If Dubai is the sovereign debt equivalent of Northern Rock, then Greece might be its Bear Stearns and Japan its Lehman Brothers

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Jeremy Warner
telegraph.co.uk
As one financial crisis recedes, another may be beginning. In Dubai this week, we've had a foretaste of what may be to come as governments around the globe seek to grapple with the explosive growth of fiscal deficits and public debt.

Like everyone else, my regard for the miracle of Dubai's fast-evolving skyline has always been tempered with a high degree of scepticism. As a monument to the vanity and hubris of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, Dubai has long looked like an accident waiting to happen. Such has been the pace of development that nobody could have been surprised by the debt default now threatened. Only the assumed support of Dubai's richer neighbour Abu Dhabi, which is now far from certain, has prevented it happening sooner.

Yet the important question for markets today is not whether Dubai and Sheikh Mohammed can survive the sandstorm; in fact, that is almost irrelevant. Dubai's debts of $80 billion (£48 billion) are a tiresome and unwelcome irritant which will cause further write-downs among western banks, but in the scale of things not of great significance: Britain is planning to raise more than three times that amount in the debt markets in this financial year alone.

Rather, the issue is whether this folie de grandeur of a desert kingdom is just an isolated, and therefore containable, incident, or a more worrying outrider for a wider sovereign debt crisis which might eventually engulf major, advanced economies. Everyone thought the financial implosion of the last two years was largely behind us – yet Dubai has reminded us that if nations start defaulting, then it may be about to enter a new and even more frightening phase.

Think of Dubai not so much as the hors d'oeuvre as the pre-dinner canapé, with the starter reserved for larger economies with distressed fiscal positions, such as Greece and Ireland, moving for the main course on to Japan and possibly even Britain and the US.

Already, there are rumblings. The cost of insuring sovereign debt against default has risen across the board, and for countries thought particularly at risk, bond yields are on a firm upward march.

Across the developed world, public debt is set on an explosive course. According to new estimates by Moody's, the credit ratings agency, the total stock of sovereign debt worldwide will have risen by more than 50 per cent between the start of the financial crisis in 2007 and the end of next year, to $15.3 trillion.

But this is just the beginning. On current projections, that total is set to rise by at least a further 50 per cent, before finally peaking in four to five years' time, and then only if governments have by then taken remedial action.

These are uncharted waters, quite without precedent in peacetime. In seeking to address the financial and economic crisis of the past few years, countries have come close to bankrupting themselves. It is as if, in treating the patient, a physician has infected himself with the same deadly disease.

Perhaps oddly, financing these fast-growing deficits has not so far been a problem, at least for the major advanced economies. Risk-averse investors have spurred high demand for sovereign debt, in the possibly misguided belief that there can be no haven safer than assets guaranteed by taxpayers and the ability of their governments to print money.

More perversely still, the crisis in Dubai has caused a renewed flight to the perceived security of G7 government debt. Money is being withdrawn from the periphery and reinvested in US Treasuries, German bunds, and even British gilts.

But if the banking crisis is anything to go by, that's not where the story ends. There, too, the implosion began with smaller, obviously flawed bit-players, who had self-evidently grown too rapidly and overstretched themselves.

Markets dashed to withdraw funding from Northern Rock, but in transferring the money to the likes of the Royal Bank of Scotland found that they had invested only in something even more unstable. The Rock, it turned out, was just an outlier in a systemically unsafe sector.

If Dubai is the sovereign debt equivalent of Northern Rock, then Greece might be its Bear Stearns and Japan its Lehman Brothers. But why stop there? For Citigroup, think the US, and for RBS and HBOS, think Britain. Only there would be no one to bail out their creditors if America or Britain showed signs of defaulting.

Fourth Generation war on American soil

Image via Wikipedia

William S. Lind
One of the ongoing themes of this column has been gangs and the role they play in a Fourth Generation world. Here in the United States they already serve as an alternative primary loyalty (alternative to the state) for many urban young men. Gangs will likely be a major player in 4GW because gang members are expected to fight. Those who won’t do not remain gang members.

The November 15 Washington Post had a story about gangs in Salinas, California, that deserves close attention from 4GW theorists. Salinas is reportedly overrun with Hispanic gangs. The Post wrote that its homicide rate is three times that of Los Angeles. It quoted a Salinas police officer, Sgt. Mark Lazzarini, on one of the classic results of state breakdown, chaos:

“Only half of our gangs are structured; the Norteños,” he said. “The southerners are completely unstructured. Half of our violence is kids who get into a car and go out and hunt. These kids don’t know their victims. How do you stop that? It’s very chaotic.”

Salinas’s new slogan might be, “Salinas: where even the lettuce has tattoos.”

But what is interesting in the Post’s article is not the gangs themselves. It is a new response to the gangs. Salinas has brought in the U.S. military to apply counter-insurgency doctrine to a situation on American soil. The Post reports that:

Since February combat veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan have been advising Salinas police on counterinsurgency doctrine, bringing lessons from the battlefield to the meanest streets in an American city…

“It’s a little laboratory,” said retired Col. Hy Rothstein, the former Army career officer in Special Forces who heads the team of 15 faculty members and students (from the Naval Postgraduate School), mostly naval officers…

Rothstein…notes the “significant overlap with how you deal with insurgencies and how you deal with cities that are under siege from gangs.”…

Leonard A. Ferrari, provost of the naval Postgraduate School, embraced the project from the start, hearing…an opportunity for a school “in transition from just a defense institution to a national homeland and even a human security institution.”…

“The idea was, not just Salinas,” Ferrari said, “but is there a national model for this”

From the perspective of 4GW theory, this is an important development. The Naval Postgraduate School is a DOD institution, part of the U.S. government. Its involvement in Salinas marks the federal government’s formal recognition of Fourth Generation war on American soil, and the need for a “national model” to counteract it. If we must involve the U.S. military to lead counterinsurgency efforts in American cities, then it is difficult to deny that we face something like insurgencies in those same cities. Again, the significance is that this is now formally admitted by the U.S. government, not merely noted by “outside the beltway” observers of 4GW.

The U.S. military officers advising Salinas on how to wage an anti-gang counterinsurgency are doing so as volunteers, according to the Post, to avoid Constitutional issues. But the camel’s nose is obviously inside the tent. Many wars have begun by sending “volunteers.” If, as likely, the volunteers prove insufficient, regular troops will follow.

As someone who believes in a strictly limited federal government, the government envisioned by our Founders, I find this troubling. But from a 4GW perspective, I also know it is inevitable. As I have said time and again, the main Fourth Generation threat we will face will be on our own soil, not halfway around the world, where we are currently pouring our strength out into the sand. We will come to regret that waste bitterly.

Objectively, what the Washington Post has reported is a milestone, to be neither praised nor regretted but merely noted. It denotes another step toward 4GW here at home. It is a step we cannot avoid. As both imported and domestically-generated Fourth Generation entities ramp up their warfare on American soil, the U.S. military will be drawn in. As is the case in 4GW overseas, it will probably fail. Old Uncle Karl was right: the state will wither away. But what follows will not be communism. It will be chaos.

Note: Regrettably, the d-n-i website, which had become the worldwide “go to” forum on 4GW, is shutting down. It is a major loss. Fortunately, John Robb has agreed to carry all my columns on his website, Global Guerrillas. All my archived columns will also be moved there from d-n-i, as will the important K.u.K Austro-Hungarian field manuals on Fourth Generation war.

Somali pirates are front men for syndicates in Dubai

Pirates: the $80m Gulf connection
Tuesday, 21 April 2009
Crime syndicates laundering vast sums taken in ransom from ships and their crews hijacked in Horn of Africa

Kim Sengupta, Daniel Howden
Organised piracy syndicates operating in Dubai and other Gulf states are laundering vast sums of money taken in ransom from vessels hijacked off the Horn of Africa.

