Saturday, November 21, 2009

A/H1N1 has mutated to something more deadly - 1918 RBD D225G in Lung Cases in Ukraine and Norway

OseltamivirImage via Wikipedia

1918 RBD D225G in Lung Cases in Ukraine and Norway
Recombinomics Commentary 11:29
November 21, 2009

For the two 1918 HA variants, the South Carolina (SC) HA (with Asp190, Asp225) bound exclusively alpha2-6 receptors, while the New York (NY) variant, which differed only by one residue (Gly225), had mixed alpha2-6/alpha2-3 specificity, especially for sulfated oligosaccharides.

The above description is from a paper analyzing receptor binding domain differences in sequences from the 1918 pandemic. The New York variant had D225G, the same change found in lung tissues from fatal swine H1N1 sequences in Brazil, Ukraine, and Norway. The above result clearly demonstrated a change in receptor specificity for D225G, which was present in A/New York/1/1918 and A/London/1/1919, demonstrating the same change I 1918 that has been described in 2009. Although WHO stated that this change was "not significant" in the Ukraine samples, it was associated with the fatal cases and is cause for concern. The concern was increased by the announcement from Norway indicating the same change was found in fatal H1N1 lung infections there also.

Although there have been comments that this change was "spontaneous" and did not spread, the finding of the same change in all four deceased patients in Ukraine from two distinct locations, indicates it did spread, as did the finding of the same change in multiple cases in Brazil and Norway. Although the concept of "random mutation" has been used to explain away the sudden appearance of the same polymorphism on multiple backgrounds, the appearance via recombination is a much stronger argument for the same change to appear at multiple locations at the same time.

The spontaneous mutation theory, which is the foundation of WHO policy and statements on significance of changes relies heavily on a "selection" component, arguing that the same change keeps appearing on different backgrounds because of string selection pressure. However, this same phenomenon was described for a silent mutation on H5N1, which offers no clear selection pressure. Similarly, a silent change was also found in seasonal H1N1 in sequences that had acquired the Tamiflu resistance marker, H274Y. Thus, these silent (synonymous) changes string argue against a coincidental spontaneous mutation, and instead argue that this acquisition is concurrently acquired because of a widespread common donor.

The concept of acquisition via recombination has serious implications for the current pandemic. It was used to predict the D225G change, in part because the change was "in play" and appearing in July/August sequences at increasing frequency, even though the H1N1 sequences represented different genetic backgrounds. Similarly the clusters of Tamiflu resistance in Wales and North Carolina are also driven by recombination, as happened when the identical change was acquired in H1N1 seasonal flu in patients who were not taking Tamiflu (oseltamivir).

Thus, the concept of recombination predicts that the D225G receptor binding domain change, and the H274Y Tamiflu resistance change, which continue to spread via recombination


The Day The Dollar Died

Living In Fiction album coverImage via Wikipedia

John Galt
The following story is a potential fictional time line for the day the dollar died. I hope not to instill fear or loathing but to give everyone some perspective on a POSSIBLE outcome which does not really take much of a reach to come to any conclusion. Despite popular belief and promises from those who wish to rob you of your savings and investments, the collapse of the dollar might just be an event measured in hours, not days as their control is not what it seems….

Mike was less than an hour from home in Minnesota after dropping his load off in Fargo but knew he needed to top his tank off this Sunday evening to insure his rig would make it home. He pulled into the Petro Truck Stop just outside of Fargo and hopped out of the cab into the bitter twenty below temperatures which he could not believe had already hit at ten o’clock at night. He slid his fuel card into the pump waiting for the next prompt when the “SEE ATTENDANT” message flashed in the screen. He blustered, figured it was another card problem and whipped out his Master Card and slid it in after the pump reset and again the “SEE ATTENDANT” message flashed up. “What the hell is going on?” he thought to himself as he wandered into the long line of drivers boisterously yelling at managers and clerks alike.

Tom finished up his shift on the docks at the Nestle warehouse in Hampton, Georgia at exactly 11 o’clock at night and decided that because of the scuttlebutt he had been reading on the message boards, it may not be a bad idea to pick up a few cans of food and some toilet paper at the local WalMart Super center. Even though it was a Sunday night, they were always stocked and it was just five minutes out of the way to his home. As he walked inside the store, his mouth dropped. It looked like the day after Thanksgiving sale with every register open and ten plus people deep at 11:30 p.m. “Oh my God!” he gasped as he walked in grabbing the last shopping cart with the wheel that was half locked up. As he walked as fast as he could to the aisle with the paper goods, he looked at all the shelves then noticed the clerk who looked stunned himself. “How in the SAM HELL does WalMart sell out of Toilet Paper son?” he screamed at the eighteen year old kid. “Sir, I don’t know what is going on. Is the world ending? I’m a little freaked out!” the clerk stammered. Tom realized that he was not to blame and as he calmed down said to the kid “Son, I don’t know what is going on either. It must be an ice storm on the way. Are you folks getting another truck soon?” The clerk said in a very low voice “Sir, I think there are two coming at 2 a.m. I would wait here if I were you.” With that information Tom slinked outside to his car and called his wife at home just before midnight to tell her he would be staying to wait on the WalMart trucks.

1730 ET…February 21, 2010

It was a typical Sunday night in my household, a tremendous dinner, nice weather in Florida and of course a chance to chat with my friends online about the events of the world. The big news was that on Friday, February 19, 2010 the US Dollar Index closed at 69.07 far below any level in history and of course shattering all known technical support. As I grabbed a glass of Port and settled in front of my computer at 5 p.m. Eastern to watch the Asian fireworks and watch Bloomberg and CNBC-Asia on my computer, I noticed the Middle Eastern markets closed in horrid shape. The Israeli market closed three hours after the open and down 22% for the session. The Saudi markets closed after one hour and down 41%. Other regional markets did not open or were shut down due to national emergency declarations. As I tuned in expecting the usual repeat on Bloomberg, it was live with a somewhat excited news babe reading information from a blog reporting “rumors” that the CEO’s of Citigroup and Bank of America were in meetings since 11 a.m. with the New York Fed. At that point, it was time to put the port up and break out the hard stuff. more...

Hong Kong bankers discover fake gold bars shipped from US

Jim Willie
In 1964 the USGovt introduced the zinc dimes clad with silver. They at least admitted the debauchery publicly. Now pre-1964 silver coins are all considered different, and valued differently too, higher. Rome committed the same coinage fraud 1900 years ago. Their Empire went bust as the city burned almost concurrently. Ayn Rand is a guiding light for Alan Greenspan, the enabling destroyer of the US banking system, destroyer of the US household archipelago, and dispatcher of the US industrial base to Asia. He is the hero icon worshipped by Wall Street. The irony is thick, that his career was spent following Old Europe orders that delivered the slow motion coup de grace to the American Empire. Ayn Rand wrote "If you want to know when a society is set to vanish, watch the money. Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men’s protection and the base of moral existence. Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owner a counterfeit pile of papers." The Chinese are learning this lesson the hard way, challenged to convert their USTreasury Bonds and USAgency Mortgage Bonds into true wealth before the paper becomes worthless and untradable. Actually, the bonds will eventually be redeemed by the USFed with newly printed money, when an avalanche occurs of foreigners seeking redemption en masse. For almost ten years they have been exchanging their finished products to the US & West for paper with ink on it, a veritable counterfeit pile of papers. The Chinese are cashing in on their paper, trading it for new global power.

NEW TUNGSTEN MINE DISCOVERY

The tungsten deposits come in very high grade ore, located in shallow rectangular deposits dispersed widely across the world, segregated in unusual vault heap leach mineralizations. Yes, these guys are leeches! In October, the Hong Kong bankers discovered some gold bars shipped from the United States were actually tungsten with gold plating. This is the exact same Modus Operandi as the silver clad zinc dimes from 45 years ago. History repeats itself. The parallels to mortgage bond fraud with either subprime borrowers or multiple property titles used in bond securitization is easy to spot. A consistent theme runs through the American management of finance and dissemination of fraudulent assets on a global basis. Tungsten gold bars is a feat difficult to surpass. Credit must be given for not leaving any potential for fraud untapped. The Goldman Sachs front running of NYSE trades with their Unix box is just icing on the cake. Fortunately for them, the FBI hustled the whistle blower off and painted him as a Russian marauder of criminal type. Actually, the front running flash trade device is more like icing on the cake whose main body is the naked shorting of bank stocks done by Wall Street firms, whose protector in the USDept Treasury ordered a halt in the practice after they had finished shorting and needed help from the market in covering. Thus the Banned Bank Short List. What a complete comedy of corruption the US financial assets have become. So word comes of tungsten permeating the banking system. It appears the syndicate might be opening the floodgates for the bankers of the world to begin an attempt to corner the light bulb market!!

