on hedge funds and other investment entities, there is another sector for Chinese state-owned companies looking at major investment in commodities. Indeed with the funds available as China seems to be dumping its US dollars in favour of more concrete assets, virtually no minerals sector is safe from Chinese participation.

While CIC was set up only two years ago, funded with $200 billion in initial capital, a report to the U.S. Congress noted that according to top Chinese officials, it was created to improve the rate of return on China's $1.5 trillion in foreign exchange reserves and to soak up some of the nation's excess financial liquidity. Depending on its performance with the initial allotment of $200 billion, the CIC might be allocated more of China's growing stock of foreign exchange reserves - and this has already proved to be the case.

Probably the most interesting of the recent reports of what is happening with Chinese sovereign wealth fund investment outside China has come from Paul Mylchreest's Thunder Road Report where an ex-U.S. intelligence service member is quoted. He reports that he has a friend who is in the Chinese Sovereign Wealth fund sector who says - hearsay I know and it wouldn't stand up in court - indicated that the wealth fund analysts were working all hours of the day and night trying to put investment deals together - particularly in the oil and precious metals sectors. The conclusion is that China recognises that the U.S. dollar is going to tank and it wants to convert as much of its trillions of dollars of holdings into strategic assets as possible before the collapse really takes hold.

The trouble is there is too much money available chasing too few assets - and too little time available - or such is the conclusion. As a result the Chinese government seems to be doing its utmost in trying to persuade the Chinese public to buy gold and silver by relaxing the restrictions - it's now easier to buy precious metals in China than in the U.S. - and by pushing gold and silver investment on state-owned television. If this continues the likelihood is that China will permanently overtake India as the world's biggest buyer of gold and silver, while the country's store of wealth will help shield it against further western economic collapse.

If this is indeed the case then it must be likely that the country is also building its own gold reserves - perhaps surreptitiously - through creative accounting by buying by a state entity, but not through the Central Bank itself where such sales would need to be reported. Positive for gold looking forward.

Returning to the Sovereign Wealth Funds angle though, CIC's chairman, Lou Jiwei, is reported by the WSJ as saying that investment in CIC's global portfolio for "one month this year equalled that of the whole of last year" and that given that the fund is expecting a positive return on its investments this year it may well ask the government for additional funding. Where it is going to place additional funding, who knows but there seems little doubt that China is using the western recession to buy up assets on the cheap and the funds available to do this are virtually unlimited by Western standards. But the Chinese won't buy up any old rubbish. They'll be looking for the crème de la crème.

Already CIC has bought 17% of Canada's last real remaining diversified miner - Teck Corporation - smartly buying when the latter was only just beginning to recover from last year's collapse and it has to be likely that more minerals-strategic investments are on the cards or being negotiated, either by CIC or other state organisations. Chinalco's ultimately thwarted move into Rio Tinto would have been another such instance and the Chinese investments and takeovers of Australian miners and promises of huge funding for minerals rich African countries are other examples.

Some reckon that China will be the world's second biggest economy, overtaking Japan, within the next couple of years and will overtake the U.S. by 2030. If it continues the way it is going and the U.S. continues the way it is going, this could happen much sooner. Communism, Chinese style, is winning the war of economic dominance and soon the world will no longer rely on the dollar as its reserve currency, but the renminbi!

In an interesting, but perhaps disturbing footnote to the Thunder Road Report mentioned above, Paul Mylchreest comments that in Latin America, where he has been living for 25 years, for the first time he can remember, locals are now preferring their own currency to U.S. dollars. He goes on to finish with this comment: "If a fellow with no education, a poor diet, and inadequate medical treatment living at 3,500 metres above sea level can figure out that the US dollar is undesirable as a store of wealth, how much longer do you think it can last as the world's reserve currency."

FED Chairman Threatens Crash if Audited

Carl Herman with the Examiner says the following 7-minute video is one of the best he's ever seen in economics. It begins with Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke threatening an economic crash if Congress audits the Fed, moves to revealing headlines of financial corporate profits being socialized from gambling losses, then closes with Secretary of the Treasury Tim Geithner telling Congress that TARP is really a perpetual line of $700 billion credit for him to do with as he pleases as long as Bernanke agrees. That means, if Treasury can sell the troubled assets, that money returns to Geithner's private reserve to buy more assets. As you may know, Harvard's Elizabeth Warren, the chair for the Oversight Panel, reported to the Senate that Treasury is over-paying corporations by about 50%. That's a gift from us, the taxpayers, to the gambling-addicted plutocrats of $82 BILLION.