Investigators hired by the shipping industry have told The Independent that around $80m (£56m) has been paid out in the past year alone – far more than has previously been admitted. But while some of this money has ended up in the pirate havens of Somalia, millions have been laundered through bank accounts in the United Arab Emirates and other parts of the Middle East.

The so-called "godfathers" of the illicit operations, according to investigators, include businessmen from Somalia and the Middle East, as well as other nationalities on the Indian sub-continent. There have also been reports that some of the money from piracy ransoms has gone to Islamist militants.

The security company Idarat Maritime, which specialises in maritime protection, is working with leading Lloyd's underwriters to formulate safeguards for shippers. Christopher Ledger, a former Royal Marine officer and a director of the firm, said: "There is evidence that syndicates based in the Gulf – some in Dubai – play a significant role in the piracy which is taking place off the African coast. There are huge amounts of money involved and this gives the syndicates access to increasingly sophisticated means of moving money as well as access to modern technology in carrying out the hijackings. This is an international problem and the shipping companies need to ensure that their crews learn how to deal with it."

Investigators have discovered that the pirate gangs are exploiting information available to the shipping industry to plan their attacks. Front organisations are believed to have signed up to the Lloyd's List ship movement database, and sources such as Jane's Intelligence, to ascertain protective measures being undertaken by the shippers. In addition they have bought equipment to monitor radio traffic.

A few well-funded pirate syndicates have experimented with a "stealth" paint such as AR 1, invented by a German scientist living in the UAE, which is credited with making boats difficult to spot via the long-range radar of cargo liners.

It is not clear whether the use of the paint has been effective in helping hijackings, but its use, say the security companies, shows that the pirates are seeking out advanced technology and have the means to acquire it.

Andrew Mwangura, a piracy expert in the Kenyan port of Mombasa, says the gun-wielding Somalis who are fighting and dying in the hijackings are the just the front men of larger syndicates. "They are just the small fish. The big sharks operate out of places like Dubai, Nairobi and Mombasa," he said.

Mr Mwangura, who has observed the rise of piracy while running the East African Seafarers Assistance Programme, says that what began as a localised response to illegal fishing and dumping of toxic waste in Somali waters has evolved into organised crime.

A former merchant seaman, he has been involved in attempts to negotiate the release of hostages and is sought out by diplomats, shipowners and the pirates themselves. He says the profits have drawn in "high-ranking figures" from the semi-autonomous Puntland region and members of the now defunct transitional government of Somalia. "We strongly believe that Mombasa- and UAE-based Somali businessmen are also part of the network."

Neil Roberts, a senior official with Lloyd's Market Association, and the secretary of "the war committee" of Lloyd's and the insurance industry, said: "We are certainly seeing a lot of sophistication in the way piracy has developed. Attacks are being carried out 400 to 600 miles out at sea. This shows the pirates have access to pretty detailed information of ship movements. They certainly have access to the internet and information that is helping them. The question of UAE connection is certainly talked about in the industry and people have been looking into it."

There are also concerns that some of the piracy money may have ended up with Islamist militants both in Somalia and abroad. However this has not been acknowledged because shipping companies would be breaking laws on funding terrorism by paying ransoms.

Stephen Askins, senior partner with the law firm Ince & Co, which specialises in the subject, said: "Current anti-terrorist laws make it illegal to make payment to those who carry out such acts motivated by politics or ideology.

"This does not apply to victims of extortion in criminal cases. We know the US State Department is looking at upgrading piracy to a possible political act but this will make it very difficult for shipping companies to free the many members of crew who are still being held and the cargo being held as well. We know people are looking at those who are subsidising the pirates and we will have to see what happens."

Major General Julian Thompson, the chairman of Idarat and a former commander in the Royal Marines, added: "What we can say is that these people are not just fishermen who have taken up a bit of piracy as a hobby. The people in ultimate charge of some of the groups have access to some pretty good information and they are well organised. Dubai seems to be the place which has a part in this."

Dubai is just a harbinger of things to come for sovereign debt

Jeremy Warner
Telegraph
Watch out. This may be just the beginning. In the scale of things, the debt problems of Dubai are little more than a flea bite. Dubai’s sovereign debts total “just” $80bn, which counts for nothing against the trillions being raised by advanced economies to plug fiscal deficits.

Small wonder, though, that this minor tremor has sent such shock waves around the wider capital markets. The fear is that threatened default in this tiny desert kingdom is just a harginger of things to come for government debt markets as a whole. According to new estimates by Moody’s, the credit rating agency, the total stock of sovereign debt worldwide will have risen by nearly 50 per cent between 2007 and 2010 to $15.3 trillion. The great bulk of this increase comes not from irrelevant little states like Dubai, but from the big advanced economies – America, Europe, and Japan.

Perversely, they are for the time being beneficiaries of the “flight to safety” that trouble in Dubai has sparked. Government bond yields in the major advanced economies have fallen in response to the crisis in the Gulf. If experience of the banking crisis, when investors removed their money from one bank only to find that the one they had put it into looked just as dodgy, is anything to go by, this effect will not last.

Up until now, markets have assumed that the ruinous fiscal cost of addressing the financial and economic crisis was probably just about affordable to the major economies. That view may be about to be challenged.

I’m going to be writing more about the fallout for Dubai and its implications for the advanced economies in tomorrow’s paper.

Keiser on Dubai: the World is entering Phase Two of the global economic crisis

Fresh fears over the size of Dubai's debt have sent shock waves through international markets, with major stocks and oil prices falling sharply. Dubai World, the country's largest conglomerate, wants to suspend payment on its sixty billion dollar debts until next May at the earliest. RT's financial contributor Max Keiser says the World is entering the Phase Two of the global economic crisis.

Dubai World may be forced into a fire sale of assets

Image via Wikipedia

timesonline
The Government of Dubai said on Wednesday that it was seeking a standstill on debt repayments for Dubai World, the vast conglomerate that bought P&O (minus the American ports) for £3.9 billion in 2006.

Dubai World has liabilities of $60 billion (£36 billion) and the standstill announcement, made just before most of the Arab world stopped work for the Eid religious festival, has stunned stock and credit markets.

The standstill raises the possibility that Dubai World could default on its debt. The fear in Western markets is that banks risk losing billions, causing more paralysis in the lending markets. Dubai World’s difficulties also raise the prospect that it may be forced into a fire sale of its assets, which include some famous names in the UK. Leisurecorp, one of the many subdivisions within Dubai World, bought Turnberry, the golf course that hosted this year’s Open Championship, for £55 million last year. It also owns the Chris Evert tennis centres and more than 200 golf courses across the US — all assets that could be sold quickly to help to repay debt back home.

Dubai World’s Istithmar investment fund has $3.5 billion in businesses as diverse as Irish textbook publishers and aerospace companies. Last year Istithmar also bought a 20 per cent stake in Cirque du Soleil and the Canadian circus performers have since established a permanent base in Dubai.

In the less glamorous world of ports, DP World became the third-largest operator globally after its acquisition of P&O. It owns Dubai’s Jebel Ali port and various other container terminals around the world.

In Britain DP World operates container terminals at Tilbury, near London, and Southampton, and is building a port called London Gateway. Many of the goods that are imported into Europe are, therefore, transferred through ports owned or operated by Dubai — the source of US concern when the P&O deal was struck. The Arabian group bowed to pressure after buying P&O and sold the American ports to another company. Dubai World yesterday ring-fenced DP World from the rest of the company’s debts. This was seen as an attempt to protect the profitable ports division from potential creditors.

It is Nakheel, Dubai World’s property developer, that has been causing the difficulties. The company, which built the Palm Islands in the Gulf, was due to repay a $4 billion Islamic bond on December 14. Most investors had assumed that there would be no difficulty doing so as Dubai World, the Government of Dubai and Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Dubai’s billionaire ruler, were assumed to be supporting the developer. It now appears that nobody has the money to repay or refinance the bond and so the other $56 billion of Dubai World’s liabilities are also at risk.