No disrespect is intended for the trillion$ counterfeits of superstar grade. Refer to the missing $2.3 trillion Pentagon appropriations announced on 10 September 2001. Actually that is just theft, at least done by patriots and certain allies. Refer to the JPMorgan recorded sales of $2.2 trillion in USTreasury Bonds over and above the total issuance by the USDept Treasury itself. That is counterfeit, by definition, at least done by the financial envy of the world. Refer to the missing $1.9 trillion in Fannie Mae funds documented by USDept Housing & Urban Devmt between the years of 1988 and 2000. That gutting was a presidential skeet shooting mission, maybe to fund libraries for memorabilia. These are dastardly deeds of distinction. These are legacy crimes.

The initial discovery was something like four gold bars, which the Hong Kong bankers drilled invasively to test the contents. Reminds me of drilling the earth and measuring how many grams of gold per tonne. The HK bankers hoped to have 99% gold yield in their drill program for the resident bars. They found something like 1% instead and 99% tungsten. By the way, tungsten sells for less than $70 per ton, which makes its swaps for gold to be 60x more profitable than silver bar swaps. Another handy usage for the Gold/Silver ratio in calculations. The hunt was on. Now not a single assayer on the planet is available, as all are tied up. They have been commissioned to test the gold bars shipped from the United States of Fraudulent Banker America in their own bullion vaults. They use basic methods of four drill holes with direct assay of shavings, but also less invasive methods like electro-magnetic waves to examine the metal lattice structure. When highest level methods are needed, they turn to mass spectrometry. NOW ALMOST NO GOLD BARS WILL LEAVE THE LONDON OR NEW YORK METALS EXCHANGES WITHOUT SOME AUTHENTICATION, AS DISTRUST IS WIDESPREAD.

The global bankers must deal with toxic bonds and phony gold bars. Yes, New York City is the financial center of world, but for fraud. Talk circulates that a president from yesteryear with his Goldman Sachs Treasury Secretary might have swapped the entire contents of Fort Knox. So did they not only lease the national treasure of gold, but swapped it first, then leased tungsten gold? Time will tell, as evidence is being accumulated and compiled. The assayers have also been commissioned to assist in authentication of gold bar delivery the world over from the US exchanges. Current estimates among the gold trader community run well past a few hundred thousand 'salted' gold bars, maybe over a million. When the Jackass inquired from a reliable gold trader source as to the timespan for the swaps, the late 1990 decade was the reply for dates on almost the entire false batches. Actually it is a mountainous batch. So the introduction to sophisticated Wall Street methods of currency management during the Decade of Prosperity had a side game running that were profitable indeed to the guys running the USDept Treasury and White House. In an age where the lines between patriotism and treason are blurred, this tungsten episode brings new meaning to the word HEIST.

For some excellent forensic financial analysis on the fake gold project, called Operation Grand Slam, see Rob Kirby's article. It is entitled "On Doing God's Work: Gold Finger, A New Take On Operation Grand Slam With A Tungsten Twist" (CLICK HEREdated 12 November 2009.

BREAKDOWN AT GOLD EXCHANGES

A Jackass article was posted entitled "Hitmen Contracts to Bust COMEX" in May (CLICK HERE), not without a little stir, even a removal of the article 24 hours later by one website due to its controversial subject matter. The article gave warning. The bust cometh, and it will be spectacular. Enemies come to address the state corruption with syndicate entrenched. The stories told in the press will be peculiar, since told by the victimized establishment. The headlines might be a comedy, with phony reports of foreign subterfuge, when the perpetrators are American and English, who operate from the new Axis of Fascism. The focal point for attacks is actually London at their metals exchange. The early October events included numerous offers by exchange officials to settle gold contract deliveries in cash with a 25% extra vig bonus. Or was it a bribe? Much gold was drained from London on demanded delivery, thanks to a small army of lawyers, a small blizzard of contracts, and a few key judges at the courts. Gold was taken, thus enforcing futures contracts, which happen to be binding contracts. The pressure at the end of November will be worse to make good on gold contract deliveries. Recall the stories back in April for a Deutsche Bank rescue by the Euro Central Bank with a very large (over one million oz gold position) provision made. DBank was in trouble. The pressures are mounting every couple months. Next March will be a climax of the breakdown, or else June.

Some say naively, or rather ignorantly, that nothing in the news points to any breakdowns or extreme pressures. Each delivery month event includes more gold removed from the London exchange, more gold demanded from it, and more movement toward a breakdown. So the next events have even more pressure, with less gold supply and continued relentless demand. Recall also that the exchange, along with the COMEX in the Untied States, exempt the big banks from maintaining 80% collateral when they short gold & silver with paper contracts. Thus the name suppression, or better yet corruption. They are being caught in their naked shorting game. The December 1st events surrounding settlement delivery demands will be more contentious and stressful than October 1st. In sequential manner, the March event will be even more pressure packed, with precious little physical gold in store and more targeted Chinese delivery demanded. The June event will be even more pressure packed still, a backup date for a potential breakdown if it does not occur in March.

The common denominator for the parties demanding gold delivery in London is simple: they are all Asians, all, as in all, and the great majority are Chinese. To say the Chinese are trying to bust the government gold gamers who defend the USDollar is a gross understatement. They use USTreasury Bond credit supply somewhat as leverage, to silence the opposition and critics. One can safely conclude that the US and British banks will be broken with the nexus being their gold management, which underpins the USDollar. Other pressure is sure to mount. Not the kind of pressure you might imagine. Pressure is mounting for senior bank executives and politicians to start revealing the identities, deeds, locations, and dates of the gold tungsten swap, the mortgage bond firehose, and other pervasive frauds protected by the USGovt and British Govt. It might even include producing the true location of the Madoff funds.

GOLD & SILVER BREAKOUTS


The gold & silver prices are moving in lead fashion, and have done so among the currencies for at least the last three months. The major currencies fiddle and diddle (as Johnny Most used to say during Boston Celtic basketball game broadcasts), but gold & silver continue to rise. The Chinese, according to word from connected sources, intend to push the gold price and the silver price relentless upward without explosive parabolic moves and without painful huge selloff corrections. That way, the army of public investors will not lose heart, and will remain on the path, in full phalanx support of the Chinese Govt initiative. The Euro currency has hit the 150 level in mid-October and in mid-November, only to fall back a little. The Euro is not ready for a powerful move to 160 just yet. Such an advance would bring with it a painful effect to German exporters again, not desired. As a result, the gold price in Europe has made significant moves, and is in the process of challenging the 785 high from February. The key to a massive gold bull market is confirmation in terms of other currencies. The gold breakout is being led globally in US$ terms, since the American Peso is the weakest currency on earth outside Zimbabwe. It is being recognized as a Third World banana republic currency. Even the Costa Rican colone currency has made little gains against the USDollar in the last couple months. Bananas are a chief export of Costa Rica. Pura vida! GOLD IS TAKING ITS RIGHTFUL PLACE AS THE PREMIER GLOBAL CURRENCY, AFTER A BREAKDOWN IN THE MONETARY SYSTEM AND INSOLVENCY IN THE BANKING SYSTEM. More...

Friday, November 20, 2009

Audit the Fed Amendment Passes 43-26!



After several hours of heated debate, the Paul-Grayson “Audit the Fed” amendment passed 43-26 in the House Financial Services Committee earlier today. The amendment calls for a comprehensive audit of the Federal Reserve and replaces the opposing “placebo” amendment proposed by Mel Watt.