FHA Picks up Where Subprime Lenders Left Off

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Love this from Pragmatic Capitalist: David Rosenberg has some concise thoughts on a topic we’ve been banging the drum on for a long time – you can’t solve a debt crisis with more debt:

No wonder we are seeing a housing recovery, and it’s not just about the $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers. How does the White House possibly allow this extra goodie to expire in November? The FHA is picking up where subprime lenders left off: the agency has seen its mortgage business jump 70% in the past year (!) and its market share in just three years has gone from 3.0% to 23% — it is allowing borrowers to finance up to 96.5% of homes priced all the way up to $729,750. Guess what, the default rate has risen to nearly 7% from 5½% a year ago. And, it is the taxpayer that is going to be picking up this tab … again! So, the policy formula here is that after excessive leverage got us into this mess, is to encouraging even more debt and come to think of it, Cash-for-Clunkers did the exact same thing — enticing people who were probably quite content with their jalopy to take on more than $10 billion of new debt. Amazing. It’s like giving another bottle of scotch to the drunken sailor, but hey — we can’t have the economy weak going into a mid-term election year now, can we?

Obama Address to Students Across America September 8, 2009

President Obama’s Address to Students Across America September 8, 2009 -

Makers Of Vaccination Refuse To Take H1N1

Even scientists who helped develop the vaccine say THEY ARE NOT GOING TO TAKE IT AND URGE THEIR FRIENDS AND FAMILY NOT TO TAKE IT EITHER, says Wayne Madsen, an investigative journalist and RT contributor. Meanwhile, it has been reported that vets have found traces of the swine flu virus in birds. It was detected in turkeys at farms in Chile. So far swine flu has proved to be very contagious, but not more deadly than the common flu. However, scientists fear it may combine with avian flu, which is currently very dangerous but hard to pass on.

FL and Iowa Quarantine to Residence Orders 2009

FL Quarantine to Residence Order Apr 09 252

Home Quarantine Order Novelflu Filled in 4-30-09

1 in 3 Young Workers Live at Home With Parents

Image via Wikipedia

Tula Connell notes the findings of a new report that suggests many young adults under 35 are still living at home with their parents because they can’t afford to be on their own. Connell bases the findings on “Young Workers: A Lost Decade,” conducted in July 2009 by Peter D. Hart Research Associates for the AFL-CIO and the community affiliate Working America. The nationwide survey of 1,156 people follows up on a similar survey the AFL-CIO conducted in 1999. The deterioration of young workers’ economic situation in those 10 years is alarming.

AFL-CIO Secretary-Treasurer Richard Trumka summed up the report’s findings this way:

We’re calling the report “A Lost Decade” because we’re seeing 10 years of opportunity lost as young workers across the board are struggling to keep their heads above water and often not succeeding. They’ve put off adulthood—put off having kids, put off education—and a full 34 percent of workers under 35 live with their parents for financial reasons.

Just last week we learned that about 1.7 million fewer teenagers and young adults were employed in July than a year before, hitting a record low of 51.4 percent.

As AFL-CIO President John Sweeney said:

Young workers in particular must be given the tools to lead the next generation to prosperity. The national survey we’re releasing today shows just how broken our economy is for our young people…and what’s at stake if we don’t fix it.

Some of the report’s key findings include:

• 31 percent of young workers report being uninsured, up from 24 percent 10 years ago, and 79 percent of the uninsured say they don’t have coverage because they can’t afford it or their employer does not offer it.
• Strikingly, one in three young workers are currently living at home with their parents.
• Only 31 percent say they make enough money to cover their bills and put some money aside—22 percentage points fewer than in 1999—while 24 percent cannot even pay their monthly bills.
• A third cannot pay their bills and seven in 10 do not have enough saved to cover two months of living expenses.
• 37 percent have put off education or professional development because they can’t afford it.
• When asked who is most responsible for the country’s economic woes, close to 50 percent of young workers place the blame on Wall Street and banks or corporate CEOs. And young workers say greed by corporations and CEOs is the factor most to blame for in the current financial downturn.
• By a 22-point margin, young workers favor expanding public investment over reducing the budget deficit. Young workers rank conservative economic approaches such as reducing taxes, government spending and regulation on business among the five lowest of 16 long-term priorities for Congress and the president.
• Thirty-five percent say they voted for the first time in 2008, and nearly three-quarters now keep tabs on government and public affairs, even when there’s not an election going on.
• The majority of young workers and nearly 70 percent of first-time voters are confident that Obama will take the country in the right direction.