This triggered a run on international bank stocks as investors worried about their exposure to Dubai World, which accounts for nearly three quarters of Dubai’s state debt. Falling share prices wiped £14 billion off the UK banking sector alone.

Credit Suisse has estimated that European banks could have €40 billion (£36 billion) in loans to Dubai and much of this could be at risk if the Gulf emirate defaults. Banks including HSBC and Royal Bank of Scotland have helped to finance Dubai’s acquisitions and are now on the hook if the state cannot repay its debts.

Dubai enjoyed a bubble that made the boom years in the UK seem like postwar rationing. But the boom was built on debt and when credit markets tightened and the emirate’s growth slowed the property bubble burst. Prices have fallen by up to 60 per cent and more than 400 construction projects worth more than $300 billion have been shut down or postponed.

Many expatriates facing negative equity and ballooning credit card bills have skipped the country rather than face debtors’ prison and Dubai’s reputation has taken a battering.

If Dubai is forced to raise money to meet its debt repayments, the impact will be felt far wider than Cirque du Soleil and Turnberry golf course.

In recent years, the various investment companies owned by Sheikh Mohammed and the Government of Dubai have been buying up numerous Western assets. Dubai International Capital, the $12 billion sovereign wealth fund, bought Travelodge, the budget hotel chain. It also has a 16 per cent stake in Merlin Entertainments, which owns the London Eye, Madame Tussauds, Legoland and Thorpe Park.

Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al-Maktoum, of Dubai’s Supreme Fiscal Committee, said that the Government acted in full knowledge of how the markets would react and that further information would be given next week.

Gold Krugerrands Run Out

Image via Wikipedia

Patrick A. Heller
For some time, I have been warning that apparently plentiful supplies of gold and silver bullion-priced coins and ingots could quickly evaporate. Last Thursday we saw the first signs of a looming shortage of physical metals when just about all U.S. bullion wholesalers were unable to accept orders for the South Africa Krugerrand. One primary distributor said they expected coins in a few weeks, which I think means that they are waiting for a shipment of freshly minted coins from the South Africa Mint. My own company had to discontinue accepting new orders until we could lock in a supply.

Tens of millions of Krugerrands have been struck since they were introduced in 1967. They are not rare. If demand for physical gold is so strong (and the World Gold Council last week reported that global third quarter demand was 15 percent higher than the second quarter) that they are no longer available, we could quickly see a domino effect where other gold and silver bullion-priced products also become sold out.

We may see some temporary price dips this week as the gold and silver options expire. However, I fear that there is little time to lock in physical precious metals at reasonable premiums for quick delivery.

D225G Ukraine Norway Link and China Spread

Recombinomics Commentary 14:15
November 25, 2009
The same mutation has been found in both fatal and mild cases elsewhere, including in Brazil, Japan, Mexico, Ukraine, and the United States, said the WHO.

WHO's spokeswoman in Beijing, Vivian Tan, said the agency is aware of three such cases in China that occurred in June and July that were similar to the cases being investigated in Norway. Tan said WHO had no information on the cases mentioned in the Xinhua report Wednesday.

There is no evidence the mutated swine flu virus is circulating widely in the world, Tan said, but since it has been linked to deaths in Norway and elsewhere, investigators are focusing on whether this mutation could be a marker for more severe disease.

The above comments are associated with a report of eight D225G isolates with in China. Genbank has three of the sequences, as noted earlier. The increase in examples to eight is not surprising since D225G was in four of four fatal cases in Ukraine and reports from Norway cited detection in three isolates, 2 fatal and 1 severe case who had recovered.

However, 25 HA sequences deposited at Genbank had an HA sequence that contained D225G, A/Norway/2924/2009, but also had the wild type sequence, raising concerns that D225G was circulating as a mixture that was most easily detected in lung samples, because the D225G was more than a "marker". It is a polymorphisms that was found in 1918 and 1919 samples which were well characterized for receptor binding properties, which indicated the change conferred increased binding to gal 2,3 receptors which are present in lung.

Concerns that this receptor binding domain change was widely circulating were increased because an HA marker on the Norway isolate with D225G was found on additional isolates in Norway, and worldwide (see list here). This marker was also in the HA sequences from the fatal cases in Ukraine. Full sequences from one of the Norway isolates, A/Norway/3364-2/2009, were deposited, and a marker on the NA sequence matched isolates with the HA marker, linking this broader set of isolate from Norway with the Ukraine sequences, which also had the NA marker, as did multiple other isolates (see list here).

These associations link Ukraine to Norway, but the D225G polymorphism has jumped onto multiple genetic backgrounds, which are widespread, increasing concerns the D225G is circulating undetected because it is concentrated in lung tissues and is poorly represented in nasopharyngeal swabs. Release of full sequences from China, as well as Norway, would be useful.

Ukraine Dead Approach 400 - D225G Spreads
Recombinomics Commentary 23:30
November 24, 2009
1,679,237 Influenza/ARI

99,661 Hospitalized

397 Dead

The above figures from the latest daily update from the Ukraine Ministry of Health support a decline in the rate of increases of cases and deaths, but the total is now almost 400 fatalities (see map). The spread was likely slowed by the country-wide closing of schools along with warmer weather. However, it is likely that the virus will return as temperatures drop and the traditional flu season begins, although it is unclear if seasonal flu will be in circulation in 2010.

The receptor binding domain change, D225G, was in four of four sequence from fatal cases, raising concerns that the 2,3 alpha specificity of D225G drove the H1N1 to the lungs and the total destruction. Three patients in Norway were said to also have D225G, and two of the three died while the third had been in serious condition. 25 HA sequences from Norway were deposited at Genbank, but only one had D225G, and it was a mixture. In Brazil both patients with D225G in lung samples had died, and the case in China had been in serious condition.

However, the severity of the infection may be related to the ratio of sequences with and without D255G, as well as viral load, because milder cases involving D225G have also been reported in the United States and Hong Kong.

More detail on additional cases, including sequences from upper and lower respiratory tract from the same patient would be useful.

Major Gold Melt Up Coming

Before It's News
A highly trustworthy bond trader friend in New York just sent this to me, regarding the recent up move in the gold markets and how he expects this trend to continue. (By the way, the term "Melt Up" was coined by my good friend Thom Calandra.):

the CFTC is about to regulate the position sizes of the major commercials in various commodities, gold included. Apparently, there are a bunch of bullion banks, JP Morgan, and DB who are short a boat load of contracts, and if there (sic) positions need to be cut back, then that could create a squeeze...

For those of us who don't speak Wall Street, the CFTC is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which is charged by the government with the regulation of the commodity futures markets. If Deutsche Bank (DB) and JP Morgan are short gold, that means they will have to go on the open market to acquire gold to pay off their end of futures contracts. The squeeze is created when people who owe on contracts have to go out to the open market to buy the gold they need to make good on their contractual obligations. This drives the price of gold much higher.

a story today how Russia came out and said they bt gold last month helped run the tables...

This is from a Reuters story reported at Mineweb and other outlets. Central banks are now accumulating gold and whatever overhang effect the IMF's threats to unload more of their gold stock pile had in the past are effectively gone, as we reported here at Before It's News. There just isn't enough gold for every one in the world to put all their money into it -- at $1170. There's plenty of gold to go around -- at a much higher price, say $8,000 per ounce or $16,000 per ounce.

hedge funds like einhorns greenlight capital says they have moved from the etf to physical gold...

I had heard this. They got out of the GLD ETF, installed their own vault in New Jersey and are accumulating a pile of gold there.

and john paulson is out there marketing a gold fund... real money is getting behind this trade... open interest still is rising... and the charts are starting to look near vertical

Things are starting to accelerate in the gold market. Once the hedge funds jump into gold as a momentum play, it will start to move even higher in a self fulfilling prophecy.