The Paul-Grayson initiative is an amendment to Barney Frank’s HR 3996, also known as the “Financial Stability Improvement Act of 2009″. The Committee was going to vote on that bill today, but Barney Frank surprisingly postponed the vote until after the Thanksgiving recess:

(Rep. Barney) Frank told the panel that most of the members pushing him to postpone the vote were members of the Congressional Black Caucus who said that the political environment wasn’t right for a vote this afternoon.

“It’s my understanding,” Frank said, “that the issues being addressed are not internal to this bill.” In other words, the Democrats were not expressing particular problems with the bill itself, but the larger problems in the economy made them reluctant to support a bill that could be portrayed as too friendly to Wall Street.

Ron Paul sent out the following press release shortly after the amendment passed:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Washington, D.C. – Congressman Ron Paul (TX-14) is pleased to announce that his and Congressman Grayson’s amendment based on HR 1207 has passed in the Financial Services Committee by a vote of 43-26 and will be included in major banking reform legislation.

The Paul/Grayson amendment:

  • Removes the blanket restrictions on GAO audits of the Fed
  • Allows audit of every item on the Fed’s balance sheet, all credit facilities, all securities purchase programs, etc.
  • Retains limited audit exemption on unreleased transcripts and minutes
  • Sets 180-day time lag before details of Fed’s market actions may be released
  • States that nothing in the amendment shall be construed as interference in or dictation of monetary policy by Congress or the GAO

“While HR 3996, if passed, will grant sweeping new powers to the Federal Reserve, at least with this amendment attached, it won’t be acting in secret anymore. This is a major victory for Federal Reserve transparency and government accountability,” stated Congressman Paul.

How they voted (HR 1207 co-sponsors in bold):


Democrats


MA-04 Rep. Barney Frank
nay
PA-11 Rep. Paul E. Kanjorski
nay
CA-35 Rep. Maxine Waters
nay
NY-14 Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney
nay
IL-04 Rep. Luis V. Gutierrez
nay
NY-12 Rep. Nydia M. Velázquez
nay
NC-12 Rep. Melvin L. Watt
nay
NY-05 Rep. Gary L. Ackerman
nay
CA-27 Rep. Brad Sherman aye
NY-06 Rep. Gregory W. Meeks
nay
KS-03 Rep. Dennis Moore
nay
MA-08 Rep. Michael E. Capuano
nay
TX-15 Rep. Rubén Hinojosa aye
MO-01 Rep. William Lacy Clay aye
NY-04 Rep. Carolyn McCarthy
nay
CA-43 Rep. Joe Baca

MA-09 Rep. Stephen F. Lynch
nay
CA-42 Rep. Gary G. Miller
nay
GA-13 Rep. David Scott aye
TX-09 Rep. Al Green
nay
MO-05 Rep. Emanuel Cleaver
nay
IL-08 Rep. Melissa L. Bean
nay
WI-04 Rep. Gwen Moore
nay
NH-02 Rep. Paul W. Hodes aye
MN-05 Rep. Keith Ellison
nay
FL-22 Rep. Ron Klein
nay
OH-06 Rep. Charles Wilson
nay
CO-07 Rep. Ed Perlmutter aye
IN-02 Rep. Joe Donnelly
nay
IL-14 Rep. Bill Foster
nay
IN-07 Rep. Andre Carson
nay
CA-12 Rep. Jackie Speier aye
MS-01 Rep. Travis Childers aye
ID-01 Rep. Walt Minnick aye
NJ-03 Rep. John Adler aye
OH-15 Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy
nay
OH-01 Rep. Steve Driehaus aye
FL-24 Rep. Suzanne Kosmas aye
FL-08 Rep. Alan Grayson aye
CT-04 Rep. Jim Himes
nay
MI-09 Rep. Gary Peters aye
NY-25 Rep. Dan Maffei aye




Republicans


AL-06 Rep. Spencer Bachus aye
TX-19 Rep. Randy Neugebauer aye
DE-01 Rep. Michael N. Castle aye
NY-03 Rep. Peter King aye
CA-40 Rep. Edward R. Royce aye
OK-03 Rep. Frank D. Lucas aye
TX-14 Rep. Ron Paul (sponsor) aye
IL-16 Rep. Donald A. Manzullo aye
NC-03 Rep. Walter B. Jones aye
IL-13 Rep. Judy Biggert aye
NC-13 Rep. Brad Miller

WV-02 Rep. Shelley Moore Capito aye
TX-05 Rep. Jeb Hensarling aye
NJ-05 Rep. Scott Garrett aye
SC-03 Rep. J. Gresham Barrett aye
PA-06 Rep. Jim Gerlach aye
GA-06 Rep. Tom Price aye
NC-10 Rep. Patrick T. McHenry aye
CA-48 Rep. John Campbell aye
FL-12 Rep. Adam Putnam aye
MN-06 Rep. Michele Bachmann aye
TX-24 Rep. Kenny Marchant aye
MI-11 Rep. Thaddeus McCotter aye
CA-22 Rep. Kevin McCarthy aye
FL-15 Rep. Bill Posey aye
KS-02 Rep. Lynn Jenkins aye
NY-26 Rep. Christopher Lee aye
MN-03 Rep. Erik Paulsen aye
NJ-07 Rep. Leonard Lance aye

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Gold $5000+



Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff.

French bank warns clients to prepare for global collapse

Société Générale has advised clients to be ready for a possible "global economic collapse" over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
In a report entitled "Worst-case debt scenario", the bank's asset team said state rescue packages over the last year have merely transferred private liabilities onto sagging sovereign shoulders, creating a fresh set of problems.

Overall debt is still far too high in almost all rich economies as a share of GDP (350pc in the US), whether public or private. It must be reduced by the hard slog of "deleveraging", for years.

"As yet, nobody can say with any certainty whether we have in fact escaped the prospect of a global economic collapse," said the 68-page report, headed by asset chief Daniel Fermon. It is an exploration of the dangers, not a forecast.

Under the French bank's "Bear Case" scenario, the dollar would slide further and global equities would retest the March lows. Property prices would tumble again. Oil would fall back to $50 in 2010.

Governments have already shot their fiscal bolts. Even without fresh spending, public debt would explode within two years to 105pc of GDP in the UK, 125pc in the US and the eurozone, and 270pc in Japan. Worldwide state debt would reach $45 trillion, up two-and-a-half times in a decade.

(UK figures look low because debt started from a low base. Mr Ferman said the UK would converge with Europe at 130pc of GDP by 2015 under the bear case).

The underlying debt burden is greater than it was after the Second World War, when nominal levels looked similar. Ageing populations will make it harder to erode debt through growth. "High public debt looks entirely unsustainable in the long run. We have almost reached a point of no return for government debt," it said.

Inflating debt away might be seen by some governments as a lesser of evils.

If so, gold would go "up, and up, and up" as the only safe haven from fiat paper money. Private debt is also crippling. Even if the US savings rate stabilises at 7pc, and all of it is used to pay down debt, it will still take nine years for households to reduce debt/income ratios to the safe levels of the 1980s.

The bank said the current crisis displays "compelling similarities" with Japan during its Lost Decade (or two), with a big difference: Japan was able to stay afloat by exporting into a robust global economy and by letting the yen fall. It is not possible for half the world to pursue this strategy at the same time.

SocGen advises bears to sell the dollar and to "short" cyclical equities such as technology, auto, and travel to avoid being caught in the "inherent deflationary spiral". Emerging markets would not be spared. Paradoxically, they are more leveraged to the US growth than Wall Street itself. Farm commodities would hold up well, led by sugar.

Mr Fermon said junk bonds would lose 31pc of their value in 2010 alone. However, sovereign bonds would "generate turbo-charged returns" mimicking the secular slide in yields seen in Japan as the slump ground on. At one point Japan's 10-year yield dropped to 0.40pc. The Fed would hold down yields by purchasing more bonds. The European Central Bank would do less, for political reasons.

SocGen's case for buying sovereign bonds is controversial. A number of funds doubt whether the Japan scenario will be repeated, not least because Tokyo itself may be on the cusp of a debt compound crisis.