U.S. Govt targets kids with massive swine flu ad campaign

The Washington Post reports three federal agencies are teaming up with the colorful muppets of Sesame Street to teach children and families how to prevent the spread of swine flu. These videos ostensibly help kids practice habits such as washing their hands and sneezing into their elbow. The CDC is also selling cuddly stuffed toys of the deadly H1N1 microbe complete with a pig-like nose and eyes.

While these government awareness campaigns serve to inform children, they also indirectly condition children and parents to be more receptive to receiving the toxic swine flu vaccination. If the swine flu virus recombines into a new strain as many in the medical community suspect, the H1N1 vaccines such as Tamiflu will be useless, and only serve to enrich drug companies.

According to a study published online by the British Medical Journal, more than half of healthcare workers surveyed in Hong Kong said they would refuse to be vaccinated against swine flu because of a fear of side effects and doubts as to efficacy. Additionally, GP newspaper, a weekly newspaper for UK family doctors, conducted a survey of UK physicians regarding the swine flu vaccine and found that up to 60% of GPs may choose not to be vaccinated against swine flu, with many concerned about the safety of the vaccine.

Three Polish doctors and six nurses are facing criminal prosecution after 21 homeless people died following medical trials for a vaccine to the H5N1 bird-flu virus, according to The Telegraph's Matthew Day in Warsaw.

Natural News reports that "Aside from the dangerous ingredients many people already know about (like squalene or thimerosal), one of the key ingredients used in flu vaccines (including the vaccines being prepared for the swine flu pandemic) is the diseased flesh of African Green Monkeys. This is revealed in U.S. patent No. 5911998 - Method of producing a virus vaccine from an African green monkey kidney cell line. (http://www.patentstorm.us/patents/5...)

"As this patent readily explains, ingredients used in the vaccine are derived from the kidneys of African Green Monkeys who are first infected with the virus, then allowed to fester the disease, and then are killed so that their diseased organs can be used make vaccine ingredients. This is done in a cruel, inhumane 'flesh factory' environment where the monkeys are subjected to a process that includes 'incubating said inoculated cell line to permit proliferation of said virus.' Then: 'harvesting the virus resulting from step (c); and... (ii) preparing a vaccine from the harvested virus.'"

CDC selling cuddly stuffed toy of deadly H1N1 microbe

You can't make this stuff up. Yes, children, going to a FEMA camp is just like Disneyland.

Telegraph reports:

The stuffed toy has been designed to represent a "cuddlier" version of an H1N1 microbe, complete with a pig-like nose and eyes. The 7inch novelty is the latest creation of US-based doll company GIANTmicrobes, which specialises in producing huggable viruses and pests.

The firm's catalogue include soft toy interpretations of a range of sexually-transmitted infections including gonorrhea, syphilis and chlamydia. It also sells furry representations of bed bugs, mad cow disease, E.Coli, Ebola and MRSA. The company describes its toys as "great learning tools, as well as amusing gifts for anyone with a sense of humour". Each purchase comes with an information leaflet with details of the relevant infection.

The swine flu dolls are even for sale in the gift shop at the Atlanta, headquarters of the Centers for Disease Control, the US government agency charged with monitoring the outbreak. The toy, which is priced at $7.95, is available to British shoppers from the GIANTmicrobes website.

11alive.com

The fuzzy, stuffed toy that resembles a microbe of the H1N1 virus, commonly know as "swine flu" is sold in the CDC's gift shop, along with several other toy versions of microbes.

The toy is marketed and sold by a company called GIANTmicrobes. "Each of our GIANTmicrobes comes with an image and information about the real microbe it represents. They make great learning tools, as well as amusing gifts for anyone with a sense of humor," the company says on its website.

Fed and Treasury Set Up Scam of the Century

Image via Wikipedia

Lee Adler

While working on the Street in the early 1980s, thanks to reading people like Joe Granville, Richard Ney (The Wall Street Jungle), and Charles Mackay (Extraordinary Popular Delusions, etc.) I realized that the financial media was nothing more than the marketing arm of the Wall Street retail distribution network. Wall Street’s job is to distribute paper and transfer wealth from the many to the few, including, most importantly, itself. The media’s job is to transmit the sales pitch.