Review of evidence serving as confirmation of the tungsten gold bar story

Jim Willie
This is inductive reasoning, at the basic level. The London and New York metals exchanges cannot complete delivery of any order over one metric tonne without fresh assay reports. Trust has been shattered. This was never required before, but is now. Why is that? Could it be that Hong Kong's revelation of 5600 tungsten bars tungsten bars (fake gold) was true, verified, and spread via a global alert? Yes, clearly! Assayers the world over are unavailable. They are all tied up as bullion bankers, sovereign wealth fund managers, lesser central banks, and individual billionaires are scrambling to verify their gold holdings. The assayers were entirely available two months ago, but not now. Why is that? Could it be that Hong Kong's revelation of 5600 tungsten bars tungsten bars (fake gold) were true, verified, and spread via a global alert? Yes, clearly!

The Canadian Mint has released information that admits to 17.5 thousand troy ounces of gold and other precious metals missing, whose estimated value is $15.3 million. No credible explanation has been offered for the missing inventory. These are not lamps, boxes of paper, crates of machine tools, floor tile, stereo sets, or power tools sitting in inventory. These are gold bars. Or were they tungsten bars? Permit the Jackass to surmise that the Canadian Mint were interrupted in their coin production process. They poured what they thought were gold bars into a cauldron, but since tungsten melts at 8000 degrees, and gold melts at 2200 degrees, the cauldron soup was lumpy with tungsten cheese. Instead of admitting they held and discovered 17.5 thousand ounces of tungsten, sure to rile the Wall Street boys, sure to turn the gold market upside down more than already, sure to invite severe scrutiny to many bankers who already face criticism (but not prosecution) over mortgage bond fraud, THEY JUST SAY IT IS MISSING !!! Just where did it go, Ottawa? Did some high level bankers (surely not Goldman Sachs) borrow it or steal it? Maybe it went to an industrial supplier that specializes in zinc, tin, copper, lead, and tungsten!!! See the National Post article (CLICK HERE). It seems the B.S. story of lost gold invites the least criticism, scrutiny, and follow through, amazingly. Theft and fraud is rampant, and the name of the game. Of course, incompetence, and clumsiness are more acceptable than corruption and collusion.

The end result of all the extra authentication processes, the absence of available assayers. the missing gold at mints, and the scattered reports of tungsten gold that have this week extended to at least on European bank location in addition to Hong Kong, is less actual verifiable gold bullion in the hands of people that trade it. In other words, THE GOLD SHORTAGE IS MORE REVEALED AND EXPOSED. Notice lastly, the no Hong Kong banker denied the story of discovering tungsten bars with gold plating. Instead, the story proliferated to a global examining of gold inventory. Notice also that no Depositor bullion bank invited investigators inside for a closer look at inventory, after doubt and lost confidence within the system occurred. These are all tell-tale coincident signs, indirect evidence in support of the tungsten salted bars and the entire story. One has to be with a military intelligence background not to see it.

GOLD EXPLOSION COMING

Gold continues to log new highs. The market forces are powerful. The corrupt cords are being severed. The bottom of the barrels are being scoured for physical gold. Investors and investment firms want some real assets instead of mountains of paper assets. Paper piles are burning. A gold price explosion is coming. They cannot stop the gold locomotive. Monday this week was gold futures options expiration. The expiry was met the previous Thursday and Friday last week with gold closing at the highs for the day, and on Monday with a 12-15 point upward thrust. Pain is being felt in a big way with the gold cartel from their suppression game that backfires. Those two days ending last week formed daily bullish hammers, very bullish signals, identified by a high open, intraday prices much lower, but with a strong high close. Hey London, Hey New York: Open vise, insert nether stones, squeeze, and invite the dogs to feed off the floor. The pressure is on. The lack of real gold is palpable. the price rises. Heads will soon roll.

Exchange officials of middle rank will be the first led away in handcuffs, not by the FBI, not by the CFTC, but by state authorities and perhaps federal marshalls. The federales are part of the syndicate (lack of) law enforcement. Why middle level guys? Because they will offer evidence and testimony against the targeted higher level officials. Many people like myself wish for a much broader exposure of criminal behavior, some prosecutions, some justice, and an end to the Age of Impunity in the Untied States that comes with the Fascist Business Model. We will find little satisfaction, except for the breakdown of the Gold-Dollar balance beam in progress. The gold & silver prices might be the main satisfaction felt. The USDollar decline might be another satisfaction. Look for strange and misleading inaccurate stories to come from the metals exchanges as they break down. Also look for something to pop up with all those guys from last August who appealed for asylum in Europe, bearing boxes of Wall Street fraud evidence. That is saved for the Hat Trick Letter reports.

Gallup Poll: Obama's Approval Among Whites Down to 39%

Jeffrey M. Jones
Support has declined much more among whites than among nonwhites

by Jeffrey M. Jones

PRINCETON, NJ -- Since the start of his presidency, U.S. President Barack Obama's approval rating has declined more among non-Hispanic whites than among nonwhites, and now, fewer than 4 in 10 whites approve of the job Obama is doing as president.

Obama last week fell below 50% approval in Gallup Daily tracking for the first time in his presidency, both in daily three-day rolling averages and in Gallup Daily tracking results aggregated weekly.

"The only subgroup showing a greater change than whites is Republicans, down 24 points since Obama's first full week in office."

In his first full week in office (Jan. 26-Feb. 1), an average of 66% of Americans approved of the job Obama was doing, including 61% of non-Hispanic whites and 80% of nonwhites. In the most recent week, spanning Nov. 16-22 interviewing, his approval rating averaged 49% overall, 39% among whites, and 73% among nonwhites. Thus, since the beginning of his presidency, his support has dropped 22 points among whites, compared with a 7-point loss among nonwhites.

Given the 17-point drop in his approval rating among all U.S. adults, it follows that Obama's support has declined among all major demographic and attitudinal subgroups, with one notable exception -- blacks.

Blacks' support for Obama has averaged 93% during his time in office, and has been at or above 90% nearly every week during his presidency. Thus, part of the reason Obama's support among nonwhites has not dropped as much as his support among other groups is because of his consistent support from blacks. (With Hispanics' approval rating down five points, greater declines among Asians, Native Americans, and those of mixed races account for his total seven-point drop among nonwhites.)

The accompanying table shows how Obama's approval rating has changed by subgroup from his first full week in office to the most recent week. The only subgroup showing a greater change than whites is Republicans, down 24 points during this time. Independents' approval of Obama has declined nearly as much (down 18 points), whereas support among Democrats is down only 6 points.

Obama's strongest support comes from blacks, Democrats, and liberals -- all of whom give him approval ratings above 80%. He maintains solid support of more than 60% from nonwhites, Hispanics, and young adults.

A Closer Look at Race and Party

One reason Obama may have maintained support among blacks is their overwhelming affiliation with the Democratic Party. This is not a sufficient explanation, though, because Obama's approval rating has dropped among Democrats even as it has held steady among blacks.

In fact, it appears as though Obama's relatively small loss in support among Democrats has come exclusively from white Democrats. In late January/early February, Obama averaged 87% approval among white Democrats and 90% approval among nonwhite Democrats. Now, his approval rating among white Democrats is 76%, down 11 points, but is essentially the same (if not a little higher) at 92% among nonwhite Democrats.

Bottom Line

Obama won the Democratic nomination and the presidency with strong support from blacks and other racial minorities. In fact, according to exit polls and Gallup's final pre-election estimates, he won the election despite losing by double digits to John McCain among white voters.