Mr Fermon said his report had electrified clients on both sides of the Atlantic. "Everybody wants to know what the impact will be. A lot of hedge funds and bankers are worried," he said.

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Wednesday, November 18, 2009

British scientists suspect that swine flu virus has mutated in Ukraine



British scientists suspect that swine flu virus has mutated in Ukraine. Some doctors say that flu in the country has shown unprecedented symptoms, creating the effect of burnt lungs, the Daily Mail reports.

Ukraine Dead Increase to 344 - Sequences Released

Recombinomics Commentary 19:17
November 17, 2009

1,502,345 Influenza/ARI

85,904 Hospitalized

344 Dead

The above tally is from the latest update from the Ukraine Ministry of health. The 344 dead represents an increase of 16 from yesterday's total, which is similar to recent daily increases. The steady climb in fatal cases highlights the importance of the release of sequences by Mill Hill a WHO regional center in London.

Included in the sequences from 10 isolates were four HA sequences with the receptor binding domain change, D225G, which was found in the one throat and three lung samples. The change was not found in isolates from nasopharyngeal washes, suggesting D225G may lead to high concentrations of H1N1 in patient's lungs. The high concentration of virus leads to a cytokine storm that destroys the lungs in a few days.

The finding of D225G in lung tissues raises concerns rergarding sequencing of isolates from nasopharyngeal swabs. The monitoring of this important genetic change in the receptor binding domain may require sampling of lung tissues or fluids.

The relationship between the negative nasopharyngeal washes and the lung samples would be useful.

Kudos to Mill Hill and WHO for the prompt release of the panel of H1N1 sequences from Ukraine patients.

RBD D225G in China and Australia Raise Ukraine Concerns
Recombinomics Commentary 14:41
November 18, 2009

The recent outbreak in Ukraine has raised concern that receptor binding domain changes are responsible. Although WHO has issued a new Ukraine situation update and has addressed preliminary changes in a news conference, they have not rule out receptor binding domain changes, and the recent announcement of investigations by two WHO Regional Centers (NIMR in Mill Hill, UK and CDC in Atlanta GA) suggests single nucleotide changes are under investigation.

One such change is the receptor binding domain polymorphism D225G which is present on recently released sequences from China and Australia. The HA sequence from China, A/Zheijiang/DTID-ZJU03/2009, is virtually identical to two earlier sequences from Yiwu (A/Zhejiang/DTID-ZJU02/2009 and
A/Zhejiang-Yiwu/11/2009) and all were collected in September and appear to be from the same patient or contacts. The patient eventually recovered, but was seriously ill and hospitalized for several weeks. However, the three sequences from Yiwu match (see list here) sequences from an isolate, A/Hangzhou/1/2009, that is in another location in Zheijiang (see map), indicating D225G was appended onto the Hangzhou genetic background via recombination.

A sequence released Monday at GISAID by the WHO regional center in Australia, A/Sydney/2503/2009, also has D225G, but on a different genetic backbone. The 5' end of the gene matches isolates from Singapore and Japan (see list), which do not have D225G. Thus, D225G is appended onto this background via recombination, but the background in Australia is distinct from the background in China.

Similarly, the two genetic backbones described above are distinct for two isolates in Sao Paulo, which were from fatal cases. The lung isolates signal the jumping of D225G from one genetic backbone to another. This concurrent acquisition has been described in H5N1, as well as the genetic hitchhiking of H274Y in seasonal H1N1.

This jumping of the same polymorphisms form one background to another signals major changes, especially when the polymorphism "in play" is a receptor binding domain change, which is cause for concern.

The recent activity in Ukraine raises concerns that similar changes are in play there, and the failure of WHO to release the sequences or comment on receptor binding domain changes significantly increases these concerns.

“Ukraine swine flu ‘burns’ lungs”– source

russiatoday.com
British scientists suspect that swine flu virus has mutated in Ukraine. Some doctors say that flu in the country has shown unprecedented symptoms, creating the effect of “burnt” lungs, the Daily Mail reports.

Sources said that while British scientists are running their tests of the virus samples from Ukraine, some doctors claim the strain is dangerously mutating.

Read more

These doctors even liken swine flu symptoms in Ukraine with those of the Spanish flu that hit the world in early 20th Century, the Daily Mail reports.

It has also quoted an unnamed doctor in western Ukraine as saying that lungs of Ukraine swine flu victims look strikingly unusual.

“We have carried out post mortems on two victims and found their lungs are as black as charcoal. They look like they have been burned. It's terrifying,” doctor said.

Meanwhile, according to the World Health Organization, no mutations have been registered in virus samples from Ukraine.

The organization was quoted by AP as saying that preliminary genetic sequencing in British and American laboratories showed the virus from Ukraine is similar to that used for production of the pandemic flu vaccine.

The WHO said that the infection rate in Ukraine is quite in line with that in neighboring countries like Russia and Ukraine.

Meanwhile, versions of an H1N1 virus nature keep multiplying.

“It should be called a Jurassic Flu – the DNA of a woman who died in 1918 Spanish flu was recovered from her corpse,” said investigative reporter Wayne Madsen to RT.

“The DNA was used to recreate this virus and some of the individuals, especially of the University of Wisconsin, Madison, are now involved in a process to develop the vaccine for H1N1. I don’t think it takes a detective very much time to figure out what could be a ‘cause and effect’ relationship there,” he added.

Watch more on swine flu in RT’s CrossTalk program.

Russia is stepping into the campaign to help Ukraine tackle the virus. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has signed an order to provide humanitarian aid to the country.

The Ministry of Health and Social Development allocated about US$800,000 to buy medication for Ukraine which has been delivered to the country by air.

The Ukrainian Health Ministry has registered some 1.5 million flu and respiratory illnesses since the start of the outbreak.

22 countries have sent aid to Ukraine following an appeal by President Yushchenko.

Kyiv Post, Ukraine: 1000 Dead, 2 Million Sick from Flu and ARVI



There are fears that H1N1 has now mutated and resembles the Spanish flu virus that killed more than 50 million people at the beginning of the 20th century. Ukrainian doctors say the victims lungs are as black as charcoal. This prompts fresh concern that the swine flu virus has taken a deadly new form.

The Kyiv Post reports [in broken English]:
Ukrainian authorities hide the true information about swine flu in the country. Number of registered flu and ARVI accidents grew up in 2.5 times – Tymoshenko said. But it is not the real situation. Real number of victims is much higher. Doctors say, that more than 1000 people has already died of flu in Ukraine. Some hours ago the Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko has informed, that the number of registered flu and ARVI cases in Ukraine in Nov. 8-10 has grown up again more than in 2.5 times. Experts suppose about more than 2 million flu diseased.

Audit the Fed Bill: Attempted Saturday Night Massacre Underway

nakedcapitalism.com

So get this, sports fans: the day (or maybe two max) before the so-called Audit the Fed bill (a bipartisan initiative to increase transparency) has a torpedo shot at it by a member of the House Financial Services committee, one Mel Watt of North Carolina. Of course, his amendment professes to increase transparence too, but in fact does nothing of the kind, and in fact would reduce the GAO’s audit powers over the Fed.

I’ll admit I’m a bit of a newbie at these matters, but it strains credulity to think Watt came up with this Trojan horse on his own. I’ll bet the Fed provided the language for this stealth operation.

From the Huffington Post:

Rep. Mel Watt, a Democrat from North Carolina, has introduced an amendment intended as an alternative to the measure to audit the Federal Reserve introduced by Reps. Ron Paul (R-Texas) and Alan Grayson’s (D-Fla.) . But instead of increasing transparency, as the amendment claims to do, Watt’s measure would instead make the institution more opaque….

Watt pitched his amendment in a letter to colleagues circulated Tuesday. “While my amendment will certainly fall short of demands by those intent on destroying the independence (if not the existence) of the Fed, the critics of my amendment will have to concede…that my amendment will provide transparency of the Fed’s financial operations that will be completely unprecedented,” he wrote.

In fact, the critics are conceding no such thing. “The Watt Amendment, as written today, actually places new restrictions on the little authority that exists, such as it is, for independent auditing of the Fed,” Grayson said. “It keeps in place all existing restrictions and adds four more. So I don’t see why anybody would reasonably think that it creates unprecedented authority to audit the Fed.”