The financial infomercial media plays a crucial and integral role in that system, providing a platform for Wall Street’s professional shills to reach the masses. It is the greatest manipulative system in the world since Goebbels, mastering the art of repeating the Big Lie to perfection. When a shill comes on CNBC and says buy XYZ, his in house traders are the ones doing the selling.

One of the Big Lies is that the stock market discounts the future. We’ve had a big rally, so the economy must be about to get a lot better, so the story goes. But the truth is that the stock market is nothing more than a liquidity meter. It measures a very particular type of liquidity. It mostly measures how much cash is burning a hole in the pockets of the dealer community.

Right now, thanks to the Fed, the dealer community, particularly the Fed’s Primary Dealers who dominate not only the Treasury market but the stock market as well, are rolling in oceans of cash, pumped directly to them by the Fed. They are using most of it to pay down debt by selling much of their questionable assets to the Fed, particularly mortgage debt and corporate debt, but they are using some of it to manipulate stocks higher. They do that because, one, it’s easy for them to do it, and two, because it’s much easier to get the suckers, oops, I mean the buy side institutions, to take the other side of the trade when prices are rising.

So as long as the Fed pumps this cash to them, stock prices will go up. It has nothing to do with the economy. It has nothing to do with discounting the future. The idea that stock prices discount the future is ridiculous. Stock markets are comprised of people, or at least the people who wrote the computer programs that do most of the millisecond trading that dominates price action. People, by and large, are not very good at predicting the future. That’s especially true of economists, pundits, and most of all, portfolio managers, whose only real interest is in not doing anything different than what the majority of portfolio managers are doing. How in the world can a portfolio manager properly manage money when one of the mandates of the industry is to stay fully invested. The best they can hope for is to do better than their peers. They can do nothing to protect your assets in the event of systemic collapse, such as we are now facing.

In continuing to spread the lies this time around, the media helps to insure that for the foreseeable future there will be no recovery from this economic and financial mess. The media continues to feature the same people telling the same idiotic stories, pursuing the same tried and true practices of distributing insider stock, especially their own, at high prices to the masses. The cash goes right from our pockets to the pockets of the financiers, with the media getting a huge cut in the process. They are co conspirators in a massive criminal scheme, some of it legal, some of it not, to separate people from their money.

This time they did it a little too well, and therein lies a problem for the economy. Few have any money left to transfer. The Fed and Treasury have set up a scam over the past year to make it look as if there’s still money, but what they have actually done is to transfer risk from the private sector to the public sector, in other words us, current and future generations of US taxpayers. In the process they’ve pumped a couple of trillion of new government debt into the economy and the markets over the past couple of months making it look as though everything is gonna be all right.

All right.

All ri-i-ight.

But it’s not gonna be all right. In fact, things are getting worse as we speak, and they will continue to get worse for the short term, the intermediate term, and the long term– for as long as the same people are in charge who caused this mess in the first place; for as long as the media continues to give a platform to those same people who were responsible for all the–let’s call them what the are–crimes– that put us where we are. For as long as those in power in Washington give those same people the same power they have always had, rather than punishing them for their “mistakes”, we are going to be in this mess.

So now we have transferred trillions of bad debt, some of it completely worthless paper, on to the books of the Fed and the Federal Government. What can the outcome possibly be? Ultimately default? Devaluation? Hyperinflation? Slow motion economic collapse such as that which is currently under way? Even finally the collapse of government and society? Anything is possible, given how insane these policies are and how clueless our policy makers have been and continue to be.

For example, the government has committed to take on $1.45 trillion of mortgage debt in various forms. In most cases the equity has been wiped out. There’s no margin of safety in those mortgages. The government will lose countless billions on its investments. We, the people, will somehow have to pay for that. Meanwhile, the financiers in the middle of the mess in the first place are still there. If they’re not still running the show, they’ve run off somewhere with the billions that they have skimmed and scammed off the top.

Now the media reports that, gee! the government is actually making money from the investments it has made in bailing out the banks. But the Fed and the Government are just playing the same game the banks played, reporting the “operating profit” while not reporting the mushrooming mountain of bad debt on their books. This is the very same garbage that got us here in the first place, except now the government is taking a page from the banks and financial institutions that mastered the art of hiding bad debt. It’s sickening, but no one in the mainstream media questions it.