Those patterns of support seem to have persisted into his presidency, with his support among whites starting out lower and dropping faster than his support among nonwhites. And though he maintains widespread loyalty among Democrats, the small loss in support he has seen from his fellow partisans seems to be exclusively from white Democrats.

It is important to note that this pattern is not unique to Obama. For example, Bill Clinton averaged 55% job approval during his presidency, including 52% among whites but a much higher 76% among nonwhites and 82% among blacks.

GLD ETF WARNING

Image via Wikipedia

Before It's News
This is potentially chilling news for the gold markets -- word of tungsten filled gold bars coming from the Market Oracle site. As Before It's News has warned, there are many issues with "owning" any gold that is a paper product, as opposed to physical gold and if this story is true, you could see a huge spike in the price of gold in the near future as people scramble to own the real thing. Two issues have come to the forefront, according to Rob Kirby at Kirby Analytics...

1] - irregularities in the publication of the gold ETF - GLD’s bar list from Sept. 25 – Oct.14 where the length of the bar list went from 1,381 pages to under 200 pages and then back up to 800 or so pages.

2] - reports of 400 oz. “good delivery” bricks of gold found gutted and filled with tungsten within the confines of LBMA approved vaults in Hong Kong.

The reason to use tungsten to fill bars, as opposed to say lead or silver is based entirely on Physics and Economics 101. Tungsten, density of 19.35 g/cm³ is a near perfect match for the density of gold at 19.32 g/cm³. A bar of tungsten coated with gold would be very close to the same size and weight as a real solid gold bar. The main reason to use tungsten is the cost, which at $20 per pound is a small fraction of gold's $16,000 per pound. Large 400 ounce cast bars are easiest to fake because they can be cast, but coins would need to be stamped, something difficult to achieve with tungsten owing to its legendary hardness -- it's got a very high melting point and is difficult to work. Gold is soft, malleable and ductile, which is why it has been treasured for millennia. It will be difficult to spot the fake gold bars without sophisticated assaying equipment.

Here's where the story gets fun...

The amount of “salted tungsten” gold bars in question was allegedly between 5,600 and 5,700 – 400 oz – good delivery bars [roughly 60 metric tonnes].

This was apparently all highly orchestrated by an extremely well financed criminal operation.

Within mere hours of this scam being identified – Chinese officials had many of the perpetrators in custody.

And here’s what the Chinese allegedly uncovered:

Roughly 15 years ago – during the Clinton Administration [think Robert Rubin, Sir Alan Greenspan and Lawrence Summers] – between 1.3 and 1.5 million 400 oz tungsten blanks were allegedly manufactured by a very high-end, sophisticated refiner in the USA [more than 16 Thousand metric tonnes]. Subsequently, 640,000 of these tungsten blanks received their gold plating and WERE shipped to Ft. Knox and remain there to this day. I know folks who have copies of the original shipping docs with dates and exact weights of “tungsten” bars shipped to Ft. Knox.

The balance of this 1.3 million – 1.5 million 400 oz tungsten cache was also plated and then allegedly “sold” into the international market.

Apparently, the global market is literally “stuffed full of 400 oz salted bars”.

If the market is stuffed full of 400 oz. salted bars, what are the chances that the GLD ETF has more than their share? Their prospectus contains this legal out...

Gold bars allocated to the Trust in connection with the creation of a Basket may not meet the London Good Delivery Standards and, if a Basket is issued against such gold, the Trust may suffer a loss. Neither the Trustee nor the Custodian independently confirms the fineness of the gold bars allocated to the Trust in connection with the creation of a Basket. The gold bars allocated to the Trust by the Custodian may be different from the reported fineness or weight required by the LBMA’s standards for gold bars delivered in settlement of a gold trade, or the London Good Delivery Standards, the standards required by the Trust. If the Trustee nevertheless issues a Basket against such gold, and if the Custodian fails to satisfy its obligation to credit the Trust the amount of any deficiency, the Trust may suffer a loss.

...it's buyer beware in the gold market, no question. Work with a reputable dealer and own physical coins. Should you intend to take delivery of COMEX 400 ounce bars, send them directly to a trustworthy assay lab to verify you are getting what you paid for. If even half of this turns out to be true, the price of real, physical gold could rocket.

UPDATE: The Central Bank in Ethiopia discovered a fake gold bar problem a couple of years ago, as this article in the Museum of Hoaxes attests.

Anti-Obama Billboard: "Birth Certificate Prove it!"

KDVR Denver
Call it Freedom of Speech. A billboard recently erected in Wheat Ridge compares President Barack Obama to a terrorist and questions his U.S. citizenship.

The billboard, located at 4855 Miller Road, shows two cartoonish images of Obama wearing a Muslim turban and reads "PRESIDENT or JIHAD?"

It also says "BIRTH CERTIFICATE - PROVE IT!" alluding to the conspiracy theory which claims Barack Obama was born in Kenya rather than Hawaii, which would disqualify him for the office of President.

The words "WAKE UP AMERICA! REMEMBER FT. HOOD!" appear on the bottom of the billboard.

The sign belongs to a car dealership.

"Since Fort Hood, I've had it," owner Phil Wolf told FOX 31 News Friday. "You can't suggest things. You can't profile. You gotta call a spade a spade."

"Everything I have read about Mr. Obama points right to the fact that he is a Muslim. And that is the agenda of what Muslim is all about. It's about anti-American, it's about anti-Christianity," Wolf said.

The Anti-Defamation League condemned the sign, as did AM760 radio host David Sirota, who discussed the sign and interviewed Wolf on his program Friday morning.

"It's out of control," Sirota said. "This conservative hatred of Barack Obama is out of contol, and this brings together all those strands of it: the racism, the anti-Muslim fervor. It's one thing to criticise the president on health care, or Wall Street reform, or immigration. But this is outrageous. And I think it's a fair question to ask why these questions about religion and ancestry are being directed so viciously at the first African-American President of the United States."

While the ADL issued a statement calling the billboard an exploitation of the Ft. Hood shootings that is "divisive and offensive, and perpetuates hateful and harmful stereotypes about Muslims", prominent conservatives have been silent thus far.

"That could suggest that conservative leaders are afraid to confront the extreme fringe of their base," Sirota said. "Or it suggests they actually condone this message. Either way, it's disturbing."

Sirota is an unabashed liberal, but not all self-identified conservatives who drove past the sign Friday disagree with him.

"I'm not concerned with that at all," said Linda Alexander, of Golden, in regard to the dispute over President Obama's American citizenship. "He was elected, he's the president -- that's it, as far as I'm concerned. Some people just can't accept that, obviously."

But Keith Walters, another passing driver, saw nothing wrong with the billboard.

"I can't honestly say he's a Jihadist, but there's a lot of things that are questionable," Walters said. "The whole birth certificate controversy. From what I've read, there's no proof Obama isn't a Muslim. And I don't believe there's any racism [in the billboard]. I think that should be a question asked to any president who -- they have some questionable backgrounds."

Supporters of the birth certificate theory, known as 'Birthers,' believe the Certification of Live Birth produced by the state of Hawaii is a forgery. (view the birth certificate)

Superfund Says Gold to Rise to $2,000 Amid ‘Massive’ Inflation

Kim Kyoungwha

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may rise to a record $2,000 an ounce in the next three years as investors hedge against “massive” inflation sparked by governments printing money, according to Superfund Financial Singapore Pte’s Aaron Smith.

“In the next few years, after the deflation cycle, we’ll see massive inflation,” Managing Director Smith, 30, said in an interview. “Soon, when you go to buy a cup of coffee, you’ll pay $20 or $30 because the dollar won’t be worth anything.”

The company’s Superfund Green Gold A Fund, which has more than doubled since its inception in 2005, has lost 15.6 percent this year because of higher volatility, said Smith, who joined in 2002. Gold rose to an all-time high this month as governments including the U.S. boosted debt to combat the global recession.