The devil, as always, is in the details. While Watt’s amendment talks a big game about opening up the Fed to a complete audit, all of the new powers granted must be carried out “each case in accordance with subsections (b) and (e).”

Those subsections of the current law delineate the many restrictions that an auditor confronts when seeking to audit the Fed. Watt’s measure not only leaves those in place but requires all audits to abide by them.

And in addition to the current restrictions in place, it creates new ones. An auditor could not look at loans or liquidity arrangements the Fed enters into, the terms of those arrangements, or the effect of those loans and other liquidity deals on “reserves, the balance sheet or financial condition of a Federal reserve bank or the Federal Reserve System.”

Yves here. That is tantamount to saying you are permitted to operate a strip club as long as the patrons are prohibited from looking at un or underclad bodies. Back to the article:

The Fed has expanded its balance sheet drastically over the last year, entering into exotic swap arrangements and otherwise pumping trillions of dollars into the economy. How it has done so and who has been on the receiving end would remain secret under Watt’s bill.

By contrast, the Paul-Grayson amendment is patterned after Paul’s bill H.R. 1207, which has broad bipartisan support. It has more than 310 cosponsors in a chamber with 435 members.

Paul’s measure would repeal the provisions that Watt’s leaves in place. If every member who cosponsored Paul’s bill votes for it in committee this week, it would have the votes to pass. Watt’s amendment is an effort to peel off votes…

“The new exemptions are described as limited but they are extremely broad,” Grayson said. They’re so broad, in fact, that there would be very little left for an auditor to look into. What could an auditor check up on?

“Count the pencils on the desks,” Grayson speculated. “Perhaps check on proper Metro card usage.”

You can read the full text of the Watt letter at HuffPo.

If this offends you as much as it does me, I hope you’ll make a call or two tomorrow. Here are the Democratic numbers of Congress who support auditing the Fed. They should support the Paul-Grayson amendment and not the Watt amendment. Thanks!

Rep. John Adler, NJ: (202) 225-4765
Rep. Travis Childers, MS: (202) 225-4306
Rep. Steve Driehaus, OH: (202) 225-2216
Rep. Rubén Hinojosa, TX: (202) 225-2531
Rep. Suzanne Kosmas, FL: (877) 956-7627
Rep. Dan Maffei, NY: (202) 225-3701
Rep. Brad Miller, NC: (202) 225-3032
Rep. Walt Minnick, ID: (202) 225-6611
Rep. Ed Perlmutter, CO: (202) 225-2645
Rep. David Scott, GA: (202) 225-2939
Rep. Brad Sherman, CA: (202) 225-5911
Rep. Jackie Speier, CA: (202) 225-3531

22 banks that got the most in bailouts cut $10.5 billion in business loans

money.cnn.com
Eight months after President Obama began prodding the nation's banks to increase their small business lending, the loan numbers continue to move in the opposite direction.

The 22 banks that got the most help from the Treasury's bailout programs cut their small business loan balances by a collective $10.5 billion over the past six months, according to a government report released Monday.

Three of the 22 banks make no small business loans at all. Of the remaining 19 banks, 15 have reduced their small business loan balance since April, when the Treasury department began requiring the biggest banks receiving Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funding to report monthly on their small business lending.

Over the six months that the reporting requirement has been in effect, the banks have cut their collective small business lending by 4%. Their cumulative balance stood at $258.7 billion as of Sept. 30, according to a Treasury Department report.

The bank with the biggest lending drop was Wells Fargo, which cut its loan balances by $3 billion. However, Wells Fargo also remains by far the biggest small business lender, with $73.8 billion lent out to small companies. No other bank comes close to that tally.

Some banks are unapologetic about their cutbacks. Small business defaults are soaring, and banks are under pressure to shore up their balance sheets and reduce their exposure to risky loans. Two key small business lenders, CIT Group and Advanta, filed for bankruptcy this month.

But other banks downplay their dwindling loan numbers.

JPMorgan Chase made headlines last week by announcing that it would increase its small business lending by $4 billion this year. But there's no sign of an increase so far in the reports the bank has been filing to the Treasury. JPMorgan's small business lending total has declined every month since April, falling 2.5% over the period. As of Sept. 30, the balance stood at $25.4 billion, down $664 million from six months ago.

JPMorgan spokesman Tom Kelly said the bank will ramp up its lending as the economy improves. The bank is already starting to see healthier, better-qualified applicants, he said: "Some of the businesses are better than they were six months ago."

He also pointed to JPMorgan's recent move to hire additional small business specialists. "We are going to have 325 more bankers talking to customers, so that means there is going to be more applicants for loans," Kelly said. "We have 325 more people knocking on doors."

Credit crunch: Obama administration officials, including Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Small Business Administration head Karen Mills, will host a forum Wednesday in Washington to discuss the lending challenges small businesses face. Bankers, members of Congress, and a selection of small business owners will participate.

While credit conditions have improved in some parts of the financial system, lending remains very tight for businesses that rely on banks for their financing, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke acknowledged on Monday.

"Many small businesses have seen their bank credit lines reduced or eliminated, or they have been able to obtain credit only on significantly more restrictive terms," Bernanke said in a speech at the Economic Club of New York. "The fraction of small businesses reporting difficulty in obtaining credit is near a record high, and many of these businesses expect credit conditions to tighten further."

Those in the field back that view. Susan Carlson is president of The International Center for Assistance, a nonprofit organization in Richmond, Va., that assists small businesses seeking capital. Lenders remain very skittish, she said.

"They will look at me and say, 'Susan, we would love to help you, but right now we can't take the risk,'" she said.

Jobs on the line: Frank and Ingrid Brown are a prime example of what happens when entrepreneurs can't get financing. The couple would like to expand their businesses in Auburn, Ala., which currently employ 20 people, but can't land the loan they'd need to do it.

The Browns own two retail art and gift shops, The Villager and AuburnArt.com, as well as a collection of online stores. First they applied at the bank for a loan targeting businesses in underutilized urban areas, but were denied because their sales exceeded the cap for the loan. So they applied with the bank for a Small Business Administration-backed 7(a) loan, but were again rejected.

Next the Browns turned to the America's Recovery Capital (ARC) loan program, a stimulus measure launched this year to get government-backed bridge loans to struggling but viable businesses. After filling out mountains of paperwork, the couple got a bank loan for $14,000 -- less than half the $35,000 they applied for.

"We couldn't get any answers for why we didn't get the full amount, but that is what they came up with. It was kind of like 'take it or leave it,'" Frank said. "By the time you get through everything, it is not even worth it."

The Browns also applied at their local bank, BBVA Compass in Birmingham, for a $50,000 credit line. They were approved for $10,000.

The frustration is taking its toll. "People like us go out and hire people," Frank said. But without the capital it needs to grow, The Villager isn't bringing on new staffers.

That's the nightmare scenario for policymakers as they try to fan the flames of the nation's fragile economic recovery. As long as bank vaults stay slammed shut, fewer startups will launch, successful businesses will have trouble expanding, and struggling businesses are more likely to fail.

"Difficulties in obtaining credit could hinder the expansion of small and medium-sized businesses and prevent the formation of new businesses," Bernanke said on Monday. "Because smaller businesses account for a significant portion of net employment gains during recoveries, limited credit could hinder job growth."

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

10 States with Underemployment Rates of 20+ Percent

mybudget360.com
The average American family must look at the current stock market rally as some kind of cruel joke. We have people anxiously waiting for government funds or paychecks to clear at the end of the month so they can wait outside of a Wal-Mart shopping center at midnight to buy food once their funds clear. We have nearly 36 million Americans on food stamps and another 27 million unemployed or underemployed. If this is the new recovery, many want very little to do with it.

It is hard to believe in this recovery because the bailout has gone to the financial sector and is reflected in hyper-inflated equity prices. As obvious as it seems, some people don’t make the connection that an unemployed American is a weaker consumer. Consumption as we all know is two-thirds of our economy. Therefore you would assume that investors would make this connection but that is not the case. The banks being the few with any sort of heavy government money, instead of lending to Americans, are once again gambling in the stock market casino. What a sad testimony to our crony capitalistic system that banks instead of believing in the average American, are deciding to double down on Wall Street and trying to recoup their 2008 losses. This on the pretense that banks needed money to get lending going again.