Where are the real journalists? Not working for the mainstream media, that’s for sure. They’re still giving a free pass to the power brokers.

Forbes has asked me what data I like to look at. One of the things I featured just today in one of my reports to subscribers is Federal tax collections so far in August. They were down 13% versus last August to date. July was down less than 6% year to year. Where are the green shoots? The government has disbursed $227 billion more into the economy this month than it did at the same point last August. And yet tax collections continue to collapse, indicating that economic activity is doing likewise.

Source: US Treasury One of the problems is that zero interest rates forces both people and businesses to liquidate principle in order to pay the bills. So the capital pie shrinks. A shrinking capital base means shrinking income. Shrinking income means that people will need to liquidate even more capital. The system collapses in a chain reaction. Government programs have done nothing to change that. They’ve masked the degenerative process for a time with all that spending, but they’ve done it only by adding more debt to the government’s balance sheet. At the same time, debt in the private sector, and hence money, is being destroyed. We see it in all manner of lending statistics, from bank loans, to mortgage credit, to commercial paper. And we see it in the rising tide of mortgage defaults. People can’t pay or won’t pay. So they don’t. This is what’s backing our “money”.

Click to enlarge

Source: Federal Reserve

Click to enlarge

Meanwhile lending institutions and now the government pretend that the losses don’t exist, reporting unbelievably, that the money supply hasn’t collapsed along with everything else. They have no choice. They have to keep the con going, lest there be one final, fatal run on the banks and/or the money market funds.

The Fed’s zero interest rate policy is causing the very contraction it is seeking to avoid because it does not allow anyone to earn a fair and reasonable return on their investments. In order to pay the bills people and business must liquidate assets. At the same time, they are desperately trying to pay off debt. So the pie shrinks and money disappears.

The media is fond of saying that no one in the mainstream saw this coming except Roubini. How stupid is this? The media is the sole decision maker about who we get to pay attention to. If they feature only liars and fools, then of course it will seem that no one saw this coming. And they feature almost entirely liars, fools, and criminal manipulators.

Let’s consider who got this right in addition to Roubini. How about Professors Case and Shiller, and Niall Ferguson. How about Nassim Taleb. What about Warren Buffet’s warnings about derivatives? How about George Soros? Jimmy Rodgers?

What about Ron Paul, whose warnings fell on deaf ears for years. Congressional hearings? Ron Paul? Oops, time to cut to a commercial!

What about Doug Noland of the Prudent Bear Funds’ Credit Bubble Bulletin who has correctly been chronicling and forecasting this mess for a decade. What about Bill Fleckenstein and David Tice, and Peter Shiff? What about John Hussman? What about Robert Prechter? Bill Bonner of the Daily Reckoning? Mark Faber? What about Martin Weiss? There were many more like them. Why did we almost never see these guys on the tube or in print. And why, when we did see them, was the usual purpose to ridicule and harass them?

Because the media was and is a co-conspirator, witting or unwitting, with the Wall Street criminal distribution machine. The media is populated by conformist morons, too fat and lazy, too coddled by their Wall Street sponsors to be bothered by anything so mundane as to search for the truth. I mean, it’s not like it was hard to find.

What about all those guys in the wackosphere like my colleague Russ Winter, or Mike Shedlock, or even me for goodness sakes? I know I don’t count because only a few thousand people have ever heard of me, and half of them only know me as Dr. Stepan N. Stool. But there were dozens, if not hundreds, of bloggers who saw this coming for years. I was far from alone.

What about all the thousands of ordinary people who have participated on our message boards down through the years? They knew. But again, the media decides what the public gets to see and hear. The media decided that the “Cassandras” were only to be featured on occasion as objects of ridicule. And now that the economic data has stopped going down for a couple of months and the stock market has been going up, they are once again the subject of scorn.

Click to enlarge

Then there’s the 5,000 people surveyed by the Conference Board every month. Look at how many of them had soured on things in 2006 and 2007, versus their level of optimism in 1999 and 2000.

A whole lot of ordinary people “got it.” Only the mainstream infomercial media didn’t get it, because they are, after all, on the payroll of the Wall Street Mob.