“When the U.S. dollar crashes, all the paper currencies have to crash, otherwise if their currencies are too strong, their economies will be weak,” said Smith, who issued similar gold forecasts in May and earlier this month. “Another excellent buying opportunity for investors is silver.”

Gold for immediate delivery, which touched a high of $1,070.80 an ounce on Oct. 14, traded at $1,039.32 at midday in Singapore. The metal has strengthened 18 percent this year, while the Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the dollar’s strength, fell 6.4 percent.

Gold Forecasts

Smith joins investors including Shayne McGuire, director of global research at the Teacher Retirement System of Texas, and Jim Rogers in forecasting higher gold prices. Pension funds will increase gold holdings as currencies decline, McGuire said on Oct. 22. Gold will probably top $2,000 in the next decade as the dollar weakens, Rogers said Oct. 7.

Superfund, founded in 1995 and backed by $1.6 billion in assets, specializes in so-called managed futures, using its own trading system to generate buy and sell calls on stock, bond, currency and commodity futures. Still, the company’s flagship Superfund A, which gained 35.4 percent last year, has lost 24 percent this year, Smith said.

The ratio of silver to gold, currently at 62.35, will be “cut in half” in the next three to five years as millions of people in South Asia and China buy the metal as an alternative because they can no longer afford gold, Smith said. Silver has soared 46 percent this year to $16.65 an ounce.

Government Taking Newborn DNA Samples Without Permission

Government Taking Newborn DNA Samples Without Permission

Desperate Retailers Offer to Buy Used Goods in Cash for Clunkers Spin

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

MARK GLOVER
McClatchy News
It sounds surreal, but it's true: Private industry is rushing to adopt the marketing strategy of the federal government.

Companies of all stripes are now putting their own spin on the government's ``cash for clunkers'' program, offering trade-in deals on furniture, computers, appliances, hearing aids and just about every other item that can be sold.

Their motivation is simple -- the possibility of big sales in short order. ``Cash for clunkers'' generated about 700,000 new car sales during its run from July 27 to Aug. 24 and had thousands across the nation ready to exchange their old clunker for a shiny new car and a less overwhelming debt.

Page through any newspaper or surf the Web. It's hard to miss the replicated theme in ad after ad. It is all over the media. A simple Google search of ``cash for'' possibilities turned up scores of clunker promotions being offered by businesses from coast to coast.

The clunker mimics included: ``cash for laptops, cash for cells, cash for couches'' and even ``cash for appliances.''

Hollywood Eyes recently held a ``cash for clunker eyeglasses'' trade-in. People were able to get $25 off a new pair of glasses if they donated their old ones. The store is giving their specs to a local Lions Club, which refurbishes and distributes them to needy Central Americans.

``Even if people don't come in the store, they look at our clunker sign in the window and laugh,'' said manager Daniella Bonilla. ``People are happy to get any kind of discounts these days.''

The national Sephora beauty store chain also had a two-week ``cash for beauty clunkers'' event, giving customers $10 off a purchase of $50 or more if they brought in five old items.

"A lot of people took advantage of it,'' said Krystal Killion, one of the managers at Sephora in Fort Lauderdale's Galleria Mall. The clunker cosmetics ``went to the junkyard,'' she said, ``just like the clunker cars did.''

HANDBAG TRADE-IN

Dillard's also recently held a Handbag and Watch Trade-In Event. Through Nov. 1, lightly used, clean handbags, wallets and watches were being exchanged for store discounts, which ranged from $15 to $50 depending on the value of the donated item. The collected items were donated to local charities.

Babies R Us and Men's Wearhouse also recently offered similar promotions.

Jumping on the ``cash for clunkers'' bandwagon is a smart move, according to some analysts.

"It's a cool new marketing strategy, and ``cash for clunkers'' worked. This is a great strategy for getting people's attention,'' said Mike Gatti, executive director of the Washington-based Retail Advertising and Marketing Association, a division of the National Retail Federation.

Gatti said the enormous publicity generated by ``cash for clunkers'' works to the advantage of companies offering clunker-like programs.

CASH FOR GOLD

But in truth, there are already South Florida businesses willing to buy or even consign used items for store credit or cash on the spot.

Across from the Dillard's store at the Miami International Mall, signs at CR Jewelers announces it's willing to ``buy your gold and diamonds.'' The price offered depends on the purity of the gold or diamonds.

``If gold is broken, dirty or in poor condition, it does not matter because the jewelry will be melted,'' said Donald Weinburg, an employee. ``Broken jewelry is just as good as new.''

CR Jewelers uses its ``cash for gold'' program to draw in new shoppers and build relationships with customers, according to Weinburg.

``With the economic situation as it is, people find themselves short on money for necessities like rent and utility bills,'' Weinburg said, ``so trading outdated or unwanted jewelry for cash helps lessen the severity of the recession.''

Plato's Closet, in Pembroke Pines, offers ``cash for clothes'' every day. Representatives at Plato's Closet buy lightly used clothes, shoes, purses, belts, hats, jewelry and movies that appeal mostly to younger shoppers.

The computerized prices offered are based on style, condition and brand. All the merchandise in stock comes from items people have brought into the store.

Steven Munzer, the franchise owner, guarantees customers will find themselves ``spending a fraction of what they would spend in the mall' for used items that are clean, in good condition and are top-name brands.

CASH FOR MUSIC

In Miami Beach, Uncle Sam's Music buys used CD's, records and music supplies in their original cases or sleeves.

Lisa Teger-zhen, who is in charge of the buying operation, recommends calling beforehand because the store can only buy a specific number of items per day.

But during the tough economy, Teger-zhen said Uncle Sam's offers an inexpensive alternative for music fanatics. ``There are tons and tons of people who are broke right now and need to get in the right position,'' she said.

CASH FOR BOOKS

Is your house crowded with books you no longer read -- or collectibles and antiques? Julius Ser, who opened Fifteenth Street Books in Coral Gables in 2001, may have a solution.

The shop, which specializes in used books and rare collectibles, may be interested in your excess.

``Whatever we feel we like, we buy,'' said Ser. The shop's main interests, however, are books dealing with art, Latin America, first editions or fiction -- and antiques.

Prices are set depending on rarity of the book, genre and condition. You can also pick up extra reading material at Fifteenth Street Books for as low as $1 per book.

So look around your home. Clean out all the overflowing drawers and bookshelves and make cash on the spot. Or better yet, remember the adage: out with the old and in with the new or semi-new.

Fed Face-Off: Peter Schiff Goes Toe-to-Toe With Alan Blinder, Jim Bullard

Tech Ticker
Peter Schiff's views as an author, investor and free market idealist are no secret: Abolish the Fed, buy gold and avoid the dollar. With that in mind, Sunday night was something of a dream come true for the President of Euro Pacific Capital. See Video

Thanks To Princeton University's Business Today, Schiff went head to head in New York City with St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard and former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alan Blinder in a panel titled, "Challenges of the Global Slowdown: Redefining Government Regulation."

It might as well have been called "Schiff Blames the Fed for the Financial Crisis."

We caught up with Schiff after the panel to discuss some of the points mentioned in greater detail. (Click here for our one-on-one intereview with Bullard from the confab.)

Schiff on capitalism

• Capitalism is not the problem: "Just like during the 1930's, capitalism got a bad rap for all the damage that government did. Every time government policy interferes with capitalism and then creates a problem it's always capitalism that comes under fire not the government interference that led to the problem," he says. Schiff predicts this behavior will lead to the next calamity, a currency crisis which he claims will be even bigger than the one "we think we've solved."

Schiff on the Stock Market

• The stock market rally is an illusion: "It looks like stocks are going up but on a real basis they're going down" when compared to the value of gold, he says, predicting that trend will continue until the Dow trades on a one-to-one ratio with gold. (Today, the Dow is worth about 9 ounces of gold, down from a peak of 43 in 2000.)