One thing that is clear is the employment situation is in a major funk. 10 states now have underemployment rates of over 20 percent. We are talking about Great Depression statistics here:

top-10-state-unemployment

The above data is pulled from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics and is an average from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the end of the third quarter in 2009. In other words, the data above is optimistic and doesn’t use the latest data that is even higher. For example, California recently reported their U-6 rate is now up to 22 percent. Michigan? Their U-6 is now closer to 25 percent. There is nothing remotely close to a recovery in the data above. More...

Plague-Infested Mice Missing From New Jersey Research Lab

February 7, 2009 12:05 p.m. EST

David Goodhue - AHN Reporter

Miami, FL (AHN) - The frozen remains of two mice infected with the bubonic plague are missing from a New Jersey bioterror research facility, and the facility waited seven weeks to report the incident to federal and state authorities.

Officials with the University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey in Newark, where the remains went missing, and FBI officials, said the missing mice pose no public health threat.

This is the same facility where three live plague-inflected mice went missing in September 2005. Officials concluded those mice died.

The frozen mice were noticed missing when an animal care supervisor went to prepare them for sterilization and incineration, the New Jersey Star-Ledger reported. University officials still think the remains were incinerated earlier, but lack the records to prove it.

University officials say they contacted the FBI, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and state health officials when they realized the dead mice were unaccounted for.

See: Deadly flu continues to spread across Ukraine, criminal World Health Organization lies to the public

Pneumonic plague, United States Patent 7572449


http://fto.co.za/news
Whether this has anything to do with whats going on in the Ukraine I am not sure but in August there was a patent filed for antibodies against Yersinia Pestis otherwise known as the pneumonic plague.

It was filed by Hill, James (Salisbury, GB) ,Williamson, Ethel Diane (Salisbury, GB) and Titball, Richard William (Salisbury, GE) and the assignee was The Secretary of State for Defense in Her Britannic Majesty's Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (GB).

A interesting part of the patent is this part:

"Mab 7.3 was administered −4 hours, +24 hours, +48 hours, or +96 hours relative to s.c. Y. pestis challenge. Protection was observed when antibody was given up to 48 hours post-infection. Also, a delayed time to death was observed in the +96 hours treatment group. One of +96 hours treatment group had died prior to antibody administration and the remainder displayed signs of plague indistinguishable from untreated control animals, suggesting that even when symptoms of plague are apparent antibody therapy can delay death. Mice were treated with Mab 7.3 at −4 hours, +24 hours, +48 hours or +60 hours relative to aerosol infection. Protection was seen in groups that received antibody 24 hours and 48 hours after challenge. All mice treated at +60 hours died, but a statistically significant delay in the TTD was observed, compared with untreated animals."

What is more interesting is why was this patent filed in August this year. Maybe its just coincidence but we felt like putting out there so people can decide for themselves.

Deadly flu continues to spread across Ukraine, criminal World Health Organization lies to the public


Submitted by Project Mayhem
Deadly flu spreads across Ukraine

Deadly flu continues to spread across Ukraine, criminal World Health Organization lies to the public, MSM maintains radio silence.

There are many aspects to this story. It is impossible to know where to begin -- let alone cover all the pertinent facts in just one article. Those who have followed my Zerohedge columns in the past may be aware the subject of pandemic influenza has been a regular feature, precisely because there have been multiple signs indicating a global pandemic would be exploited (and perhaps even initiated) by governments and international banks for political purposes.

The signs have been building, including as I previously reported, forced quarantine orders inadvertently published by the CDC. What do these people know which the public does not?

SUMMARY

Over the past two weeks, what appears to be a particularly virulent form of the flu has been spreading in Ukraine and adjacent Eastern European countries. This new flu is, in my opinion, a lethal new strain which has mutated (or was released). I speak with a background in virology. This new mutated flu virus appears to have a remarkable affinity for the lungs and is causing deaths to a much higher extent than the previous swine flu. Something in the virus has changed. I have covered this incredibly important story for two weeks now in my weekly column This Week In Mayhem, which is generally published on Monday mornings.


Regardless, there has been almost zero (NOTHING. NADA. SILENCE.) mention of the Ukraine epidemic in the mainstream media, a fact which I find both astonishing and profoundly disturbing. There is apparently collusion at the highest levels of government and media to suppress this information. There are now 1.3 million infected in Ukraine, and over 75,000 hospitalized -- IN FOURTEEN DAYS. This is very serious! Based on previous clinical data we can expect over 8,000 to be dead or soon to be dead. Forward projection of the epidemic is difficult because the clinical attack rate is unknown -- but myself and my associates remain concerned it may be quite high. Deaths globally may be in the millions. Let's hope this is not the case.

The new flu strain, which I contend is spreading in Ukraine and Belarus, is characterized by a lightning form of viral pneumonia -- very similar to what happened in 1918. The new flu virus appears to have profound tissue affinity for sialic acid receptors deep in the lungs, replicating in the alveoli. To put it mildly, the lungs fill with blood. Quotes from Ukrainian officials included quotes such as "total destruction of the lungs." Ukrainian Doctor Viktor Bachinsky has stated, "The virus causing the deaths is extremely aggressive -- it doesn't first infect the throat (as is common in flu), but strikes the lungs directly." In Ukraine's western Chernovetsky region, an epicenter of the outbreak, doctors have said lab tests showed at least some of the fatalties appeared to be caused by a flu dissimilar to both common flu and swine flu. In other words, a mutant flu. This claim of a 'mutant flu' has been echoed by Ukrainian public health officials such as Dr. Vasyl Lazoryshynetz. Unfortunately, as noted in the above Russia Today video, pharmacies across the country are sold out of antivirals. To the hard of thinking -- yes, this is currently happening in Ukraine.

I have multiple sources confirming spot outbreaks of viral pneumonia in Eastern Europe, including official and non-official entities. In terms of the current situation, there appear to be a high number of pneumonia patients in Ukrainian and Belerusian hospitals. This epidemic has not shut down Ukrainian society yet, but it has caused many people to become concerned, and to buy up essential medicines. Reports from doctors in Belarus indicate they do not expect this deadly new flu epidemic to peak until Christmas or later. This is why it is important to analyze the situation and viral genetics now, and if necessary, contain the spread of the virus while it is still possible -- something the criminals at WHO do not appear interested in doing. These idiots at WHO have yet to release the viral gene sequences (even though they have had them for two weeks), and are now outright lying in their press releases, which I detail later. In terms of how dangerous this new flu strain could potentially be, I conducted a rough analysis of the Ukrainian government statistics, yielding a projected case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.61% -- over six times as lethal as seasonal flu.

Lastly, there are signs the virus is genetic engineered.

DATA FROM THE UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT

The Ukrainian government has been releasing daily data updates on the numbers of "acute respiratory infections" , the number of related hospitalizations , and the number of deaths since Oct 28, 2009. These reported numbers have increased substantially over the past two weeks, from near zero before Halloween to over a million as of today. It is important to remember that these statistics are not laboratory confirmed H1N1 cases (due to the state of the Ukrainian medical system), but we can cautiously assume at this point the vast majority of ARI (acute respiratory infection) in Ukraine with rapid progression to viral pneumonia are caused by influenza A virus. This is because a large subset of these samples are coming up positive of Influenza A, and a smaller subset tested by rt-rtPCR are coming up positive for influenza A/H1N1, or what is more commonly known as 'swine flu'. This suggests we are dealing with a viral epidemic of influenza.

This is not 'swine flu' as previously known. Statistically, the only way for this to be 'swine flu' is if it has mutated (or if the data is wrong). . . We will get to that in a minute.

As I mentioned , this data comes directly from the Ukrainian government. In the past two weeks, ARI have gone from near zero before Halloween to affecting 1.3 million Ukrainians. Over a million people are currently sick with probable H1N1. More importantly, there are over 75,000 total hospitalized at the time of the writing of this article, Monday 11/16. Based on these two figures (75,000 / 1.3 million), approximately 5.6% of those infected with this new ARI end up at the hospital. This is the critical statistic which allows us to estimate how f*cked we actually might be.