The fact is that the economy is not getting better. It is not healing. Nothing goes down in a straight line, especially when a government throws a couple trillion in debt at it. But those trillions are not endless. The kindness of strangers, namely foreign central banks who buy that debt, is not without limit. The time will come when the government will not be able to float more debt to pay off the existing debt, when the burden of paying back these wildly reckless bets will fall directly on the back of the US taxpayer.

We are facing a crisis much greater than any we have faced so far. The Fed will not continue to pump cash into the pockets of the Primary Dealers indefinitely as they have been doing since March. When that cash gusher stops, or even slows, the stock market will again collapse. It simply cannot be sustained at these levels without that subsidy.

As for the economy, over the next year, it will get worse, for all the reasons enumerated above. How much worse, I have no clue. I’m not an economist, thank goodness. What an embarrassment that would be. Obviously they have no clue either. They pretend. That’s all. They missed the biggest collapse in the last 75 years. Knowing what’s likely to happen is not their job. Their job is to talk a good game so that Wall Street can continue its game.

Ripping off the rest of us.

So Good Night, and Good Luck.

You’re going to need it.

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Misinformation Alert: Barney Frank Never Said That HR 1207 Will Pass In October

Missing Sentence in Transcript Causes Premature HR 1207 Victory Celebration

Several blogs and forums reported that Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, Barney Frank, said that Ron Paul’s bill to audit the Federal Reserve, HR 1207, will pass in October.

Incorrect Reports about Barney Frank’s Statement on HR 1207

• Washington Times: Barney Frank says Ron Paul bill will pass
• Politico: Barney: Fed audit bill will pass in October
• Business Insider: Barney Frank: Yes, We Will Pass Ron Paul’s “Audit The Fed” Bill
• United Liberty: Frank: Vote on HR 1207 in October
• Daily Paul: Video: Barney Frank Says House Will Pass HR1207 in October
• ZeroHedge: Barney Frank Says The House Will Pass HR 1207 In October
• Mish: Barney Frank Says Ron Paul’s Audit The Fed Bill Will Pass In October – (Update posted)
• Washington Independent: Ron Paul’s ‘Audit the Fed’ Bill to Get October Vote?

The source of the rumor seems to be the following video.

A sloppy and incomplete transcript, which appears to have originated at the Washington Times which was originally prepared by Mish and then copied by the Washington Times, is making the rounds. The transcript is missing an essential sentence, which is marked in bold:

Barney Frank: “I have been pushing for more openness from the Fed. I want to restrict the powers of the Federal Reserve. First of all, the Fed will be the major losers of power if we are successful, as I believe we will be, setting up a financial product protection commission. The Federal Reserve is now charged with protecting consumers. They were supposed to do subprime mortgage restrictions.

Congress in 1994 gave the Fed powers to ban subprime mortgages. Alan Greenspan refused to do it. They had the power to ban credit card abuses. Under Greenspan they did nothing. Under Bernanke they started but only after Congress acted.That’s one of the reasons why in the new consumer protection agency, we will take away from the Federal reserve the power to go consumer protection.

Secondly, they have has since 1932 a right under Herbert Hoover to intervene in the economy whenever they could. Last September, the Federal Reserve they were going to advance $82 billion to AIG. I was kind of surprised and said, ‘Mr Bernanke do you have $82 billion?’ Mr. Bernanke replied, ‘I have $800 billion and under section 13.3 of the Federal Reserve Act they can lend anything they want.’

We are going to curtail that lending power. We are going to put some restrictions on it.

Finally we will subject them to a complete audit. I have been working with Ron Paul, who is the main sponsor of that bill. He agrees that we don’t want to have the audit appear as if it influences monetary policy as that would be inflationary.

One of the things the audit will show you is what the Federal Reserve buys itself. And that will be made public, but not instantly because if it was made instantly people would be trading off it, so the data would be released after a time period of several months, enough time so it will not be market sensitive. That will be part of the overall federal regulation that we are redacting. This will probably pass in October.”

(Accurate transcript here.)

With “This will probably pass in October”, Frank is referring not to HR 1207, but to his own financial regulation bill, which might or might not include some aspects of Ron Paul’s HR 1207. The preceding sentence, “That will be part of the overall federal regulation that we are redacting,” is for some reason missing from the widely distributed transcript, and has therefore been completely ignored by bloggers and commentators.