Schiff on Gold

• Gold is not a bubble. "It's a great buy, I think it's going higher." Earlier this month, India's central bank bought 200 metric tons of gold for more than $1000 an ounce; Schiff believes other central bankers will follow suit which should help drive prices higher for years to come.

Climate Change Bombshell: Dr. Tim Ball on the hacked CRU emails

Retired climatologist Dr. Tim Ball joins us to discuss the significance of the recently leaked emails and documents from the Climate Research Unit at East Anglia University which expose deceit, duplicity and collusion between climate researchers to maintain the fraud of the manmade global warming theory. These emails reveal stunning behind-the-scenes details about how this fraud has been developed and perpetuated, and Dr. Ball shares his insights on what they show.

Three in 10 Americans say they or someone in their household has lost a job

Image via Wikipedia

GARY LANGER/ABC
When the pink slip comes, trouble follows – financial, but emotional as well. Three in 10 Americans in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll say they or someone in their household has lost a job in the past year -- a new high. And the impacts can be devastating: Beyond financial hardship, large numbers report anger, stress and depression as a result.

Click here for PDF with charts and questionnaire.

Given the state of the economy – 10.2 percent unemployment, 17.5 percent including those who've given up looking – "surprise" is the least common reaction measured in this survey. Nonetheless, more than half of those who report a layoff in their household, 52 percent, were surprised by it.

Other emotional responses range higher: Nearly all – 90 percent – report personal stress as a result of the layoff. Sixty-two percent, anger. And 58 percent, depression. As percentages of the full population, those compute to 27 percent of all Americans with stress, 19 percent angry and 17 percent suffering depression in response to the loss of a job.

There's also, of course, financial hardship: Among those who've sustained a job loss in the household, 86 percent report money trouble, and 62 percent say it's been serious.

RE-HIRE – There are some positive (or at least less negative) outcomes: Among people who report a job loss in the last year, just fewer than four in 10 say the person who'd been axed has been able to find a new job. The flipside: Of them, 51 percent say it's for less pay.

Just 15 percent report finding a better-paying job; the remaining third lined up new work for about the same money.

When new jobs are unavailable, the pain is especially severe: Depression soars to 70 percent among people laid off and still out of work, compared with 40 percent of those who've lost one job but found another. Experiencing a "great deal" of financial hardship, naturally, also soars among those who haven't found another job. So does pessimism about the economy's future. More...

Damage Control Over $15Million in Missing Gold Royal Canadian Mint

Image via Wikipedia

Jack Branswell and Phil Couvrette
Canwest News Service
Mint went into damage control over missing gold

OTTAWA - Faced with what may prove to be a huge gold heist right out from underneath its nose, the Royal Canadian Mint ordered polls and consulted with a high-powered Ottawa public relations firm as it worked on damage control, access to information documents show.

What is clear in 66 pages of notes released to Canwest News Service under access-to-information law is that as news of the missing 17,514 troy ounces of gold and other precious metals -- with an estimated value of $15.3-million -- leaked out, the mint was keen to protect its reputation.

What is less clear is just what the mint's consultations with Angus Reid, which conducted at least two omnibus polls for the Crown corporation, and Hill & Knowlton Inc., the public relations firm, told the mint.

The documents are heavily edited, with the polls being blacked out entirely.

Their media notes -- they messages they tell reporters -- say the mint "is one of the most highly regarded mints in the world and has a very strong reputation." But that reputation has been under siege as the mint has been unable to account for the missing gold since last fall.

On June 9, the government announced it had told the mint to have the RCMP investigate the missing gold.

By the end of that month and in early July, the mint may not have found the gold, but it had acquired Corporate Reputation and Sponsorship Index reports from Angus Reid. The reports were called Royal Canadian Mint: Reputation to June 30 (and the second one July 14). Hill & Knowlton also weighed in with an "Issue Analysis" on at least four occasions in June and July.

It is clear through e-mails, released with the documents, that the polls are about "our reputation in the context of the metal reconciliations file."

But the polls themselves, 48 pages of data, are marked not for public release and are completely blacked out.

To explain the heavy editing, the mint cites sections of the Freedom of Information Act that allow exemptions for commercially sensitive information, information that could harm third-party dealings and negotiations and advice or recommendations the mint hasn't put into operation.

The mint also held a July 17 conference call and part of that dealt with "Reputation Management" but again, all the details were censored.

Christine Aquino, a spokeswoman for the mint, said it is normal that the documents would be so highly censored.

"The minting industry is highly competitive, therefore this type of information is deemed confidential," she said.

"It is commonplace for the mint to conduct such research on a very regular basis for a variety of reasons, including to develop new products and programs that fulfil our mandate."

The mint also would not say how much it spent on the polls or the Hill & Knowlton work.

Charles Weinberg, a professor of marketing at Sauder School of Business at the University of British Columbia, said this is a serious crisis for the mint and that getting advice on its reputation is part of managing the situation.

"Part of the critical issues are how they deal with this crisis," Weinberg said.

"Losing $15-million worth of gold is a serious amount of money, no matter how profitable the Crown corporation is or what a small percentage of the amount of gold it has.

"Generally when something goes wrong, a tainted product or something like that, the first thing that the organization has to do is sort of acknowledge the mistake that was made and show that they're trying to understand what the cause was and providing appropriate corrective action."

The mint doesn't just make coins for Canada, it has international clients, and Mr. Weinberg said it would also be acutely aware that it has to maintain its reputation with them, too.

But he said the issue isn't resonating with Canadians at this point.

"One of the unusual things about this is that unlike health scares where people get ill right away and there's product recalls where there's a real danger to people . . . this is a financial embarrassment but is not an immediate danger to anyone, so I think there's less heightened public attention on this than there otherwise would be."

"One of the questions, and they may be doing this, is to see whether or not this issue is actually on people's minds. The problem is going to be when the RCMP is finishing their investigation and either conclude whether they can find there was theft taking place or can't explain it either, and if it's theft they have to see if the theft is something the mint could have done something about."

He questioned why so much of the access-to-information request would have to be blacked out.

"The question is why is this such sensitive information that it can't be publicly released?"

Among other censored information in the documents is a three-page letter, dated July 7, to John Baird, the transport minister, whose department is responsible for the mint and his minister of state, Rob Merrifield.

As government department and agencies do, the mint was very closely monitoring the volume of news reports on their missing gold and tracking whether coverage was dying off or not.

"Coverage spiked once the minister announced the RCMP had been contacted. This is now truly a cross-Canada story, including in Quebec [both print and broadcast]," the documents note. But a section right after that, presumably talking about that coverage, is blocked out under the law's exemption to not release information that is advice that hasn't been acted on yet.

The mint's final report on the missing gold and other precious metals is expected to be released soon. The RCMP investigation into the case is ongoing.

Credit Default Swaps Linked to US, UK and Japan Double

David Oakley
Bets rise on rich country bond defaults
The mounting level of debt in the industrialised world is prompting a growing number of investors to use the derivatives market to bet on the chance of rich governments defaulting on bonds.

Public debt and CDS volumesThe volume of activity in sovereign credit default swaps – which measure the cost to insure against bond defaults – linked to the US, UK and Japan have doubled in the past year because of concerns about their public finances.

CDS volumes for Italy, which has one of the highest debt burdens of the developed economies, are now the highest for an individual country, according to the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation.

In contrast, the outstanding volume of CDS linked to emerging nations such as Russia, Brazil, Ukraine and Indonesia have been flat or fallen in the past 12 months as investors have become less interested in trading the risks of those countries.

In the past, the CDS market for developed countries was sluggish, because few investors saw the need to buy or sell protection against a risk of default that seemed exceedingly remote.

However, rising debt levels and growing political and economic uncertainty have created a more active market, with more investors now seeking insurance. Meanwhile, many banks are prepared to offer protection in exchange for a fee.