Officially, there are 299 deaths, but a realistic estimate shows this is easily one order of magnitude too low. Realistically deaths are between 2,000 - 8,000 people from this probable new strain of the flu -- so far. The number of dead is sure to rise dramatically, as we are only two weeks into this new epidemic. Which brings us to our estimation of the case fatality rate (CFR). Again, I would love to be wrong about this. Let's hope I am.

ZH ESTIMATION OF THE CASE FATALITY RATE

The current American strain 'swine flu' has a case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.1% or less. Seasonal flu has a CFR of 0.1%. The 1957 pandemic had a case fatality rate of 0.5%. The deadly 1918 pandemic had a CFR of 2 - 5%. Based on the Ukrainian government statistics, the new mutated Ukrainian flu has a CFR of 0.61% or higher -- that is, 6.1x as lethal as seasonal flu , perhaps more. Perhaps less if our assumptions are wrong.

We arrive at the 0.61% CFR statistic based on the number of hospitalizations in Ukraine vs. the number of infections. This estimate is only as good as the underlying data, but I have confidence it is in the ball-park (order of magnitude). I consider the official reported number of deaths (299) to be unreliable for political reasons. No one wants to be the country with the lethal flu. Doctors, especially those in Belarus (which is a dictatorship) feel strong administrative pressure to label influenza viral pneumonia deaths as something else, for example cardiac failure. Thus , ARI hospitalizations are the more reliable indicator for what is happening on the ground. Deaths can be implied from hospitalization statistics, assuming we are dealing with a form of H1N1 influenza.

Last week, the medical journal the Lancet published a meta-analysis of the (old) swine flu confirming a JAMA report that approximately 11% of hospitalized patients who had contracted the (old) swine flu died. We will use this 11% figure as our "middle case". The official government reported deaths (299) are considered “best case”. For a "worst case" estimate, we can assume that 25% of hospitalized flu patients will eventually die. We can use these 11% and 25% statistics to estimate the case fatality rate of the Ukrainian flu. The method is as follows:

To calculate the "middle case" and infer fatalities, we take 0.11 (11%, the figure from the JAMA) and multiply it by the number of Ukrainian hospitalizations on a particular date, to yield the expected number of ultimate fatalities. This method assumes the vast majority of reported ARI are from H1N1 swine flu. Using the November 15th data, this gives us 8345 expected fatalities. We take the number of expected fatalities and divide this into the total number who are estimated to be infected on the same particular data point (Nov 15). So 8345 deaths / 1.36 million infections , which yields the case fatality rate, which in this case is 0.61%. Obviously this is a rough estimate, but it is probably within an order of magnitude of the real CFR.

Assumptions for this model:
1) The vast majority of reported Ukrainian ARI are some form of H1N1 flu.
2) The data from the Ukrainian government for infections and hospitalizations is reliable and is not 'massaged' for political purposes.

Implications of this model:
1) If A1 and A2 are true, then statistically speaking we must be dealing with mutated H1N1 influenza (mutated 'swine flu').

In any case, this estimated CFR for Ukrainian flu is over six times higher than seasonal flu. Not good. Let's hope this is wrong. Our "worst case" 25% estimate gives a CFR of 1.39%, enough to eventually shut down commerce and society across the planet -- but fortunately it is likely this "worst case" estimate is far off the mark. For our estimates here, including the CFR estimate of 0.61% using the data from the JAMA -- supposing this estimate was purely based on Ukrainian government statistics, we could consider such an arbitrarily high Case Fatality Rate unreliable , and the product of bad data. However, in the context of multiple reports from individuals as well as state health authorities of MANY cases of viral pneumonia and thousands of patients in intensive care in Belarus and Ukraine, we consider this CFR estimate to make much more sense. That is, it fits the data on the ground of a worsening flu pandemic with a tendency towards viral pneumonia.

The old swine flu did not cause viral pneumonia, generally speaking. The new apparently mutated swine flu does, to an extent orders of magnitude higher. Thus , there must have been changes to the receptor binding domain , among other genes (perhaps PA, PB2, and NS1).

CRIMINAL BEHAVIOUR OF THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION

I am not fond of the World Health Organization. In my opinion, it is a tool of corrupt billionaire international financiers with which to achieve their dark global geopolitical objectives in the area of public health. These objectives are rarely in the public interest. We could spend paragraphs discussing deep corruption at WHO. One important point to remember is their obvious complicity and criminal cover-up regarding MMR vaccine contamination with Avian Leukosis Virus (ALV) , which may induce cancer.

The point here regarding WHO and the potential outbreak Ukraine is several:


-WHO has yet to release the gene sequences of the Ukrainian flu, despite possessing them for almost two weeks. They have also had a “team” on the ground in Lviv for a similar period of time. Where are the flipping gene sequences? The WHO has claimed there are no “big” mutations in the flu strain (apparently ruling out a viral reassortant), but has so far refused to release the Ukrainian flu gene sequences to the Internet community for analysis. This is reprehensible. What are these people doing? The world could know very quickly what we were dealing with if this genetic data was published, but instead it's being kept secret for whatever ulterior motives the WHO is operating under.


-WHO issued a press release on Friday which contained the following astonishing quote, bordering on deception.


“Because of a sharp rise in pandemic influenza cases one week ago in Ukraine, the Ministry of Health requested assistance from WHO European Regional Office to evaluate and respond. The initial analysis of information indicates that the numbers of severe cases do not appear to be excessive when compared to the experience of other countries and do not represent any change in the transmission or virulence of the virus.”


Okay, let's see: Ukraine asked WHO to respond. WHO sent a team to Lviv. So far so good, despite the missing gene sequences. Now wait, what? The WHO publishes their all-star analysis... “The number of severe cases do not appear to be excessive”? Are you kidding me? Please explain how 75,000 hospitalizations in two weeks is not 'excessive'? And how all the pharmacies sold out of antivirals? And how Ukraine is under de-facto martial law? And that Yushenko gave a prime-time speech more or less threatening political dissidents if they don't follow government orders? Or that school in Ukraine is canceled for three weeks? Half the country under quarantine? Hospitals seeing a surge of viral pneumonia patients? What gives? Are these people at WHO retarded or are they criminals?

Oh and of course the gem of this press release by WHO: That “[ the numbers of severe cases ] do not represent any change in the transmission or virulence of the virus.” Hahahaa! You are going to tell me that Ukraine went from two cases to 1.3 million cases in 14 days , and that doesn't represent any change in transmission? Is this supposed to be a joke? These pharmaceutical crooks damn well better explain themselves if you are going to make claims so obviously contrary to reality. Does the WHO contend the Ukrainian government just pulling these figures out of the air? What of the case reports of rapidly deteriorating viral pneumonia in Belarus, Ukraine, and Romania? What is causing this? What about the statements from Ukrainian health officials that we have a new flu strain? On what data are WHO basing these preposterous claims, which fly in the face of reality and common sense? Why not release the Ukrainian gene sequences? There is an obvious spike in mortality and pneumonia – why? Does WHO contend this is another pathogen besides influenza? If so, what? Honestly, this statement issued Friday November 13th from WHO is so obviously full of lies I really don't even have to comment; anyone with a brain can see they are not telling us the truth.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_11_13/en/index.html

-WHO dodges questions from Bloomberg and Sun Media regarding a mutation in Ukrainian flu during last weeks press conference.

Phil Serafino, Bloomberg: Dr Shindo........I have a second question also which may not be your area of expertise but have you heard anything about the mutation of the virus or has it changed at all - are we looking at anything different than a few months ago?

Dr Shindo /WHO: Well, I can answer that question first. The virus is quite stable. It hasn't changed........

Joseph: This is Joseph from Kuala Lumpur - I am from the Sun Media......I just want to ask whether or not any slight mutation even a drift variant has been noticed so far?