In recent weeks Ron Paul repeatedly warned against just this sort of thing happening: that HR 1207 might become part of a more comprehensive financial regulation bill and be watered down so that it appeases the angry masses without instituting any real changes. It would be an irony of history if that happened — if HR 1207 were watered down and integrated into an unconstitutional bill that Ron Paul would have to vote against.

What did Ron Paul really say?

It has become fashionable for the political elite to try to distort Ron Paul’s statements for political gain or even put entirely new words into his mouth. Just the other day, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said, “Even [Ron Paul] recognizes how important it is to us to have the Fed independent of politics.”

Now Barney Frank claims that “[Ron Paul] agrees that we don’t want to have the audit appear as if it influences monetary policy as that would be inflationary.”

Ron Paul never said that an audit of the Federal Reserve would be inflationary. In fact, he has credibly demonstrated the exact opposite: that the secretive Federal Reserve itself is responsible for inflation, with the dollar having lost 96% of its value since the Fed’s creation in 1913.

Here is what Ron Paul actually said about HR 1207, the bill to audit the Federal Reserve, and why only a real audit will protect the public’s interest.

Ron Paul: “Mr. Speaker, the big guns have lined up against HR 1207, the bill to audit the Federal Reserve. What is it that they are so concerned about? What information are they hiding from the American people? The screed is: transparency is okay except for those things they don’t want to be transparent.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, argues that HR 1207, the legislation to audit the Federal Reserve, would politicize monetary policy. He claims that monetary policy must remain independent, that is; secret. He ignores history because chairmen of the Federal Reserve in the past, especially when up for reappointment, do their best to accommodate the president with politically driven low interest rates and a bubble economy.

Former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Arthur Burns, when asked about all the inflation he brought about in 1971 before Nixon’s reelection, said that the Fed has to do what the president wants it to do, or it would lose its independence. That about tells you everything.

Not by accident Chairman Burns strongly supported Nixon’s program of wage and price controls the same year, but I guess that’s not political. Is not making secret deals with the likes of Goldman Sachs, international financial institutions, foreign governments and foreign central banks politicizing monetary policy?

Bernanke argues that the knowledge that their discussions and decisions will one day be scrutinized will compromise the freedom of the Open Market Committee to pursue sound policy. If it is sound and honest and serves no special interest, what’s the problem?

He claims that HR 1207 would give power to Congress to affect monetary policy. He dreamt this up to instill fear, an old statist trick to justify government power. HR 1207 does nothing of the sort. He suggested that the day after an FOMC meeting, Congress could send in the GAO to demand an audit of everything said and done. This is hardly the case. The FOMC function under HR 1207 would not change.

The detailed transcripts of the FOMC meetings are released every 5 years, so why would this be so different and what is it that they don’t want the American people to know? Is there something about the transcripts that need to be kept secret, or are the transcripts actually not verbatim?

Fed sycophants argue that an audit would destroy the financial markets’ faith in the Fed. They say this in the midst of the greatest financial crisis in history brought on by none other than the Federal Reserve. In fact, Chairman Bernanke stated on November 14th 2007, “A considerable amount of evidence indicates that Central Bank transparency increases the effectiveness of monetary policy and enhances economic and financial performance”.

They also argue that an audit would hurt the value of the U.S. dollar. In fact, the Fed, in less than a 100 years of its existence, has reduced the value of the 1914 dollar by 96%.

They claim HR 1207 would raise interest rates. How could it? The Fed sets interest rates and the bill doesn’t interfere with monetary policy. Congress would have no say in the matter and besides, Congress likes low interest rates.

It is argued that the Fed wouldn’t be free to raise interest rates if they thought it necessary. But Bernanke has already assured the Congress that rates are going to stay low for the foreseeable future. And again, this bill does nothing to allow Congress to interfere with interest rate setting.

Fed supporters claim that they want to protect the public’s interest with their secrecy. But the banks and Wall Streets are the opponents of HR 1207, and the people are for it. Just who best represents the public’s interest?

The real question is: why are Wall Street and the Fed so hysterically opposed to HR 1207? Just what information are they so anxious to keep secret? Only an audit of the Federal Reserve will answer these questions.”

75% Want A Real Audit

We need to keep up the pressure to make sure that HR 1207 itself is put up for vote. 75% of the American people want a real audit of the Federal Reserve, not a pretend investigation that goes to great pains not to ruffle any feathers, claiming that too close a look at what the Wizard is doing behind the curtain would be “inflationary” (Frank) and “problematic for the country” (Geithner).