This fee has recently jumped, since the cost to insure the debt of developed countries has increased since the summer of last year, while the cost of insuring emerging market debt has fallen.

Gary Jenkins, head of fixed income research at Evolution, said: “The biggest single risk hanging over the bond markets is the rapid rise in public debt in the industrialised world.

“If we get to a point where the market thinks the levels of debt are unsustainable, then we will see an almighty sell-off in the government bond markets, with yields soaring. Governments need to take action to cut deficits and debt.”

Fitch Solutions, the data arm of the Fitch Group, said that there was almost as much uncertainty in the CDS market about the outlook for the developed economies and their bond markets as there was for emerging economies.

Comparisons between Italy and Brazil are often used by strategists as an example of the contrasting fortunes of the developed and emerging world.

Italy’s ratio of debt to gross domestic product is forecast to rise to 127.3 per cent in 2010.

On the other hand, Brazil’s debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to stabilise at 65.4 per cent in 2010.

Nigel Rendell, senior emerging markets strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said: “It is not surprising that investors are increasingly worried about debt in the industrialised world. Debt to GDP of more than 100 per cent is difficult to sustain.”

Naomi Klein And Joseph Stiglitz Discuss The Cause And Effect Of The Financial Crisis

Tyler Durden/ZeroHedge

Alan Greenspan's economic legacy is slowly but surely deteriorating from that of one created by a "Maestro", to the deranged hungover flashbacks of the most inept monetarst dilettante and plutocrat puppet in the history of fiat capitalism. And with ever increasing honest and truthful observations as those shared by Naomi Klein and Joseph Stiglitz in the 1 hour + program attached, courtesy of Fora TV, only the remnants of the quickly evaporating close circle of Bernanke and Co., will have anything favorable left to say for the man who took the mundane task of building bubbles and converted it into rocket science so complex that only a few people at Goldman Sachs figured out how to benefit from it. We encourage all readers to spend some time watching the program before, just like Barney Frank and other bribed politicans, deciding that changing the status quo vis-a-vis the Fed is a step in the "wrong direction."

10 minute excerpt below:

Watch the full program or select from the following clips. We would like to draw your attention to clips 2, 7, 11 and 13

01. Introduction
02. Flawed Economic Model
03. Economic Power and Ideology
04. Collapse of Trust in Legal System
05. Legal Means of Assistance
06. Effects of Bailout
07. How This Crisis Came About
08. New Unregulated Markets
09. Modern Capitalism Separates Ownership and Control
10. Control
11. Government Controlled by Banking Interest
12. Property Information System
13. Protection of Wealthy and Powerful
14. Documentation of Who Owns What
15. New Orleans Troubles
16. Foreclosures are Economic Katrinas

Long-term Unemployed at Record Levels

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Olivera Perkins
The average length of unemployment for American workers in October was nearly 27 weeks -- more than six months, the longest since the Labor Department started to keep track in 1948. The last time the average was even remotely that high was during the last major recession in the early 1980s. In July 1983, the average length of unemployment was 21 weeks.

In October nearly 36 percent of all jobless workers were considered among the long-term unemployed, according to an analysis by the National Employment Law Project, or NELP, a research and advocacy group. The second highest on record was 26 percent in 1983.

The benefits of about 500,000 Ohioans are scheduled to expire in 2010, according to the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services. About 70,000 with benefits expiring by the 2009 deadline are expected to be eligible for the extension. More...

Batch of H1N1 vaccine recalled after 36 severe reactions and 1 death

Joanna Smith
OTTAWA – A batch of swine flu vaccine is being pulled back for investigation after it appeared to cause higher rates of severe allergic reactions than other lots.

GlaxoSmithKline Inc., which is producing the Canadian order of H1N1 influenza vaccine at its plant in Ste-Foy, Que., said it asked provincial and territorial health authorities Wednesday to stop using doses from a specific lot shipment distributed late last month.

"(GlaxoSmithKline) is taking this cautionary action because (the Public Health Agency of Canada) has received a higher than expected number of reports of anaphylaxis in this lot number compared to other lots," company spokeswoman Megan Spoore said in a statement. "On an ongoing basis (GlaxoSmithKline) is working with Health Canada to ensure that each vaccine lot released to the provinces and territories consistently meets quality and safety standards."

The batch under investigation by the federal government and GlaxoSmithKline bears the lot number A80CA007A brand name Arepanrix, which is the version that contains adjuvant, a chemical additive that stretches supply and boosts immunity.

Manitoba health officials say they have noticed severe allergic reactions from the batch in question at a rate of one in 20,000, which is much higher than the normal rate of one in 100,000.

A spokesman for the Ontario health ministry said 1,500 doses of this vaccine were distributed to Ontario and sent to two public health units: Perth Health Unit and Renfrew Health Unit.

"This vaccine was not administered to any persons and is being withheld until the analysis is complete," David Jensen wrote in an email Friday.

Meanwhile, federal Health Minister Leona Aglukkaq announced during Question Period in the House of Commons Friday that provinces and territories can expect to receive 4.8 million doses of the H1N1 vaccine by the end of next week.

Ontario is expected to receive 1.86 million of those doses.

That would bring the total number of doses shipped across the country by Nov. 29 to 15.3 million.

The Public Health Agency of Canada has released its first weekly surveillance report for the H1N1 influenza pandemic vaccine since the immunization campaign began three weeks ago and the data show that from Oct. 21 to Nov. 7 – when 6.6 million doses had been shipped across the country – only 36 people experienced serious adverse events including life-threatening allergic reactions called anaphylaxis and febrile convulsions brought on by high fever.

That number includes one death from anaphylaxis that is currently being investigated and which a spokeswoman for the Quebec health ministry has confirmed was an octogenarian who died in that province two weeks ago.

"With any vaccination campaign, we expect to see some cases of serious adverse events," Dr. David Butler-Jones, Canada's chief public health officer, said at a news conference Tuesday.

"They are very rare, but they are part of all mass vaccination campaigns and we expect to see a small number of them."

The rate of serious adverse events is so far 0.54 per 100,000 doses distributed, which Butler-Jones noted is less than what is generally expected for the seasonal flu vaccine.

An additional 598 milder adverse reactions were reported during the same time period. The majority of those involved nausea, dizziness, headache, fever, vomiting and swelling or soreness at the site of the injection.

There were also several reports of allergic reactions with a range of symptoms, from hives and skin rashes to tingling lips or tongue and difficulty breathing. Most of those occurred within minutes after people received their shot in the arm and staff at the flu clinics treated them right away.

Pelosi: Wall Street Tax Must Be International

Pelosi: Wall Street Tax Must Be International

Poll: Angry U.S. Workers Intend to Look for New Jobs in 2010

What are these people thinking! With real jobless rates nearing Great Depression levels of 25 percent, they've a got a big surprise coming to them if they believe the job market will improve in 2010. They're lucky to have jobs, period.

Reuters
Nearly two-thirds of U.S. workers intend to look for new jobs next year, according to a poll released on Thursday that could indicate workers' frustration and discontent.

Sixty percent of employees polled "intend to leave" their jobs and 21 percent said "Maybe, so I'm networking," according to the survey by Right Management, a talent and career management consulting firm.

Just 13 percent said they planned to stay in their current jobs, it found. The remaining 6 percent said changing jobs was "not likely, but I've updated my resume."

"Employees are clearly expressing their pent-up frustration with how they have been treated through the downturn," said Douglas Matthews, president of Right Management, in a statement.

"While employers may have taken the necessary steps to streamline operations to remain viable, it appears many employees may have felt neglected in the process," he said. "The result is a disengaged and disgruntled work force."

Right Management, part of Manpower Inc, surveyed 904 employees, most of them in the United States, in an online poll between October 19 and November 5.