Dr Shindo / WHO: Amazingly this virus is very stable and part of the reason, virologists (are saying) is because of the lack of pre-existing immunity in population so that virus doesn't have to mutate to escape from people's immunity. So it's quite stable.


What a joke! You'd think these fools at WHO were politicians , rather than doctors! Twice, the WHO official dodges questions from reporters (Bloomberg nonetheless!) on whether we are dealing with a critical new mutation in Ukraine sequences responsible for higher lethality and infectivity. Unbelievable. Again, I suggest these actions by WHO, taken in concert, are more akin to the actions of a criminal syndicate than to a global public health service. Lies and evasion. Stonewalling. Is this how we expect public servants to behave, especially on time-crucial issues upon which millions of lives depend? Unfortunately this is par for the course. Perhaps we should re-evaluate our conception of the world in which we live. hint: it is so incredibly corrupt, it defies man's imagination.

-Someone personally contacted WHO asking point-blanc , “Is there a critical mutation in this flu in Eastern Europe” and was met with silence.

The above speaks for itself. I was made aware of this contact through a phone conversation with a journalist from globalresearch.ca. More...

Mauritius Island Buys 2 Metric Tons Of Gold From IMF At $1,115 An Ounce

ZeroHedge
The latest development in the gold bubble saga, and one which will likely cause the precious metal's price to spike even higher, comes from the tiny island of Mauritius which according to Dow Jones has purchased 2 metric tons of Gold from the IMF for $71.7 million. The price works out to approximately $1,115 per ounce. More as we get it. (and yes, this is a picture of Mauritius not some CNBC anchor hangout).

Some more from Dow Jones:


The International Monetary Fund announced Monday it has sold two tons of gold to the central bank of the Indian Ocean island of Mauritius for nearly $72 million.

The sale came as gold prices surged Monday to an all-time high of $1,136.72 per ounce.

The sale to Mauritius "was conducted on the basis of market prices prevailing on November 11, 2009 with proceeds equivalent to U.S. 71.7 million dollars," the IMF said in a statement.

It was the second such sale by the fund since September, when its executive board authorized the sale of 403.3 tons of gold from its holdings to bolster its finances amid the global economic crisis.

On Nov. 2 it sold 200 tons of gold to the central bank of India for $6.7 billion.

The IMF said it would sell gold directly to central banks and other official holders for an initial period before selling the remaining amount on the open markets "in a phased manner over time."

The Washington-based IMF, which currently holds just over 3,000 tons of gold, is the third-largest official holder of the precious metal after the U.S. and Germany.

One in seven Americans short of food

Reuters
More than 49 million Americans -- one in seven -- struggled to get enough to eat in 2008, the highest total in 14 years of a federal survey on "food insecurity," the U.S. government said Monday.

While Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said programs such as food stamps softened the impact of an economic recession, anti-hunger groups pointed to the huge increase from the preceding year when 36.2 million people had trouble getting enough food and a third of them occasionally went hungry.

About 14.6 percent of U.S. households, equal to 49.1 million people, "had difficulty obtaining food for all their members due to a lack of resources" during 2008, up 3.5 percentage points from 2007 when 11.1 percent of households were classified as food insecure.

About 5.7 percent of households, or 17.3 million people, had "very low food security," meaning some members of the household had to eat less. Typically, food runs short in those households for a few days in seven or eight months of the year, USDA said.

USDA's annual report was based on a survey conducted in December 2008, soon after financial markets slumped and when the jobless rate was marching toward its current 10.2 percent.

"The numbers are even worse than people otherwise believed," said Jim Weill of the Food Research and Action Center, an anti-hunger group. "We all know we have the worst downturn since the Depression." more...

Monday, November 16, 2009

Stocks Overvalued, Recession Will Return: Meredith Whitney

Stocks are overvalued and the US economy is likely to fall back into a recession next year, well-known analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC.

"I haven't been this bearish in a year," she said in a live interview. "I look at the board and every single stock from Tiffany (TIF) to Bank of America (BAC) to Caterpillar (CAT) is up. But there is no fundamental rooting as to why these names are up—particularly in the consumer space."

In a wide-ranging interview, Whitney, CEO of the Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, also said:
  • She was disappointed that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke didn't spell out how the Federal Reserve planned to exit "the biggest Fed program to date, which is the mortgage-backed purchase program." In a speech earlier Thursday, Bernanke said the central bank was watching the dollar's decline but is likely to keep interest rates low.
  • The US consumer was going through the biggest credit contraction ever—even bigger than that during the Great Depression. "That credit contraction is accelerating," she said. "There's nowhere to hide at this point."
  • The banking sector is not adequately capitalized and will need to raise more capital in the coming year.

  • The residential real estate market is likely to worsen and remains a much bigger threat than the commercial property market. The government's mortgage modification program won't result in any major improvement in homeowners' ability to stay above water, she added.

"I don't know what's going on in the market right now because it makes no sense to me," she said.

"The scariest thing about the Fed's program is that the money on the sidelines isn't going to support that asset class," she added. "So the trillion dollars of Fannie (Mae), Freddie (Mac) and mortgage-backed securities that the Fed is holding—there's no substitute buyer there."

1.25 Million Contract Mystery Flu In Ukraine As Flu Cases Spike In Russia, Belarus, Bulgaria, Serbia, Norway, India And Canada

None - This image is in the public domain and ...Image via Wikipedia

thebirdflupandemic.com
The latest numbers out of Ukraine indicate that 1.25 million people have now contracted what is being called "the mystery flu". Over 65,000 of those have required hospitalization and 239 are officially reported to be dead. As the situation in Ukraine continues to become more dire, many health experts continue to be absolutely perplexed as to why the WHO continues to refuse to release the sequences from the samples taken from patients in Ukraine well over a week ago. Meanwhile, there has been a dramatic spike in flu cases in neighboring countries such as Russia, Belarus and Bulgaria. In addition, a dramatic increase in flu cases is being reported in Serbia, Norway, India and Canada. In many of these nations there are reports of the flu virus absolutely disintegrating the lungs of patients just like it is doing in Ukraine.

Ukrainian Professor Viktor Bachinsky recently commented on the behavior of this mystery flu, and his assessment of this virus is very sobering.....

"The virus, which causes death, is very aggressive, it does not strike the trachea, but immediately gets into the lungs and causes heavy swelling and solid hemorrhage. Mixed types of parainfluenza and influenza A/N1N1 lead to this state. This is a very toxic strain, which has not yet answered to the treatment of the Ministry of Health."

So what in the world is going on there?

Hopefully world health authorities will have some answers for us soon.

Meanwhile flu cases across the globe continue to spike.....

*Thirty-five patients with "swine flu-like symptoms" have died in the last 45 days at just one hospital in India, and not one of them tested positive for the H1N1 swine flu.

*It is being reported that almost 17 percent of the population of Norway has contracted the flu.

*A sudden spike in H1N1 deaths over the past week in Canada is raising concerns that the pandemic virus is taking a far greater toll on Canadians during the "second wave" of this crisis.

*Russian Chief Public Health Official Gennady Onishchenko recently announced that most Russian regions are on the verge of a major flu epidemic.

*It is being reported that there are nearly a quarter of a million people seriously ill with the flu in Belarus, and indications are that patients there are dying the same kind of deaths that we are seeing in Ukraine.

*Serbia's health ministry has proclaimed an H1N1 swine flu epidemic in that nation, as flu panic causes a surge of garlic sales at Belgrade's produce markets.

*A national swine flu epidemic has been declared by the Health Ministry in Bulgaria. Symptoms there include temperatures over 40C, severe pains in the bones and muscles, coughing, and the quick development of pneumonia.

But all of this has barely made a peep in the U.S. media. Is the U.S. media so incredibly self-centered that they consider these outbreaks unimportant, or has someone made a decision to keep these developments quiet for now?

In any event, a lot of people are getting sick and a lot of people are starting to die. Whatever this mystery flu is, it is quickly filling up the lungs of its victims before ultimately shredding them. People are dying absolutely horrifying deaths from this "hemorrhagic flu".

If you have any intel about the situation in Ukraine or anywhere else please feel free to post a comment below. Since the U.S. media is being so silent about all of this, it is absolutely vital that we all work together to get this information out.